The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from director Alex Kendrick and his brother/cowriter Stephen Kendrick. With Sony Pictures distributing, it makes its way to theaters August 23rd. A spin-off to 2015’s surprise hit War Room, the cast features Cameron Arnett, Priscilla Shirer, Aspen Kennedy, Karen Abercrombie, and T.C. Stallings.
Nearly a decade ago, War Room debuted far beyond expectations at $11.4 million on its way to a $67 million domestic haul. The Kendricks’ follow-up, 2019’s Overcomer, couldn’t match those figures with an $8 million start and $34 million overall.
The lengthy break between Room and Forge could limit its drawing power. I still think high single digits and even $10 million is possible. However, my take puts it just behind fellow newbies Blink Twice and The Crow.
The Forge opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Production company Affirm Films is hoping faith-based viewers make a destination trip to Journey to Bethlehem on November 10th. The live-action musical marks the directorial debut of Adam Anders with a cast including Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Lecrae, and Antonio Banderas.
Slated to open on approximately 1800 screens, Bethlehem is a tricky one to project. Pics catering to a Christian audience can certainly rise above expectations. Yet I suspect this one (if it gets solid word-of-mouth) could play steadily throughout the holiday season and maybe not post an overly impressive opening.
Recent Affirm titles include Big George Foreman, Overcomer, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. None of them opened to over $10 million. I’ll project this doesn’t either and it may not make half of that, but we’ll say how it legs out.
Journey to Bethlehem opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel AngelHasFallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy ReadyorNot debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and LondonHasFallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of GoodBoys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).
Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of WarRoom, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs&Shaw and sixth weekend of TheLionKing.
I am not seeking an impressive gross for ReadyorNot despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
3. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (August16–18)
It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named GoodBoys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.
Hobbs&Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.
TheLionKing took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.
I incorrectly had TheArtofRacingintheRain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.
The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy BlindedbytheLight failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).
Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’dYouGo, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.
The brothers Alex and Stephen Kendrick’s brand of faith based features have had an impressive road to box office success. They hope to continue that trend next weekend with Overcomer. The sports themed drama is Alex’s directorial follow-up to 2015’s WarRoom, which shocked prognosticators with its eventual earnings. Stephen serves as co-writer for the screenplay with Alex in the starring role and costars including Priscilla Shirer and Shari Rigby.
Prior to WarRoom, the Kendricks Fireproof and Courageous both topped $30 million domestically. Room took them to a new level with an $11 million start as it legged out impressively to $67 million.
If Overcomer were to hit double digits, it won’t be as surprising as their previous hit. I’ll say it misses that mark, but it’s certainly in the realm of possibility.
Overcomer opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million
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