The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.
None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.
So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.
I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.
Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.
As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.
Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.
Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing is already out in limited release and the A24 title is doing pretty impressive business in its four venues before a planned August expansion. Is it doing well enough to warrant a #1 spot in the BP rankings where I’ve had it for weeks?
That is a legit question and one that I’m struggling with in this particular update. With heralded performances from Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, it certainly seems like the type of crowdpleaser that could take the top prize. This could be without Kwedar landing a directing nod as I’ve yet to have him in the top five. If that plays out, it would be a similar situation to 2021 and the CODA victory despite Sian Heder missing the directorial quintet.
The bottom line is this: the #1 position in BP for Sing Sing is tenuous. I’ve got it clinging to that number though I considered Steve McQueen’s Blitz, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Two, and Edward Berger’s Conclave (the first trailer for it dropped this week). Of course, we are only a month and change away from festival season kicking off with Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Those events always assist in clearing up the picture.
There was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2 may not make the 2024 calendar for Warner Bros. Even when I thought it was likely to release this fall, I didn’t have it pegged as a BP player. I did have Toni Collette listed as a potential Supporting Actress hopeful along with Nicholas Hoult in Actor and at the bottom of the listed 15 in Original Screenplay. I am dropping Juror for now and would certainly adjust if it does materialize on the schedule.
Speaking of Supporting Actress, we got our first glimpse of The Deliverance from Lee Daniels this week. The supernatural horror flick (out on Netflix in late August) is not your typical awards fare. However, I am listing Glenn Close as a possibility. It is Glenn Close after all and she managed an Oscar nod recently for the critically panned Hillbilly Elegy (where she also was up for a Razzie).
In other news, my constant speculation on category placement continues. Saoirse Ronan is now back to being a double nominee in my view for lead Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress for Blitz (I can’t wait until this is cleared up). Ronan’s inclusion back in the supporting derby displaces Conclave‘s Isabella Rossellini. Another unclear item is the screenplay placement for Emilia Pérez. It could be considered Adapted and that’s where I had it a few days ago, but now I’m putting it in Original Screenplay (and just barely missing a nom).
We have two significant alterations in Best Actor. While the top 3 remain the same, I am now elevating Sebastian Stan’s performance in A Different Man over Sebastian Stan’s work in The Apprentice. John David Washington (The Piano Lesson) also enters the high five for the first time. André Holland (The Actor) drops out of the quintet.
In Supporting Actor, Adam Pearson in A Different Man enters the five over Denzel Washington in Gladiator II.
You can read all the movement below for these feature length categories!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 20) (+6)
15. A Real Pain (PR: 19) (+4)
16. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. Maria (PR: 16) (-2)
19. The End (PR: 15) (-4)
20. The Fire Inside (PR: 22) (+2)
21. ADifferent Man (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Dídi (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
25. His Three Daughters (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All We Imagine as Light
Here
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (E)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+1)
10. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (E)
15. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (moved to Supporting Actress)
Zendaya, Challengers
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Actress
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (E)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (E)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 15) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)
11. The End (PR: 8) (-3)
12. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Challengers (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
I Saw the TV Glow
Juror No. 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 7) (E)
8. Hit Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Collaboration (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Original
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 3) (E)
4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Uprising (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emmanuelle (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Savages (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Most Precious of Cargoes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daughters (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: A Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frida (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Megalopolis (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Longlegs
Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blitz (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Nosferatu
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+1)
7. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 3) (-4)
8. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
“Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sing Sing (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Civil War (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Here (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Blitz (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
And that adds up to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nods:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Conclave, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
3 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Nickel Boys, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
2 Nominations
Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat, Sugarcane, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
We are beyond the midway point of 2024 so it’s time for me to forecast all feature-length film categories at the 97th Academy Awards! The result? Unsurprisingly, Dune: Part Two leads all nominees with 10 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez close behind at 9 and #1 BP selection Sing Sing at 7.
A caveat as obviously we are quite early to project certain races (Song comes to mind as does International Feature Film and Documentary Feature). Please note that all new competitions contain 10 possibilities while the acting and directing prizes list 15 (with 25 for BP). Those will likely get dwindled down around September.
We are still dealing with the matter of category placement. I’m going with the general consensus and now putting Carrie Coon’s work in His Three Daughters in lead Actress while her costar Natasha Lyonne is in supporting. Ms. Lyonne makes the cut in that race (replacing Coon).
I toyed with putting Saoirse Ronan back in Supporting Actress for Blitz since it’s been confirmed that her heralded role in The Outrun is officially out in October. Ultimately I decided to keep her in lead and I’m giving her the nom in Blitz over Outrun (slightly).
While BP remains the same, I’ve elevated Sean Baker’s direction in Anora over Mohammad Rasoulof for The Seed of the Sacred Fig. We also have Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) in Supporting Actor for the first time and that displaces Harris Dickinson (Blitz) from the quintet. With its trailer out, Gladiator II rises three sports in the BP hopefuls.
You can read all the movement and peep the new races below! I’ll have another update available before the end of July…
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 14) (E)
15. The End (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Maria (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 17) (E)
18. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 20) (+2)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Nosferatu (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Hard Truths (PR: Not Ranked)
22. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-1)
23. His Three Daughters (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Here (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Dídi (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
We Live in Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (E)
12. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Payal Kapadaia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
15.Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters – moved to supporting
Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tom Hanks, Here
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (E)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters – moved to lead
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 15) (+3)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. I Saw the TV Glow (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Hit Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Fire Inside (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Here (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez
2. I’m Still Here
3. The Count of Monte Cristo
4. Uprising
5. Grand Tour
Other Possibilities:
6. Simon of the Mountain
7. Evil Does Not Exist
8. Emmanuelle
9. Kneecap
10. The Girl with the Needle
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
4. Flow
5. Memoir of a Snail
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2
7. Savages
8. The Most Precious of Cargoes
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
10. Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Black Box Diaries
2. Daughters
3. Sugarcane
4. No Other Land
5. Will & Harper
Other Possibilities:
6. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
8. Gaucho Gaucho
9. Union
10. Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Nosferatu
4. Anora
5. Gladiator II
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez
7. Conclave
8. Joker: Folie à Deux
9. Queer
10. Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
7. Maria
8. Megalopolis
9. Conclave
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Sing Sing
4. Anora
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
8. Gladiator II
9. Challengers
10. Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Nosferatu
3. A Different Man
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Story
5. Maria
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Sasquatch Sunset
9. Longlegs
10. Nightbitch
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Joker: Folie à Deux
3. Sing Sing
4. Queer
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz
7. Gladiator II
8. Nickel Boys
9. Nosferatu
10. Challengers
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez
2. TBD from Sing Sing
3. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
5. TBD from Moana 2
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper
8. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers
9. “Claw Machine” from I Saw the TV Glow
10. “Release” from Trap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Blitz
3. Gladiator II
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Joker: Folie à Deux
8. Conclave
9. Beetlejuce Beetlejuice
10. Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
4. Blitz
5. Emilia Pérez
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters
7. Wicked
8. A Quiet Place: Day One
9. Civil War
10. Nosferatu
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Gladiator II
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
4. Mufasa: The Lion King
5. Here
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
7. Blitz
8. Twisters
9. Nosferatu
10. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
And, for the first time in 2024, my tally for overall nominations for various pictures are as follows:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Nosferatu, The Piano Lesson, Queer
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
Furiosa: A Mad Max Story, Maria, Mufasa: The Lion King, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Wicked
1 Nomination
The Actor, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, His Three Daughters, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Moana 2, Nightbitch, No Other Land, Sugarcane, Uprising, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.
Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?
I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).
As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?
Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two overMcQueen.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)
17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)
18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)
21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)
24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bird
Kinds of Kindness
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Maria
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, TheEnd (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George MacKay, The End
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)
11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.
The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.
In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.
A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.
It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)
13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)
18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)
19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)
20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)
25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Not Ranked:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Toni Collette, JurorNo. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead
Robin Wright, Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.
One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.
The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.
In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.
Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.
Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.
As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.
Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.
Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!
Awards prospects for Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice might have less to do with today’s Cannes premiere or whatever date the eventual distributor places it for domestic release. November 5th might be the biggest factor in whether it gets various nominations. That’s the date of the Presidential election and Oscar voters could react based on the results of whether the 45th POTUS becomes the 47th POTUS.
Set in the 1970s and 80s, this is essentially a Donald Trump origin story about ruthless attorney Roy Cohn’s influence on his life. Sebastian Stan is Trump with Jeremy Strong as Cohn. Costars include Maria Bakalova as Ivana and Martin Donovan as family patriarch Fred.
Reviews trickling in from France are somewhat all over the map. Yet compliments for the men playing Trump and Cohn is mostly universal. Mr. Stan’s biggest competition for a final five slot in Actor could be himself as he’s also being lauded for A Different Man. It rolled out at Sundance and is slated for a September domestic bow. Strong, an Emmy winner for Succession, could book his first Academy recognition in Supporting Actor. In fact, he might be in competition with his costar/onscreen sibling from that acclaimed HBO show in Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). As for Bakalova, a previous nominee for the Borat sequel in 2020, her role is probably too small to contend.
If Stan and Strong are up for their roles, it greatly increases the chances of BP inclusion despite the varying reactions. I am skeptical that Abbasi (maker of international critical darlings Border and Holy Spider) or the screenplay are up (the latter would be more feasible). Yet it might be the general election ballot that ultimately chooses the viability of The Apprentice. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.
Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.
I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.
In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.
I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)
18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)
19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Hard Truths
SNL 1975
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)
15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)
12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
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