KPop Demon Hunters hit Netflix a couple weeks back and the animated feature’s title is accurate. The musical fantasy finds an all-girl group moonlighting as crime fighters. Maggie Kang and Chris Applehans direct with a voice cast including Arden Cho, Ayn Hyo-seop, May Hong, Ji-young Yoo, Yunjin Kim, Daniel Dae Kim, Ken Jeong, and Lee Byung-hun.
Midway through 2025, we don’t have any slam dunks in the Animated Feature race. Pixar’s Elio is a box office disappointment with good but not great reviews. Potential heavy hitters like Zootopia 2 from the Mouse House and Little Amélie or The Character of Rain from GKIDS await.
However, Hunters has surprised with strong reviews and high viewing numbers on the streamer. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 97% with Metacritic at 77. That’s certainly solid enough for it to play in Animated Feature. It might come down to the campaign that Netflix mounts as their upcoming In Your Dreams will vie for the prize as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dinosaurs seek to rule the Independence Day weekend courtesy of the seventh feature in the 32-year-old franchise with Jurassic World Rebirth. It is the only wide release newcomer stomping into multiplexes over the holiday and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The Jurassic series has proven itself to be critic proof in recent years and that should come into play with the new installment starring Scarlett Johansson. An opening weekend in nine figures is unlikely since it premieres on Wednesday (the last three World‘s achieved $100M+ out of the gate but debuted on traditional Friday to Sunday frames). I’m projecting a three-day in the $80 million ballpark with $130M+ when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday.
After a sizzling start, F1 with Brad Pitt will drop to second. With an A Cinemascore grade and appeal to adult moviegoers, you can expect impressive holds in the weekends to come. This may only ease around 30% and don’t be shocked if it’s even a little less for a strong runner-up position.
Holdovers will populate 3-6 with How to Train Your Dragon firmly in third and the lackluster Elio in fourth. Numbers five and six could be close between sequels 28 Years Later and M3GHAN 2.0, which short-circuited over the weekend.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $133 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. F1
Predicted Gross: $39.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (June 27-29)
F1 or F1: The Movie, Joseph Kosinski’s follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick, revved up impressive results with $57 million, lapping my $46.2 million prediction. It also performed with top-notch earnings overseas. As mentioned, word-of-mouth should keep this in the zeitgeist over the weekends to come. A sequel is already in the planning stages.
How to Train Your Dragon, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $19.5 million. That’s in line with my $19.1 million forecast as the live-action remake has fired up $200 million in three weeks.
Elio, after a worst ever Pixar premiere, didn’t hold up well in third with $10.4 million. I was more generous at $13 million as its sophomore plunge was a steep 50% (especially for its studio). This is undoubtedly one of the summer’s most significant flops.
Same goes for M3GAN 2.0. The sequel eschewed horror for a campier sci-fi tone and audiences rejected it. The fourth place showing was a DOA $10.2 million compared to the original’s $30 million. There’s no spinning that result for Blumhouse.
Finally, zombie threequel 28 Years Later plummeted 67% in its second outing with $9.7 million compared to my $12.6 million take. The ten-day tally is $50 million.
Previously on the blog, I wrote a series on a particular piece of speculative Oscar history. From 2009 to the present, there has been anywhere from 8-10 Best Pictures nominees at the Academy Awards. The number has been set at 10 in recently years and fluctuated previously. Before 2009, it was a quintet of films competing for the prize. I penned numerous posts making predictions on which five pics would have made the cut if it had stayed at that smaller number. **Click on that Oscar History tab on the blog to access all of them! Also – I still need to write these posts for 2023 and 2024. They’re coming.**
Now my speculation turns to the reverse. What if the Academy had always honored 10 motion pictures? From 1944-2008, there was a set five vying for attention. For a completist view, there were five for the first two Oscars (1929 and 1930). We had eight in 1931. From 1932 to 1943, it was ten.
This series will project the other five movies that I believe would’ve gotten in. I’ve already covered 2005-08 and you can peruse my posts on them here:
We move to 2004. There’s an obvious five pictures that would’ve made the cut and that’s the group that were nominated. It begins with Clint Eastwood’s Million Dollar Baby. That boxing drama made a late surge 21 years back and took four trophies – Picture, Director, Actress (Hilary Swank), and Supporting Actor and was nominated for three more.
Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator scored a ceremony high 11 nods and won five – Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, and Film Editing. Finding Neverland from Marc Forster landed 7 nominations with a victory in Original Score. Taylor Hackford’s musical biopic Ray made Jamie Foxx a Best Actor victor and won Sound Editing in addition to nods in BP, Director, and two tech races. Alexander Payne’s Sideways was also up for Director, two acting races (though notably not Paul Giamatti in lead actor), and was the recipient of Adapted Screenplay.
That’s the quintet we know. Now we can speculate. And that begins with an unlikely contender in Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11. Moviegoers of a certain younger age may not recall. but the documentarian’s critical look at George W. Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War was a Palme d’Or winner at Cannes, a critical smash, and became the highest grossing documentary of all time in the summer of 2004. However, Moore chose not to submit Fahrenheit for consideration in Documentary Feature where it probably would’ve been a lock to win that prize.
Fahrenheit was, however, eligible for BP. And this is the rare place on the blog where I will speak of politics coming into play. Had President Bush lost reelection in 2004, Fahrenheit might’ve been seen as a contributing factor. And in Hollywood, that might’ve been enough to earn it a spot among the theoretical 10 nominees. That did not happen and I’m therefore not including it among the expanded contenders.
While Fahrenheit is a question mark, there are some features that I feel strongly would have made the longer list. Mike Leigh’s Vera Drake was up for Director, Actress (Imelda Staunton), and Original Screenplay. Michel Gondry’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind was the winner in Original Screenplay while Kate Winslet was up in Actress (though Jim Carrey was notably snubbed in Actor). Hotel Rwanda was also nominated in Original Screenplay along with performers Don Cheadle and Sophie Okenedo.
In previous posts covering2007-2008, Ratatouille and Wall-E made the expanded 10. For 2004, same goes for The Incredibles. The Pixar property was the Animated Feature and Sound Editing honoree and it had nominations in (you guessed it) Original Screenplay and Sound Mixing.
That leaves one spot and there’s lots of contenders. Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ was a box office smash that was up for Original Score, Cinematography, and Makeup. Yet I question whether the Academy would’ve gone for it even with five added possibilities.
Collateral from Michael Mann saw Jamie Foxx as a double nominee in Supporting Actor and a Film Editing nod. Closer had supporting nominations for Clive Owen and Natalie Portman. If it had managed a Screenplay nomination, I might’ve included it. Various tech nominations were bestowed upon Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, The Phantom of the Opera, Spider-Man 2, and A Very Long Engagement. If this were a do-over list, Azkaban probably would get in considering many believe it’s the best of the franchise. I don’t believe you’d see it at the time. Same goes for the second Spidey adventure.
For the tenth spot (and it’s admittedly a tricky one), I’m settling on The Motorcycle Diaries from Walter Salles. Diaries was subject to controversy at the Oscars in the Best Foreign Language Film (now International Feature Film) competition. The Academy ruled it ineligible in that race because “it didn’t have sufficient elements from any of the countries to qualify” (huh?). It still picked up nods in Adapted Screenplay and won Original Song. With a doubling of nominees, I think voters would’ve found room for it. That’s especially since it should have been a lock in the foreign derby.
Racing drama F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt looks to finish first this weekend while campy horror sequel M3GAN 2.0 aims for a strong second. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
The range for F1 could be wide and it wouldn’t surprise me if it topped $50 million. The low bar appears to be in the mid 30s. With mostly solid reviews and fans of the sport likely to turn up (that could be more significant overseas), I’m going with a mid 40s premiere.
I’m definitely going on the lower end of the spectrum for M3GAN 2.0, the follow-up to 2023’s surprise hit. As I wrote in my post, I’m not convinced audiences are clamoring for the title character’s return. My low 20s projection puts it in the runner-up spot though not by much.
Current two-week champ How to Train Your Dragon could lose close to half its sophomore frame crowd for high teens in third. The four and five spot could be close between Elio and 28 Years Later in their second outings. The former had a historically weak debut (more on that below) while 28 Years also kicked off at the bottom portion of its anticipated spread. I suspect Elio will have a much better hold than Danny Boyle’s zombie threequel.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. F1: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $46.2 million
2. M3GAN 2.0
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million
3. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
4. Elio
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
Box Office Results (June 20-22)
How to Train Your Dragon managed to stay atop the charts, but it did have a heftier decline that I figured. The live-action remake of the DreamWorks animated original brought in $36.5 million compared to my $41.6 prediction for $160 million in its initial ten days.
28 Years Later was second with $30 million, not matching my $33.7 million call. While that’s easily the strongest debut of the trilogy (it’s been eighteen years since its predecessor), some prognosticators had this pegged at $35-$40 million. With a so-so B Cinemascore, the dip this weekend could be pronounced.
Pixar experienced its smallest debut ever courtesy of Elio at $20.8 million. I was slightly more generous with $24.5 million. Despite mostly solid reviews, the original story struggled to find its family audience as remakes and sequels dominate the season. It will hope for smallish declines in the weekends to come (something that occurred with 2023’s Elemental after its uninspired beginning).
Lilo & Stitch was fourth with $9.7 million, eclipsing my $8.1 million take. This live-action remake of an animated property now sits at $386 million after five weeks with $400M+ firmly in its sights.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) as the franchise finale(?) has made $178 million in five weeks.
Finally, Materialists was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.8 million, a bit under my $6.6 million forecast. The ten-day tally is $23 million.
As summer has officially kicked off, we are getting clarifications on some of the potential fall contenders for the Oscars. For example, the musical biopic about The Boss is titled Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and not just Deliver Me from Nowhere. Kathryn Bigelow’s first directorial feature in close to a decade is titled A House of Dynamite. Both will be out in October.
While the autumn releases reveal their names and dates, this summer’s offerings are revealing whether they’re awards players. In the case of Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later, it might mean a Makeup & Hairstyling nod while not contending in BP. As for Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie (out Friday), it could pick up a few tech nods. While BP is likely a long shot, it is worth mentioning as a top 25 possibility (for now). Disney/Pixar’s Elio will not be their third movie to vie for BP though an Animated Feature mention should be on the table. We will know soon whether Jurassic World Rebirth could be the first franchise entry since 1997’s The Lost World: Jurassic Park to grab a Visual Effects nomination.
I’m sticking with the six major categories for my projections though the screenplay races may be included in my next round in two weeks. There’s a lot among these races that has not changed, but there are some alterations to be discussed.
The trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere actually left me less convinced of its viability in some competitions. It could be just be a so-so (IMO) preview for the biopic. However, I’m dropping it from BP in favor of Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident. In Director, Accident maker Jafar Panahi replaces Frankenstein‘s Guillermo del Toro. Springsteen actors Jeremy Allen White and Jeremy Strong are still among my five picks in Actor and Supporting Actor, respectively. In Supporting Actress, I’ve elevated Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) over One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (E)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 16) (E)
17. Die, My Love (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 20) (+1)
20. Rental Family (PR: 22) (+2)
21. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (-2)
24. F1: The Movie (PR: 19) (-5)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sound of Falling
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 11) (E)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Scott Cooper, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-3)
Best Actress
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (E)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (E)
11. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Willem Dafoe, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-5)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (E)
11. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+2)
14. America Ferrera, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-2)
Elio attempts to become the 20th Pixar offering to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Academy Awards. Out this Friday, the sci-fi adventure is co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina. The voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Reviews are generally of the thumbs up variety, but not as laudatory as some other titles from Disney’s subsidiary. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82% with Metacritic at 62. For comparisons sake, Pixar’s Elemental from two years ago was in that range with a 58 on Meta and 73% RT.
That was enough for Elemental to get one of the five Animated Feature slots. It should also be enough for Elio. However, I’m far less confident it will be the 11th winner of the prize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:
Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.
Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.
Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strangein the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.
And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $84.6 million
2. Trap
Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. Harold and the Purple Crayon
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (July 26-28)
Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.
The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.
Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.
Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.
Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.
Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.
Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.
Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the frame ahead:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $176.1 million
2. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $42 million
3. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 19-21)
Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).
Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.
Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.
Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.
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