Diane Keaton headlines the comedy Mack & Rita as the Gravitas Venture title hopes to bring in a female crowd in these late summer box office dog days. Out August 12th, costar Elizabeth Lail is magically transformed into her older self who is played by the legendary Oscar winner. Katie Aselton, who appeared in Keaton’s 2018 hit Book Club, directs and the supporting cast includes Taylour Paige, Simon Rex, Loretta Devine, and Wendie Malick.
The studio would love a Book Club size gross. It delivered just shy of $70 million and a sequel is coming in May 2023. That appears highly unlikely as Rita seems to be flying well under the radar. I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my projection. I suspect this will be lucky to earn what Keaton’s 2019 dud Poms accomplished which was $5.4 million out of the gate. This may earn about half of that figure.
Mack & Rita opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
For my Bodies Bodies Bodies prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million
The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter3 – Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel ADog’sJourney and YA romance TheSunIsAlsoaStar out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.
A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with PokemonDetectivePikachu in third. I have ADog’sJourney tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor ADog’sPurpose).
My $5.5 million forecast for TheSunIsAlsoaStar likely leaves it in sixth with TheHustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $45.8 million
2. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
Predicted Gross: $25.2 million
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.
PokemonDetectivePikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.
TheHustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.
Fourth place belonged to TheIntruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.
LongShot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.
The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.
Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.
Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my Pikachu estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million and now giving Endgame a third weekend atop the charts
I’m predicting a photo finish as Avengers: Endgame gets legitimate competition in the form of PokemonDetectivePikachu featuring the vocal stylings of Ryan Reynolds this weekend. We also have a pair of comedies marketed to the female crowd: Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson in the DirtyRottenScoundrels remake TheHustle and Diane Keaton cheerleading flick Poms. In more limited release, there’s the biopic Tolkien with Nicholas Hoult. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:
About that photo finish… estimates for Pokemon are all over the map and they have been dropping a bit in recent days. I’ve landed with it having a debut in the mid 70s range. That puts it where I expect Endgame to be. If the record breaking superhero epic manages to top $68 million this weekend, it will achieve the second best third weekend of all time behind StarWars: TheForceAwakens. That would match what it did this past weekend (more on that below).
I’m giving Pikachu an ever so slight edge to nab the #1 spot. We shall see if that changes as the week goes on.
As for the fresh comedies, TheHustle and Poms should get the three and four spots, respectively. I’ve downgraded both of my forecasts today, especially after seeing the disappointing gross of LongShot.
Tolkien is only hitting a smallish 1300 screens and my $3.1 million projection leaves it outside the top five. Speaking of the five position, that could be interesting as TheIntruder, LongShot, and UglyDolls could all get it depending on their sophomore dips. I’ll give LongShot a minor edge.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $71.2 million
Predicted Gross: $64.8 million
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Avengers: Endgame finally found a record it couldn’t smash this weekend, though I’m sure Disney isn’t too upset about that. In its second weekend, it grossed $147.3 million and that fell under my $153.6 million estimate. That’s also just under the $149 million earned by TheForceAwakens in its second weekend, so it had to settle for runner-up record status. With $621 million in the bank, Endgame is already the #9 domestic earner in history. Even more impressively, the film is already #2 worldwide as it surpassed Titanic and is behind only Avatar.
All new titles came in under expectations. As predicted, thriller TheIntruder performed the best in second with $10.8 million. While quite a bit under my $15.2 million estimate, it’s a solid performance considering it cost a scant $8 million to produce.
LongShot with Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron couldn’t connect with audiences despite solid reviews. Its third place showing was only $9.7 million compared to my $13.1 million projection.
The news was even worse for the animated UglyDolls. It bombed in fourth with $8.6 million. I went higher at $13.8 million.
CaptainMarvel rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I said $5.9 million). Total stands at $420 million.
STX Entertainment is hoping an older female audience will turn out next weekend to cheer on Poms. The comedy is headlined by Diane Keaton as a recent retirement community resident who starts a cheerleading squad. Costars include Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman, Celia Watson, Alisha Boe, and Bruce McGill. Zara Hayes directs.
The film is hopeful to become a counter programming option amidst lots of expensive summer blockbusters. However, competition for a female audience is there as TheHustle opens against it and LongShot will be in its second weekend. By skewing a bit older with its target audience, Poms is looking to tap into BookClub money.
That movie opened last May to $13.5 million on roughly the same number of screens that this is. It legged out nicely to $68 million. I don’t have Poms jumping that high and I’m forecasting high single digits to low double digits as it hopes for small drops in the weekends ahead.
Poms opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my PokemonDetectivePikachu prediction, click here: