Tag: Ralph Breaks the Internet

2018 Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.

It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.

One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.

Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.

Let’s get to it!

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Wild Card – The Mule

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

Mary Poppins Returns

Vice

Alternate – Eighth Grade

Wild Card – Private Life

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man

Best Actor (Drama)

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress (Drama)

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Christian Bale, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

Nick Robinson, Love, Simon

Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite

Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alternate – Smallfoot

Wild Card – The Grinch

Best Foreign Language Film

Cold War

Girl

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Alternate – Capernaum

Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch

Best Screenplay

A Star Is Born

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

Vice

Alternate – Green Book

Wild Card – First Reformed

Best Original Score

BlacKkKlansman

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Alternate – Widows

Wild Card – Suspiria

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” from Black Panther

“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born

Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

6 Nominations

The Favourite

5 Nominations

A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice

3 Nominations

Green Book

2 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians

1 Nomination

Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots

I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 29th Edition

We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 7)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 5)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. First Man (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

14. Widows (PR: 11)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The Mule

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Reformed (PR: 6)

4. Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 5)

5. Burning (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)

7. Border (PR: 10)

8. Girl (PR: 4)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)

10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I Am Not a Witch

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)

7. Early Man (PR: 6)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Free Solo (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dark Money (PR: 8)

9. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)

10. Science Fair (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Quincy

Jane Fonda in Five Acts

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 8)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. Vice (PR: 5)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 5)

3. The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 6)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Colette (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

8. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annihilation (PR: 6)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

10. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. Roma (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)

7. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

9. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

10. “Gravity” from Free Solo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born

”A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

That equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite, First Man

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Burning, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, On the Basis of Sex

Oscar Watch: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Over the past 16 years, we’ve witnessed numerous iterations of the famed web slinging superhero Spider-Man. From Tobey Maguire to Andrew Garfield to Tom Holland and two franchise reboots, the character has been omnipresent in our multiplexes. So the idea of an animated version might have seemed like overkill when Sony announced Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, which creates a world in which multiple people can be the iconic character.

Critical reaction out today suggests otherwise. Spider–Verse stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 30 reviews in. Some write-ups claim it’s the best Spidey feature since 2004’s Spider–Man 2. Select others claim it’s the best of the whole bunch (this will be seventh stand-alone entry).

Will Oscar notice? It seems highly likely. That would mean a nod in Best Animated Feature. It marks a fourth near “sure thing “ in that race, including current box office champ Ralph Breaks the Internet and Isle of Dogs. The raves bestowed upon this suggests it could even stand a better chance at winning than those pictures. Yet it could be a tall order to overcome the Pixar juggernaut involving other superheroes – Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: Spider–Verse is into the Animated Feature mix in a major way. It’s out stateside on December 14. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Box Office Predictions: November 30-December 2

As is traditionally the case, the post Thanksgiving weekend should be a quiet one for new releases as audiences should continue to feast on leftovers. The only newcomer is horror pic The Possession of Hannah Grace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/22/the-possession-of-hannah-grace-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting much from Possession with my meager $3.2 million forecast. That would leave it outside the top 5 and most likely in the bottom rungs of the top 10. That means the top half of the top 10 is likely to stay the same – with some potential flip flopping occurring.

Ralph Breaks the Internet may lose close to half its audience in its sophomore outing and that would easily place it first once again with a gross in the high 20s. That drop would put it in line with the post Thanksgiving sophomore frames of Frozen, Moana, and Coco – all Disney titles that debuted over the long holiday.

The battle for #2 could be a little more interesting. In 2015, Creed dipped 49% in its second weekend (which also was a post holiday one) and I think this will roughly follow suit. If that occurs, I expect The Grinch will continue its smallish declines as we move closer to Christmas. That could allow the surly green guy to move into the runner-up position.

In 2016, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them plummeted a steep 59% in its third weekend and sequel The Crimes of Grindelwald could be facing the same fate. That said, remaining in fourth place shouldn’t be a problem.

For the #5 slot, I believe Instant Family could manage to jump Bohemian Rhapsody by a razor-thin margin as it looks to have a minor dip compared to other pics.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend upon us:

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

2. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $20 million

3. Creed II

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindewald

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

5. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

6. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (November 23-25)

Ralph Breaks the Internet, as expected, ruled the Turkey Day frame with $56.2 million for its Friday to Sunday haul and $84.7 million from Wednesday to Sunday. The Disney sequel managed to surpass my respective estimates of $54.4 million and $79.8 million. As mentioned, this should have no trouble being #1 at the box office for probably the next two weekends.

Creed II also opened with highly impressive results in second with the largest live-action Thanksgiving debut of all time. The boxing sequel made $35.5 million over the traditional weekend and $56 million for the five-day gross. This was above my respective projections of $31.4 million and $45.3 million. Opening larger than its predecessor, it appears poised to top the $109 million overall gross of 2015’s Creed.

The Grinch was third with $30.3 million (I was right there at $30.1 million) to brings its three-week total to an opposite of grumpy $180 million.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald went from first to fourth with $29.3 million (I went higher with $34.8 million). It’s taken in $116 million thus far and should come in well under the $234 million made by its predecessor.

Bohemian Rhapsody was fifth with $14 million (I said $14.1 million) for $152 million overall.

Instant Family held up nicely after a so-so debut in sixth with $12.3 million (I said $12.7 million). The Mark Wahlberg/Rose Byrne dramedy eased just 15% to bring its two-week tally to $35 million. I expect this to continue to play well into the holiday season.

It was bad news for Lionsgate as the latest Robin Hood reboot (with a reported $100 million price tag) was DOA in seventh with $9.1 million for the three-day and $14,2 million for the five-day. That’s on the mark with my $9.7 million and $14.1 million take on it. Expect this to fade fast.

Widows was 8th in its sophomore frame with $8.2 million, shy of my $9.5 million estimate for $25 million total.

Green Book expanded nationwide with middling results in ninth place with $5.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $7.4 million for the five-day. It did get over my predictions of $4.5 million and $7.4 million. Its studio will cross their fingers that the A+ Cinemascore grade allows it to have sturdy legs.

A Star Is Born was 10th with $3 million (I went with $4 million) and it’s nearing double century territory with $191 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 22nd Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!

  • Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
  • Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (Green Book). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
  • For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate).
  • Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
  • In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
  • For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Vice (PR: 9)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: 3)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Widows (PR: 10)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Mule (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Boy Erased

Crazy Rich Asians

A Quiet Place

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)

9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Private Life (PR: 7)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

7. Burning (PR: 6)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 8)

9. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Guilty

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse (PR: 5)

5. Mirai (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 8)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

3. Free Solo (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)

7. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

8. Dark Money (PR: 7)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 1)

4. The Favourite (PR: 8)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Widows (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 10)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Colette (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 8)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

3. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Favourite (PR: 2)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 7)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Black Panther (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annihilation (PR: 5)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 9)

9. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. First Man

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 10)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 7)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “Always Remeber Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

10. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

”Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that translates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, First Reformed, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Widows, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One

Happy Thanksgiving y’all!

Box Office Predictions: November 23-25

Blogger’s Note (11/20): On the eve of their debuts, I have respectively increased and decreased projections for Creed II and Green Book

Well it’s Turkey Day weekend at the box office and that always makes for a crazy frame to predict the numbers we shall see over the long holiday! We have four newcomers debuting and/or expanding to the masses: Disney animated sequel Ralph Breaks the Internet, follow-up to the 2015 punchy blockbuster Creed II, the latest Robin Hood tale with Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx, and Oscar hopeful Green Book. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/13/ralph-breaks-the-internet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/creed-ii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/17/green-book-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that the Mouse Factory should rule the charts with return of Ralph. It’s a familiar position for the studio as they’ve opened Frozen and numerous Pixar pics over Thanksgiving.

Creed II certainly has breakout potential. I have it performing very similar, however, to its predecessor three years ago on the same weekend. That estimate would put it in fourth behind family offerings Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in weekend #2 and The Grinch in weekend #3.

This particular holiday often sees holdover experience extremely slim declines as moviegoers take the weekend to sample leftovers. Both Instant Family and Widows debuted under expectations (more on that below), but I have them both holding quite sturdily.

I’m not looking for the newest Robin Hood to score many points with audiences and have it slated for a lowly seventh place start.

Green Book expands to around 1000 screens and it’s quite a question mark. It’s getting serious awards chatter, but its limited release numbers this past weekend were not too impressive. I still think it can reach double digits for the five-day roll out and that leaves it in ninth place considering all the competition.

With every newbie debuting on Wednesday and all the returnees attempting to be stay afloat, my typical top 5 forecast becomes a top 10 this time around! Here they are:

1. Ralph Breaks the Internet

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

3. Creed II

Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $45.3 million

4. The Grinch

Predicted Gross: $30.1 million

5. Bohemian Rhapsody 

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

6. Instant Family

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

7. Robin Hood

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $14.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

8. Widows

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

9. Green Book

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

10. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $4 million

Box Office Results (November 16-18)

All new releases seemed to come in a bit under the forecasts and that started with Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. As anticipated, it easily topped the charts at $62.1 million, but that’s about $12 million less than its predecessor from two years ago and under my $70.1 million take.

The Grinch fell to second with $38.5 million in its sophomore frame. I was right there at $38.6 million. It’s made $126 million so far as it should continue to play well into the season.

Bohemian Rhapsody was third with $16 million (I went higher at $19.5 million). It’s three-week tally is $128 million.

Instant Family, despite good reviews and the star power of Mark Wahlberg, was fourth with a middling $14.5 million. I was considerably higher at $19.4 million. The silver lining could be a very solid hold coming up.

And despite great reviews, heist thriller Widows disappointed in fifth with $12.3 million (I said $15.8 million). Like Family, it hopes to level out over the holiday.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 15th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are updated! Here’s some developments from last week to this one:

  • On the Basis of Sex screened at the AFI Fest and I believe its Oscar hopes in all categories took a significant dip. We’ll see if it can rebound, but it’s dropped out of contention in Picture, Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer), and Original Screenplay with Felicity Jones falling to #10 in Actress.
  • Speaking of AFI Fest, Mary Queen of Scots debuts this evening at the fest. By this time next week, I’ll have a much better idea as to its prospects.
  • Both Supporting categories experienced a change. I’ve moved Sam Rockwell (Vice) back in the top 5 with Adam Driver out. I’ve also put Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) in the predicted nominees with Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) out.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Widows (PR: 10)

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Boy Erased (PR: 15)

13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

14. The Mule (PR: 13)

15. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

7. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igH_nJqb0hc

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

3. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

9. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7ckCekdGr8

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 9)

10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. Black Panther (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 3)

2. Green Book (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 7)

7. Private Life (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 7)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

On the Basis of Sex

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

9. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Dogman

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Mirai (PR: 4)

5. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 6)

8. Early Man (PR: 5)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Grinch

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 3)

2. Free Solo (PR: 1)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Quincy (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Vice (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Favourite (PR: 5)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Cold War (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YES0lLXIIz4

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

8. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

A Star Is Born

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZZ81-vW-Kc

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 2)

2. The Favourite (PR: 1)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

5. Vice (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 6)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

4. Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Avengers: Infinity War 

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. Annihilation (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 9)

9. Roma (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 9)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 5)

8. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

9. “Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. “Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud (PR: 8)

And that provides the following breakdown of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

9 Nominations

First Man, The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Annihilation, At Eternity’s Gate, Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Boy Erased, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Ready Player One, Widows, The Wife, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Free Solo, Three Identical Strangers, Minding the Gap.

And that does it for now! Until next week…

Oscar Watch: Ralph Breaks the Internet

Ralph Breaks the Internet is expected to easily hit the #1 spot at the box office over the Thanksgiving holiday. The film is Disney’s highly anticipated sequel to 2012’s Wreck-It-Ralph and reviews are out today.

The verdict? Much like its predecessor, critical notice is strong as it currently stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some early notices say it doesn’t quite match the original, but it’s all pretty much a positive vibe.

As to where that puts Internet in the Oscar race for Best Animated Feature, I’d say it’s almost certainly in. Wreck-It-Ralph also nabbed a nomination in that category, but lost to Disney/Pixar’s Brave. That would appear to be what will happen again as Ralph should get a nod and lose to the heroes of Pixar’s Incredibles 2.

Bottom line: Ralph officially broke into awards chatter today, but studio competition should keep it from achieving gold. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

Creed II Box Office Prediction

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

Robin Hood Box Office Prediction

Ralph Breaks the Internet Box Office Prediction

Disney is no stranger to debuting high-profile titles over the long Turkey Day weekend and they’re back at it again with Ralph Breaks the Internet. It’s the sequel to 2012’s Wreck–It–Ralph and brings back the vocal stylings of John C. Reilly, Sarah Silverman, Jack McBrayer, Jane Lynch, and Ed O’Neill. New actors behind the mic include Gal Gadot, Taraji P. Henson, and Alfred Molina. Rich Moore and Phil Johnston direct.

While we’re not in Incredibles 2 territory as far as expectations, Ralph is forecasted to easily break into the top spot for the Thanksgiving holiday. The original made $49 million for its start six years ago and ended up with $189 million.

Animated sequels can and have exceeded debut earnings of their predecessors. There’s been several years for kids to watch the original repeatedly and Internet could also appeal to younger adults. As mentioned, the Mouse Factory likes this frame for their drawn efforts. On the high-end, there’s Frozen, which made $93 million over the full Wednesday to Sunday frame ($67 million traditional weekend). On the low-end is The Good Dinosaur with a $55 million five-day ($39 million three-day). Two years ago, Moana took in $82 million ($56 million Friday to Sunday). Last year it was Coco with $72 million ($50 million three-day).

So where does this fit in? I like it falling in between Disney’s output from the last two years. That means I’m estimating it slightly outshines Wreck–It for the traditional weekend with upper 70s for the whole holiday.

Ralph Breaks the Internet opening weekend prediction: $54.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $79.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Creed II prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/creed-ii-box-office-prediction/

For my Robin Hood prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/14/robin-hood-box-office-prediction/

For my Green Book prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/11/17/green-book-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Grinch

Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative Despicable Me/Minions franchise.

Could that mean The Grinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming Ralph Breaks the Internet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like Early Man and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.

Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only Despicable Me 2 got one, with better reviewed titles like The Secret Life of Pets and other Despicable efforts left out.

Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…