Tag: Pedro Pascal

Oscar Predictions – The Fantastic Four: First Steps

The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.

Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.

The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.

Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.

Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:

1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Predicted Gross: $122.4 million

2. Superman

Predicted Gross: $28 million

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

4. F1

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

6. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.

Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.

While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.

Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.

F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.

Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Fantastic Four: First Steps Box Office Prediction

The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to set the box office ablaze when it opens July 25th. It is the 37th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and fourth overall picture headlined by the superhero family that made their first comic book appearance nearly 65 years ago. Matt Shakman directs with Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach as the title characters. Costars include Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson.

The first FF flick since Disney’s acquisition of Fox, it arrives a decade after the failure of the previous reboot starring Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan. This is not expected to flop with the MCU brand behind it and solid buzz building. All it needs to be the best Fantastic opening is topping 2007’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer‘s $58 million. It should double that figure with room to spare.

The benchmark could be Superman‘s $125 million opening from last weekend. When this rolls around, Supes will be in its third weekend and fans could be ready for the next tentpole. Early tracking has this foursome right around the Man of Steel’s first frame. I’ll buy the hype, but say it falls a tad short.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps opening weekend prediction: $122.4 million

July 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two new franchise reboots will attempt to exceed expectations and post strong second and third place showings while two existing franchise reboots seek to stay 1-2. I Know What You Did Last Summer and Smurfs are the rookie contenders. We also have Ari Aster’s Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and Pedro Pascal out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction
Smurfs Box Office Prediction
Eddington Box Office Prediction

I Know What You Did Last Summer continues the horror saga we witnessed in the late 90s. I think this has the potential to hit low 20s, but I’ll go along with projections in the mid to higher teens. My take puts it not far behind Jurassic World Rebirth for third place.

As for Smurfs, this reinvigoration of this franchise after eight years is not expected to yield impressive results. Like Summer, it could top general forecasts. However, I’m agreeing that low double digits to possibly low teens will be the result and that means fourth place.

I’m not expecting audiences to visit Eddington. The satire, despite some star power, is flying under the radar. As mentioned in my post, I don’t anticipate a desire from moviegoers to revisit the heyday of the COVID pandemic when this is set. My $3.4 million projection would leave it outside the top five and probably in seventh place.

There’s no real mystery what will place first and that would be James Gunn’s Superman in its sophomore outing. The only question is how much it drops in weekend #2. A number close to Thunderbolts* (56%) from earlier this summer would make sense. I doubt it plummets to the degree that 2013’s Man of Steel did at 65%. I’ll say mid to high 50s is the most likely result.

Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:

1. Superman

Predicted Gross: $56.2 million

2. Jurassic World Rebirth

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. I Know What You Did Last Summer

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

4. Smurfs

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

5. F1

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

Superman, as predicted, blasted off with the third best opening of 2025 at $125 million. That’s a tad shy of my $128.6 million call. Generally in line with its anticipated range, it gets this iteration of the DC Universe off to a respectable start and the A- Cinemascore grade is decent as well.

Jurassic World Rebirth held better than I figured with $40.3 million in second compared to my $34.2 million estimate. The dino tale stands at $232 million after ten days and it should be safe to assume the franchise isn’t extinct.

F1 was third with $13 million (I said $13.3 million) as the racing drama has made $136 million after three weeks.

How to Train Your Dragon was fourth with $7.9 million, rising above my $6.8 million forecast for a five-week haul of $239 million.

Finally, Disney’s disappointing Elio took the 5 spot with $4 million (I went with $3.4 million). The four-week gross is $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Eddington Box Office Prediction

Ari Aster’s fourth feature Eddington hits screens July 18th after a May premiere at Cannes. The small town set satire takes place during the height of COVID with Joaquin Phoenix (who starred in Aster’s predecessor Beau is Afraid) and the suddenly everywhere Pedro Pascal headlining. Other cast members include Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.

Reviews from the French fest were mixed with 67% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. That buzz zapped any awards chatter for the A24 feature. This has the appearance of an autumn release trapped in midsummer and I am doubtful that adult crowds will turn up. For one thing, audiences might be hesitant to relive the lockdown days of a half decade ago. If this gets over $5 million, I’d be surprised.

Eddington opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my I Know What You Did Last Summer prediction, click here:

I Know What You Did Last Summer Box Office Prediction

For my Smurfs prediction, click here:

Smurfs Box Office Prediction

June 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

28 Years Later Box Office Prediction
Elio Box Office Prediction

28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.

The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.

If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).

Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million

2. 28 Years Later

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Elio

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

4. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Materialists

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)

Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.

Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.

Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.

At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

June 13-15 Box Office Predictions

A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction
Materialists Box Office Prediction

Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.

Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.

Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. How to Train Your Dragon

Predicted Gross: $84.3 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Materialists

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

4. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.

That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.

Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.

Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.

That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Materialists

Celine Song’s 2023 debut Past Lives was a Best Picture and Original Screenplay nominee and her sophomore feature Materialists arrives in theaters this weekend. A rom com with considerable emotional heft according to reviews, it stars Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans.

The word-of-mouth for the A24 release indicates there’s no sophomore slump for Song with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. If the Academy considers Materialists their material, Original Screenplay is a possibility. Chris Evans is also getting some of the best notices of his career.

Yet I suspect its distributor could focus more on its fall slate, namely Marty Supreme. If A24 slots this into the Musical/Comedy competitions at the Golden Globes, it could contend in that Best Picture race with Johnson as a Best Actress hopeful. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Materialists Box Office Prediction

A24 rom com Materialists is writer/director Celine Song’s follow-up to 2023 Best Picture nominee Past Lives. Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal headline the summer counter programming offering that looks to bring in a respectable female crowd.

While official reviews aren’t yet released, early word-of-mouth from screenings indicates this could be a winner. Audience familiarity with its trilogy of leads could assist. Tracking currently has this at high single digits. I think this could slightly outdo that range and reach low double digits.

Materialists opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my How to Train Your Dragon prediction, click here:

How to Train Your Dragon Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Eddington

A contemporary Western set during the early days of COVID, Eddington is Ari Aster’s fourth feature which has premiered at Cannes prior to its July 18th stateside release. A24’s topical tale reunites Aster with his Beau Is Afraid lead Joaquin Phoenix along with Pedro Pascal, Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.

The auteur’s career kicked off with Hereditary and Midsommar, two horror experiences that are among the genre’s best reviewed in recent years. Beau had a considerably more polarizing reaction and Eddington appears to be doing the same. Early reviews have this at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 67 Metacritic.

While the strongest reviews are quite strong, the varied buzz from France likely means this won’t be a serious awards contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…