On November 29th, Matthew Heineman’s documentary American Symphony plays on Netflix after being on the festival circuit beginning at Telluride. It recounts a year in the life of Grammy winning musician Jon Batiste and family.
Heineman is no stranger to awards hopefuls in the genre. 2015’s Cartel Land made the quintet of nominees. 2021’s The First Wave and last year’s Retrograde were discussed for attention and was up in other precursors though each failed to make the Academy cut.
Symphony is at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and scored six Critics Choice nods at their ceremony over the weekend honoring true life works. It won two with Best Music Documentary and Score (losing the main prize to Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie).
Drawing a correlation between Critics Choice and the Academy is risky. As I’ve discussed numerous times, the doc branch of voters at the big ceremony are unpredictable. Symphony stands an excellent shot at making the eventual quintet, but it’s gotta make the shortlist first and surprises seem to occur there every year when revealed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ahead of Sunday evening’s Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, it’s the producers turn on Saturday night. The 34th PGA Awards winner for their best in show has matched the Oscar Picture victor 70% of the time in the previous decade. The times they diverged were 2015 with PGA naming The Big Short instead of Spotlight, 2016 with La La Land over Moonlight, and 2019 when 1917 took the producer prize as opposed to Parasite. PGA also has animated and documentary competitions. I’m walking through them one by one with a winner and runner-up projection.
Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
There’s a 7 for 10 correlation with the PGA contenders and the BP hopefuls from the Academy. The former has Black Panther, Glass Onion, and The Whale up while the Oscars went with All Quiet on the Western Front, Triangle of Sadness, and Women Talking. The PGA is known for favoring blockbusters over some smaller pics from time to time. Previous examples that didn’t make the Academy’s cut include Bridesmaids, Skyfall, Gone Girl, Straight Outta Compton, Deadpool, Wonder Woman, and Crazy Rich Asians.
This helps explain why some prognosticators are favoring Maverick to take PGA’s highest award. Another explanation is that pundits are attempting to make the race more exciting than it actually is. I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is still most likely to emerge. Maverick does warrant runner-up status.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix rendering of the classic tale has cleaned up with precursors and there’s no reason to believe it won’t with PGA.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
Nominees:
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory
I wrongly picked Fire of Love to win the BAFTA instead of Navalny. Have I learned my lesson? Nope! I’m doubling down and saying a Fire PGA victory will make the Oscar quintet more competitive.
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
I’ll have a recap up Saturday evening or Sunday ahead of the SAG show. If you missed my SAG predictions, they can be accessed here:
It has been two weeks since my last Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired since. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards aired. SAG nominations came out. So did the BAFTA shortlists and PGA and DGA contenders.
All of this has made the puzzle a little clearer. Yet the fact remains – Oscar will Oscar when noms are released in a week. This is my penultimate forecast. Final predictions will arrive this weekend. Tonight’s estimates are your last look at rankings. It will simply be the listed picks a few days from now with commentary and a runner-up projection in each feature film category.
Here’s the latest developments as we are almost at the end of the line:
The Whale rises as it is back in my top 10 BP nominees. Women Talking falls out. A similar scenario in Supporting Actress as The Whale‘s Hong Chau is in over Women Talking‘s Claire Foy. After victories at the Globes and Critics Choice, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) vaults over Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) for the #1 slot in Supporting Actress.
On the other hand, I’m putting Austin Butler (Elvis) back in first over Brendan Fraser (The Whale). This is essentially a coin flip with Colin Farrell from Banshees as a legit spoiler.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) returns to the directorial quintet and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is out.
In Actress, Viola Davis (The Woman King) at last makes the cut with Margot Robbie (Babylon) dropping. That’s not the only news in this derby. I almost went with Ana de Armas (Blonde) instead of Davis. And there’s the recent development of Andrea Riseborough’s online campaign for the micro budget indie drama To Leslie. Numerous performers, including Cate Blanchett, have boarded the Riseborough bandwagon. Two weeks ago – she was on no one’s radar screen. Now the buzz is enough to put her in 8th.
You can read all the movement below and look for those FINAL predictions this weekend!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)
6. Elvis (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Whale (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 11) (E)
12. RRR (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Women Talking (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 14) (E)
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (+3)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Sandler, Hustle (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 2) (-1)
4. She Said (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. White Noise (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (E)
7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 4) (E)
5. EO (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Bardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Quiet Girl (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Navalny (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The Territory (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bad Axe (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Last Flight Home (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Janes
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Living (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2 (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Blonde (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Emancipation (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nomnees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Women Talking (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (-3)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (+1)
2. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (-1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Good Afternoon” from Spirited (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-2)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Elvis (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nope (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Whale
4 Nominations
Babylon, Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness
2 Nominations
Living, The Woman King, Women Talking
1 Nominations
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, EO, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, She Said, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, Wendell and Wild
My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.
While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.
In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.
While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.
We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)
13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)
4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)
3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)
7. EO (PR: 7) (E)
8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)
9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Babylon
5 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
Living
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
My last Oscar Predictions for this calendar year comes with no changes in Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, or the screenplay competitions. Yet not all is quiet. I’m finally giving Netflix a BP entrant, but it’s not Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (though I considered it). All Quiet on the Western Front is in the 10 and that knocks out Triangle of Sadness.
Let’s talk Babylon. I came very close to dropping it from my BP list after its dismal box office performance and a C+ Cinemascore grade. It’s clinging to the race in 10th. I almost replaced it with The Whale (which has also received plenty of mixed reaction). I have a gut feeling that one of them still makes the cut and I’m leaning toward the former at the moment.
In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy’s work in Women Talking is out in favor of costar Jessie Buckley. That would mark her second nomination in as many years.
There’s new #1s in International Feature Film with All Quiet displacing Decision to Leave and Documentary Feature with Navalny leaping over All That Breathes.
And, of course, the shortlists released Wednesday are reflected in various categories below. I’ll have my first estimates in calendar year 2023 up next weekend as we inch closer to nomination morning!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tár (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Whale (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (E)
13. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-3)
14. RRR (PR: 11) (-3)
15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
She Said
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: ) (-2)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)
9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)
8. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Menu (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Elvis
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 2) (E)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Son
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)
4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Inu-Oh (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Sea Beast
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1 . All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Close (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)
7. EO (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joyland (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Klondike
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Navalny (PR: 2) (+1)
2. All That Breathes (PR: 1) (-1)
3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Fire of Love (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Descendant (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Janes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bad Axe (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Good Night Oppy
Sr.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)
5. Living (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tár
Decision to Leave
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Crimes of the Future (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Woman King
X
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
10. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Empire of Light
The Batman
White Noise
Tár
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Empire of Light
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Moonage Daydream (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nope
RRR
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Nope (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
RRR
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Good Night Oppy
That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nods:
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Elvis,Everything Everywhere All at Once
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, The Whale
2 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, She Said, My Father’s Dragon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
Shortlists covering seven of the feature film races at the Oscars were unveiled this afternoon. We now know the 15 pictures that will contend for Best Original Score, Original Song, International Feature Film, and Documentary Feature. Additionally, we have our 10 finalists for Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects.
I’ll go over each competition below, but I went 62 for 90 in my overall picks. It was a good day for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and All Quiet on the Western Front. They got in everywhere they reasonably could have.
With The Batman and Everything Everywhere All at Once, it was a mixed announcement as both made the cut for some and not others where they were expected to. The documentary Good Night Oppy had perhaps the worst day. It was widely anticipated to get in for Documentary and (to a lesser degree) Visual Effects and made neither.
Let’s break it down! **Selections that I correctly called are in bold
Best Original Score
Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Devotion
Don’t Worry Darling
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Nope
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
HOW I DID: 9/15
The most notable omissions here are Empire of Light and The Batman while Devotion in particular wasn’t expected to be included. I also incorrectly named Bardo, Living, RRR, and White Noise. My top 5 from my projections 3 days ago (Women Talking, Babylon, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, The Banshees of Inisherin) remain.
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Dust and Ash” from The Voice of Dust and Ash
“Good Afternoon” from Spirited
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“My Mind & Me” from Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
“Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
“Til You’re Home” from A Man Called Otto
“Time” from Amsterdam
HOW I DID: 10/15
As expected, there’s some heavy hitters in the mix with Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Selena Gomez (who I didn’t predict). The highest profile omission is Billie Eilish for “Nobody Like U” in Turning Red. My other misses were “Keep Rising” from The Woman King, “On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me (a miss for Jennifer Lopez), and “Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile.
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Last Film Show (India)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
HOW I DID: 13/15
My best showing as I incorrectly had Spain’s Alcarras and Mars One from Brazil. India saved a little face with Last Film Show getting in. They didn’t select RRR and it could have won. There are really no major surprises here.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Children of the Mist
Descendant
Fire of Love
Hallelujah: Leonardo Cohen, a Journey, a Song
Hidden Letters
A House Made of Splinters
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
The Territory
HOW I DID: 10/15
I took a swing by not including The Territory and it got in. As forthe aforementioned Good Night Oppy and Sr., they were anticipated to be here and are not. My other whiffs were Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, Riotsville, U.S.A., and Wildcat. My high five from December 18th – All That Breathes, Navalny, Fire of Love, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Descendant – remain.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Crimes of the Future
Elvis
Emancipation
The Whale
HOW I DID: 7/10
Here’s a race where Everything Everywhere isn’t to be found. I also went with Three Thousand Years of Longing and The Woman King. Once again my top five from the weekend is in. The Crimes of the Future nod is truly unexpected.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 7/10
Once again my quintet of picks from 3 days ago are safe. Nope is a significant omission as is RRR (Thirteen Lives is my other miss). The unexpected addition of the Bowie doc Moonage Daydream is being praised.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Jurassic World: Dominion
Nope
ThirteenLives
Top Gun: Maverick
HOW I DID: 6/10
Here’s where my predicted five will undoubtedly be altered when I make my update. I had Everything Everywhere and RRR at 3rd and 4th, respectively. They are gone. I also incorrectly called Good Night Oppy and Thor: Love and Thunder. This means Avatar (which should win), Maverick, and Multiverse are the trio remaining that I projected. In my view, this bodes well for Panther getting in. The fifth slot is far trickier to estimate at the moment.
And that does it for now, folks! I’ll have updated predictions in all races up before Christmas!
The Academy, as they do every year, whittles down a few of their races to a set 10-15 contenders before announcing the final five on January 24th. This occurs tomorrow. For Original Score and Song and International Feature Film and Documentary Feature, the list goes down to 15. For Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects – it drops to 10. There are surprises every year. In 2021, Titane was shockingly left out of International Feature Film.
I’m giving you my predicted shortlists for all 7 feature film derbies with some commentary. I’ll have a recap up tomorrow!
Best Original Score
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Bardo
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
Nope
RRR
White Noise
The Woman King
Women Talking
***She Said was just on the outside looking in and I wouldn’t discount A Man Called Otto either.
Best Original Song
Predicted Shortlist:
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
“Good Tonight” from The Bad Guys
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Keep Rising” from The Woman King
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“New Body Rhumba” from White Noise
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water
“On My Way (Marry Me)” from Marry Me
“Ready As I’ll Ever Be” from The Return of Tanya Tucker – Featuring Brandi Carlile
“Stand Up” from Till
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
***Leaving “Love Is Not Love” from Bros off was tough and don’t discount a tune (probably “Carried Away”) from Lyle Lyle Crocodile.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Shortlist:
Alcarras (Spain)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Bardo (Mexico)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
Close (Belgium)
Corsage (Austria)
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
EO (Poland)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Mars One (Netherlands)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
Saint Omer (France)
***No love for Japan’s Plan 75 or Ukraine’s Klondike (which would be a surprise omission), but both could easily surface. I also don’t have India’s Last Film Show making the cut. If it doesn’t, that would confirm that nation’s error in not putting up RRR.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Shortlist:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Descendant
Fire of Love
Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down
Good Night Oppy
The Janes
Last Flight Home
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Retrograde
Riotsville U.S.A.
Sr.
Wildcat
***My major snub here is The Territory. I also left Sidney (about the legendary Poitier) out which is certainly risky.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Shortist:
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Three Thousand Years of Longing
The Whale
The Woman King
***I so wanted to put X here, but didn’t pull the trigger. All Quiet on the Western Front, Emancipation, and The Fabelmans are all viable too.
Best Sound
Predicted Shortlist:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
***Leaving out Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is risky and this is another category where The Fabelmans is possible. Same goes for The Woman King.
Best Visuasl Effects
Predicted Shortlist:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Good Night Oppy
Nope
RRR
Thor: Love and Thunder
Top Gun: Maverick
***Look out for All Quiet on the Western Front and maybe Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio.
It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.
There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.
The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.
While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.
I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).
We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)
14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Decision to Leave
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)
9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)
Dropped Out:
Nina Hoss, Tár
Keke Palmer, Nope
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bardo
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bones and All
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)
2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)
5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)
2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)
3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)
8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)
10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alcarras
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)
4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Batman
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Women Talking
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)
5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. X (PR: -1)
9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)
9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Living
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)
5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)
10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)
10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fabelmans
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)
8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Elvis
6 Nominations
Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking
4 Nominations
Tár
3 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale
2 Nominations
The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King
Elvis vaults 6 spots from 15th to 9th in Best Picture for my first Oscar predictions in two weeks and we have changes in Best Director and three of the four acting derbies. Baz Luhrmann’s biopic could be an example (like Top Gun: Maverick and potentially Avatar: The Way of Water) of the Academy showing love to the blockbusters keeping patrons in the theaters. My inclusion of Elvis excludes Triangle of Sadness from the estimated ten.
While Babylon is still in BP, Damien Chazelle drops with Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) in for the directing quintet.
That fifth slot in Best Actor remains constantly changing. It’s Hugh Jackman (The Son) back in the mix over Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick). In Supporting Actress, Stephanie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once falls out in favor of costar Jamie Lee Curtis. Barry Keoghan from Banshees returns to the Supporting Actor fold over Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans.
Finally, Everything Everywhere is the new leader in terms of overall nominations with Babylon and The Fabelmans each losing a bit of ground.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Babylon (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elvis (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-2)
12. She Said (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)
10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)
2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Smith, Emancipation
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)
9. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 9) (E)
10. Keke Palmer, Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)
5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Corsage
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Batman (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
She Said
White Noise
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Song Chord” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Stand Up” from Till
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)
8. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Batman (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)
5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Fabelmans (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nope (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)
5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)
7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-2)
8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)
9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
All Quiet on the Western Front
And that equates to these movies garnering these numbers in terms of nods:
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
10 Nominations
The Fabelmans
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
7 Nominations
Babylon, Women Talking
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
5 Nominations
The Whale
4 Nominations
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
1 Nomination
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Bad Guys, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Holy Spider, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red, White Noise, The Woman King
Documentarian Matthew Heineman is no stranger to tackling hot button issues and awards voters have rewarded his features in the past. 2015’s Cartel Land was an Oscar nominee for Documentary Feature. Additional acclaim was bestowed upon 2017’s City of Ghosts and last year’s The First Wave, which took us into a NYC hospital at the height of the COVID epidemic. Heineman’s lone fictional work was 2018’s A Private War, in which Rosamund Pike nabbed a Golden Globe Best Actress nod in the Drama competition.
His latest is the Nat Geo produced Retrograde, recounting America’s final nine months in the Afghanistan War. It’s out already on an awards qualifying run prior to a December 11th Hulu bow. Initial reviews are typical for the filmmaker at 96% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Both Ghosts and Wave didn’t make the Academy’s cut. If Retrograde can manage to make the shortlist, it could certainly vie for one of the five spots. Based on recent history, I’m not yet comfortable slotting it there. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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