Tag: Places in the Heart

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:

99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.

He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.

We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.

John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.

For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?

The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Robert Aramayo, I Swear

Tom Cruise, Digger

Matt Damon, The Odyssey

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Adam Driver, Paper Tiger

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Josh O’Connor, Jack of Spades

Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

Will Poulter, Saturn Return

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Sebastian Stan, Fjord

Hanns Zischler, Fatherland

Oscar Predictions – Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F

Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F is out on Netflix today with Eddie Murphy reprising his iconic role as the wisecracking policeman. It arrives 40 years after the original and 30 years behind the unfortunate Beverly Hills Cop III (even its lead has trashed that one). Judge Reinhold, Josh Ashton, Paul Reiser, and Bronson Pinchot return to the franchise with Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Taylour Paige, and Kevin Bacon joining the fourth entry. Mary Malloy directs.

This might seem like a pointless Oscar Predictions posts until you realize there’s awards history with the first two Cop‘s. Part 1 was up for Best Original Screenplay (losing to Places in the Heart). At the Golden Globes, the original competed for Best Musical/Comedy (falling short to Romancing the Stone) and Murphy up for Actor in that category with Dudley Moore (Micki & Maude) emerging victorious. Three years later, Bob Seger’s track “Shakedown” from the first sequel was up for Original Song at the Oscars and Globes. “(I’ve Had) The Time of My Life” from Dirty Dancing defeated it at both shows. Unsurprisingly, part III failed to generate any nods except the Razzies where John Landis was up for Worst Director (“losing” to Steven Seagal for On Deadly Ground). Wyatt Earp prevented it from taking Worst Remake or Sequel.

Now that we’ve dispensed with that fun trip down memory lane, Axel F is getting mixed reviews with 67% on RT. That’s behind part 1 (83%) but ahead of II (46%) and III (11%). I wouldn’t count on Lil Nas X’s musical contribution “Here We Go!” competing like Seger’s song did. Same goes for any other category. On the bright side, it probably won’t factor into the Razzie conversation either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…