Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Colman Domingo, Michael
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.
The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.
Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.
As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:
Joe Alwyn, Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Brendan Fraser, Pressure
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.
Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.
So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.
One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.
Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.
The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.
Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.
Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.
So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?
Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:
2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)
2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman
2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)
2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog
2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin
I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.
In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.
Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.
If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.
A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.
The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!
As they always do, the trilogy of late summer/early fall festivals in Venice, Toronto and Telluride tremendously shaped the Oscar landscape a few weeks ago. The in-progress New York fest has a smaller imprint, but we did see the premiere of Ronan Day-Lewis’s Anemone before its semi-wide release this weekend. Starring his three-time Oscar winning father Daniel, the screenings keep him in the convo for Best Actor while its Picture, Director and Original Screenplay possibilities fell by the wayside. If its lead were to make the cut in the Actor quintet, he could bring costars Sean Bean and Samantha Morton with him in the supporting fields. However, I think that’s a long shot.
New York’s closer is Is This Thing On? from Bradley Cooper. His two other behind the camera works (A StarIs Born, Maestro) were both BP contenders. When I do my next update, we’ll know its viability in all races from BP to the acting contests for Will Arnett, Laura Dern and Cooper himself.
In other news, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another performed respectably though didn’t surpass expectations in its box office debut. I still believe ranking it 1st in BP, Director and Adapted Screenplay is the right play with its terrific reviews. Benicio del Toro pops up in the top 10 for Supporting Actor though it could be a stretch for both him and Sean Penn to get in. That said, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti are both viable in Supporting Actress. In fact, I’m elevating Infiniti for the first time in that race with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside.
In a best case scenario, Battle could see five of its performers up for gold (with Leonardo DiCaprio in lead Actor). Nine pictures have managed that feat in Oscar history: 1942’s Mrs. Miniver, All About Eve from 1950, 1953’s From Here to Eternity, 1954’s On the Waterfront, 1957’s Peyton Place, 1963’s Tom Jones, 1967’s Bonnie and Clyde, 1974’s The Godfather Part II, and Network from 1976, Worth noting is that it’s been almost half a century since it last happened.
Another newcomer this weekend is Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine and it is struggling mightily at the box office. With more reviews out that are far from raves, I’m more skeptical that Dwayne Johnson or Emily Blunt get nominated. The best bet for inclusion is Makeup and Hairstyling and I’m not even convinced it gets in there.
Bugonia has fallen out of my BP top ten with Avatar: Fire and Ash returning to the lineup. This could be temporary, but we’ll see how the reaction to Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest is when it debuts later this month.
There’s a change in Best Actor with George Clooney as Jay Kelly returning to the projected quintet and Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) dropping.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 11) (+2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sydney Sweeney, Christy
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Adapted Screenplay
8. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? – moved to Original Screenplay
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
My Father’s Shadow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-1)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Hamnet
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. F1 (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
And that all equates to these movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
Sinners
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
No Other Choice
2 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
On the rare occasion that Daniel Day-Lewis makes a movie, it immediately becomes a potential awards player. The English legend is one of just seven people who’ve won more than two acting Oscars with his three victories represented by 1989’s My Left Foot, 2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2012’s Lincoln. He nabbed three additional lead Actor nods for 1993’s In the Name of the Father, 2002’s Gangs of New York and 2017’s Phantom Thread.
Anemone marks his first role since Thread eight years ago and it premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its semi-wide release next Friday. The family drama is also a family affair as son Ronan Day-Lewis makes his behind the camera debut. The director and his dad share credit on the screenplay. Sean Bean, Samantha Morton and Samuel Bottomley round out the cast.
Early word-of-mouth from the Big Apple indicates its star gives a magnetic performance with a couple of key monologues, including one that’s reportedly too filthy for an Oscar clip. Buzz for the film itself is more mixed with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is highly unlikely to contend for Best Picture, Director or Original Screenplay.
Yet in a Best Actor competition that is notably open at press time, Day-Lewis could certainly squeeze in. Considering the varied reaction to the pic itself, I don’t envision him making a fourth trip to the Academy’s podium. **If he did, he’d become just the second individual to do so and join Katherine Hepburn with that distinction.
Beyond the three-time winner, Anemone could be in the mix for its cinematography. If Day-Lewis receives his seventh nom, Bean and Morton could ride his coattails to supporting mentions. Both are being heralded for their contributions. For Bean, it would mark his first at-bat with Morton going for a third mention behind 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown and 2003’s In America. Their nominations seem less probable their co-star’s. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.
Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.
That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).
As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):
Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.
The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).
Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.
Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.
Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.
Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).
Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.
Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.
You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)
24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Smashing Machine
Ballad of a Small Player
La Grazia
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Hikari, Rental Family
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)
11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)
15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)
12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)
13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)
14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)
15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
The Rivals of Amziah King
Anemone
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ballad of a Small Player
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Late Fame
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
La Grazia
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
Deaf President Now!
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)
9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Couture
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Christy
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)
3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)
8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)
7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
How to Train Your Dragon
That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Winner: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Bugonia
4 Nominations
Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
Deep Cover is available to stream on Amazon Prime Video today with Tom Kingsley directing and Jurassic World maker Colin Trevorrow among four credited with the script. The co-screenwriter’s dino lead Bryce Dallas Howard stars alongside Orlando Bloom, Nick Mohammed, Paddy Considine, Ian McShane, and Sean Bean.
This is not a remake of the 1992 Laurence Fishburne/Jeff Goldblum crime thriller that featured a banger of a title song from Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Instead this British high concept action comedy is receiving decent marks with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more down-to-earth 68 Metacritic. It won’t get near the Academy’s radar. I do wonder if it could get a push for BAFTA’s Best British Film. That might be a long shot, but not an impossibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.
Based on a Japanese manga series that began in the mid 1980s, Knights of the Zodiac hits theaters this Friday. The fantasy adventure is directed by Tomek Bagiński and stars Mackenyu, son of martial arts legend Sonny Chiba. Costars include Famke Janssen, Madison Iseman, Diego Tinoco, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl, and Sean Bean.
With a reported budget of $60 million, Zodiac hopes to make its mark overseas. Its domestic prospects look dim. I haven’t seen an official screen count (and that could alter my projection), but I’d be surprised if this topped $5 million. In fact, it might be lucky to take in half of that.
Knight of the Zodiac opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million
For my Book Club: The Next Chapter prediction, click here:
Two weeks before the Easter holiday, faith based drama The Young Messiah rises in theaters next weekend hoping to take advantage of the season. Produced by Home Alone and Harry Potter helmer Chris Columbus, Messiah features Adam Greaves-Neal as a young Jesus with Sean Bean costarring.
Shot for a reported small budget of $16.8 million, this shouldn’t have much trouble recouping costs and then some (especially if it experiences meager declines in weekends two and three, which seems feasible). These Christian themed pics are typically tough to project and often do open larger than expected. Just in mid February, Risen (a similarly themed tale appealing to the same audience) took in $11.8 million. That seems a reasonable range for Messiah.
I’ll say it reaches just beyond that and, in doing so, I have it debuting even higher than Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby opening against it.
The Young Messiah opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million
For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:
Matt Damon waits for one of the longest rides home in film history during Ridley Scott’s The Martian, both a love letter to the space program and the power of science and positive thinking. When we think of director Scott’s contributions to the science fiction genre, we normally think brilliantly grim (Alien, Blade Runner). More recently – mixed bag grim (Prometheus). Not the case here. The Martian is infused with laughter and an often amusing star turn role by its anchor.
We open in 2035 with Damon’s astronaut Mark part of a manned mission to the Red Planet along with colleagues that include the Commander (Jessica Chastain), Kate Mara, and Michael Pena. A massive dust storm wreaks havoc and leaves the crew believing Mark has perished and they are forced to leave the planet without his body. Of course he has survived and so begins Mark’s new solo mission: learning how to survive as the only inhabitant on a planet with little food or other necessities on his left behind vessel. Lucky for him, he’s a brilliant botanist who comes up with clever (sometimes disgusting) ways to harvest food.
NASA soon learns that Mark is alive and this sets off a furious effort to pick him up. This is no easy task to say the least and it involves the question of whether to inform his crew (on their way back to Earth) of his survival. There’s delicate involvement with the Chinese space program. Kristin Wiig (in a small but fascinating role) plays NASA’s media consultant, who must navigate the organization’s own land mines. And there’s the head of NASA, played winningly and by Jeff Daniels. Other familiar faces turning up as government scientists include Chiwetel Ejiofor and Sean Bean.
While Mark’s situation seems dire, he handles his circumstances with an often lighthearted touch (and occasional profanity laced tirade to his bosses). The Martian goes out of its way to explain the science behind rescuing our protagonist and it’s fascinating enough that it makes you ponder whether younger viewers may reconsider career choices. In short, it makes science look awfully cool and important.
Damon has shown real comedic talent before (see Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant!) and he excels at it here, along with his more known ability at drama. Even with the welcome humor, this is by no means a straight up comedy (memo to the Golden Globes).
As Mark is a shining example of optimism under pressure, Jeff Daniels’ NASA chief is an example of calm under pressure. His performance is an example of strength and understatement. Damon may own this show, but Daniels earns marks for most interesting supporting player.
The visual look from Scott is the beautiful kind of feast we would anticipate from this visual auteur. Drew Goddard’s screenplay, based on Andy Weir’s 2011 novel, keeps things moving along with quirky touches that include a disco heavy soundtrack. It is only in the final stretches of The Martian that we see how the world is captivated by Mark’s long hoped for journey back home. It’s not really a necessity to see it because we just assume. We are entertainingly captivated, too, with lots of smiles along the way.
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