Prior to its November 7th stateside debut, Nuremberg has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. The historical drama is James Vanderbilt’s second directorial feature behind 2015’s so-so received Truth (he’s best known for his screenwriting including Zodiac, the two Amazing Spider-Man pics, the latest Scream entries and Abigail). Best Actor winners Russell Crowe (as Nazi war criminal Hermann Göring) and Rami Malek headline. Leo Woodall, John Slattery, Mark O’Brien, Colin Hanks, Richard E. Grant and Michael Shannon costar.
Reaction is in the mixed variety with 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 63 Metacritic. Despite decent ink for the cast, this is unlikely to generate any significant awards chatter for the Sony Pictures Classics release. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of Ready or Not and the last two Scream installments, are in vampiric mode with Abigail on April 19th. Reimagining 1936’s Dracula’s Daughter, the horror flick stars Melissa Barrera (also of the latest Scream entries), Dan Stevens, Alisha Weir, Kathryn Newton, William Catlett, Kevin Durand, the late Angus Cloud, Matthew Goode, and Giancarlo Esposito.
Genre fans have had plenty to feast on in 2024. Just last weekend, we saw The First Omen struggle to bring audiences in with an opening under $10 million despite solid reviews. Abigail is generating appreciative notices as well with a current 82% RT rating.
I suspect Abigail will cross $10 million, but $20 million (or even $15 million) seems like a bridge too far.
Abigail opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (04/26): I am revising my Big George Foreman estimate down from $8.5M to $5.7M
The Super Mario Bros. Movie should have a fourth and final weekend atop the charts before Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 kicks off May and the summer cinematic season. Coming-of-age dramedy Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret and boxing biopic Big George Foreman also the newbies entering the ring. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The revolving door at #2 should belong to Margaret, based on the 1970 Judy Blume bestseller. While a gross approaching $20 million is feasible, I’ll say mid teens is where it lands. It will bank on strong holds in its subsequent frames.
As for Big George Foreman, it might find itself in a close race with the second weekend of Evil Dead Rise for third position. I have Rise falling in the low to mid 60s (similar to the 2013 predecessor Evil Dead). If that occurs, it might win a close decision vs. Foreman.
Mario should have no trouble dominating once again and a mid 30s dip would give it just under $40 million in that fourth outing.
Finally, I have holdover John Wick: Chapter 4 in fifth. That slot could go to Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant or Air, though I have Keanu and company experiencing the smallest decline.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $39.4 million
2. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
3. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. Big George Foreman
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (April 21-23)
As anticipated, it was a three-peat for The Super Mario Bros. Movie as it collected another $59.9 million in coinage. Blasting beyond my $54.8 million prediction, Illumination’s animated juggernaut has amassed $436 million domestically.
Evil Dead Rise proved there’s no horror fatigue for audiences following recent efforts Scream VI, The Pope’s Exorcist, and Renfield. The fifth pic in the franchise opened with an impressive $24.5 million, elevating past my $16.7 million take. That’s just a shade behind what 2013’s Dead ($25.7 million) kicked off with.
Afghanistan War drama Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant with Jake Gyllenhaal couldn’t fill its theaters with a middling $6.3 million. It did premiere a tad ahead of my $5.6 million forecast, but that’s still an unimpressive result.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was fourth with $5.8 million compared to my $4.7 million projection with $168 million in the coffers.
Fifth place belonged to Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves with $5.5 million (I said $4.3 million) as the franchise hopeful is straining to reach nine digits at $82 million.
Air was sixth with $5.4 million in the third weekend – in line with my $4.6 million guesstimate. Total is $41 million.
Plummeting from 2nd to 7th is The Pope’s Exorcist, falling victim to the power of Evil Dead . Down 62% in its sophomore frame with $3.4 million, I was more generous at $4.6 million. The ten-day tally is $15 million.
The story is similar for Renfield, down 59% in weekend #2 with $3.2 million (I went with $3.9 million). The tepid two-week total is $13 million.
Finally, Beau Is Afraid with Joaquin Phoenix (generating wildly divergent reactions) played well in very limited NY/LA showings last weekend. Yet it stumbled in wider release. The multi-genre odyssey made $2.7 million on just under 1000 screens. I was higher at $4.4 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
And in the meantime, listen to my box office thoughts on your favorite podcast platform by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation!
Evil Dead Rise books passage into multiplexes ten years after Sam Raimi’s franchise was rebooted the first time around to lively box office results. Like its 2013 predecessor (which this is not a sequel to), it premiered to praise at South by Southwest in March. Lee Cronin directs a cast including Lily Sullivan, Alyssa Sutherland, and Morgan Davies.
The original Evil Dead from 1981, its 1987 sequel, and 1993’s Army of Darkness from Raimi and star Bruce Campbell are horror comedy classics with deeply devoted followings. When Fede Álvarez’s reboot arrived a decade ago, it received some criticism for lacking the humor of the original trilogy. Nevertheless it debuted to $25 million and that turned out to be a front loaded start as it ended with $54 million domestically.
Rise‘s reviews are far stronger with a Rotten Tomateos score of 94% (compared to 63% for 2013’s effort). While audiences have certainly seen their share of the genre as of late with Scream VI, Renfield, and The Pope’s Exorcist, the brand name and solid buzz might mean $20 million plus is doable. That said, the market is feeing oversaturated and low to mid teens could be the result.
Evil Dead Rise opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant prediction, click here:
Those animated Nintendo plumbers should dominate the box office once again after a massive Easter haul, but there are newcomers to ponder. We have horror comedy Renfield with Nicolas Cage and Nicholas Hoult, less funny horror tale The Pope’s Exorcist featuring Russell Crowe, and Japanese animated fantasy Suzume. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
Nothing will approach the sophomore frame for The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which soared in its first five days of release (more on that below). The question is not whether it will remain #1 (it will easily), but how far it falls. With an A Cinemascore and no competition for families, I’ll say it drops in the 50% range.
Renfield is garnering pretty decent reviews and a double digits to low teens output should allow it to be the runner-up. Suzume is a little trickier. Other Toho titles have exceeded $10 million for their beginnings and this could do the same. I’m projecting it a tad under for a fourth place showing behind the sophomore weekend for Air (which should have a nice hold).
The Pope’s Exorcist is also a bit of a head scratcher. Horror flicks can certainly over perform and this did decent business overseas this past weekend. Yet with Renfield providing a diversion for eyeballs, this might not even make the top 5.
Finally, I’ll dispense with Mafia Mamma. This Bleecker Street comedy stars Toni Collette and seems to be flying far under the radar. I didn’t do an individual prognosis post for it and haven’t seen a screen count. Given the distributor’s lack of success with earlier projects, this might be lucky to hit $2 million. That would put it nowhere near the high five.
Given that numbers 3-7 especially could be close, I’ll give you my outlook for those spots:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $74.9 million
2. Renfield
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
3. Air
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
4. Suzume
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
6. The Pope’s Exorcist
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
Box Office Results (April 7-9)
Illumination Entertainment doesn’t really miss when it comes to putting out animated blockbusters (think Despicable Me, Minions, Sing, The Secret Life of Pets franchises). Now they clearly have a host of Nintendo properties that will shower them with coins. The Super Mario Bros. Movie vastly exceeded expectations with $146.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $204.6 million since its Wednesday premiere. That is, to say the least, better than my respective estimates of $98.6 million and $137.7 million. The temperature was clearly right for its massive breakthrough performance as its global $377 million gross is the best ever for an animated feature.
John Wick: Chapter 4 stayed put in second with $14.4 million (on target with my $14.6 million call). The three-week total stands at $146 million.
Ben Affleck’s Air rode a wave of rising buzz to impressive numbers. It made $14.4 million for third with $20.2 million since its Wednesday start. The sports drama managed to top my takes which were $12.7 million and $18.9 million. As mentioned, this should hold up well in the coming weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves was the biggest victim of the Mario wave. In its second weekend, the adventure tumbled 63% to $13.8 million. I was more optimistic with $16.8 million. The ten-day domestic tally is $61 million as its future as a franchise is murky.
Scream VI was fifth with $3.4 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as it crossed the century mark after five weeks with $103 million.
Finally,faith-based drama His Only Son failed to capitalize on the religious holiday with $2.8 million for sixth. I thought it might do a bit better in frame #2 and said $3.8 million. It’s made $10 million.
Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you stream!
Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M
The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.
Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
3. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
4. Air
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. His Only Son
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.
Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.
Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.
Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).
Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…
Blogger’s Update (03/29): I am significantly revising my His Only Son estimate from $6.1M to $3.9M. That puts it in sixth instead of third.
There could be a photo finish at this weekend’s box office between the premiere of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and second frame of John Wick: Chapter 4 after it managed a franchise best premiere. Other than Thieves, the faith-based drama His Only Son also rises in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newbies here:
While Dungeons certainly has a rabid fanbase and reviews are quite strong, I do wonder how limited its potential is with non-fans who may have zero interest. If this hit $40 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. Same goes for $25 million. That puts me in the middle.
Wick delivered the aforementioned series peak for Keanu and company (more on that below). If the sophomore frame dip is similar to predecessor John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, it might find itself just behind Dungeons in second. I’m expecting a close battle.
His Only Son, like other titles in its genre, could outdo expectations just as Jesus Revolution did a few weeks ago. My mid single digits projections put it in third with sequels Creed III, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and Scream VI all in close proximity in the 4-6 slots.
There was little doubt that John Wick: Chapter 4 would continue each entry improving upon the opening of the other. The question was by how much. With the best reviews of the quartet, 4 got off to a $73.8 million start. That’s well beyond the $56 million achieved by the third chapter. I went on the highest end of anticipated ranges with $85.5 million. It didn’t get there, but this is a terrific result.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods plummeted 69% in weekend #2 with $9.7 million. I was more generous at $12.9 million. The DCEU sequel (with $45 million) has made less in 10 days than its 2019 predecessor made in its first three. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. This is a bomb that may struggle to make $75 million domestically.
Creed III was third with $8.3 million, in line with $8.8 million take for $140 million after four weeks.
Scream VI was fourth and also did $8.3 million (I predicted a little more at $9.4 million). The horror sequel is at $89 million as it slashes to $100 million plus.
Finally, 65 rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3 million) for a weak $27 million after three weeks.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
BUT in the meantime – check out my podcast on your favorite place to get podcasts. Simply search for Movies at the Speed of Speculation for your listening pleasure!
There’s more than one way to clean a knife after piercing a victim’s skin in the Scream flicks. The filmmakers appear determined to give this series nine lives or more as the sixth installment finds new terrorizers to fill the Ghostface mask. Let’s quickly go through the strange name game as 2022’s Scream was really Scream V. Termed as a requel, Urban Dictionary considers that a “sequel to a movie that functions somewhere between a sequel, a reboot, and a remake”. Unfortunately Scream (’22 version) didn’t function that well at all. With directors Matt Bettinelli and Tyler Gillett taking over directorial duties from the late Wes Craven, they showed lots of appreciation for the original from 1996. Like the other follow-ups, it couldn’t compare to the fresh satiric edge that part 1 had. In fact, despite a well-executed slashing or two, I’d rank it fifth of the lot.
Now I’d rank it sixth because Scream VI is a minor improvement. It picks up a year after the events of the fifth. We’re not in Woodsboro anymore as Sam Carpenter (Melissa Barrera), daughter of the OG Ghostface Billy Loomis, has relocated to the Big Apple. She’s there mostly to keep watch over little sister Tara (Jenna Ortega), now a college freshman along with sister and brother Mindy (Jasmin Savoy Brown) and Chad (Mason Gooding). They call themselves the Core 4 since they managed to survive the havoc wreaked by Sam’s ex-bf Richie in the last go-round.
The dwindling legacy characters returning are Gail Weathers (Courtney Cox), the reporter who’s always looking for a way to make a buck from the mayhem. There’s also Kirby Reed (Hayden Panettiere), who played an integral role in Scream 4. She was the best friend to the eventual Ghostface in that one. And while part four was one of the better sequels, I would understand if you forgot her character. Now Kirby is an FBI agent who shows up to help (which obviously makes her a quick suspect). I wonder if her appearance might be due to Sidney (Neve Campbell) not being present. Word is they didn’t want to show her the money to appear.
While the predecessor often paid homage to Scream ’96 (released the same month when Mason Gooding’s dad Cuba was screaming “Show me the money!” to Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire), this has its winks to Scream 2 from 1997 by being set in the higher ed world. Some of the brutal sequences are well-constructed. The opening with Samara Weaving as a college professor on a blind date is a clever way to start.
Part of the fun in the Scream pics is figuring out the slayers and it’s usually more than one. There’s a few to consider with Sam’s neighbor and secret lover (Josh Segarra), the detective father (Dermot Mulroney) of her roommate Quinn (Liana Liberato), and Chad’s roommate Ethan (Jack Champion). And who knows? Maybe Papa Billy’s demonic genes are infecting Sam.
As we’ve seen before in this franchise, there’s a scene where a character explains that the “rules have changed!”. And nothing is as it seems. The NYC locale change is welcome (Ghostface brandishing a shotgun in a bodega is fresh new territory). Scream VI gets by for a while in the new setting and with its furious piercings. Sadly it is not faster. The 122 minute runtime is a series record and when we reach the third act, the rules haven’t changed much with the unmasking reveals. That portion is the biggest letdown. There’s only so many ways to inject life into these deaths, but they’ll find ways as long as we continue to show them the money.
John Wick: Chapter 4 is set to easily achieve a franchise best record this weekend. It’s the only new wide release burning up the screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
When I did my initial projection last week, I had Keanu and company hitting close to $70 million. Sizzling buzz now has me projecting in the mid 80s for a series that keeps growing financially with each entry.
The rest of the top 5 will be holdovers. Shazam! Fury of the Gods got off to a middling start (more on that below) and it should fall a bit further than the 54% decline of its predecessor in 2019.
It could be a close call for #3 between Scream VI (which I have dipping in the mid 40s) and Creed III (which could see a lower 40s fall). 65 looks to round out the high five.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $85.5 million
2. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
4. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
5. 65
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (March 17-19)
Shazam! Fury of the Gods could’ve used Irish luck or any other type as it came nowhere near the $53 million that its predecessor debuted at. The DCEU sequel made $30.1 million. While it managed to barely top my $27.9 million call, this is a subpar start to be kind. On the heels of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania not matching expectations, there seems to be some superhero fatigue. With a B+ Cinemascore (compared to part 1’s “A”), look for this to suffer substantial declines in the weeks ahead.
Scream VI was second after a franchise high opening with $17.3 million. That’s right on pace with my $17.6 million forecast for a ten-day haul of $75 million (just below the $81 million that #5 earned in total stateside).
Creed III was third with $15.3 million (I said $16.5 million) for a three-week tally of $127 million. That puts it beyond the $115 million that part II made overall.
65 was fourth with $5.8 million, a smidge ahead of my $4.8 million projection. Adam Driver’s dino adventure stands at a muted $22 million thus far.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania rounded out the top five with $4.2 million, in line with my $4.3 million prediction. Total is $205 million.
**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M
Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M
Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.
A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.
Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:
1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
2. Scream VI
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
3. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $16.5 million
4. 65
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (March 10-12)
Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.
Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.
65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.
Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.
Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.
Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.
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