Box Office Predictions: March 3-5

The month of March at the box office claws its way into theaters with three new releases premiering. They are: Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine in Logan, faith-based drama The Shack, and teen thriller Before I Fall. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Logan, with some of the greatest reviews of the X-Men franchise, should easily top the charts. It’s worth noting that my mid-60s forecast is a bit lower than some others. We shall see.

I’m expecting sub double digit openings for the other two newcomers, with The Shack landing in fourth and Before I Fall in sixth.

Critically lauded horror pic Get Out had a spectacular opening (more on that below) and I expect a rather small sophomore decline. It should have no trouble placing second. That leaves other holdovers The Lego Batman Movie in third and John Wick: Chapter 2 at fifth.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Logan

Predicted Gross: $68.6 million

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $20 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

6. Before I Fall

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

With its red hot buzz and perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, Jordan Peele’s Get Out got off to a scorching start with a $33.3 million opening – blazing past my meager $16.3M prediction. With a budget of reportedly under $5 million, this is a massively profitable venture for Blumhouse.

The Lego Batman Movie slipped to second to $19.2 million, a bit shy of my $22.1M projection for a three week total of $133M.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.4M forecast for a $74M overall gross. The Great Wall was fourth in its second weekend with $9.1 million (I said $8.2M) for a lackluster tally of $34M. Fifty Shades Darker rounded out the top five with $7.7 million in weekend #3, under my $9.9M prediction. Its total is at $103M.

Two other newcomers failed to make any impression with moviegoers. The animated Rock Dog was 11th with $3.7 million, in line with my $4.4M prediction. Action thriller Collide was DOA in 13th with $1.5 million, not even my matching my $2.1M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dh1RqnYi5hM

Box Office Predictions: February 24-26

It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/get-out-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/rock-dog-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/collide-box-office-prediction/

The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).

Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.

And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)

4. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.

Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.

Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.

The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.

Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Rock Dog Box Office Prediction

For dogs about to rock… we salute you? That’s the question audiences will answer next weekend when the animated tale (tail?) Rock Dog hits theaters. The 3D generated comedy was co-produced by a Chinese studio and already opened in that country to lackluster results.

The voice cast features Luke Wilson as a canine with musical aspirations. Other well-known faces behind the mic include J.K. Simmons, Eddie Izzard, Lewis Black, Sam Elliot, Kenan Thompson, Jorge Garcia, and Matt Dillon. Family audiences should still be checking out Lego Batman in its third weekend and the recent musical ‘toon Sing was a box office smash.

As I see it, Rock Dog is highly likely to get lost in the shuffle with its intended crowd. I have doubts this will even reach $5 million for its start.

Rock Dog opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million

For my Get Out prediction, click here:

Get Out Box Office Prediction

For my Collide prediction, click here:

Collide Box Office Prediction

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