As the laundromat running Evelyn whose many dimensions are explored in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Michelle Yeoh is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actress contenders.
The Case for Michelle Yeoh:
From acclaimed Hong Kong action flicks with Jackie Chan to fighting alongside James Bond in Tomorrow Never Dies to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to the overprotective future mother-in-law in Crazy Rich Asians, Yeoh had many career highlights until this multi-genre pic from the Daniels eclipsed them all. The Hollywood Foreign Press honored her with the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. Last weekend, she took home the SAG for Actress where 16 of the last 22 winners became the Academy’s recipients in the 21st century. Everywhere is the frontrunner for Best Picture and that certainly doesn’t hurt.
The Case Against Michelle Yeoh:
Cate Blanchett in Tár. While Yeoh’s previous victories are a road map to Oscar glory, so are Blanchett’s as she has taken the Globe in the Drama competition, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
It cannot be overstated how this is a coin flip between Yeoh and Blanchett. One could argue Yeoh has the late momentum given the recent SAG and Everything‘s likely success in the biggest race of all.
My Case Of posts will continue with Bill Nighy in Living!
For my other entries on the Actress hopefuls, click here:
As the sympathetic Dominic in The Banshees of Inisherin, Barry Keoghan is the next Case Of entry for the Supporting Actor contenders.
The Case for Barry Keoghan:
Following acclaimed performances including Dunkirk and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Keoghan get his first major awards exposure along with his three Banshees cast mates. Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globe nods followed with a surprising win at BAFTA. His lovestruck monologue to Kerry Condon is a ready made for your consideration Oscar clip.
The Case Against Barry Keoghan:
Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dandy clip or two himself and he won Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globe. Academy members may assume Keoghan has plenty more bites at the apple and he could split votes with costar Brendan Gleeson.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Despite the unexpected recognition from friends across the pond, Quan remains the heavy favorite for Supporting Actor.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Spielberg’s direction of The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other hopefuls in the race can be found here:
As the no-nonsense IRS inspector with hot dog hands in an alternate universe, Jamie Lee Curtis’s in Everything Everywhere All at Once is next up for my Supporting Actress Case Of posts.
The Case for Jamie Lee Curtis:
For four and a half decades, Curtis has been a mainstay on the silver screen across all genres from Halloween to Trading Places to A Fish Called Wanda and True Lies to Freaky Friday and Knives Out. Despite that impressive and varied filmography, Everything marks her first nom from the Academy. A victory could double as a career achievement award. That could help explain her surprise win last night at SAG. She also made the cut at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Jamie Lee Curtis:
The same career achievement narrative can be applied to Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and she won the Globe and Critics Choice. Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin took the BAFTA. Curtis could also split votes with her costar Stephanie Hsu.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
If I had written this post on Saturday, I wouldn’t have given Curtis much of a chance. The SAG recognition puts her in a three-way race with Bassett and Condon.
My Case of Posts will continue with Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin!
Write-ups for Curtis’s competition can be accessed here:
Paul Mescal’s big screen breakout work in the coming-of-age drama Aftersun is the next Case Of post for the Best Actor contenders.
The Case for Paul Mescal:
At age 27, voters took notice of the Irish thespian with nominations at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Expect to see a lot of Mescal in the coming years with potential awards hopefuls from Richard Linklater, Garth Davis, and a Gladiator sequel.
The Case Against Paul Mescal:
Another young performer – Austin Butler as Elvis – is picking up the bulk of precursor victories. Mescal didn’t make the cut at the Golden Globes or SAG. His placement for Aftersun marks the picture’s sole Academy nom. That’s typically not a recipe for an Actor victory.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Mescal should have more opportunities in the future. At the 95th Academy Awards, he’s probably fifth in the running for the aspiring quintet.
My Case Of posts will continue with Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
If you missed my other write-ups on the Actors, click here:
Playing a version of Steven Spielberg’s real mother, Michelle Williams is nominated for her fifth Oscarin The Fabelmans.
The Case for Michelle Williams:
From the moment this personal project of Spielberg’s was announced, Williams was correctly assumed to have an awards bait role. Precursor noms have materialized at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. There could also be a feeling that she is overdue given that her track record is 0 for 4 on previous mentions.
The Case Against Michelle Williams:
Universal Pictures surprised everyone when they announced they were campaigning Williams in lead instead of supporting. I maintain that she would stand a considerably better shot at winning in the latter. Some wondered if the Academy might choose to put her up in supporting anyway. SAG and BAFTA left her off their ballots and there’s no significant victories to speak of. The general consensus and one I agree with is this is a two-person race between Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
Previous Nominations:
Brokeback Mountain (Supporting Actress, 2005); Blue Valentine (Actress, 2010); My Week with Marilyn (Actress; 2011); Manchester by the Sea (Supporting Actress; 2016)
The Verdict:
I believe the choice to slot Williams will universally be regarded as an unforced error. She seemed headed for 0 for 5.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Mescal in Aftersun!
If you didn’t catch my other write-ups on the contending Actresses, click here:
Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.
This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory
I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:
The 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards air this Sunday evening and they are often a reliable preview of what direction the Academy will go. In their races for Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor – there has been an 8/10 correlation over the past decade for SAG/Oscar matches. With Supporting Actress – it is 9/10.
Let’s walk through each of the six categories with my predicted winner and a runner-up, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking
Since the SAGs began in 1995, only one winner (1996’s The Birdcage) wasn’t at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. That rules out Babylon. I think (like some earlier precursors) this comes down to Everything v Banshees. I’m majorly tempted to say Banshees as the voters could see it as a way to honor the four thespians nominated in the individual races below. However, I’m giving a very slight edge to SAG doing the same for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and others for Everything.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
SAG could bestow Yeoh with the trophy, but Blanchett’s work may simply be undeniable at this juncture. If Banshees ends up taking Ensemble, I do think it increases Yeoh’s chances here.
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
I feel like Farrell really needed that BAFTA last weekend and he didn’t emerge victorious. So it’s a two-person race between Butler and Fraser. And I’m struggling with this one. I could easily envision fellow actors crowning Fraser’s dramatic comeback that includes a Critics Choice award. Yet Butler has seen an impressive run that includes the Golden Globe and BAFTA. This is a coin flip, but I’ll say Butler has a little more momentum.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
A quintet that matches the Oscar five, Condon disrupted the possibility of Bassett sweeping when she took the BAFTA. They’re the two likeliest winners. I will say Curtis scoring an upset is feasible. I think the smart money is on Bassett with Condon as the runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
BAFTA again had a trick up their sleeve when Keoghan surprised over Quan. I think SAG will follow the lead of the Globes and Critics Choice and bring the latter back to the stage.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King
The only pic that I don’t think has a shot is Avatar because the original in 2009 didn’t even land a nom. 2018’s Black Panther won so Wakanda is certainly viable. Those pilots from Maverick did same amazing stuff though. They’re my pick.
Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my thoughts on what happened compared to my predictions.
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
For his brief but memorable appearance as an eccentric granduncle in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor nominees.
The Case for Judd Hirsch:
From TV shows Taxi and Dear John to movies including Ordinary People and Independence Day, Hirsch has been a fixture on screens small and large for decades. His inclusion here comes 42 years after a nod in the same category for Ordinary People and that stands as the longest gap between recognitions in Oscar history. Besides that cool storyline, he scored a Critics Choice mention and managed to get in over his more favored costar Paul Dano.
The Case Against Judd Hirsch:
Hirsch was omitted at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA for individual honors. He’s only in the film for about 10 minutes and that’s brought some gripes about whether he should be in the quintet at all. Most importantly, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is probably the sturdiest frontrunner in any of the acting competitions.
Previous Nominations:
Supporting Actor (Ordinary People; 1980)
The Verdict:
Hirsch was a real question mark to make the cut. There’s not much mystery about his chances to win as they’re basically non-existent.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ruben Östlund’s direction for Triangle of Sadness!
For my other posts covering the Supporting Actor contenders, click here:
As Colin Farrell’s kindly sibling in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, Kerry Condon is the next Supporting Actress hopeful for consideration in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Kerry Condon:
The stage and screen thespian stole some scenes in the main quartet of Banshees performers who were all nominated. Condon has landed precursor nods in all major ceremonies and picked up a few critics groups prizes.
The Case Against Kerry Condon:
Due to Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Condon was not victorious at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards. That leaves her, at best, in runner-up status.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
I do believe Condon is second at the moment and she could manage to upset frontrunner Bassett. A BAFTA win tomorrow or SAG next weekend could make her more viable. If Bassett continues to run the table, the gold might be out of reach.
My Case Of posts will continue with Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other Supporting Actress contenders can be accessed here:
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