Tag: Pablo Larrain

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Director Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Sunday, January 19th (note the new date) prior to the announcement on Thursday, January 23rd. Note that new date too as the Academy pushed back the nomination unveilings due to the California wildfires. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

The fifth post in this series is Best Director. If you missed my write-ups for the acting derbies, you can access them here:

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actor Race
97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Supporting Actress Race

Similar to Best Actor, I believe there are four hopefuls represented here that you don’t want to bet against. There is a quartet of filmmakers who have been nominated in the four most significant precursors (DGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice). They are Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), and Brady Corbet (The Brutalist). Mr. Corbet won the Globe while the other races are TBD. I wouldn’t leave any of them out of your predictions.

So it all comes down to the fifth slot and I will discuss seven possibilities that I feel are viable. Before we get to that, there are the directors who might’ve had a shot before their pictures premiered. The movies either became non-contenders due to poor buzz and reviews or just never properly caught on in the awards chatter. This list includes Francis Ford Coppola (Megalopolis), Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux), Yorgos Lanthimos (Kinds of Kindness), Ridley Scott (Gladiator II), George Miller (Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga), Joshua Oppenheimer (The End), Pablo Larrain (Maria), Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) and Steve McQueen (Blitz).

The next level includes makers of movies that didn’t quite reach BP consideration and even some that could make the cut at BP. I’m looking at Tim Fehlbaum (September 5), Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing), Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Walter Salles (I’m Still Here), Robert Eggers (Nosferatu) and Luca Guadagnino for Challengers and Queer.

Now let’s get to the 7 individuals fighting for the 5th spot, shall we?

Jon M. Chu directed one of the year’s largest blockbusters in Wicked. However, he has only picked up a Critics Choice precursor mention in which there were eight nominees. I’d rank him 6th of these 7 possibilities.

Coralie Fargeat’s behind the camera work for The Substance has yielded her Globe, Critics Choice, and BAFTA noms. The notable omission is DGA, but DGA/Oscar seldom match completely. I have her 1st of these 7 possibilities.

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) got in the Globes mix but couldn’t make it anywhere else. She’s 5th of the 7 possibilities.

James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) was the surprise fifth contender at DGA and Unknown has been exceeding expectations at precursors as we arrive at Oscar nominations. Under the same logic seen above with Fargeat, I have Mangold 3rd of the 7 possibilities.

Mohammad Rasoulof’s direction of The Seed of the Sacred Fig was once seen a strong hopeful. Fig has, however, seemingly fallen out of BP contention and Rasoulof has not been nominated at any of the aforementioned shows. He’s 7th of the 7 possibilities.

RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) made the octet of Critics Choice contestants and has been absent elsewhere. Boys is a question mark for BP inclusion and I have Ross 4th of the 7 possibilities.

Finally, Denis Villeneuve was a shocking snub in 2021 with Dune. For Dune: Part Two, he’s missed DGA and the Globes but was included in Critics Choice and BAFTA. The Academy might seek to rectify their ’21 activity. At the moment, I have him 2nd of the 7 possibilities for the last slot.

OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Director for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Sunday when I do final picks. I’ll have that all-important dive into Best Picture up next!

97th Academy Awards: The FINAL State of the Best Actress Race

My final predictions for nominees at the 97th Academy Awards arrives this Wednesday, January 15th prior to the announcement on Sunday, January 19th. Before I make them, I’m taking a deeper dive into the six major categories (Picture, Director, the four acting derbies) with detailed thoughts on where I think each race stands.

Let’s begin with Best Actress as it might be the most tricky of all to figure out (though the supporting competitions are up there too). I believe there are three performers whose nominations you can write down in pen.

For months, I’ve had Mikey Madison (Anora) listed in 1st place for her work in Anora. She’s been nominated everywhere she needs to be – Golden Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, the BAFTA long list. The film is definitely in the top 5 of Best Picture hopefuls. In other words, she’s in.

That said, just yesterday, I slid her from 1st to 2nd in favor of Demi Moore in The Substance. That’s mainly because Moore was victorious over Madison at the Golden Globes in the Actress (Musical or Comedy) category. Furthermore, Hollywood loves a comeback story. That is present with Demi. She managed all the aforementioned precursors that Madison has and there’s a win in her favor. I do believe the Oscar could go to either of them, but this seems reminiscent of Best Actor in 2022. Austin Butler (Elvis) was the young upstart like Madison. Brendan Fraser (The Whale) was the once major movie star in a comeback vehicle that also involved heavy makeup work. Fraser got the gold.

I would put Moore and Madison’s chances of making the final five at 100% or at least 99.9999999%. The third “pen” pick is Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez. She would make history as the Academy’s first trans nominee. Gascón also made the cut at the key precursors and shared a Cannes victory for Best Actress with her costars. Some prognosticators have started wondering whether she’s a guaranteed nominee. While she’s maybe not a total certainty like our previous actresses, I’d say it’s really close. After all, Emilia Pérez might get the most nominations of any picture this time around. I don’t see that occurring without Emilia Pérez being in contention.

And then… it gets complicated. Before we move to the several performers jockeying for two spots, let’s pour one out for these actresses whose campaigns never got off the ground. In some cases, the films underperformed significantly with critics and audiences. In others, their studios didn’t mount an offensive drive for their inclusion. Some examples are Florence Pugh (We Live in Time), Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders), Ryan Destiny (The Fire Inside), Daisy Ridley (Young Woman and the Sea), Regina King (Shirley), Lily-Rose Depp (Nosferatu), and Marisa Abela (Back to Black). Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and June Squibb (Thelma) received a little more attention. However, they failed to show up in any significant other awards lists.

After that lengthy group, there’s a next level. These are actresses who may have shown up in some precursors or long lists, but aren’t expected to materialize in the Oscar quintet. Their chances aren’t completely out of reach like those in the previous paragraph. Yet it’s close. I would put Julianne Moore’s The Room Next Door costar Tilda Swinton in this class. Same with Zendaya (Challengers) and Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun).

This leaves us with eight performances vying for two spots: Amy Adams (Nightbitch), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), and Kate Winslet (Lee). Let’s walk through them one by one, shall we?

Amy Adams has the narrative of being long overdue for an Oscar. Despite six nominations, she’s yet to hear her name called. On paper, this seemed like a strong possibility but so-so reviews for Nightbitch have not helped. Despite a Globe nod and being in the BAFTA long list, I have her 8th of these 8 possibilities.

I might be more inclined to put Anderson in my five if it weren’t for Demi Moore’s comeback narrative. The Baywatch starlet is getting career best notices for this indie drama even if the film itself is drawing more mixed reactions. Her Globe nomination in Actress (Drama) wasn’t a huge surprise. The SAG nod this week was and it does increase her viability. I have her 5th of these 8 possibilities.

Cynthia Erivo is starring in one of the year’s largest blockbusters with Globe, SAG, Critics Choice, and the BAFTA long list preceding a potential Oscar nod. If she were to win, Erivo would achieve EGOT status as she already has an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony on her resume. The only question mark is whether the amount of performers could squeeze her out. I doubt it. Erivo is ranked 1st of these 8 possibilities.

Marianne Jean-Baptiste is receiving plenty of critics prizes for her role in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Critics Choice and the BAFTA long list are in her corner though she notably missed SAG and the Globes. Leigh has a history of getting his actors nominated. Seeing her in the eventual quintet would not surprise, but she’s 4th of my 8 possibilities at press time.

Angelina Jolie’s inclusion for Pablo Larrain’s Maria seemed assured at one point after the picture premiered in Venice. In hindsight, the troubling signs could have been evident immediately. She did not take Best Actress at that festival. Since then, she’s missed SAG and the BAFTA long list while competing for the Globe and being nominated for Critics Choice. Her most notable blow came at the Globes. She was favored to win Best Actress in a Drama but fell short to Fernanda Torres. I still think she could get in though I have her just on the outside looking in and 3rd of my 8 possibilities.

For her performance in Babygirl, Nicole Kidman did win Best Actress at Venice and Globe and BAFTA long list spots followed. The recent snubs at Critics Choice and SAG are hard to ignore. She’s 6th among these 8 possibilities.

Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here had no major other precursors to her credit besides the Globe. No BAFTA long list. No Critics Choice. And no SAG attention this week. That win at the Globes, though, looms large and it occurred just as Academy voting was underway. That’s why she’s 2nd of these 8 possibilities.

Finally, Kate Winslet as Lee showed up at the Globes and BAFTA long list. Reviews for the project itself aren’t overly impressive. Winslet could get in because, well, she’s Kate Winslet. Nevertheless she’s 7th of these 8 possibilities.

Whew. OK. There you have it. My microscope analysis of Best Actress for the 97th Academy Awards. Let’s see how it shakes out Wednesday when I do my final picks. I’ll have a dive into Supporting Actor up next!

    Oscar Predictions: Maria

    Pablo Larraín’s latest biopic about an iconic woman facing tragic circumstances has hit the Venice circuit with Telluride to follow this weekend. Maria casts Angelina Jolie as renowned opera singer Maria Callas. Set during her final days, it completes a thematic trilogy from Larraín preceded by 2016’s Jackie and 2021’s Spencer. Costars include Valeria Golino, Haluk Bilginer, and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Netflix picked up distribution rights on the eve of its premiere and it is expected to stream by year’s end.

    It’s been some time since Jolie had a role expected to garner awards attention. 25 years ago, she won Best Supporting Actress for Girl, Interrupted. Her other nomination, in lead Actress, came for 2008’s Changeling. Her director for Maria has an impressive track record with leading performer nominations. Natalie Portman’s work as Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis in Jackie made the final five eight years ago and she ultimately fell short to Emma Stone (La La Land). As Princess Diana in Spencer, Kristen Stewart was up in Actress with Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) taking gold. Stewart’s nod marked Spencer‘s only nomination while Jackie contended in Costume Design and Original Score. Note that neither received noms in Picture, Director, or for their screenplays.

    Early word-of-mouth from Italy indicates that Maria might be the weakest of the three films (the RT score is currently 72%). Jolie is mostly receiving kudos and Netflix is likely to mount a serious campaign. Down the line tech mentions for Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Cinematography are feasible. However, I do wonder if the somewhat lackluster write-ups could mean Jolie is the only possibility. I’ve had Golino listed toward the bottom of other possibilities in Supporting Actress, but her role is apparently just one scene. You can expect to see her drop out in my next predictions post.

    I’ve had Jolie parked in second place (behind Amy Adams in Nightbitch) for weeks in Actress. She still may be in the top 5 when I update on Monday and I suspect she will. Will she stay in second place? I’m more unsure of that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 23rd Edition

    It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.

    Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?

    I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).

    As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?

    Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two over McQueen.

    You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

    4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)

    6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)

    12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)

    15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)

    16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)

    17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)

    18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)

    20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)

    21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)

    22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)

    23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)

    24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)

    25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Bird

    Kinds of Kindness

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)

    11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Pablo Larrain, Maria

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)

    2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle

    Demi Moore, The Substance

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)

    11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    George MacKay, The End

    Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)

    14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)

    15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    Emily Watson, Small Things like These

    Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    12. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux

    Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The End (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-3)

    10. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (E)

    11. The Apprentice (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Dídi (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Maria (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)

    15. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 11) (-4)

    Dropped Out:

    We Live in Time

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Queer (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Hit Man (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Fire Inside (PR: 10 (E)

    11. The Collaboration (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Here (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Inside Out 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (E)

    15. The Actor (PR: 12) (-3)

    Dropped Out:

    Small Things like These

    97th Academy Awards Predictions: June 9th Edition

    My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.

    The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.

    In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.

    A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.

    It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

    2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)

    6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

    12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)

    13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)

    14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)

    15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)

    16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)

    17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)

    18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)

    19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)

    20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)

    21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)

    22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)

    24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)

    25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Not Ranked:

    Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Civil War

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)

    7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)

    11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

    13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

    Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness

    George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

    5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)

    10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)

    12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)

    13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)

    Dropped Out:

    Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting

    Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)

    11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)

    12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)

    13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)

    15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    Paul Bettany, The Collaboration

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead

    4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)

    7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)

    11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)

    13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

    14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)

    15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead

    Robin Wright, Here

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)

    8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)

    11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)

    12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)

    13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)

    14. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 11) (-3)

    15. Javier Bardem, Dune: Part Two (PR: 15) (E)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Anora

    2. Blitz

    3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig

    4. The End

    5. His Three Daughters

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Hard Truths

    7. Emilia Pérez

    8. A Real Pain

    9. The Apprentice

    10. Kinds of Kindness

    11. All We Imagine as Light

    12. Challengers

    13. Maria

    14. Dídi

    15. We Live in Time

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Conclave

    2. Queer

    3. Sing Sing

    4. The Piano Lesson

    5. Hit Man

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Dune: Part Two

    7. Nickel Boys

    8. Nightbitch

    9. Joker: Folie à Deux

    10. The Fire Inside

    11. Here

    12. The Actor

    13. The Collaboration

    14. Gladiator II

    15. Small Things like These

    Venice Enriches Poor Things

    The 80th Venice Film Festival has signed off and the Grand Jury’s verdict has honored what’s expected to be a major awards player. From 2017-2020, the four films that took the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) went onto receive Best Picture nominations at the Oscars: The Shape of Water (which won), Roma, Joker, and Nomadland (another victor). 2021 French pic Happening and 2022’s documentary All the Beauty and the Bloodshed bucked the trend.

    Yet I would suspect the correlation between Lion and BP nominee returns in 2023 as Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is the Lion recipient. Based on reaction from Italy, Things established itself as a major contender across many categories and this assists in cementing that. Expect to read lots about this movie in my prediction posts in the weeks and months ahead.

    Venice likes to spread the wealth around. Poor Things didn’t take the directing or screenplay categories or name Emma Stone as Best Actress. Instead that statue went to Cailee Spaeny as Elvis’s young bride Priscilla in Sofia Coppola’s biopic. This does nothing but help Spaeney’s chances in what appears to be an already crowded Actress derby.

    Peter Sarsgard is your Best Actor for Michael Franco’s Memory (he and Jessica Chastain are drawing raves for their work). Its distributor would need to mount a shrewd campaign for Academy voters to take notice.

    The fest’s runner-up trophy (the Grand Jury Prize) went to Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Evil Does Not Exist. Japan recently opted to select Perfect Days from Wim Wenders as their International Feature Film hopeful. Best Screenplay went to El Conde from Pablo Larrain, which will likely be Chile’s best best for IFF inclusion.

    Poor Things was the odds on favorite for the Lion as Venice rolled along. Look for it to roar as the season continues.

    Oscar Predictions: El Conde

    Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain is no stranger to awards attention. His 2012 effort No was an Academy Award nominee for Best Foreign Language Film (now best International Feature Film) while 2016’s Neruda was up in the same race at the Globes. Also in ’16, his English language debut Jackie scored Natalie Portman an Actress nod at the Oscars. Five years later, Kristen Stewart contended in the same category for Spencer.

    At the Venice Film Festival, his latest El Conde (or The Count) has premiered prior to its Netflix debut on September 15th. Set in the director’s native land, it creates an alternate universe where dictator Augusto Pinochet (Jaime Vadell) is a vampire.

    Reviews are mostly positive with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score. However, I wouldn’t say they’re strong enough that it receives the kind of attention granted to Larrain’s aforementioned titles. Chile may select it as their pick for International Feature Film. Making the final five seems like a reach. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

    Spencer Review

    Approximately a decade into their marriage, the union of Diana and Charles is as decayed as the floorboards in her abandoned childhood home and there seems to be nowhere to go but down. That early 90s mindset is where we find Kristen Stewart as the People’s Princess in Spencer from Pablo Larrain. Set at Christmas, it’s an unexpectedly claustrophobic mood piece punctuated by jazz beats and occasional moments of joy (mostly courtesy of young William and Harry). They’re weighed down by Diana’s loveless connection to her husband and in-laws.

    Focused on someone who strained to follow royal patterns, it seems appropriate that Spencer refuses to follow ones in the biopic genre. That makes it unique and sometimes haunting – a bit like the title character. In 1991, Diana is well aware of the Prince’s other relationship. So are the paparazzi and they force curtains to be sewn shut as the Royals holiday at their Norfolk estate. Sewing the Princess’s garments are Maggie (Sally Hawkins), one of the few subjects that Diana can talk to. The same cannot be said for Major Gregory (Timothy Spall), who runs the home with the same military precision as the cooks preparing their meals.

    In her room that she appears not to share with Charles, the reading list is suggestive. A novel about Anne Boleyn (a 16th century Queen executed by her King) leads to Diana having strange visions of the long beheaded branch of the complicated family tree.

    Spencer is not concerned with historical accuracy as much as how history affected the former Miss Spencer’s psyche. She longs to break free as evidenced by an excursion to her former residence. The dialogue between her and Charles (Jack Farthing) or the Queen (Stella Gonet) is curt and strained. There are no pearls of wisdom found in their interactions.

    With a stirring score from Jonny Greenwood and masterful cinematography by Claire Mathon, this is a gorgeously rendered production. Stewart has shown her considerable talents post Twilight before – particularly in Personal Shopper. While she may not closely resemble Diana, her mannerisms do and her vulnerability is often something to marvel at. Those looking for a traditional experience may not gel with Spencer. I found myself not being able to look away.

    ***1/2 (out of four)

    2021 Oscar Predictions: December 7th Edition

    ***Blogger’s Update (12/07): As I was putting the finishing touches on this update, the Don’t Look Up review embargo ended and its RT score as of this writing is 58%. That means it’s falling out in multiple races including Best Picture. Tick Tick Boom! is the beneficiary in the big race. A Hero rises in Original Screenplay.

    For quite some time, I’ve had a nagging feeling that an early year festival favorite might manage to make its way to the ten Best Picture nominees. That trio of pictures is CODA, Flee, and Mass. I have held off putting any in the final predicted ten, but that changes today with CODA. It’s a feel good entry that could get enough support to get in. By doing so, it knocks out Being the Ricardos. The Lucy and Desi tale from Aaron Sorkin had its official review embargo lift today and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 67%. The showbiz theme and Sorkin devotees could still sneak it in, but it drops from Picture and Original Screenplay for now. Nicole Kidman stays in Actress, but falls from 2nd to 4th place.

    Other changes in the main races:

      • Lady Gaga (House of Gucci) is back in the Actress fold and I’ve finally taken out Jennifer Hudson for Respect. 
      • Troy Kotsur gets the CODA bump in Supporting Actor to the detriment of Richard Jenkins (The Humans).
      • Ricardos being out of Original Screenplay helps out C’Mon C’Mon. 
      • In Adapted Screenplay, it’s CODA in and Nightmare Alley out. I am continuing to keep Nightmare in the BP bunch yet it’s tenuous in 10th position.

    You can read all the movement below!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

    6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. CODA (PR: 11) (+3)

    9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 13) (+4)

    10. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-5)

    13. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-4)

    14. A Hero (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. House of Gucci (PR: 15) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Lost Daughter

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)

    8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)

    9. Renaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

    Pablo Larrain, Spencer

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epoyDw8EU9I&t=1s

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-hFLl7mYlw

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)

    5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities: 

    6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 9) (+2)

    8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Mike Faist, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 5) (-3)

    9. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. King Richard (PR: 5) (+2)

    4. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 4) (+2)

    5. A Hero (PR: 9) (+4)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Mass (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Parallel Mothers

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. The Lost Daughter (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. CODA (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Humans (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Drive My Car (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Tick Tick Boom! 

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Encanto (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Vivo (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Drive My Car (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Flee (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

    7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. The Good Boss (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Rescue (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Attica (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Procession (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. The First Wave (PR: 7) (E)

    8. President (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Ascension (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Spencer (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

    10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Cyrano

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

    2. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Last Night in Soho (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Being the Ricardos

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E))

    4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. King Richard (PR: 8) (+3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    House of Gucci

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spencer (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Suicide Squad

    Licorice Pizza

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)

    5. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 7) (E)

    8. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen 

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Spencer (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Belfast (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    House of Gucci 

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Tick Tick Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Time to Die (PR: 6) (E)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)

    9. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. King Richard (PR: 10) (E)

    Dropped Out:

    The Last Duel

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (-3)

    8. Finch (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Free Guy (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. The Suicide Squad (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Nightmare Alley

    And that shakes out to these movies garnering these numbers in nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune

    10 Nominations

    Belfast

    9 Nominations

    West Side Story

    8 Nominations

    The Power of the Dog

    6 Nominations

    King Richard, Nightmare Alley

    5 Nominations

    Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    3 Nominations

    CODA, Flee, House of Gucci, Spencer, Tick Tick Boom!

    2 Nominations

    Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, A Hero, The Lost Daughter

    1 Nomination

    Attica, Being the Ricardos, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World

    2021 Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

    As December dawns, the story of my latest Oscar predictions is West Side Story. Steven Spielberg’s remake of the musical has been in my ten Best Picture nominees for some time. However, the solid buzz emanating from screenings gives it a bump from #8 to #4. Additionally, Spielberg is now in my five for Director and that takes out Guillermo del Toro for Nightmare Alley. 

    Speaking of Alley, we will have a far better idea of its viability later today when it gets its first look from critics and the social embargo is lifted. It’s fair to say that Alley is the final major contender to be unveiled and that makes an even clearer picture will be available for my next round.

    In other developments:

      • While my five Best Actress picks remain the same, Rachel Zegler’s performance in West Side Story jumps from 10th to 6th.
      • The five slot in Best Actor shifts once again from Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon) to Peter Dinklage in Cyrano. 
      • Rita Moreno’s work in West Side Story puts her in the five for the first time (and top ten for that matter). If my prediction comes true, she could join costar Ariana DeBose (who plays the role for which Moreno won her Oscar sixty years ago). It would also make her the oldest nominee in Academy history. Ann Dowd (Mass) falls out of the 5.
      • The wide open Supporting Actor derby sees Jamie Dornan (Belfast) in and Jason Isaacs (Mass) out.
      • King Richard returns to Original Screenplay over C’Mon C’Mon, which goes from 3 estimated nods in my previous post to zero.
      • West Side Story makes the cut for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of The Humans.
      • Flee drops from the #1 spot in Animated Feature with Encanto in. Yet it rises to first in Documentary Feature over The Rescue.

    You can read all the developments below and I’ll be back at it next week!

    Best Picture

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)

    4. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+4)

    5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)

    6. King Richard (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 11) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    11. CODA (PR: 12) (+1)

    12. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 10) (-2)

    13. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

    14. The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)

    15. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Spencer

    Flee

    Mass

    Best Director

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee

    Best Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 10) (+4)

    7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 10) (+2)

    9. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 9) (-1)

    Best Supporting Actress

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)

    5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos

    Best Supporting Actor

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (+3)

    3. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (-3)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)

    10. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: 8) (-2)

    Best Original Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Being the Ricardos (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 4) (E)

    5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities: 

    6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Mass (PR: 7) (E)

    8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. A Hero (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Spencer

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Lost Daughter (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. CODA (PR: 8) (+2)

    7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Humans (PR: 4) (-4)

    9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Last Duel 

    Best Animated Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Encanto (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. Flee (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Vivo (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Charlotte

    Best International Feature Film

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Drive My Car (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Flee (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. The Hand of God (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Titane (PR: 6) (E)

    7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)

    8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Prayers for the Stolen (PR: 9) (E)

    10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Memoria

    Best Documentary Feature

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Flee (PR: 2) (+1)

    2. The Rescue (PR: 1) (-1)

    3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Procession (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Attica (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. The First Wave (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. President (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    Ailey

    Best Cinematography

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (+1)

    3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Spencer (PR: 10) (+3)

    8. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)

    10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    C’Mon C’Mon

    Best Costume Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Cruella (PR: 1) (E)

    2. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (+2)

    3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)

    4. Dune (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. West Side Story (PR: 6) (+1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    The Eyes of Tammy Faye 

    Best Film Editing

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. King Richard (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 10) (+1)

    10. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    Being the Ricardos

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)

    3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Spencer (PR: 4) (+1)

    5. Cruella (PR: 3) (-2)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)

    7. West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)

    8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (E)

    9. Being the Ricardos (PR: 7) (-2)

    10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Green Knight

    Best Original Score

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+2)

    5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (-2)

    8. King Richard (PR: 9) (+1)

    9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)

    10. Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Original Song

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)

    2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)

    3. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (+3)

    5. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: 4) (-2)

    7. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 8) (E)

    9. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 9) (E)

    10. “The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: Not Ranked)

    Dropped Out:

    “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall

    Best Production Design

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)

    3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)

    4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Belfast (PR: 7) (+1)

    7. Cyrano (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Spencer (PR: 6) (-2)

    9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (E)

    10. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (E)

    Best Sound

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)

    4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)

    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: Not Ranked)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (-1)

    7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (-1)

    8. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)

    9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (E)

    10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)

    Dropped Out:

    Tick Tick… Boom!

    The Matrix Resurrections 

    Best Visual Effects

    Predicted Nominees:

    1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)

    2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)

    3. Eternals (PR: 4) (+1)

    4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 3) (-1)

    5. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 5) (E)

    Other Possibilities:

    6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)

    7. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (+1)

    8. Free Guy (PR: 7) (-1)

    9. Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)

    10. Finch (PR: 9) (-1)

    Dropped Out:

    The Suicide Squad

    And that equates to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

    11 Nominations

    Dune

    10 Nominations

    Belfast

    9 Nominations

    West Side Story

    8 Nominations

    The Power of the Dog

    6 Nominations

    Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth

    5 Nominations

    Don’t Look Up, King Richard, Licorice Pizza

    4 Nominations

    Spencer

    3 Nominations

    Being the Ricardos, Flee

    2 Nominations

    Cruella, Cyrano, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, House of Gucci, The Lost Daughter

    1 Nomination

    Belle, Drive My Car, Encanto, Eternals, The French Dispatch, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Humans, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, No Time to Die, Procession, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World