2008’s animated Star Wars: The Clone Wars is the only LucasFilm entry in nearly 50 years that failed to grab at least one Academy Award mention. The other 11 movies – Episodes I-IX, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and Solo: A Star Wars Story – have a combined 37 nominations. The Mandalorian and the Grogu could be the second title not to register with Oscar voters.
A continuation of the Disney Plus series, Jon Favreau directs with Pedro Pascal and Sigourney Weaver headlining and Jeremy Allen White providing voiceover work. A number of reviews are claiming it’s an unimpressive feature in the famed franchise with 61% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 54 Metacritic. That’s lower than the numbers that greeted Solo in 2018. It received a sole nomination for Visual Effects. That category and Ludwig Göransson’s score might be Grogu‘s only shots at inclusion, but it is entirely possible it won’t be included in ballots at all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Following a nearly six and a half year break between big screen releases, the Star Wars franchise blasts back into theaters over the Memorial Day holiday with The Mandalorian and Grogu. Building upon the Disney+ series The Mandalorian that aired from 2019 to 2023, Pedro Pascal returns in the title role with Jeremy Allen White voicing Rotta the Hutt and Sigourney Weaver in the human cast. Jon Favreau, who created the TV series, directs.
After Disney prioritized streaming content in the 2020s, this looks to kickstart multiplex studio efforts with Star Wars: Starfighter slated to open next Memorial Day weekend. Grogu is a real test for Star Wars fan loyalty. It can be argued that this would have fared better when the Disney+ show was fresher in the minds of viewers. The last two theatrical efforts -2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story and 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, were considered letdowns critically and commercially.
The best comp is Solo which debuted over the same holiday frame with $84 million from Friday to Sunday and $103 million when factoring Monday. Disney is surely hoping for nine figure bragging rights. I’m putting it under that for what would be considered a so-so start.
The Mandalorian and Grogu opening weekend prediction: $80.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $94.7 million (Friday to Monday)
Barely a month beyond the 98th edition of the Academy Awards, we have arrived at my first ranked predictions for the 99th ceremony. We begin with six major categories – Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies.
I gave you my first ranked glimpses for the previous telecast around the same time last year in these same races. How did that impossibly early forecast turn out? I correctly called four of the eventual ten BP nominees with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners. Winner One Battle After Another as well as Bugonia, F1, and Frankenstein were listed in Other Possibilities. So 80% of the BP contenders were identified with The Secret Agent and Train Dreams not being mentioned in April 2025.
In Best Director, three of the five filmmakers were predicted: Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value). Statue recipient Paul Thomas Anderson from One Battle and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet) were in Other Possibilities.
As for Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) swept the season and was in my predicted quintet. So was Sentimental Value‘s Renate Reinsve while Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) wasn’t listed. In Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was in my quintet. Three others – winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) were Other Possibilities with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) as the sole thespian not identified.
My projected Supporting Actress five rightly named Teyana Taylor (One Battle) with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) as a possibility. Fanning’s costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Wumni Mosaku (Sinners), and the victorious Amy Madigan (Weapons) were not found among my possibilities. In Supporting Actor, Stellan Skarsgård from Value was in my five with winner Sean Penn (One Battle) and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) as possibilities. Battle‘s Benicio del Toro and Frankenstein‘s Jacob Elordi were not to be found yet.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way. Some of the performers listed in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. As an example, I figured Paul Mescal (Hamnet) would go lead for that film last year, but he was slotted in supporting. He ended up not being nominated but likely came close. For instance in this year’s listings, I don’t know if Sam Rockwell will be lead or supporting for Wild Horse Nine but my hunch says the latter at press time. The distributor will eventually clear that up.
We will see pictures push to 2027. When I did my initial projections a year ago for 2025, Michael and The Rivals of Amziah King were thought to be releases for that calendar frame. Both are being put out in ’26. I have Michael still as a potential nominee in some competitions. Not so at this time for Rivals.
And now the most important forewarning. Some movies you find below will turn out to be non-contenders. My inaugural look at the 98th Oscars listed Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt at #1 in Best Picture, Director, Actress (Julia Roberts), #4 in Supporting Actress (Ayo Edebiri), and #2 in Supporting Actor (Andrew Garfield). After its Venice festival premiere, the mixed to negative reaction drastically changed its narrative. It ended up with zero nominations. My April 2025 #1’s in the supporting fields – Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) – did not make final cut either.
So take this speculation as what it is – speculative. The picture and Best Picture will become clearer in time. That said, a reminder that 80% of the BP nominees were mentioned a year ago in addition to 100% of the directors and 80% of the lead acting hopefuls could be found in the initial post. On the flip side, nearly all of my acting picks for a nomination are coming from projected BP nominees and the percentage probably won’t be quite that high.
When Sinners came out last year, it was a box office juggernaut with widespread critical acclaim. Yet I wondered whether the spring release could mean it would fall by the wayside months down the line. That’s why I named it in Other Possibilities for Picture, Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. What happened months down the line? A record-setting 16 nominations with Jordan winning Actor. I won’t make the same mistake with Project Hail Mary. It has been out for weeks and already looks like a strong contender in Picture, Director, Actor, and possibly Supporting Actress. Another note – it’s not often (or maybe ever) you see a performer mentioned four times. That’s the case at the moment with the busy Sandra Hüller who is a legit threat twice in lead Actress and supporting.
You can expect these posts to hit the blog every couple of weeks until it becomes weekly. This should occur when festival season goes into overdrive in last summer/early fall.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Digger
5. Fjord
6. No One Cares
7. All of a Sudden
8. Fatherland
9. The Social Reckoning
10. Dune: Part Three
Other Possibilities:
11. Narnia: The Magican’s Nephew
12. A Place in Hell
13. A Long Winter
14. The Entertainment System is Down
15. Being Heumann
16. Cry to Heaven
17. Josephine
18. Werwulf
19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20. Michael
21. Paper Tiger
22. Saturn Return
23. Sense and Sensibility
24. Jack of Spades
25. Behemoth!
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
3. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
5.Cristian Mingiu, Fjord
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
7. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland
8. Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
9. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
10. Greta Gerwig, Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew
11. Ruben Östlund, The Entertainment System is Down
12. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
13. Aaron Sorkin, The Social Reckoning
14. Robert Eggers, Werwulf
15. David Fincher, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
2. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
3. Julianne Moore, No One Cares
4. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
5. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell
Other Possibilities:
6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden
7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
8. Mason Reeves, Josephine
9. Sophie Okenedo, Clarissa
10. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
11. Sandra Hüller, Rose
12. Lily Gladstone, The Memory Police
13. Rachel Brosnahan, Saturn Return
14. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Hanns Zischler, Fatherland
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
7. Robert Aramayo, I Swear
8. Dominic Sessa, Tony
9. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven
10. Jafaar Jackson, Michael
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three
12. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!
13. Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
14. Charles Melton, Saturn Return
15. John Turturro, The Only Pickpocket Living in New York
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
3. Halle Bailey, No One Cares
4. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
Other Possibilities:
6. Sandra Hüller, Digger
7. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
8.. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary
9. Caitriona Balfe, A Long Winter
10. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger
11. Wunmi Mosaku, The Social Reckoning
12. Kirsten Dunst, The Entertainment System is Down
13. Gemma Chan, Josephine
14. Frances McDormand, Jack of Spades
15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
4. Colman Domingo, Michael
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
7. Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell
8. Tom Holland, The Odyssey
9. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann
10. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter
11. Jesse Plemons, Digger
12. Channing Tatum, Josephine
13. David Oyelowo, Clarissa
14. Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.
He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.
We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.
For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?
The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.
The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.
Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.
The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.
Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.
Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $122.4 million
2. Superman
Predicted Gross: $28 million
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. F1
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.
Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.
While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.
Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.
F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.
Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).
The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to set the box office ablaze when it opens July 25th. It is the 37th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth overall picture headlined by the superhero family that made their first comic book appearance nearly 65 years ago. Matt Shakman directs with Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the title characters. Costars include Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson.
The first FF flick since Disney’s acquisition of Fox, it arrives a decade after the failure of the previous reboot starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan. This is not expected to flop with the MCU brand behind it and solid buzz building. All it needs to be the best Fantastic opening is topping 2007’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer‘s $58 million. It should double that figure with room to spare.
The benchmark could be Superman‘s $125 million opening from last weekend. When this rolls around, Supes will be in its third weekend and fans could be ready for the next tentpole. Early tracking has this foursome right around the Man of Steel’s first frame. I’ll buy the hype, but say it falls a tad short.
The Fantastic Four: First Steps opening weekend prediction: $122.4 million
Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:
I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.
As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.
I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.
There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Superman
Predicted Gross: $56.2 million
2. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $19.1 million
3. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
4. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
5. F1
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (July 11-13)
Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.
Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.
F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.
How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.
Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.
Ari Aster’s fourth feature Eddington hits screens July 18th after a May premiere at Cannes. The small town set satire takes place during the height of COVID with Joaquin Phoenix (who starred in Aster’s predecessor Beau is Afraid) and the suddenly everywhere Pedro Pascal headlining. Other cast members include Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.
Reviews from the French fest were mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. That buzz zapped any awards chatter for the A24 feature. This has the appearance of an autumn release trapped in midsummer and I am doubtful that adult crowds will turn up. For one thing, audiences might be hesitant to relive the lockdown days of a half decade ago. If this gets over $5 million, I’d be surprised.
Eddington opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my I Know What You Did Last Summer prediction, click here:
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
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