Tag: Paddington

February 14-17 Box Office Predictions

For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction
Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.

Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.

It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.

And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

3. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

4. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.

Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.

Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.

Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.

Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.

Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Peter Hujar’s Day

Critics are liking the hang for Peter Hujar’s Day out of Sundance, the latest feature from indie auteur Ira Sachs. The two-hander casts Ben Whishaw in the title role of the real-life photographer known for his work in the 1970s and 80s. Rebecca Hall is his writer friend.

Originally meant to be a short film, it still is definitionally at a brisk 76 minutes. This is Sachs’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2023 Passages, which collected four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Film and Mr. Whishaw in Supporting Actor.

Known to many moviegoers as Q from Daniel Craig’s 007 run (or the voice of Paddington), Whishaw is getting lots of Park City praise for his lead role. The pic itself stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic. Like Passages, I’d say this is more Indie Spirit friendly than Oscar. The eventual distributor might be wise to campaign in that space. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Paddington in Peru

The title character that first debuted over 65 years ago in Michael Bond’s children’s books is onscreen for the third time via Paddington in Peru. The mix of live-action and animation arrives a decade after Paddington and seven years after the sequel with Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Ben Whishaw is back voicing the bear with a supporting cast including Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Olivia Colman, Imelda Staunton, and Antonio Banderas. It arrives in the United Kingdom Friday with its North American release not coming until January 17th (therefore making it eligible for the Oscars after the next one).

This is, in fact, more of a BAFTA Predictions write-up than an Oscar one. Neither of Peru‘s predecessors generated Academy attention despite warm reviews. On the other hand, the British Academy bit. The original was nominated for Best British Film and for its Adapted Screenplay. Part 2 was up for the same pair of awards plus Hugh Grant in Supporting Actor. The pics went 0 for 5 in terms of victories.

The Rotten Tomatoes score for the third adventure is 91%. Yet it’s Metacritic that tells the real story. Paddington had 77 on that site while the sequel improved upon that with 88. Peru is stuck at 58. That probably means that BAFTA will not honor part 3 in any way. My Oscar… and BAFTA related… Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Limonov: The Ballad

To stateside audiences, Ben Whishaw might be best known as Q in the last three Daniel Craig 007 pics or as the voice of Paddington in those two acclaimed family flicks. He is hoping to generate awards chatter in Limonov: The Ballad which has premiered at Cannes.

Whishaw plays the title role of a Russian dissident who founded the National Bolshevik Party in the early 1990s. Kirill Serebrennikov directs with a screenplay cowritten by Pawel Pawlikowski (the Oscar nominated maker of 2018’s Cold War). Costars include Tomas Arana and Sandrine Bonnaire.

Reviews thus far are mixed enough that I question its viability in awards conversations. Despite Whishaw getting some high marks, the real-life character he’s playing might be too controversial for him to factor into discussions as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wonka Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros hopes audiences will take a look and then they’ll see pure dollar signs when Wonka opens December 15th. Timothee Chalamet takes over the iconic title role already filled by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2015. The musical fantasy comes from Paul King, best known for Paddington and its sequel. Costars include Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Boynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant.

An origin story about Roald Dahl’s eccentric chocolatier, the $125 million budgeted confection is generating mostly strong reviews at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Hoping to sell lots of golden tickets, it could experience small declines in the holiday weekends ahead.

That may mean its debut isn’t gigantic even though it could be solid. The rosiest out of the gate projections could be in the mid 40s to even $50 million. I’ll say it starts in the mid 30s but word-of-mouth and the time of year could propel it to impressive holds in the future.

Wonka opening weekend prediction: $36.4 million

Oscar Predictions: Wonka

Wonka hopes to score some sweet box office business when it debuts December 15th, but could awards voters take notice? Telling the origin story of Roald Dahl’s iconic chocolatier, Timothee Chalamet steps into the title role previously played by Gene Wilder in 1971 and Johnny Depp in 2005. Paul King, best known for making Paddington and its sequel, directs. The supporting cast includes Keegan-Michael Key, Paterson Joseph, Matt Lucas, Mathew Baynton, Sally Hawkins, Rowan Atkinson, Jim Carter, Tom Davis, Olivia Colman, and Hugh Grant as an Oompa-Loompa.

The review embargo is lifted and early results are solid with an 80% Rotten Tomatoes score. It is worth noting that it’s under both Gene Wilder’s classic (91%) and the 2005 remake (83%).

Wonka‘s best shot at Academy attention is in tech races (though don’t be surprised if Chalamet nabs a Golden Globe nod for Actor in a Musical/Comedy). It could score a Costume Design nomination like Charlie did 18 years ago. The best shot might lie in its Production Design though competition is fierce with contenders like Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie, Oppenheimer, The Color Purple, Asteroid City, and Napoleon. There simply might not be enough room.

One last possibility is Original Song, particularly “A World Of Your Own” crooned by Chalamet. I haven’t had it my top ten in previous predictions, but it might show up there in the next update. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Paddington 2 Box Office Prediction

Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington 2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.

The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.

Paddington 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Post prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

For my The Commuter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

For my Proud Mary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 13-15

It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/fifty-shades-of-grey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/02/07/kingsman-the-secret-service-box-office-prediction/

The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Fifty Shades of Grey

Predicted Gross: $63.1 million

2. Kingsman: The Secret Service

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Jupiter Ascending

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.

American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.

Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.

Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.

Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.

That’s all for now folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: February 6-8

The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/the-spongebob-movie-sponge-out-of-water-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/jupiter-ascending-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/seventh-son-box-office-prediction/

I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.

And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:

1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

2. Jupiter Ascending 

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. American Sniper

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Seventh Son

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Paddington

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)

Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.

With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.

Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.

The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.

Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.

The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.

New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…