While scary movies ruled the charts in the remarkable weekend that just happened, the franchise that spoofs them returns to theaters for the first time in 13 years and should place #1. In addition to Scary Movie, He-Man is back in multiplexes after nearly 40 years offscreen with Masters of the Universe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Scary Movie looks to be arriving at an opportune time as horror flicks are dominating and posting previously unthought of grosses via Backrooms and Obsession. The sixth entry in the series began in 2000, it could absolutely break the franchise opening record held by Scary Movie 3 at $48 million. I’ve got it just under in what should be an uncomplicated path to the top slot.
The race for #2 is more open. Adapting the toy line and Saturday morning cartoon that began over 40 years ago (and led to a panned Dolph Lundgren live-action version in 1987), Masters needs family audiences to turn out as teens and adults will be preoccupied with Scary Movie and scary movies. My projection of just under $30 million would be considered a letdown. If Masters does my estimated figure, it opens the door for Backrooms to be second if it drops in the 60% range. That’s what I’m saying will happen in a photo finish.
Then there’s Obsession which has built its earnings from the first week to the second to the third. As mentioned before, that’s practically unheard of for any wide release movie (let alone a horror one). I have it finally easing in the mid teens in week #4, but we’re in uncharted territory here so who knows?
After a troubling second outing, The Mandalorian and Grogu should round out the top five. Finally, Power Ballad with Paul Rudd and Nick Jonas expands nationwide. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll put its wide release at $4.2 million and that’s well outside the top five.
Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:
1. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $47.5 million
2. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. Masters of the Universe
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
5. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $11 million
Box Office Results (May 29-31)
Before Backrooms came out, A24’s largest opening weekend belonged to Civil War at $25 million. I knew Backrooms would blast past that record and predicted that it would more than double that figure at $57 million. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Based on the hit found footage web series, it more than tripled A24’s previous best at $81.4 million. To say the least, young viewers turned out in droves and a new franchise is undoubtedly born.
Obsession stayed in second and increased its crowd by 14% at $27.3 million, falling just below my $29.5 million prediction. The phenomenon now has $105 million in the bank after three weeks.
A week after experiencing the worst Star Wars start in the Disney era, The Mandalorian and Grogu had the heftiest percentage drop of them all. Falling 70%, it made $24.4 million compared to my $25.6 million call. The less than anticipated total is $136 million.
Michael was fourth with $11.8 million (I said $13 million) as the musical biopic has amassed $340 million after six weeks.
Nate Bargatze is a bestselling stand-up, but it didn’t translate to box office bucks in his first starring vehicle The Breadwinner. It sputtered in fifth with only $7.3 million. I was more generous at $12.1 million.
Finally, Pressure opened in seventh with $5.8 million. The well-reviewed World War II drama got beyond my $4.9 million estimate with the fifth highest per theater average in the top 10.
Recounting the meteorological challenges leading up to the D-Day invasion, Pressure arrives in multiplexes this weekend from director Anthony Maras. Andrew Scott stars as Scottish Captain James Stagg with Brendan Fraser portraying General Dwight D. Eisenhower. Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis also provide support.
The film’s footprint is fairly small for a summer feature with a reported theater count of around 1500. Plenty of reviews say it’s worth the watch with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more subdued 68 on Metacritic. This is the type of project that might normally hit the festival circuit or be a fall release. The fact that it’s neither is a signal that StudioCanal is unlikely to push this in an awards campaign. Despite some nice notices for Scott (and others saying Fraser is miscast), don’t forecast it for the Academy’s radar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/28): Some revisions asweekday numbers for Obsession now have me thinking it will gain from its sophomore frame and place second with Mandalorian now dipping to third. Additionally, my projection for Backrooms continues to rise and I’m now putting it at $57 million, up from $54 million.
Horror flick Backrooms looks to open at the front of the charts while Nate Bargatze’s comedy The Breadwinner and World War II drama Pressure with Andrew Scott and Brendan Fraser seek impressive earnings. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Based on a popular YouTube web series, Backrooms from Kane Parsons has a wide range of possibility. A worst case scenario could put it in second place behind the second frame of The Mandalorian and Grogu. There’s also the potential for an overperformance topping approaching $60 million. My mid 50s projection puts it in first with ease.
That’s because The Mandalorian got off to a so-so start (more on that below) and I suspect it’s headed for a precipitous fall in the high 60s.
Obsession, after a remarkable sophomore weekend hold, may only slide slightly for a third place showing. That could leave The Breadwinner well behind in fourth in the low teens though Bargatze’s fanbase may turn out enough for a better than anticipated premiere. Comedies are tricky. It might also struggle to make $10 million.
As for Pressure, with a reported theater count of around 1800, my $4.9 million forecast would put it outside of the top five.
Here’s how I have that high five shaking out:
1. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $57 million
2. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. The Mandalorian and Grogu
Predicted Gross: $25.6 million
4. Michael
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. The Breadwinner
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
Box Office Results (May 22-25)
The Mandalorian and Grogu never appeared to have the excitement that greets Star Wars series entries and the numbers proved that over Memorial Day weekend. The continuation of the Disney+ show landed with the lowest opening of any franchise pic since the Mouse House took over distribution beginning in 2015 with Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Opening slightly under 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story, the Friday to Sunday three-day take was $81.6 million, just over my $80.3 million prediction. When counting Monday, it grew to $98 million and that managed to top my $94.7 million take. While those grosses would be pleasing for most summer titles, that’s simply not the case here.
Obsession was arguably a bigger story this weekend as it grew 39% over its first frame. This is pretty much unheard of for any picture and especially in the horror genre. The Friday to Sunday earnings of $23.9 million and $31.9 million over the four-day easily surpassed my respective projections of $17.5 million and $22.9 million and the two-week total rose to $62 million.
Michael went from to 1st to 3rd with $20.6 million (three-day) and $27.1 million (four-day), ahead of my $18.8 million and $23.9 million guesstimates. The music biopic has now amassed $321 million in five weeks.
The Devil Wears Prada 2 was fourth with $12.7 million over the traditional weekend and $16.2 million with Monday added. The comedy sequel took in more than my $9.7 million and $12.6 million estimates and it has $199 million in the bank after four weeks,.
The Sheep Detectives held impressively in fifth with $9.2 million from Friday to Sunday (I said $7 million) and $12.3 million counting Monday (I went with $8.9 million). The three-week gross is $46 million for the summer sleeper.
Scary movie Passenger managed to outdo my predictions with $8.7 million (Fri-Sun) and $10.3 million (Fri-Mon). While I went lower respectively with $6.3 million and $7.3 million, the 6th place newcomer was overshadowed by Obsession. Unlike that movie, a hefty sophomore drop is probably coming.
Mortal Kombat II was seventh with $6 million over the three-day. My guess? $6 million! Its $7.6 million four-day slightly edged my $7.2 million call and the three-week total is $74 million.
Finally, absurdist comedy I Love Boosters from Boots Riley kicked off in 8th with $3.7 million from Friday to Sunday. My guess? $3.7 million! Like Kombat, the $4.7 million four-day barely exceeded my $4.5 million prediction.
StudioCanal’s Pressure hopes to serve as counterprogramming for adult filmgoers when it lands in theaters May 29th. Focused on the lead-up to D-Day, the World War II drama stars Andrew Scott as Captain James Stagg and Brendan Fraser as then General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The supporting cast includes Kerry Condon, Chris Messina, and Damian Lewis.
I’m a little surprised the distributor didn’t opt to open this over the Memorial Day weekend. Perhaps they thought competition was too much. It is reported that the screen count is approximately 1800 next weekend and that’s low for a summer release.
Last year’s Nuremberg debuted on around 1800 and made just shy of $4 million out of the gate. That might be Pressure‘s initial frame is pointed and I’ll give it a bit over.
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:
I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere
Other Possibilities:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.
The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.
Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.
So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.
From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.
George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.
Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.
Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.
Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.
Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.
Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.
Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.
Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.
So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Colman Domingo, Michael
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.
The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.
Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.
As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:
Joe Alwyn, Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Brendan Fraser, Pressure
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.
Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.
So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.
One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.
Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.
The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.
Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.
Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.
So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?
Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:
2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)
2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman
2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)
2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog
2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin
I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.
In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.
Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.
If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.
A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.
The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.
This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.
There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.
Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.
Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)
14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)
24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026
Is This Thing On?
Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)
11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
In my second update for ranked Oscar predictions covering Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies, confidence is growing that the force is strong with Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. It moves up two spots to third in Best Picture, Coogler rises a slot to second in Director, and Delroy Lindo is now in my Supporting Actor quintet. Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld, and Miles Caton all rise or materialize in Other Possibilities in their respective races.
My Best Picture ten remains intact and same goes for Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress. In Best Actor, I’m putting in Jesse Plemons for Bugonia with Daniel Day-Lewis (Anemone) on the outside looking in. Mr. Lindo from Sinners replaces Colman Domingo for Michael. Domingo’s drop is due to persistent rumors that his film (a biopic of the King of Pop) will move to 2026.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update up in a couple weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. After the Hunt (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Die, My Love (PR: 19) (+3)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (E)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Ann Lee (PR: 24) (+5)
20. Michael (PR: 18) (-2)
21. F1 (PR: 22) (+1)
22 Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (-8)
24. Alpha (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Is This Thing On? (PR: 23) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PRP 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+3)
13. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Foster, Vie privée
Olivia Colman, The Roses
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 13) (E)
14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Andrew Scott, Pressure (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+4)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Greta Lee, Late Fame (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Nia Long, Michael
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I correctly picked two of the eventual nominees with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) was listed in Other Possibilities. At that early juncture, the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and his probable runner-up Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) weren’t on the radar.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. For example, one year ago, Chalamet’s work as Bob Dylan was not expected to come out in 2024.
This premiere post projects a second nom in a row for Mr. Chalamet as well as return engagements for past winners George Clooney (a Supporting victory 20 years ago for Syriana) and Matthew McConaughey (lead for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club). Unlike most prognosticators, I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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