Tag: Robert Pattinson

March 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Jack Quaid is unconventional hero Novocaine, Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender carry the romantic thriller Black Bag from Steven Soderbergh, and Daffy Duck and Porky Pig headline The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the new trio here:

Novocaine Box Office Prediction
Black Bag Box Office Prediction
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie Box Office Prediction

It could be a battle for the #1 spot. I’m projecting no feature will top $10 million though I believe Novocaine has the best shot and that it manages first place with only mild bragging rights.

I foresee Mickey 17 suffering a significant drop in its sophomore frame after a so-so start (more on that below). A mid to high 50s plummet would put it in second or maybe even third.

Black Bag, generating impressive reviews, could outdo my third place number but the adult drama should face trouble bringing in a younger crowd.

Speaking of younger crowds, Looney Tunes hopes to cash in on its well-known animated stars. Yet this seems to be severely under marketed and I have it in fifth behind Captain America: Brave New World.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 7-9)

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 ended Captain America‘s three-week #1 reign with $19 million. Given the reported price tag of around $120 million, that’s not a result to brag about. However, the sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson did surpass my $17.9 million prediction.

Captain America: Brave New World fell to second with $8.3 million. I was on target at $8.4 million. The MCU adventure now stands at $176 million.

Last Breath was third with $4 million, a bit lower than my $4.6 million forecast for the survival flick. The two-week take is $14 million.

The Monkey was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) for $31 million after three weeks.

Paddington in Peru rounded out the top five at $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the leading quintet. The sequel’s four-week gross is $36 million.

Finally, Rule Breakers from Angel Studios stumbled in ninth with a paltry $1.5 million. I was far more generous at $3.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Mickey 17, Bong Joon-ho’s follow=up to his Oscar juggernaut Parasite, looks to rule the charts this weekend and end the three-week reign of Captain America: Brave New World. We also have Rule Breakers from Angel Studios and you can peruse my prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Mickey 17 Box Office Prediction
Rule Breakers Box Office Prediction

With a forecast in the upper teens (which isn’t oh so fine), I’m not as optimistic as some others on Mickey 17. The sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson should benefit from the Joon-ho goodwill, but I’m not convinced that equates to a gross north of $20 million.

As for Rule Breakers with Phoebe Waller-Bridge, lower to mid single digits could place it in fourth or fifth with third being the best case scenario if it exceeds my projection.

Captain America: Brave New World should slide to second with a low to mid 40s dip while Last Breath and The Monkey populate the remainder of the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

2. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

3. Last Breath

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Rule Breakers

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

5. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

It was a three-peat for the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World with $14.8 million added to its coffers. That’s ahead of my $11.8 million guesstimate as the superhero tale has taken in $163 million with $200 million in its domestic sights (though it might fall a little short of that).

Survival thriller Last Breath starring Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu was runner-up with $7.8 million and that tops my glass half empty prediction of $4.8 million. That’s at the better end of its anticipated range.

The Monkey was third in its sophomore outing with $6.4 million, a tad ahead of my $5.7 million call. The horror comedy stands at $24 million after ten days.

Paddington in Peru was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $3.9 million) for $31 million overall after three weeks.

Dog Man rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I went with $3.7 million). The five-week tally is $84 million as it will try and reach $100 million stateside.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Mickey 17 Box Office Prediction

Bong Joon-ho’s follow-up to his 2019 Oscar juggernaut Parasite hits multiplexes via Mickey 17 on March 7th. Robert Pattinson plays multiple roles in the sci-fi satire which premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo costar.

Sporting the acclaimed auteur’s biggest budget, Mickey certainly arrives with higher expectations than he’s seen before. Most reviews are solid with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 75 on Metacritic. That said, it probably won’t be the awards player that Parasite was save for some tech races.

Originally slated for theaters in March 2024, some estimates have Mickey in the $25 million region. I’m not convinced it will do that fine. Had it arrived just a couple of years after Joon-ho’s predecessor, I might be projecting more. I’ll say higher teens with low 20s as the best case scenario.

Mickey 17 opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million

For my Rule Breakers prediction, click here:

Rule Breakers Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Mickey 17

Prior to its March 7th domestic release, Mickey 17 has debuted overseas at the Berlin Film Festival. The sci-fi satire is Bong Joon-ho’s eagerly awaited follow-up to 2019’s Parasite which dominated the 92nd Academy Award by taking Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and International Feature Film. Originally slated for spring 2024, Mickey stars Robert Pattinson, Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo.

Early reviews suggests this is more in line with Joon-ho’s Okja as opposed to Parasite. With 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and 74 on Metacritic, the acclaim isn’t as universal as the multiple Oscar winner. The release date would further suggest that Warner Bros won’t make this a major awards play (though this pattern did work for Dune: Part Two).

That said, some reaction is quite effusive. While Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay (it’s based on a 2022 Edward Ashton novel) could be a stretch, down the line tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Boy and the Heron Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/06): It appears The Boy and the Heron is opening on approximately 2100 screens. That is more than I assumed and my estimate rises from $3.8 million to $8 million

Legendary Japanese animator Hayao Miyazaki (of My Neighbor Totoro, Spirited Away, and Howl’s Moving Castle acclaim) came out of retirement to make The Boy and the Heron. It flies into North American venues on December 8th after robust business overseas. Unsurprisingly, critics are lauding it (97% RT score) as it might battle Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse at the Oscars. The fantasy arrives with a dubbed version for stateside crowds featuring the voices of Christian Bale, Dave Bautista, Gemma Chan, Willem Dafoe, Karen Fukuhara, Mark Hamill, Robert Pattinson, and Florence Pugh.

After debuting in Japan over the summer and expanding to other nations, it has made $83 million thus far. GKIDS is handling North American distribution and it is said to have the widest release in the studio’s history. That said, I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection.

Miyazaki is a bigger draw elsewhere, but he certainly has his ardent fans here. Again, depending on the count, I can’t see this getting below $3 million. Earning over $5 million could be a chore.

The Boy and the Heron opening weekend prediction: $8 million

Oscar Predictions: Stars at Noon

From acclaimed French titles like 1999’s Beau Travail to the recent Robert Pattinson horror pic High Life, filmmaker Claire Denis has her ardent admirers. Based on the 1986 novel by Denis Johnson, her latest is Stars at Noon. It has made its premiere at Cannes.

The romantic thriller features Margaret Qualley and Joe Alwyn in the lead roles with Danny Ramirez, Benny Safdie, and John C. Reilly providing support. The reviews are decent though not overwhelmingly positive and the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 78%.

I suspect the stars won’t align for this to receive any sort of significant awards push in the coming months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 25-27 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/24): The Indian period adventure RRR is slated for a release on over 1100 screens and it could be a sleeper hit for the weekend based on buzz and pre-sales. I’m adding it in the mix for a third place debut.

Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt, and Daniel Radcliffe will try to dislodge The Batman from its three-week perch atop the charts when The Lost City debuts this Friday. It’s the only newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the comedic adventure here:

The Lost City Box Office Prediction

My mid to high 20s estimate for the well reviewed City gets it to first place as long as The Batman sees a drop in the high 30s to low 40s range. It could end up being a close race, but I’m giving Bullock and company the benefit of the doubt.

As for the rest of the top 5, current #2 Jujutsu Kaisen 0 easily surpassed expectations in its debut (more on that below), but the sophomore drop should be steep (similar to the 70% fall of animated manga tale Demon Slayer). That would leave Uncharted in third with Kaisen fourth. In the five spot, Dog (also with Channing Tatum) may have a slighter dip than X in what might be a tight race for that position.

And with that, here’s my take on this Oscar frame’s top 7 performers:

1. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

2. The Batman 

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

3. RRR

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Jujutsu Kaisen 0

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Dog

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. X

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

 

Box Office Results (March 18-20)

While there were newbies to view, The Batman ruled the roost while Jujutsu had a terrific premiere. Robert Pattinson’s debut as the DCEU Crusader took in $36.7 million, below my projection of $42.1 million. The three-week tally sits at an impressive $300 million.

Jujutsu blew away prognostications with $17.6 million. The FUNimation entry (which was already a hit overseas) easily toppled my meager $9.8 million take. Like other genre fare, its opening frame should represent a large portion of the overall domestic gross.

Uncharted was third with $7.8 million. I was right on target at $7.7 million. Total earnings are $125 million.

Horror pic X from A24 capitalized on solid reviews and came in fourth with a decent $4.4 million. That’s ahead of my $2.9 million estimate and it will hope for solid holds in coming weekends.

Dog rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a touch below my $4.6 million prediction. It’s up to $54 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million) and the massive haul is $797 million.

Finally, crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance started in 8th place with a muted $1.4 million. That is better than my $1 million forecast, however.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 11-13 Box Office Predictions

With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.

I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.

Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

3. Dog

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $1.9 million

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.

Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.

Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.

Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…

Oscar Predictions: The Batman

You have to go back to 2008’s The Dark Knight to find the last Batfilm to receive an Oscar nomination. It landed the most of them. While famously missing Best Picture (it’s often called the flick that caused the Academy to expand beyond five nominees), it garnered eight nods and won Supporting Actor (Heath Ledger) and Sound Editing. The other nominations were for Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, Makeup, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. 1989’s Batman was 1 for 1 in its nominations with Art Direction while follow-up Batman Returns was up for Makeup and Visual Effects and Batman Forever received a mention for Sound Effects Editing. Batman Begins from 2005 made the Cinematography final five. Batman and Robin, The Dark Knight Rises, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and Justice League all failed to show up at the big show.

That history lesson is, of course, given to you because reboot The Batman  with Robert Pattinson opens Friday and the review embargo lifted today. Early critical reaction has resulted in an 87% Rotten Tomatoes score thus far. Some write-ups are calling it masterful. Others are more mixed in the praise with some complaints of over length in particular.

So what are its Oscar prospects? As I see it, pretty strong in many of the races mentioned above. That includes Sound (now just one competition), Visual Effects, Production Design (what was Art Direction), Makeup and Hairstyling, Cinematography, and even Original Score (from Michael Giacchino). Director Matt Reeves, taking over the franchise, has experience in the VE derby with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and War for the Planet of the Apes. 

Those down the line nods could be plentiful for The Batman. However, I don’t see it getting Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, or nominations for its actors. It won’t be for lack of social media chatter. We have seen numerous comic book adaptations receive fervent support online (from The Dark Knight to Deadpool to Avengers: Endgame to Spider-Man: No Way Home). Only Black Panther and Joker have made the BP cut. I don’t envision The Batman being the third, but tech nods should happen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 4-6 Box Office Predictions

It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:

The Batman Box Office Prediction

The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.

Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $155.2 million

2. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Dog

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7otIcKb_8Q

Box Office Results (February 25-27)

The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.

Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.

Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.

Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.

Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.

The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…