M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:
Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.
Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.
Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strangein the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.
And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $84.6 million
2. Trap
Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million
5. Harold and the Purple Crayon
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (July 26-28)
Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.
The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.
Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.
Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.
Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.
Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.
Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.
Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the frame ahead:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $176.1 million
2. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $42 million
3. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 19-21)
Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).
Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.
Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.
Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.
Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:
My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.
The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.
That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $72.3 million
2. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (July 12-14)
Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.
Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.
Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.
Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.
Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.
The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
3. Fly Me to the Moon
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (July 5-7)
As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.
Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.
Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.
Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.
Inside Out 2 has been responsible for animation domination and kickstarting the summer season for the past three weeks. Now it’s time for a new sequel to take over as Despicable Me 4 debuts Wednesday and looks to rule the holiday frame. We also have Ti West’s horror trilogy capper MaXXXine out Friday. My detailed prediction posts on both can be accessed here:
While not setting a franchise record like other follow-ups lately, I have Despicable Me 4 from Illumination Entertainment premiering in line with other entrees. That means a three-day near $80 million with over $125 million when counting Wednesday and Independence Day.
As for MaXXXine, my readers think I’m low. However, I’m struggling to see why it would debut too much higher than predecessors X and Pearl. I have it slated for a fifth place showing, but perhaps I’m not being generous enough.
Inside Out 2 will slide to second with perhaps a low to mid 40s percentage ease considering the Despicable competition. A Quiet Place: Day One may experience a 50-55% drop after its series best start (more on that below). The 4 slot (barring a MaXXXine over performance) should go to Bad Boys: Ride or Die with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 in sixth after its so-so unveiling.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $32.6 million
3. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $24 million
4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. MaXXXine
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
6. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
Box Office Results (June 28-30)
Despite the aforementioned loud opening from A Quiet Place: Day One, Disney/Pixar ruled the roost for a third weekend with Inside Out 2. It took in $57.5 million (just below my $61.5 million prediction) for a three-week haul of $469 million. The sequel also crossed a billion bucks worldwide.
Day One was second with $52.2 million, eclipsing my estimate of $46.3 million and the $50.2 million that A Quiet Place earned back in 2018. I do think its sophomore weekend dip will be more pronounced than part 1 (which only fell by a third). Either way it’s a fine result for a franchise that looks to keep chugging along.
The news wasn’t as good for Kevin Costner as his Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 lassoed $11 million in third compared to my $14.8 million projection. Reportedly self-funded by its star/writer/director, this is on the lower end of its range and troubling considering the rumored $100 million price tag.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die was fourth with $10.3 million (I said $11.2 million) for a four-week gross of $165 million.
Indian sci-fi tale Kalki 2898 AD was fifth with $5.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five and didn’t do a forecast.
The Bikeriders plummeted 66% to sixth with $3.3 million (I was generous at $4.6 million) for a mere $16 million in ten days.
Finally, Yorgos Lanthimos’s anthology Kinds of Kindness was ninth on just under 500 screens with $1.5 million. I thought it might get a bit more with a $3.2 million call.
Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:
My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.
That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).
Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.
The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $61.5 million
2. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $46.3 million
3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. The Bikeriders
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. Kinds of Kindness
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (June 21-23)
Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.
The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.
The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.
IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.
I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.
Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.
It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.
Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?
I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).
As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?
Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two overMcQueen.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)
17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)
18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)
21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)
24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bird
Kinds of Kindness
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Maria
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, TheEnd (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George MacKay, The End
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)
11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million
The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:
There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.
Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.
As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.
The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:
1. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $93.6 million
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
3. The Bikeriders
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. The Exorcism
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (June 14-16)
Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.
The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.
Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.
Of the 23 Best Animated Feature Oscar winners (the category didn’t start until 2001), Disney/Pixar has taken 11 of them. The Mouse Factory itself has picked up an additional four through their traditionally animated tales. One of the Pixar winners is 2015’s Inside Out and the sequel is out this weekend. Kelsey Mann makes his directorial debut with a voice cast including Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Tony Hale, Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, Kensington Tallman, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan.
Due to Disney and Pixar’s aforementioned track record, it’s no surprise that Inside Out 2 was the frontrunner for gold sight unseen. With the review embargo lifted, is that still true? Probably, but it’s not a slam dunk.
Reviews are unsurprisingly positive with a 91% RT score. Some of the reaction has critics in their feels as they say it’s on par with the original that managed a 98% Fresh rating. Other write-ups, while mainly of the thumbs up variety, say it doesn’t match its predecessor.
Disney has lost the Academy’s animated prize for two years running. In 2022, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio defeated Turning Red. Last year, The Boy and the Heron flew by Elemental. If the Oscars were held today, Inside Out 2 would likely emerge victorious. However, the year is only half over and other contenders are hoping to challenge it in the months to come. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.
Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.
Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. Thatcould mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $92.4 million
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. The Garfield Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
4. IF
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. The Watchers
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (June 7-9)
Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.
The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.
IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.
The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.
Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.
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