Taking a break from their high profile franchises (albeit briefly), Zendaya and Robert Pattinson headline the relationship tale The Drama on April 3rd. Written and directed by Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) and described as both a dark comedy and romantic thriller, it will try and find a large female audience over the Easter holiday. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoë Winters provide support.
The film’s leads will be seen together in the summer via The Odyssey and this December in Dune: Part Three. Those will certainly outgross this one. However, The Drama has breakout potential due to its star power and counter programming ability while The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary dominate the charts.
A worst case scenario might be double digits or low teens and failing to match the $15 million that Zendaya’s Challengers opened with two years ago. A dream scenario would be anything beyond $20 million. I think that’s achievable, but I’ll project mid to higher teens.
The Drama opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
For my The Super Mario Galaxy Movie prediction, click here:
Project Hail Mary touched down with fantastic results as it looks to easily repeat in 1st place as March closes out. Horror comedy They Will Kill You is the sole wide release newcomer and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
A best case scenario for They Will Kill You might be a second place finish in the low double digits or low teens. I’m going lower in the mid single digits for a third place start.
Space set Hail Mary opened at the top end of its expected range for 2026’s highest premiere (more on that below). It scored the second largest debut for a non-franchise, non-sequel behind Oppenheimer and Ryan Gosling’s second best unveiling after Barbie. I suspect the sophomore dip will be in the mid 40s (similar to Oppenheimer).
Hoppers should remain in the runner-up position as it heads into the Easter frame. The 4-5 spots should be close between Reminders of Him and Ready or Not 2: Here I Come after its meh debut.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $44.8 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. They Will Kill You
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (March 20-22)
Project Hail Mary reached for the stars and achieved a remarkable launch with $80.5 million, zooming beyond my $69 million prediction. With solid reviews and awards buzz, it turned out to be the event film that Amazon MGM was hoping for. The future looks bright as it faces no obstacles topping the charts again.
Hoppers, after two weeks in 1st, was second with $17.8 million. That’s on target with my $18.4 million call as Disney/Pixar’s latest hit $120 million after three weeks.
Indian action sequel Dhurandhar: The Revenge managed bragging rights by outgrossing the Ready or Not follow-up. With the second best per theater average, it made $10 million compared to my $7.8 million forecast with $14 million in the bank since its Wednesday bow.
Ready or Not 2: Here I Come stumbled in fourth with $9 million, under my $11.2 million take. The horror sequel showed that most genre fans fell on the not ready side.
Reminders of Him rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $9.2 million) for a two-week tally of $33 million.
Scream 7 was sixth with $4.3 million. I went with $5.3 million as the latest franchise entry’s four-week earnings rose to $114 million.
Blogger’s Update (03/19): Upping my Project Hail Mary prediction from $59 million to $69 million and adding Dhurandharthe Revenge to the #5 spot at $7.8 million.
Amazon MGM space adventure Project Hail Mary looks to dominate the box office this weekend while Searchlight searches for horror fans to boost Ready or Not 2: Here I Come. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With high star reviews, Mary appears poised for an impressive showing out of the gate (it will need it with the reported $200M+ budget). My prediction has it reaching nearly $60 million as it hopes for a long run in the coming weeks.
Barring a significant overperformance, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come should place third in low double digits behind the third frame of current champ Hoppers.
The remainder of the top five should go to holdovers Reminders of Him in its sophomore frame (more on its solid performance below) and Scream 7.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $69 million
2. Hoppers
Predicted Gross: $18.4 million
3. Ready or Not 2: Here I Come
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. Reminders of Him
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dhurandhar The Revenge
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
6. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
As anticipated, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers stayed in 1st place while newcomers managed to outdo my projections. Hoppers made off with $28.6 million, just ahead of my $27.2 million prediction. The two-week earnings jumped to $86 million.
Reminders of Him, the romantic drama based on the Colleen Hoover novel, came in at the high end of expectations with $17.9 million in second. That’s well beyond my $10.4 million call. Look for it to drop in the high 40s in its second week.
Low-budget Canadian horror pic Undertone was third with $9.3 million. Like Reminders, it started out at the top of its expected range and past my meager $4.9 million take. I do think it will drop out of the top 5 this weekend with a percentage dip in the high 50s or more.
Scream 7 was fourth with $8.5 million, ahead of my $6.9 million forecast for a three-week tally of $106 million. It will match the $108 million take of its 2023 predecessor this week.
Goat rounded out the top five with $4.6 million (I said $4.3 million) as the animated sports tale is nearly at nine digits with $90 million.
Finally, The Bride! plummeted 70% in weekend #2 with just $2 million. I was more generous at $2.6 million. The two-week total for the WB flop is $11 million.
Project Hail Mary looks to throw down impressive grosses for Amazon MGM when it debuts March 20th. Drew Goddard adapts Andy Weir’s 2021 novel with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing. The sci-fi adventures stars Ryan Gosling with a supporting cast including Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.
Critics have complimented the production on its Spielberg vibes with Rotten Tomatoes at 95% and 80 on Metacritic. With a reported budget north of $200 million, the studio is hoping for a high launch. Encouraging early word-of-mouth should assist.
One scenario is that it plays similar to 2015’s The Martian which is also based on a Weir book. That space tale with Matt Damon opened to $54 million. A best case might be closer to $80 million, but I’ll hedge and say high 60s is likelier.
Project Hail Mary opening weekend prediction: $69 million
For my Ready or Not 2: Here I Come prediction, click here:
Project Hail Mary touches down in theaters March 20th looking to score impressive box office numbers. The sci-fi adventure comes from filmmakers Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, best known for their involvement in the Lego, 21/22 Jump Street, and Spider-Verse franchises. Ryan Gosling headlines with Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub providing support.
Early reviews are encouraging with many critics calling this a big-hearted popcorn feast reminiscent of Spielberg. Rotten Tomatoes is fresh at 96% with Metacritic at 80. If Mary pops with audiences and becomes a financial hit, that could help with awards attention. Down the line nods including Daniel Pemberton’s score, Editing, Production Design, and especially Sound and Visual Effects are all possibilities.
How it fares in the major races is more of an open question. Under a best case scenario, Director, Adapted Screenplay (by Drew Goddard from the Andy Weir novel) could happen. This logic also applies to Best Picture like other space tales Gravity and The Martian (also based on a Weir story). It could also miss the big dance like other genre titles Interstellar and Gosling’s First Man. The leading man could make a play for a fourth acting mention.
The bottom line is that this Project could be one that Oscar voters notice. To what level remains to be seen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
