Tag: Rita Moreno

2021 Golden Globe Predictions

Let’s begin with this blanket statement… I’m basically flying a bit blind with my predictions for the Golden Globe Awards, which will be revealed tomorrow morning. For those who don’t follow the awards derbies closely like I do, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has been in some considerable hot water for the last couple of years. So much so that NBC has decided they won’t air the January 9th ceremony due to lack of diversity for its voting membership. There were genuine questions as to whether the HFPA would even hold an event for their 79th awards, but they are pushing forward amidst the controversy.

Then there’s the simply the matter of the Globes being quite unpredictable. We tend to see a shocker nomination at least once a year… remember Kate Hudson’s nod in Actress (Musical/Comedy) for the barely seen and critically reviled Sia directed Music in 2020? Then the voters went ahead and nominated the picture itself!

Last year in Supporting Actress, Jodie Foster scored a surprise nomination and win for The Mauritanian. The Academy didn’t even bother to nominate her. In Supporting Actor, both Jared Leto (The Little Things) and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) made the cut in Supporting Actor though not at the Oscars. This is why my general rule at the Globes is to fill in bigger names when I’ve got a spot or two left over in an acting race.

The HFPA’s method of dividing Drama and Musical/Comedy always creates category questions and that holds true in 2021. Where’s CODA? Or House of Gucci and C’Mon C’Mon? Or Being the Ricardos. We don’t know. For prediction purposes, I’m putting them in Drama. Obviously, if they’re not, that would alter my estimates and make some of my calls moot.

Let’s take go through the categories one by one and see how this guesswork turns out, shall we? I’ll do a runner-up and second alternate for each race as well.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Dune

King Richard

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: CODA

Second Alternate: The Tragedy of Macbeth

Commentary – At this point, Belfast, Dune, King Richard, and Power of the Dog seem like pretty safe bets. Any one of them missing out would be considered a significant snub. The fifth slot is wide open in my view. The surging CODA (if it’s placed in Drama) could certainly make the cut. Tragedy is a strong possibility and I wouldn’t count out Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon and House of Gucci (if they’re in Drama), The Last Duel, or Spencer. Despite some critical reservations, I’ll go with Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley. It’s important to remember that foreign films are relegated to their own category at the Globes. That’s why Parasite didn’t show up here two years ago and it’s why A Hero or Drive My Car won’t contend in this competition.

Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

Predicted Nominees:

Cyrano

Don’t Look Up

Licorice Pizza

Tick Tick… Boom!

West Side Story

Runner-Up: In the Heights

Second Alternate: Cruella

Commentary – The Musical/Comedy derby actually has a bunch of musicals to choose from in 2021 and West Side Story and Tick Tick… Boom! especially seem like surefire additions. Between In the Heights and Cyrano, I’m giving the latter a slight edge (though both could make it). Licorice Pizza should get in though I’m a tad more unsure about Don’t Look Up. I would generally say the top six listed here will be duking it out for five slots (Cruella is kind of a throwaway addition but if Music could get in…)

**Note that pics like CODA, Gucci, or Being the Ricardos could be campaigned for here and not Drama and that could change the dynamic.

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Runner-Up: Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Second Alternate: Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Commentary – Feeling good about Branagh, Campion, Spielberg, and Villeneuve. The 5 spot is tougher but I’ll give del Toro the nod over Anderson (who, somehow, has never been nominated for a Globe).

Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actress)

Predicted Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Runner-Up: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Second Alternate: Jodie Comer, The Last Duel

Commentary – So here’s when it gets truly complicated as Gaga, Hudson, and Kidman could all theoretically wind up in Musical/Comedy. If not, both Gaga and Kidman seem like likely nominees in Drama. So do Chastain and Stewart. I’m picking Hudson over considerable competition that includes Colman, Comer, Emilia Jones in CODA (if placed here), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), and Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).

Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama (Actor)

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Second Alternate: Nicolas Cage, Pig

Commentary – Cumberbatch, Smith, and Washington are obvious choices. The other two slots – not so much. Phoenix could be in Musical/Comedy, but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt and put him here. Same with runner-up Bardem. As much as I’d like to anoint Cage for Pig, I’ll hedge with Cooper in Alley. Super dark horse choice: Clifton Collins, Jr. in Jockey. 

Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actress)

Predicted Nominees:

Haley Bennett, Cyrano

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

Emma Stone, Cruella

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Runner-Up: Melissa Barrera, In the Heights

Second Alternate: Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World

Once again – there’s some women I have in Drama that might shift over this way (Gaga, Hudson, Kidman, Jones). That would make this category more interesting as, right now, this is Zegler’s to lose based on my current composition. If serious hopefuls like Gaga and Kidman stay in Drama, this race could be ripe for an out of nowhere pick (I’m thinking either Annie Mumolo or Kristin Wiig in Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar).

Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy (Actor)

Predicted Nominees:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!

Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Ryan Reynolds, Free Guy

Runner-Up: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Second Alternate: Simon Rex, Red Rocket

Commentary – The first four seem probable and the safer choice for #5 would be Hoffman (that’s if Joaquin Phoenix or Javier Bardem don’t play here). I gotta pick at least one head scratcher though so let’s throw in Reynolds for the hit Free Guy!

Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actress)

Predicted Nominees:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Runner-Up: Rita Moreno, West Side Story

Second Alternate: Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

Commentary – Balfe, DeBose, Dunst, and Ellis are likely. If any of that quartet miss, it could be Dunst. I’m utilizing my aforementioned big name theory by picking Streep in the five spot. Could be Moreno or Blanchett and the star power could overshadow other possibilities like Ruth Negga (Passing) or Ann Dowd (Mass).

Best Supporting Performance in a Motion Picture (Supporting Actor)

Predicted Nominees:

Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Jared Leto, House of Gucci

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Runner-Up: Mike Faist, West Side Story

Second Alternate: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Commentary – No one can really make heads or tails of Supporting Actor in 2021 so there’s some winging it happening. I’ll say both Belfast boys get in while HFPA recognizes Cooper’s limited screen time in Pizza and Leto’s out there performance in Gucci. Smit-McPhee has been picking up critics awards and that could get him in. Truth be told… anything could happen in this one.

Best Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

West Side Story

Runner-Up: King Richard

Second Alternate: Being the Ricardos

The one I’m uncertain about is Don’t Look Up with its many lackluster reviews, but I’ll go for it over Richard. I also wouldn’t completely dismiss Ricardos due to the Aaron Sorkin factor.

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

Encanto

Flee

Luca

The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Vivo

Runner-Up: Raya and the Last Dragon

Second Alternate: Belle

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

Drive My Car

Flee

A Hero

Titane

The Worst Person in the World

Runner-Up: Parallel Mothers

Second Alternate: The Hand of God

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

Dune

Nightmare Alley

The Power of the Dog

Spencer

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up: The French Dispatch

Second Alternate: Don’t Look Up

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

“Be Alive” from King Richard

“Down to Joy” from Belfast

“Every Letter” from Cyrano

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up

“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die

Runner-Up: “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto

Second Alternate: “So May We Start” from Annette

My picks equate to the following scorecard in terms of total nominations:

7 Nominations

Belfast, The Power of the Dog

6 Nominations

Don’t Look Up

5 Nominations

West Side Story

4 Nominations

Cyrano, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Nightmare Alley

3 Nominations

Dune

2 Nominations

Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Tragedy of Macbeth

1 Nomination

Being the Ricardos, C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Drive My Car, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Free Guy, A Hero, In the Heights, Luca, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Respect, Titane, Vivo, The Worst Person in the World

I’ll have a post up later tomorrow with my results! Critics Choice predictions are next…

2021 Oscar Predictions: December 7th Edition

***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.

For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.

Other changes in the main races:

    • Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect. 
    • Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
    • Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon. 
    • In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)

8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)

13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)

14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)

15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Daughter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

Pablo Larrain, Spencer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epoyDw8EU9I&t=1s

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-hFLl7mYlw

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)

4. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (+2)

5. A Hero (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Parallel Mothers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (-1)

4. CODA (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Humans (PR: 8) (E)

9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tick Tick Boom! 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (E)

7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Vivo (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

2. Drive My Car (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

4. Attica (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Procession (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)

8. President (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ascension (PR: 9) (E)

10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cyrano

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Being the Ricardos

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E))

4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)

5. King Richard (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

House of Gucci

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

8. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Suicide Squad

Licorice Pizza

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)

9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

House of Gucci 

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)

8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)

9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)

10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Last Duel

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nightmare Alley

And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

10 Nominations

Belfast

9 Nominations

West Side Story

8 Nominations

The Power of the Dog

6 Nominations

King Richard, Nightmare Alley

5 Nominations

Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3 Nominations

CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!

2 Nominations

Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter

1 Nomination

Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

West Side Story Box Office Prediction

Coming off screenings which indicate it should play in numerous Oscar categories, Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story sashays into theaters December 10th. Arriving a year later than anticipated due to COVID, the musical romance (based on the play from Arthur Laurents, Leonard Bernstein, and the late Stephen Sondheim) stars Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler (in her film debut), Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Rita Moreno, Brian d’Arcy James, and Corey Stoll. The $100 million project follows up on the 1961 classic that generated 10 Academy wins including Picture and Ms. Moreno in Supporting Actress. DeBose takes over that role and it could nab her a nomination. Same goes for Moreno (and possibly Zegler and Alvarez or Faist).

The pandemic related delay means this is Spielberg’s first behind the camera effort in nearly four years behind Ready Player One. Musicals are always a tricky proposition at the box office, but familiarity with the source material and the encouraging buzz should help. Movies geared towards adults have faced a tough road in these times, but House of Gucci proved the right project can bring in an older (and female) crowd.

It’s pretty common to see December offerings premiere with non-gaudy numbers and then leg out nicely over the season. This might be the case here. A debut of $20 million or higher seems a tad unlikely and I’ll project low to mid teens as the awards chatter could eventually get this Story close to its budget domestically.

West Side Story opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my National Champions prediction, click here:

National Champions Box Office Prediction

2021 Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

As December dawns, the story of my latest Oscar predictions is West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the musical has been in my ten Best Picture nominees for some time. However, the solid buzz emanating from screenings gives it a bump from #8 to #4. Additionally, Spielberg is now in my five for Director and that takes out Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley. 

Speaking of Alley, we will have a far better idea of its viability later today when it gets its first look from critics and the social embargo is lifted. It’s fair to say that Alley is the final major contender to be unveiled and that makes an even clearer picture will be available for my next round.

In other developments:

    • While my five Best Actress picks remain the same, Rachel Zegler’s performance in West Side Story jumps from 10th to 6th.
    • The five slot in Best Actor shifts once again from Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) to Peter Dinklage in Cyrano. 
    • Rita Moreno’s work in West Side Story puts her in the five for the first time (and top ten for that matter). If my prediction comes true, she could join costar Ariana DeBose (who plays the role for which Moreno won her Oscar sixty years ago). It would also make her the oldest nominee in Academy history. Ann Dowd (Mass) falls out of the 5.
    • The wide open Supporting Actor derby sees Jamie Dornan (Belfast) in and Jason Isaacs (Mass) out.
    • King Richard returns to Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon, which goes from 3 estimated nods in my previous post to zero.
    • West Side Story makes the cut for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of The Humans.
    • Flee drops from the #1 spot in Animated Feature with Encanto in. Yet it rises to first in Documentary Feature over The Rescue.

You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next week!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)

4. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)

6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. CODA (PR: 12) (+1)

12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)

15. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spencer

Flee

Mass

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)

5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (E)

9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)

10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mass (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spencer

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)

4. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. CODA (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Humans (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Last Duel 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Encanto (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Flee (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)

9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)

10. Vivo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Charlotte

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)

3. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Flee (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Memoria

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Flee (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Rescue (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

4. Procession (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The First Wave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. President (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Ailey

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Spencer (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)

9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

C’Mon C’Mon

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

2. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)

5. West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)

8. King Richard (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Being the Ricardos

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Spencer (PR: 4) (+1)

5. Cruella (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

7. West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (E)

9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Green Knight

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-2)

8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (+3)

5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

10. “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Belfast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Spencer (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)

10. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)

10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Tick Tick… Boom!

The Matrix Resurrections 

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

3. Eternals (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Free Guy (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Finch (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Suicide Squad

And that equates to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune

10 Nominations

Belfast

9 Nominations

West Side Story

8 Nominations

The Power of the Dog

6 Nominations

Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5 Nominations

Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza

4 Nominations

Spencer

3 Nominations

Being the Ricardos, Flee

2 Nominations

Cruella, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter

1 Nomination

Belle, Drive My Car, Encanto, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Humans, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World

Oscar Predictions: West Side Story

Sixty years ago, West Side Story emerged triumphant at the Oscars. The musical romance (adapted from the Broadway show by Arthur Laurents, Leonard Bernstein and the recently departed Stephen Sondheim) won an astonishing 10 Academy Awards including Picture, Director, and both supporting races for George Chakiris and Rita Moreno.

On December 10th comes the long awaited remake from Steven Spielberg starring Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler, Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, and Ms. Moreno returning to the project that put the O in her EGOT. While the review embargo is still intact, screenings this evening have lifted the social media one. Early word indicates the new Story could be headed for numerous nods as well.

I’ve had this pegged in my ten Best Picture contenders for quite some time and the buzz gives me no pause to change that. Whether Spielberg makes the cut for his eighth directing nod (he’s won twice for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan) is a bit more uncertain though it’s certainly possible. Like the 1961 original, its best shot at acting inclusion lies not with the leads. The studio isn’t even campaigning Elgort (this is likely due to some personal issues that surfaced last year). I wouldn’t completely count out Zegler (and she’s getting raves for her cinematic debut), but the Actress derby is packed with hopefuls. In Supporting Actor, David Alvarez could contend for the role that got Chakiris a statue. So might Mike Faist. The Supporting Actor competition appears wide open and if voters truly fall for the project as a whole, either could be swept in. DeBose in Supporting Actress is the most feasible performer that could make the final five in Supporting Actress (though that race has its share of legit contenders too). If so, she’d be up for the same part that nabbed Moreno her hardware. And it’s also possible that Moreno herself could make a play. Adapted Screenplay is also a question mark as screenplays for musicals sometimes face an uphill battle.

Down the line possibilities are plentiful: Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Production Design, and Sound. It could be up for any and all and it’s hard to imagine the last three not being close to shoo-in nominations. If all goes right – Story could match the 10 nominations from six decades ago. The most optimistic projection could put it at more. I’m most comfortable proclaiming Picture and at least three tech nods (and probably DeBose) get in. We’ll see if the chatter (and box office) in the coming days elevates this even more. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

2021 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actress Race

The 2021 derby for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars might have a bit more clarity than the currently wide open Supporting Actor race, but not much. I’m doing a deep dive on the four acting races as well as Picture and Director. If you missed the first post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it right here:

2021 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

At this point when I was projecting the race in 2019 and 2020, I correctly identified three out of the five eventual nominees. Two years ago, that included the winner Laura Dern in Marriage Story as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie for Bombshell. Scarlett Johansson was mentioned in Other Possibilities while I didn’t have Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) listed. Last year, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were in my five. Eventual victor Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were in Other Possibilities.

Since 2010, there have been three instances where two actresses for the same picture made the cut here. In 2010, it was Melissa Leo (who won) and Amy Adams in The Fighter. A year later, Octavia Spencer took gold for The Help while costar Jessica Chastain also got in. In 2018, both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were nominated for The Favourite. 

The best chance of that happening in 2021 lies with Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench for Belfast. The former could be considered the frontrunner at press time. I’m confident that Balfe will be in the quintet of hopefuls. My Supporting Actor forecast has both Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds in for Kenneth Branagh’s period drama. It might be foolish to bet against Dench and she could absolutely get her 8th nod. I do, however, feel the competition is steeper than Supporting Actor at the moment and she could miss out.

Other double nominee possibilities lie with Jessie Buckley and Dakota Johnson in The Lost Daughter, but I could just as easily see lead Olivia Colman garnering all the attention. The as yet unscreened Nightmare Alley could see either Toni Collette or Rooney Mara competing.

Then there’s Mass. Ann Dowd looks to be a better bet than Martha Plimpton. If the acclaimed drama catches on with the Academy, there could be room for both. For now, I’m far more confident in Dowd receiving her first nod after her somewhat surprise omission for 2012’s Compliance. 

With Balfe and Dowd penciled in, Kirsten Dunst also appears headed for her inaugural inclusion at the dance for The Power of the Dog. She could even be a threat to win.

After that, it gets murky. There’s plenty of hopefuls. 50 years ago, Rita Moreno took gold as Anita for West Side Story. The forthcoming remake could see Ariana DeBose nominated for the same role in Steven Spielberg’s remake. Marlee Matlin (35 years after taking Best Actress for Children of a Lesser God) got fine reviews for CODA. If the film registers with voters, she could be swept in. King Richard is anticipated to give Will Smith a solid chance at his first Oscar crowning and Aunjanue Ellis (as the mother of Venus and Serena Williams) could share in the wealth. Salma Hayek is part of the House of Gucci ensemble. She hasn’t been visible in the trailers and that gives me pause. Online chatter will be heavy for Rebecca Ferguson in Dune, though I question whether any of its cast makes its way in. Also worthy of mention: Olga Merediz (In the Heights), Gaby Hoffman (C’Mon C’Mon), Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Sally Hawkins (Spencer), and Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans). All are feasible but will need lot some critics prizes to elevate their chances.

Meryl Streep is gunning for her 22nd (!) nomination for Don’t Look Up. Playing the President of the United States in the political satire, it feels strange to leave her out of the top 5 for such a high profile role. Let’s see what the critics think before I more carefully consider her.

One performer who seems to catching on is Ruth Negga for Passing. Nominated for Actress five years back for Loving, I was basically down to a coin flip between her and Aunjanue Ellis for a current slot. I’m leaning toward Negga in what would probably be the film’s sole nod.

Bottom line: right now I have Balfe, Dunst, and Dowd as (fairly) safe bets with the other two spots up for grabs. Here’s where it shakes out as October closes:

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)

3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3)

4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4)

7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7)

8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9)

9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley

Next up: Best Actor!