Tag: oscars

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple…

76th DGA Awards Recap

How reliable is the Director Guild top prize when it comes to correlating with the Oscar winner? In the previous 75 ceremonies, the DGA victor has matched the Academy’s 67 times. The most recent example of a diversion is 2o19 when Sam Mendes (1917) took DGA while Bong Joon-ho was your Oscar recipient.

Despite that fairly fresh example, the thinking going into last night’s show was that Christopher Nolan could effectively sow up his Oscar if he got the DGA. He did. The fifth time was the charm for the Oppenheimer maker as he had previously been nominated for Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk without a trophy to show for it. The Academy has been less generous as he’s in contention for only the second time (his other nom there was with Dunkirk). With victories now at DGA, Critics Choice, and the Globes (with BAFTA seemingly next) – Nolan appears well on his way to Oscar glory.

I went 3 for 3 on my picks covering feature films. Celine Song (Past Lives) made the podium trip for First-Time Feature Film. There was slightly more intrigue in that contest as Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) provide some competition. While Fiction had a better showing in terms of mentions at the Oscars (5 noms to 2 for Past Lives), Song seemed more probable for this race and that went according to script.

20 Days in Mariupol appears to be the frontrunner for Documentary Feature at the big show. Its maker Mstyslav Chernov is the winner at DGA for Documentaries. It’s worth noting that, unlike Feature Film, there isn’t a strong correlation between DGA/Oscar recipients for Documentary Feature. The last match (ironically) is 2019 with Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert for American Factory. This stands an excellent shot at being the next one.

We are now less than a month away from the Oscars. Keep checking out the blog for all the coverage!

Oscars: The Case of Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actress and that’s Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Lily Gladstone:

After critically appreciated roles in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women and First Cow, Gladstone has been in the awards conversation since Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was announced. Her work as Mollie Kyle in the historical epic won her the Golden Globe for Actress in Drama and the National Board of Review prize. That’s in addition to nominations at Critics Choice and SAG. Gladstone could make history as the first Native-American thespian to emerge victorious in the category.

The Case Against Lily Gladstone:

Any possibility of a sweep ended when Emma Stone took Critics Choice for Poor Things. Then there’s the shocking BAFTA omission. Gladstone did not make the cut for that show. Since 2010, only one Best Actress Oscar winner (Jessica Chastain for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) has missed BAFTA. Killers also underperformed a bit with misses in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

SAG on February 24th could offer a gigantic clue as to whether Gladstone or Stone are the soft frontrunner. That BAFTA snub sticks out. That said, Gladstone is a real contender.

My Case Of posts will continue with Colman Domingo in Rustin…

Oscars: The Case of Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Director quintet and it starts with Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Jonathan Glazer:

The English filmmaker’s fourth feature comes after three acclaimed predecessors: 2001’s Sexy Beast, 2004’s Birth, and 2014’s Under the Skin. The Holocaust drama is the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and had a solid showing with five nominations. He hopes to follow in the footsteps of other directors in recent years who took the prize along with IFF like Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).

The Case Against Jonathan Glazer:

Cuaròn and Joon-ho didn’t have to compete against the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He is the far and away favorite. Glazer managed a BAFTA mention, but didn’t make the cut for Critics Choice, the Globes, or DGA.

The Verdict:

Barring a massive upset, Nolan towers over all competitors.

My Case Of posts will continue with Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actor quintet and it starts with Sterling K. Brown in Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Sterling K. Brown:

An Emmy and Globe winner for his small screen work on This Is Us, Brown breaks through with the Academy as Jeffrey Wright’s estranged brother in the BP contender. Fiction performed at the high end of its range on nomination morning with five and the Academy may wish to honor it somewhere. He made the cut at SAG and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sterling K. Brown:

If voters do honor Fiction somewhere, it’s probably going to be in Adapted Screenplay. Brown did not get in at the Globes or BAFTA. And Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has swept so far and is rightly seen as the favorite. In fact, in a recent interview, Brown himself said he anticipates RDJ taking the gold.

The Verdict:

This is not going to be a walk to the podium for Brown.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jonathan Glazer’s direction in The Zone of Interest…

Oscar Predictions – Bob Marley: One Love

When Reinaldo Marcus Green’s Bob Marley: One Love, the biopic of the reggae icon was slated for early 2024 (it’s out February 14th), it called into question the viability of its awards prospects. After all, most real contenders aren’t seen in the first quarter unless it’s a Sundance screening. That speculation has been confirmed with the review embargo now lifted.

Kingsley Ben-Adir, who likely came close to a Supporting Actor nod in 2020 for One Night in Miami…, plays the title character with Lashana Lynch as wife Rita. The supporting cast includes James Norton, Tosin Cole, Umi Myers, and Anthony Welsh. Green’s previous pic King Richard gave Will Smith a much discussed Best Actor victory.

Don’t look for the Academy to look too much into Love and that could include Ben-Adir’s performance (though I wouldn’t totally discount the possibility). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 36% and even the positive(ish) reviews use descriptions like serviceable and decent. Despite Marley’s beloved music, I wouldn’t look for Sound to be in play (though it would be the only race where it’s somewhat possible). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

76th DGA Awards Winner Predictions

The 76th DGA Awards take place this Saturday and it’s a key indication to which filmmaker will emerge with the Oscar for direction. How much so? 9 out of the previous 10 DGA recipients have taken the Academy’s gold. The only deviation in the last ten years is Sam Mendes (1917) winning DGA while Bong Joon-Ho was victorious on Oscar night.

There is usually a 4 out of 5 match between DGA and Oscar nominees in the big race. 2023 diverted from that. There are just 3 DGA contenders vying for the Academy prize: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are up for DGA while Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) look for Academy love.

Let’s walk through that contest as well as the ones for Documentaries and First-Time Feature Film with predictions for the winner and a runner-up selection.

Feature Film

Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Even if Oppenheimer doesn’t win BP at the Oscars (and that seems unlikely right now), Nolan appears to be in the driver’s seat for the Academy statue. If he doesn’t take DGA, it would frankly be a shocker. Don’t count on it.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

First-Time Feature Film

Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)

This is clearly a showdown between the makers of the two BP nominees in Jefferson and Song. Fiction actually had a stronger showing than Lives from the Academy – 5 nominations to 2. Yet I think Song gets this by a nose.

Predicted Winner: Celine Song, Past Lives

Runner-Up: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Documentaries

Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol, Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia, Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, D. Smith, Kokomo City

Even though it wasn’t nominated for Doc Feature at the Academy Awards, Guggenheim’s work in Still could score the hardware (the editing alone could earn it the win). However, I’ll go with Chernov and his likely Oscar frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

I’ll have reaction up over the weekend!

Oscars: The Case of Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actress quintet and it starts with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Emily Blunt:

Despite an impressive filmography covering dramas, action/adventure pics, family fare, and horror hits – from Sicario and Edge of Tomorrow to A Quiet Place to Mary Poppins Returns and Jungle Cruise – Blunt has somehow never nabbed an Oscar nod until now for the BP frontrunner. That’s despite her six Golden Globes noms for feature films and four SAG mentions. There could be an overdue vibe occurring and Oppenheimer‘s coattails could be large. As the alcoholic wife of the title character, she’s landed recognition in key precursors like the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Emily Blunt:

The Globes and Critics Choice have gone with Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers and she is certainly the favorite. A SAG or BAFTA victory win may be needed to show any strength. Voters may honor her costars Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. in their races and that might feel like enough.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, I had Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) as the runner-up to Randolph. I’d say the spot belongs to Blunt now. However, nothing has happened yet to show that Randolph is vulnerable.

My Case Of Posts will continue with Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction…

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of Annette Bening in Nyad

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at the Actress quintet and it starts with Annette Bening in Nyad. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Grifters (1990, Supporting Actress); American Beauty (1999, Actress), Being Julia (2004, Actress), The Kids Are All Right (2010, Actress)

The Case for Annette Bening:

SAG and Globe nominations preceded this, but Bening’s potential ace in the hole could be the overdue factor. While costar Jodie Foster (up for Supporting Actress) is a two-time Oscar recipient, Bening is 0 for 4.

The Case Against Annette Bening:

She’s swimming upstream for the victory with Nyad. The picture itself is not an awards player beyond its two leads. Bening missed the cut at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Emma Stone (Poor Things) vs. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) appears to be the showdown for the gold.

The Verdict:

The strong likelihood is Bening will be 0 for 5 come March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with our first write-up in Actor. That’s Bradley Cooper in Maestro…