Tag: Paper Towns

Box Office Predictions: July 31-August 2

As July comes to a close, two new entries look to nab the top spots at the box office this weekend as Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and comedy reboot Vacation debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/23/mission-impossible-rogue-nation-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/24/vacation-box-office-prediction/

Tom Cruise’s fifth go round as Ethan Hunt should have no problem at all taking the #1 spot while I look for Vacation to land in the runner-up spot.

As for holdovers, I look for Minions to hold up better than current champ Ant-Man, allowing them to place third and fourth. Adam Sandler’s Pixels had a very poor premiere (more on that below) and I look for it to experience the heftiest decline, putting it in a close race for fifth with Trainwreck and Southpaw.

And with that, we’ll do a top seven predictions for this weekend:

1. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $52.3 million

2. Vacation

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Minions

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Pixels

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)

6. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 41%)

7. Southpaw

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (July 24-26)

Marvel’s Ant-Man surprisingly held onto the #1 slot in its second weekend with $24.9 million, in line with my $25.6M projection. It has grossed a solid $106M in its first ten days of release.

The “surprise” is that Pixels was expected to top the charts, yet it tanked with a $24 million opening – less than half of my extremely generous $49M prediction. The critically panned video game pic represents another poor performance from Adam Sandler, whose box office star has been waning in recent years.

Minions was third with $22.9 million, on target with my $23.4M estimate and the animated hit has brought in $262M.

Trainwreck held up admirably for fourth in weekend #2 with $17.2 million (a bit under my $18.7M prediction) for a total of $61 million. The Judd Apatow comedy should top $100M when all is said and done.

Jake Gyllenhaal’s boxing drama Southpaw exceeded most expectations with a sturdy $16.7 million, ahead of my $12.9M projection.

Finally, teen romance Paper Towns (based on a John Green bestseller) had a less than expected roll out with just $12.6 million, considerably below my $26.8M estimate. While Towns has a tiny budget and will easily profit, this is disappointing considering The Fault in Our Stars (also based on a Green novel) made $48M out of the gate last summer.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: July 24-26

Three new titles populate the multiplex this weekend as the video game inspired family comedy Pixels, adaptation of John Green bestseller Paper Towns, and Jake Gyllenhaal boxing drama Southpaw all debut. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/16/pixels-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/17/paper-towns-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/17/southpaw-box-office-prediction/

I expect Pixels to easily nab the #1 spot, though it is worth noting that my prediction is higher than some other prognosticators are putting it at. And to be fair, I overestimated Ant-Man this past weekend (more on that below). Still, it’s tough to imagine it not debuting in first place.

It could be a very tight race between Paper Towns, Ant-Man, and Minions for the runner-up position. I am estimating Towns manages to get there with Ant-Man and Minions losing over half their previous frame audiences in their respective second and third weekends.

Amy Schumer’s comedy Trainwreck should suffer the smallest decline of holdovers after its robust roll out. That would leave Southpaw outside of the top five with a sixth place showing and it’ll certainly need to greatly exceed expectations to avoid that fate.

And with that, it’s a top 6 predictions this weekend:

1. Pixels

Predicted Gross: $49 million

2. Paper Towns

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Ant-Man

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Minions

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. Trainwreck

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Southpaw

Predicted Gross: $12.9 milion

Box Office Results (July 17-19)

Disney/Marvel once again saw its product debut at #1, but Ant-Man managed just the 11th highest opening in their 12 film Marvel Cinematic Universe (only 2008’s The Incredible Hulk started lower). The Paul Rudd pic grossed $57.2 million, well under my $73.3M estimate. Still, expectations were not quite as sky high for this entry and it represents a decent gross, albeit on the lower end of the scale.

Minions dropped to second with $49.2 million, under my $56.9M prediction. The Despicable Me spin-off has amassed $215 million in ten days.

Amy Schumer became a movie star over the weekend as her critically acclaimed Trainwreck posted a fantastic $30 million opening, just ahead of my $27.8M projection. As mentioned, I anticipate solid word of mouth to keep this chugging along over the next couple of weekends.

Pixar’s Inside Out was fourth with $11.5 million (I said $10.5M) for a total of $306 million while Jurassic World was fifth with $11.4 million (I said $11.1M) for an amazing $611 million current gross.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Paper Towns Box Office Prediction

Last summer, the box office potency of YA author John Green flexed its muscle when The Fault in Our Stars debuted to $48 million. On Friday, Paper Towns arrives and it’s another adaptation from one of Green’s bestsellers. It is expected that the involvement of his name alone should propel Towns to a healthy start.

The teen drama stars relative unknowns (though probably not for long) Cara Delevingne and Nat Wolff. Reviews have been fairly strong and it currently holds a solid 83% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s easy to imagine that Towns will succeed in bringing in a hefty portion of its intended younger female demographic.

That said, nobody expects it to reach the heights of Stars and it shouldn’t. It could over perform and take in $30M+, but I feel a more likely scenario is an opening in the mid to high 20s. Either way, considering its tiny reported $2.4 budget, 20th Century Fox should be celebrating next weekend.

Paper Towns opening weekend prediction: $26.8 million

For my Pixels prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/16/pixels-box-office-prediction/

For my Southpaw prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/07/17/southpaw-box-office-prediction/