April 29-May 1 Box Office Predictions

Before Doctor Strange and his Marvel friends dominate the box office next weekend, it should be an unmemorable one as April closes out. The only new release is Liam Neeson’s action thriller Memory and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Memory Box Office Prediction

My meager $3.3 million estimate for Memory (in line with recent Neeson pics) could leave it outside the top five with the family friendly holdovers maintaining the 1-2-3 positions.

The Bad Guys got off to a terrific start (more on that below) and it should easily maintain first position with a drop potentially in the 45-50% range. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore should follow and the 4-5 spots may again be held by The Northman and The Incredible Weight of Massive Talent. Depending on how far Talent falls, it may find itself in a battle for 5th with Memory. However, we also have Everything Everywhere All at Once and it could nab the 5 spot with another meager decline.

And with that, ny take on the weekend’s top 7:

1. The Bad Guys

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million

2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

4. The Northman

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

6. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

7. Memory

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million

Box Office Results (April 22-24)

DreamWorks Animation had an even bigger than anticipated hit on their hands as The Bad Guys did good business at $23.9 million, easily surpassing my $16.7 million projection. As mentioned, it should have little trouble stealing a second weekend at #1 before the Doctor arrives in May.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 held in second with $15.6 million, right in line with my $15.5 million call. The blockbuster sequel has amassed $146 million in its three weeks of release.

The news got worse for Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore. It fell from first to third with a steep 67% sophomore drop at $14 million. I was a tad higher at $15.1 million. In what should be the franchise’s last installment (it’s hard to justify fourth and fifth chapters as originally planned), the two-week tally is a mere $67 million. Reaching $100 million domestically is a stretch.

The Viking action drama The Northman slightly exceeded most prognosticators with $12.2 million in fourth. The Robert Eggers directed tale sailed ahead of my $10.3 million prediction. Problem is – its budget is reportedly a massive $90 million.

Nicolas Cage’s meta comedy The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent opened in fifth with a muted $7.1 million, not quite matching my $7.9 million estimate. Despite glowing reviews, it couldn’t quite branch out beyond cinephiles who attended.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Northman Box Office Prediction

Robert Eggers is an acclaimed director with two critical darlings (The Witch, The Lighthouse) to his credit. His third project is considerably bigger in scale with The Northman, out April 22nd. Budgeted at a rather shocking $90 million, the Viking epic stars Alexander Skarsgard with a supporting cast including Nicole Kidman, Claes Bang, Anya Taylor-Joy, Ethan Hawke, Bjork, and Willem Dafoe.

Just like with his first two efforts, reviews are on the side of Eggers with a current 88% Rotten Tomatoes score. Yet I’m not seeing a marketing effort from Focus Features that inspires confidence (especially considering that price tag). The Witch is the director’s largest earner with $25 million. The Lighthouse took in $10 million. This should top both of them domestically, but certainly not by as much as its studio is hoping for.

If something like Ambulance couldn’t manage a gross north of $10 million, I’m skeptical that The Northman will. I realize it’s not an apples to apples comparison, but they’re both action oriented pictures with no nexus to known IP.

Perhaps I’m feeling generous in that I’ll say The Northman manages to barely squeak into double digits (with low confidence).

The Northman opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my The Bad Guys prediction, click here:

The Bad Guys Box Office Prediction

For my The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent prediction, click here:

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Northman

To call The Northman a box office gamble is an understatement. This is a fantasy bloodbath about Vikings (budgeted at a reported $90 million) from a filmmaker known for low-budget (though beautifully shot) horror tales. Robert Eggers directs with a cast led by Alexander Skarsgard and supporting players consisting of Nicole Kidman, Claes Bang, Anya Taylor-Joy, Ethan Hawke, Bjork, and Willem Dafoe. Its Oscar prospects are iffy as well.

Ahead of its April 22nd stateside bow, the review embargo is lifted. Like 2016’s The Witch and 2019’s The Lighthouse (the director’s previous movies), this is garnering solid reviews at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Whether audiences take to it is yet to be determined.

Critics are particularly praising some of the tech aspects. Costume Design, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects, and Cinematography could all be in play come awards time. Three years ago, The Lighthouse received a Cinematography nod for Jarin Blaschke and he returns behind the camera. For The Lighthouse, Willem Dafoe likely came close to a Supporting Actor nod. I don’t envision any of the cast vying for acting prizes in the third Eggers effort.

Bottom line: don’t expect The Northman to be up for Best Picture or in other major categories. Down the line races could be another story… or it could just as easily end up like 2021’s The Green Knight and come up empty-handed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Will The Indie Spirits Nominees Showcase Oscar Gems?

This afternoon, the nominations for the 35th Independent Spirit Awards were released as we prepare for the onslaught of Oscar precursors to follow. And make no mistake – the Indie Spirits are indeed a precursor. In this decade from 2010-2018, five of the nine Best Feature winners emerged victorious with the Academy for Best Picture: 2011’s The Artist, 2013’s 12 Years a Slave, 2014’s Birdman, 2015’s Spotlight, and 2016’s Moonlight. Some of these years have three or four of the five nominees get Oscar nods in the big race.

However, 2018 marked the first year of this decade when none of the five nominated pictures at the Indies garnered any Academy love. I don’t expect that to occur for a second year in a row.

In this post, I’ll break down Feature, Director, and the four acting races and what it might mean for Oscar:

Best Feature

Nominees: A Hidden Life, Clemency, The Farewell, Marriage Story, Uncut Gems

First things first: Marriage Story is going to get a Best Picture nomination and probably wins here. And it might be the only one here that does. The Farewell has a decent shot and Uncut Gems is a potential sleeper (though I wouldn’t bet on it).

That said, Gems did tie The Lighthouse for most Indie mentions (5). And that brings us back to Marriage Story. The voters here chose to give it a special Robert Altman award honoring the team behind it. That includes cast members Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, Laura Dern, and Alan Alda. They all probably would’ve heard their names here had that not occurred and same goes for director Noah Baumbach. If that seems like a bit of a cheat (taking out probable winners like Driver and Baumbach), I wouldn’t argue. The silver lining is that it does make some of these categories more interesting.

Best Director

Nominees: Robert Eggers (The Lighthouse), Alma Hor’el (Honey Boy), Julius Onah (Luce), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Lorene Scafaria (Hustlers)

Like Best Feature, 2018 saw no directors recognized get Academy attention. With Baumbach getting his Altman award and out of the running, that could certainly happen again as I don’t even have any of these directors in my top ten Oscar possibilities. Perhaps this could help spur chatter for the Safdies or Scafaria. Again… I wouldn’t bet on it.

Best Female Lead

Nominees: Karen Allen (Colewell), Hong Chau (Driveways), Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell), Mary Kay Place (Diane), Alfre Woodard (Clemency), Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Six out of nine winners here from 2010-2018 went onto win the Best Actress statue: Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Brie Larson (Room), and Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri).

Even with Johansson not included, it could be 7/10 as Zellweger is my current Oscar front runner. Woodard and Moss stand shots at nods. The other three need not shop for red carpet dresses.

One noticeable omission is Awkwafina in The Farewell, who many are predicting for Oscar attention. I currently had her on the outside looking in at sixth. That could slide when I update my estimates on Monday.

Best Male Lead

Nominees: Chris Galust (Give Me Liberty), Kelvin Harrison, Jr. (Luce), Robert Pattinson (The Lighthouse), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), Matthias Schoenarts (The Mustang)

Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) are the three Indie/Oscar recipients. Only in 2015 and (yes) 2018 did no nominees get Oscar nods…

I expect that to occur again. I believe only Sandler stands a chance, but it’s a reach based on severe competition.

Best Supporting Female

Nominees: Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Taylor Russell (Waves), Lauren Spencer (Give Me Liberty), Octavia Spencer (Luce), Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)

Four winners here have picked up Academy trophies – Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), and the past two winners Allison Janney (I, Tonya) and Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk).

With soft front runner Laura Dern in the Marriage Story special category thing, we could still see a third year in a row match with Lopez. Zhou and Spencer (to a lesser degree) may also find themselves in the Oscar mix.

And with Taylor Russell’s nod here, it’s a good time to mention that Waves really came up short with the Indies today. That doesn’t help its Oscar viability.

Best Supporting Male

Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Noah Jupe (Honey Boy), Shia LaBeouf (Honey Boy), Jonathan Majors (The Last Black Man in San Francisco), Wendell Pierce (Burning Cane)

This category is another ultra crowded one for Oscar attention, but Dafoe and LaBeouf are legit contenders for nods. Not so with the other three. The omission of Sterling K. Brown in Waves is a surprise.

There have been four Indie/Oscar victors this decade: Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), and Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). With Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and Al Pacino (The Irishman) as likely favorites for the Academy, I wouldn’t expect a fifth match.

And there you have it, folks! My take on the Indies and which Oscar gems they could produce…

Oscar Watch: The Lighthouse

Four years ago, Robert Eggers made his directorial debut with The Witch and it was a darling on the indie circuit and with critics. His eagerly awaited follow-up is The Lighthouse and it’s premiered at the Cannes Film Festival. Early buzz is solid on the black and white horror flick.

Willem Dafoe and Robert Pattinson (who’s been in the news a lot this week due to his apparent casting as Batman) are two lighthouse keepers in the late 19th century who slowly delve into madness. Reviews suggest it’s quite effective if audiences choose to go along with it. That part remains to be seen.

The likelihood is that The Lighthouse won’t be much of a factor come awards time. However, there could be an exception. Jarin Blaschke’s cinematography has drawn raves and there could be calls from critics for him to be recognized. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Witch Box Office Prediction

When it premiered last year at the Sundance Film Festival, horror pic The Witch received mostly raves (it sits at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes… frighteningly good for that genre). We’ll see how that translates to box office dollars when it opens wide next weekend.

The 17th Century set tale of witchcraft features a cast of relative unknowns and comes from first time director Robert Eggers, who also wrote this critically acclaimed effort. The film has received a rather modest marketing push and anything above double digits would be quite an accomplishment.

Considering its tiny reported $1 million budget, however, A24 Films is poised to see a tidy return on their investment. The Witch should earn anywhere from $4-8 million and I’ll go in the middle range of that spectrum.

The Witch opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million