Outcome marks the second directorial feature from Jonah Hill. The dark comedy has premiered on Apple TV this weekend. Keanu Reeves headlines as an actor in hot water with Hill, Cameron Diaz, Matt Bomer, Cary Christopher, David Spade, Laverne Cox, Roy Wood Jr., Susan Lucci, and Martin Scorsese in the eclectic supporting cast.
Critical reaction indicates a sophomore slump for Hill. His behind the camera debut Mid90s (2018) received mostly positive notices. Rotten Tomatoes is 25% with a 37 on Metacritic. The fact that its review embargo didn’t lift until late this week now makes plenty of sense. We can be certain that awards chatter won’t be part of Outcome. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They have been unfolding on the blog over the last few days. I already posted my takes for the acting races and director and they can be accessed here:
That brings us to the biggest race of all – Best Picture. When I did my first projections for BP for the 98th ceremony back in April of 2025, I correctly named 80% of the eventual contenders among the five nominated pics or in other possibilities. Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value were rightly projected to make the cut. Eventual winner One Battle After Another along with Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, and Sinners were listed in other possibilities. The Secret Agent and Train Dreams were not mentioned at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system at Cannes, Telluride, Toronto, and Venice.
This premiere post assumes that one pic already in release has reserved a spot and that’s box office juggernaut Project Hail Mary. It could be joined by another likely mega earner in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. Foreign fare such as All of a Sudden, Fatherland, and Fjord (all premiering at Cannes) are also on my radar.
My initial ranked predictions in the six major races (as well as the screenplay competitions) will be posted soon. In the meantime, here’s the first glimpse at BP.
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST PICTURE AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After premiering last fall at the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals, the latest cinematic version of Hamlet hits stateside venues this weekend. Aneil Karia helms a contemporary retelling of William Shakespeare’s tragedy with Riz Ahmed in the title role. Costars include Morfydd Clark, Joe Alwyn, Sheeba Chaddra, Art Malik, and Timothy Spall.
Critical reaction is varied with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. A 2020 Best Actor nominee for Sound of Metal, Ahmed is getting some solid ink. However, the high likelihood is that awards chatter for this Hamnet is not to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are not quite a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. I already posted my take in the acting fields and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Director. When I did my first forecast in this race for the 98th ceremony, my projections yielded two of the eventual nominees: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). Eventual winner Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) were named in Other Possibilities. I had yet to mention Ryan Coogler (Sinners).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Others will rise up through the festival system where the lineup for Cannes was revealed today.
This premiere post has Christopher Nolan back in the lineup three years after Oppenheimer dominated the 96th Academy Awards. His competitors include newcomers and former nominees like Martin McDonagh and Ryusuke Hamaguchi.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Picture up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR DIRECTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
The prolific Steven Soderbergh’s latest is comedic thriller The Christophers and it’s out in limited fashion this weekend after originally premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Distributed by Neon, Ian McKellen and Michaela Coel (who will also be seen this month in Mother Mary) headline with Jessica Gunning and James Corden providing support.
Reviews are on the fresh side with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. There have been plenty of critically appreciated efforts from the director in the 21st century including last year’s Black Bag. However, you have to go back to 2000 and Soderbergh’s one-two punch of Erin Brockovich and Traffic to find his last major Oscar players. I don’t anticipate that will change with The Christophers. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards are underway!
We are not even a month removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation. These are my opening glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Actress. When I presented my first picks in April of 2025, it produced the most eventual nominees among the quartet of acting races. At this impossibly early stage, I correctly had the eventual winner Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) in the quintet. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You) and Emma Stone (Bugonia) were listed in Other Possibilities. Only Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) was not mentioned.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This inaugural post has Renate Reinsve getting a second nod in a row for Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord and Julianne Moore (No One Cares) contending for the first time since her victory in 2014’s Still Alice. As for Mikey Madison, I’m projecting 2024’s victor in the category for Anora will be up again for The Social Reckoning. Then there’s Sandra Hüller. She’s a threat to get in for Fatherland or Rose (for which she’s already won a prize at the Berlin Film Festival). At press time, I’ve got her making the cut for the latter. That’s in addition to my forecast that Hüller nabs a Supporting Actress nomination for Digger.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are a couple weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I did my first picks for last year’s race, I correctly named one of the eventual five nominees and that was Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. In Other Possibilities, I identified Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. At that early juncture, I did not list the eventual winner Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), or Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
For this premiere post, it’s probable that we already know one member of the quintet and that’s Ryan Gosling in Project Hail Mary. His film is a box office juggernaut and he has to carry much of the running time by himself. If he makes the cut, it would mark his fourth attempt at the gold statue behind lead noms for Half Nelson and La La Land and a supporting nod for Barbie.
He’s not the only star potentially in line for a fourth mention. The same holds true for Tom Cruise in Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu’s Digger. He won an honorary Oscar at the 98th ceremony, but is 0 for 3 in the competitive races are being up in lead for Born on the Fourth of July and Jerry Maguire and in supporting for Magnolia.
We aren’t finished yet talking about thespians getting their fourth nominations. Matt Damon contended for lead in Good Will Hunting and The Martian and a supporting turn in Invictus. His 4th try could come via Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
John Malkovich is probably going lead for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine after two supporting attempts for Places in the Heart and In the Line of Fire. He could make it in for the first time in 33 years.
For my fifth pick, I’m perhaps going out a limb and selecting Robert Aramayo (I Swear) who pulled off a BAFTA upset in Best Actor weeks ago. It comes out stateside in a couple of weeks and could have enough staying power for the BAFTA recipient to stake a claim. I’ll admit this a long shot projection, but hey it’s early right?
The speculation will continue in earnest during the weeks and months ahead, but here’s the first snapshot for Best Actor. Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is ready to launch in theaters over Easter weekend and expected to dominate the charts. The sequel to 2023’s box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back directing Illumination Entertainment’s comedic adventure based on the Nintendo IP. Voiceover contributions come from Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Brie Larson, and Glen Powell.
While audiences gobbled up the 2023 offering and are likely to do the same here, critics were mostly lukewarm. The original rated at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 46 Metacritic. Despite some buzz for its song “Peaches”, Mario wasn’t represented in Original Song or in the Animated Feature category at the 96th Academy Awards.
Reviews are on the downslide for the follow-up with a 44% RT and 37 Meta. We’ve already seen one animated effort (Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers) that probably has a reserved slot in the Animated Feature quintet at the 99th ceremony. That’s not the case with Galaxy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson bring The Drama to multiplexes this weekend with Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) directing. As a couple whose wedding faces unanticipated challenges, the leads are looking for a large female audience over the Easter frame. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoē Winters costar.
The two leads are gearing up for appearances over the next couple of years in their Spider-Man, Dune (they’ll appear in the third feature together), and Batman franchises. Despite various acclaimed performances in non-franchise fare, neither Zendaya or Pattinson have found an awards vehicle.
The Drama is unlikely to be that. While it has 81% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 59 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction that has greeted it. I’m not seeing a scenario where this becomes an Oscar player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
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