Tag: Ray Winstone

Oscar Predictions: Damsel

As we await the final season of Stranger Things and a third Enola Holmes tale, Millie Bobby Brown’s Netflix adventures continue this weekend in Damsel. The fantasy comes from Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, best known for making zombie sequel 28 Weeks Later. Brown headlines with a supporting cast including Ray Winstone, Angela Bassett, Brooke Carter, Nick Robinson, Robin Wright, and Shohreh Aghdashloo voicing a dragon.

Reviews are of the mixed variety at 59% on RT. The genre can lead to certain tech nods. However, some of the criticism is directed toward the CGI and visual effects appears to be a non-starter. I doubt Netflix will stress Damsel in any awards campaign months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my estimates down from $23.3 million to $18.3 million for the three-day and $37.4 million to $28.5 million for the five-day

Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t the only sequel that some critics say improves on the original during this holiday season. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish steps into theaters on December 21st eleven years after its predecessor. The DreamWorks Animation adventure finds Antonio Banderas reprising his voice work as the feline fugitive alongside Salma Hayek’s Kitty Softpaws. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, Samson Kayo, John Mulaney, Wagner Moura, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Joel Crawford, who last helmed The Croods: A New Age, directs.

You may recall the first Boots arrived in 2011 as a spin-off for the massive Shrek franchise. The title character was introduced in 2004 with Shrek 2. Opening in October, Puss grossed with $34 million during its opening weekend with a $149 million eventual domestic haul.

If a decade plus seems like a long time between sequels, you’d be correct. That could be a demerit for its earnings potential. There was a Netflix animated series from 2015-2018 starring the character (without Banderas purring the lines). What will help its case is the word-of-mouth. Boots currently sports a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and that tops part 1’s 86%. It has already nabbed a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Golden Globes. This is also the only feature not named Avatar catering to a family audience. Obviously this should also bring in very young viewers not looking to wade into Mr. Cameron’s pool.

A second place start behind Water is a given. I believe this could manage a five-day premiere in the mid to possibly high 30s. While that’s not hitting what the original accomplished in 3 days, Wish appears poised to hold up well in future weekends.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Babylon prediction, click here:

Babylon Box Office Prediction

For my Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody prediction, click here:

Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

If you’d told me in the spring that Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was better suited for an Animated Feature Oscar nomination than Disney’s Lightyear or Strange World, I might’ve questioned your awards prognosticating abilities. With its embargo lifted prior to the December 21st theatrical bow, this appears to be the case.

The DreamWorks Animation sequel is being praised as equal to or better than the 2011 predecessor. You may remember that it’s originally a spin-off from the massive Shrek franchise. Joel Crawford (who last made The Croods: A New Age) directs as Antonio Banderas and Salma Hayek return to voice the title kitty and his love interest. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, John Mulaney, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph.

Early reviews have this at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and that’s beyond the 86% that the first Boots earned (we are still at under 10 write-ups so it could come down). The aforementioned Shrek from 2001 is actually the first movie to win the Academy’s animated prize. In 2004, Shrek 2 was nominated but lost to Disney’s The Incredibles. The third and fourth tales of the jolly green monster didn’t make the cut. However, Puss in Boots was among 2011’s quintet. Rango took the gold.

This is a strange year in the Animated Feature race. Of Disney’s trio of hopefuls, only Turning Red appears safe for inclusion. The frontrunner is Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio from Netflix. The steamer’s Wendell and Wild and My Father’s Dragon could also get in. We have A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and The Bad Guys (also from DreamWorks). I haven’t had Puss in Boots: The Last Wish in the top 10 of possibilities. After seeing the initial reaction, it definitely will make that jump. When I update my projections on Thursday, it could even enter the high five. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Black Widow Review

The Marvel movies have become as American as apple pie. Or “American Pie” since that Don McLean ditty is featured prominently in Black Widow, a stand-alone feature designed to fill some backstory of Scarlett Johansson’s OG Avenger. Is it necessary? That’s debatable. However, the unexpected COVID layoff of nearly two years between MCU titles and some solid performances makes this a welcome addition to the franchise.

I guess I should say SPOILER ALERT if you haven’t taken in the rest of the cinematic universe so there’s your warning. Avengers: Endgame marked the demise of Natasha Romanoff/Black Widow as she went out in self sacrificial fashion. Her previous sacrifices for a darker cause are explored here. The film opens in 1995 Ohio with Natasha and her little sister Yelena being raised by parents Alexei (David Harbour) and Melina (Rachel Weisz). It’s all a front, though, as mom and dad aren’t really their folks. They are Russian spies on a mission for General Dreykov (Ray Winstone) and once the Midwest job is completed, the fake family unit is broken apart.

Natasha, of course, grows up to be the fighter we have seen in numerous other blockbusters beginning with Iron Man 2 and so on. Yelena grows up to take the form of Florence Pugh and she gets her training as well through Dreykov along with numerous other orphaned girls turned assassins. As far as timeline purposes go, Black Widow happens between the actions of Captain America: Civil War and Avengers: Infinity War. That’s when The Avengers were experiencing their roughest patch with Tony Stark and Captain America at odds and the others being forced to choose sides.

Since Natasha is a wanted woman by the U.S. Government, she reunites with her long lost “sister” and “parents” in Budapest (remember to pronounce the SH sound in the word) in an effort to stop Dreykov’s mind control of his female army. Unlike other MCU pics, this truly is a stand-alone piece. None of the other Avengers are present and that gives time for new secondary characters to shine. Foremost among them is Yelena and the winning performance given by Pugh. She makes enough of an impression that I hope for her future involvement in other chapters. Harbour is good for a few comedic highlights as he reminisces about his time as Red Guardian (when he apparently had some battles with Captain America).

The MCU always comes down to bloodline dynamics and it is in abundant supply here. If Black Widow previously felt like a slightly underdeveloped character, there’s enough familiar familial dynamics to check off some boxes. Where Black Widow is weakest is not in the action sequences. They’re as first-rate as you’d expect. Cate Shortland makes her first contribution to the series in the director’s chair and she and the tech team certainly get a passing grade. The film’s liability is the villain Dreykov who doesn’t make much of an impression in the fairly short amount of screen time he’s given. This is not a unique flaw in the MCU. For every Loki or Thanos, there seems to be a handful of forgettable baddies.

We already said bye-bye to Johansson’s Black Widow once, but this callback to a time before her heroic departure proves the levee isn’t dry when it comes to her entertainment value. And it also shows she leaves behind previously unknown associates that could provide more highlights.

*** (out of four)

Black Widow Box Office Prediction

Hitting theaters two weeks after F9 sprinted to the best opening weekend for films released post COVID, Black Widow looks to make that record short-lived. Originally slated for May 2020 before its pandemic delays, the 24th saga in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is a stand-alone showcase for Scarlett Johansson’s Avengers character. Cate Shortland directs with a supporting cast including Florence Pugh, David Harbour, O-T Fagbenie, William Hurt, Ray Winstone, and Rachel Weisz.

Widow, sporting a budget of at least $200 million, marks the longest delay between MCU pics that we have seen in over a decade. This is the creme de la creme of franchises where 11 of the past 18 titles have made over $100 million (or much more) in their debuts.

As has been the case with all pictures in this uncertain era, there are challenges Widow faces that could prevent that. For starters, its studio made the choice to simultaneously make this available for Disney Plus streaming. $30 will allow you to view it from the comfort of your couch (a cheaper proposition if buying for the whole family). Widow also doesn’t have the benefit of falling between two gargantuan Avengers features. That certainly helped 2019’s Captain Marvel which soared to $153 million for its start.

While the MCU is generally review proof, the positive reaction from critics won’t hurt. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at 85%. And Johansson’s character (while not in the stratosphere of Iron Man or Captain America) is a familiar presence from The Avengers, its sequels, and more.

I can’t help but wonder if the Mouse Factory regrets making the Disney Plus decision. This will be a test to see how many fans will choose the home option. That said, I do believe Widow will top the $70 million that F9 reached. While $100 million may be out of range, a gross of $75-$85 million seems doable and that’s where I’m landing. My projection puts this just under what Doctor Strange (2016) and Thor: The Dark World (2013) achieved.

Black Widow opening weekend prediction: $83.3 million

Oscar Watch: Black Widow

In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, unless the film is named Black Panther, your best hope is to contend in Visual Effects at the Oscars and probably lose. This brings us to Black Widow, the 24th entry in the MCU that opens July 9th in theaters and on Disney Plus streaming. The stand-alone pic focused on Scarlett Johansson’s title character had its review embargo lifted today and results are mostly positive thus far. The Rotten Tomatoes score currently stands at 86%.

Johansson’s costars (Florence Pugh particularly) are getting the bulk of critical kudos. That said, no actor in an MCU flick has made the cut in those categories and it won’t start here. 10 of the previous 23 franchise blockbusters (Iron Man, Iron Man 2, The Avengers, Iron Man 3, Guardians of the Galaxy, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Doctor Strange, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame) have landed slots in Visual Effects. As far as victories go – they are 0 for 10. In fact, only Panther (which nabbed a Best Picture nod) has won anything. It went 3 for 7 on Oscar night 2019 by taking Original Score, Costume Design, and Production Design.

Just over half of Marvel’s creations have received zero recognition from the Academy. Black Widow should face an uphill battle in Visual Effects. Late year arrivals like Dune and Top Gun: Maverick are just two possibilities outside of this cinematic universe. Then there’s the matter of 3 more hopeful MCU titles: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and (perhaps especially) Eternals. Bottom line: there’s a better chance of Black Widow not showing up anywhere at next year’s ceremony. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Point Break Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years ago, eventual Oscar winning director Kathryn Bigelow made Point Break, an effective mix of action and surfing that starred Patrick Swayze and Keanu Reeves. It turned into quite a cult hit and Warner Bros. has teed up a Christmas Day remake that comes with a reported $120 million budget.

The pic stars Edgar Ramirez (pulling double duty over the holidays in Joy), Luke Bracey, and Ray Winstone. Break has already opened overseas to so-so results. The questions begs itself: are audiences clamoring for a Point Break remake? While the original deserves its solid reputation, is the remembrance of it fond enough so that action fans will see it? And there’s also the fact that genre fans might be taking in Star Wars in its second weekend for the first time. Or second or third.

Considering those factors, I’m even skeptical that this breaks double digits in its debut. To be fair, another recent action remake Red Dawn opened to $14 million and $21 million over the Thanksgiving 2012 holiday, which was more than I predicted by quite a bit. That aside, I’ll estimate that Point Break just squeaks by the double digit mark for a disappointing start.

Point Break opening weekend prediction: $11 million

For my Joy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/joy-box-office-prediction/

For my Daddy’s Home prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/daddys-home-box-office-prediction/

For my Concussion prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/15/concussion-box-office-prediction/

For my The Big Short prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/16/the-big-short-box-office-prediction/

Noah Movie Review

Darren Aronofsky’s Noah combines the work of a truly talented filmmaker with one of the more well-known tales in Biblical history. It’s an audacious undertaking by both the director and the studio who were willing to budget it at a reported $125 million. For fans of Aronofsky, it is impossible to imagine him going the safe route with this story and he doesn’t. From Pi to Requiem for a Dream to The Fountain to The Wrestler to Black Swan, the auteur has given us challenging and rewarding pictures consistently. Those same adjectives apply in this case, even if the film ultimately drowns under the weight of its aspirations and own flat-out weirdness.

Russell Crowe gives a sturdy performance as the title character, who receives a message from The Creator to take his wife and children on an ark along with duos of the Earth’s creatures. He believes that God has sent word to punish all other humans for their sins. Noah soon becomes convinced that all mankind, including himself and his family and even his unborn grandchildren, must perish too. This creates eventual dissention with his loved ones, especially his son Ham (Logan Lerman) and adopted daughter Ila (Emma Watson). Even his wife Naameh (Jennifer Connelly, once again playing spouse to a strong-willed Crowe character) comes to doubt him.

Further complicating matters is tubal-Cain (Ray Winstone), who leads his followers on a revolt to take the ark themselves. They certainly do not share Noah’s vision of the future and do all they can to disrupt it. Noah receives protection from The Watchers, who are a strange-looking monstrous group of stone creatures. More assistance is provided by Noah’s grandfather played by Anthony Hopkins in some serious old age makeup.

Noah the movie is primarily focused on the inner conflict that Noah the man feels with his God-given vision. Yet along with it comes some battle scenes that could have fit with a Lord of the Rings pic and lots of digital animals that look – well, extremely digital. The effect on the viewer is a bit discombobulating. Biblical purists looking for a straightforward retelling from the Book of Genesis best look elsewhere – like the source material. Moviegoers wishing for something like a Tolkien-esque experience only get it in glimpses.

The picture is undoubtedly the work of a true artist whose very idea to make this is pretty bold. Not as bold, however, as what he’s pulled off before with more satisfactory and deeper results. Noah will surely hold your interest with its often bizarre mix of fight scenes, family drama, sometimes mediocre CGI, dream sequences, creation montages, and supreme British acting. For this gifted director, though, a massive budget and familiar story don’t equal anything close to his finest work.

**1/2 (out of four)

http://youtu.be/_OSaJE2rqxU

The Gunman Box Office Prediction

After winning two Oscars in the previous decade, Sean Penn tries to go all Liam Neeson mode in The Gunman, out Friday. The action thriller actually comes from the maker of the original Taken, Pierre Morel. Idris Elba, Javier Bardem, and Ray Winstone costar.

If something like Neeson’s own Run All Night can’t make much dough, it’s difficult to see this making an impact. Reviews have been highly negative so far and there’s nothing in its advertisements that set it apart from typical genre fare. It could perhaps benefit from catering to the male audience with the female audience flocking to Insurgent and Cinderella, but I doubt it.

I’ll predict The Gunman doesn’t reach double digits and fades away to the VOD screen soon enough.

The Gunman opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

For my Insurgent prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/insurgent-box-office-prediction/

For my Do You Believe? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/do-you-believe-box-office-prediction/