As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Zoe Saldaña in Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. If you missed my posts covering the other nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Zoe Saldaña:
After a career mostly known for appearances in the Star Trek, Avatar, and Guardians of the Galaxy franchises, Saldaña’s work as a singing defense attorney to the title character has earned across the board precursor victories. That includes the Golden Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Case Against Zoe Saldaña:
If the controversy regarding costar Karla Sofia Gascón’s past social media postings translate to all Pérez categories, Saldaña could be in trouble.
The Verdict:
Saldaña appears immune to the Gascón firestorm and the sweep appears assured. Anyone other than her winning on Sunday evening would constitute a major upset.
My Case Of posts will continue with the final hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice…
The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.
I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.
Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.
For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.
The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.
Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.
Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice. If you missed my posts covering the other Actor nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Sebastian Stan:
As Donald Trump building out his real estate career, Stan embodied the future President with BAFTA and Golden Globe nominations in tow.
The Case Against Sebastian Stan:
Making the Oscar quintet was a question mark since he probably split votes with his other heralded 2024 work in A Different Man. For that role, he took home the Golden Globe in Actor (Musical or Comedy) while losing the Actor in a Drama prize and the BAFTA to Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). Stan did not make the cut at Critics Choice or SAG.
The Verdict:
Brody and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) are out front and Stan is not considered a threat to either of them.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Supporting Actress and Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fifth and final entry in Best Actress and that’s Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here from Walter Salles. If you missed my posts covering the other Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Fernanda Torres:
The Brazilian performer had her stateside awards breakthrough with the acclaimed political drama. This culminated in a fairly surprising victory at the Golden Globes for Actress in a Drama, beating out stalwarts like Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Kate Winslet (Lee).
The Case Against Fernanda Torres:
That Globe win is a bit misleading since she’s only nominee of the six to make the Academy’s cut. The other four Oscar contenders were all up for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. This includes BAFTA recipient Mikey Madison (Anora) and Globe/Critics Choice honoree Demi Moore (The Substance). Torres failed to achieve nominations at BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice.
The Verdict:
It’s not an impossibility that Torres could upset, but she is a distant third behind Madison and Moore.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fifth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Guy Pearce in Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. If you missed my posts covering the first three contenders, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Guy Pearce:
After a distinguished career that includes acclaimed leading roles in L.A. Confidential and Memento and supporting appearances in Best Picture winners The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech, a Guy Pearce performance finally enters the award convo. As a cold-hearted industrialist in Corbet’s acclaimed epic, he’s been nominated at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.
The Cast Against Guy Pearce:
Pearce lost to all three of the aforementioned prizes to Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. He was surprisingly snubbed at SAG and lead Adrien Brody is The Brutalist performer most likely to win gold.
The Verdict:
Culkin appears way out front and that SAG omission looms large.
My Case Of posts will continue with our fourth hopeful in Director and that’s Coralie Fargeat from The Substance…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Isabella Rossellini in Edward Berger’s Conclave. If you missed my posts covering the first three competitors, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Isabella Rossellini:
The Italian ingénue who had her cinematic breakthrough in David Lynch’s Blue Velvet finally gets award attention nearly 50 years after her acting debut. As Sister Agnes, Rossellini scored nods at the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Being cinematic royalty (the daughter of director Roberto Rossellini and acting legend Ingrid Bergman) doesn’t hurt.
The Case Against Isabella Rossellini:
Zoe Saldaña’s work in Emilia Pérez is sweeping the season so far. Rossellini’s final chance for a victory has lapsed since she’s not nominated at the SAG Awards. Her 8 minutes of screen time might be considered too minimal for the gold.
The Verdict:
This first nomination will not result in a trip to the stage.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Guy Pearce in The Brutalist…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Actor and that’s Ralph Fiennes in Edward Berger’s Conclave. If you missed my posts covering the first three thespians, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Supporting Actor (1993, Schindler’s List) – lost to Tommy Lee Jones (The Fugitive)
Best Actor (1996, The English Patient) – lost to Geoffrey Rush (Shine)
The Case for Ralph Fiennes:
For his third nomination and first in nearly 30 years, his work as Cardinal Thomas Lawrence in the papal thriller earned Fiennes lead actor nods at the Globes, BAFTA, SAG, and Critics Choice. The Academy could consider this a lifetime achievement prize after three decades of well-received performances in pics both large and small.
The Case Against Ralph Fiennes:
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) has swept the season thus far with Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) generally seen as the runner-up. Conclave took Best Film at BAFTA and if Fiennes couldn’t emerge there, it’s tough to see him winning anywhere.
The Verdict:
I wouldn’t look for Fiennes to be the selection and the third time won’t be the charm.
My Case Of posts will continue with our fourth hopeful in Supporting Actress and that’s Conclave costar Isabella Rossellini…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our fourth entry in Best Actress and that’s Demi Moore in Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. If you missed my posts covering the first three Actress nominees, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Demi Moore:
After a high profile career on the big screen spanning over four decades and including smash hits like Ghost, A Few Good Men, and Indecent Proposal, Moore has at last entered the awards conversation. As a film star whose fame is fading, her portrayal of Elisabeth Sparkle generated the strongest reviews of her career. Victories at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice have followed with SAG still in the mix on Sunday. Hollywood loves a comeback narrative and this is a significant one. Moore’s stirring Globes speech is a bonus.
The Case Against Demi Moore:
Mikey Madison (Anora) interrupted Moore’s potential sweep with a surprising BAFTA win last weekend. Anora in general seems to be peaking and that could help its lead. Perhaps The Substance‘s sheer audacity will turn off some voters.
The Verdict:
SAG could definitely indicate whether it’s Moore or Madison in the lead, but this race will have suspense until the envelope is opened.
My Case Of posts will continue with the fourth hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Ralph Fiennes in Conclave…
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Felicity Jones in Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist. If you missed my posts covering Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Ariana Grande from Wicked, they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
Best Actress (2014, The Theory of Everything) – lost to Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
The Case for Felicity Jones:
A decade after contending in lead actress for The Theory of Everything, Jones gets her second Academy try in the picture tied for the second most nominations. She also received mentions at BAFTA and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Felicity Jones:
Jones was not nominated at Critics Choice or SAG and nearly all chatter of an actor winning for The Brutalist has focused on Adrien Brody in Best Actor. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) has swept the season so far and with SAG the only precursor left, Jones has no chance of picking up any hardware before the big show.
The Verdict:
It was a question mark as to whether Jones would make the final five. It’s an honor to be nominated.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third hopeful in Supporting Actor and that’s Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown…
The 31st SAG Awards hosted by Kristen Bell air on Netflix this Sunday and are the last major precursor before the Oscars on March 2nd. The winners here will not influence the Academy since voting closed this week.
That said, the correlation between SAG victors and Oscar winners can be high. In Actress over the past decade, it’s 7 out of 10. For Actor – 8 out of 10. In the supporting fields, we’re looking at a whopping 9/10 for both.
At SAG, the top prize is Best Ensemble and not Best Picture. Therefore we have less frequency between those competitions matching. Yet it’s a decent 6 out of 10 including the last 3 with CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer.
Let’s walk through each race and I’ll give you my winner pick and a runner-up. I’ll have a recap posted Sunday evening!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Anora, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
All 5 nominees here are BP hopefuls at Oscar and that’s the first occurrence of that since 2014. Unknown and the scandal plagued Pérez are long shots. The other three are all stronger possibilities. Conclave is fresh off the BAFTA coronation while Anora recently completed the hat trick of DGA/PGA/Critics Choice. That said, Wicked really over performed with nods in Actress, both supporting fields, and Stunt Ensemble. And (spoiler alert) I’m not predicting it to win any of those. It isn’t rare for the Ensemble recipient to blank everywhere else – Black Panther, Parasite, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 all did so from 2018-2020. I’ll give a slight edge to the musical adaptation.
PREDICTED WINNER: WICKED
Runner-Up: Anora
Outstanding Performance by Female Actor in a Leading Role
Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Mikey Madison (Anora), Demi Moore (The Substance)
This really has the feel of a coin flip after Madison is the recently minted BAFTA winner while Moore has the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. I just think this group of actors might be swayed by the comeback narrative. Nevertheless this seems so close.
PREDICTED WINNER: DEMI MOORE, THE SUBSTANCE
Runner-Up: Mikey Madison, Anora
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Daniel Craig (Queer), Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
Many believe this is Chalamet’s best opportunity to interrupt Brody’s potential sweep. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens since Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce from The Brutalist both missed here and are Oscar nominees. The smart money is on Brody but I’m going with the mild upset in this one.
PREDICTED WINNER: TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET, A COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Runner-Up: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl), Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
Don’t discount Grande with Wicked‘s nomination haul. However, Saldaña has swept thus far and seems immune to any controversy with the picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: ZOE SALDAÑA, EMILIA PÉREZ
Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Yura Borisov (Anora), Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
Norton is maybe the only real threat to Culkin’s seasonal sweep. I don’t believe it’ll be interrupted.
PREDICTED WINNER: KIERAN CULKIN, A REAL PAIN
Runner-Up: Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, The Fall Guy, Gladiator II, Wicked
This could go to Dune: Part Two (though the first one lost to No Time to Die) or even Wicked, but this might be a layup for SAG to honor the movie about stunt ensembles.
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