Day 4 is here with my initial round of Oscar predictions and we’re at Best Actor. Interestingly, the seventeen actors I have listed as possibilities have never won the award previously. As with the other categories, I am listing my five predicted nominees along with others who could find themselves in the mix. To peruse my other posts covering the Supporting races and Actress, you can find them here:
Another day, another potential Oscar contender to discuss on the blog. This time it’s The Imitation Game from the Weinstein Company, which had its world premiere this weekend at the Telluride Film Festival and opens domestically November 21. The film is a biopic of Alan Turing, known for cracking Nazi codes during World War II and, based on early buzz, the man playing Turing is receiving the most awards talk.
That would be Benedict Cumberbatch, best known to viewers as TV’s “Sherlock” and pictures including Star Trek Into Darkness and 12 Years a Slave. He has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, though it could certainly change based on initial reviews of his work here. Cumberbatch joins a Best Actor race that already seems ultra competitive (just like last year) and I’ll have my first predictions in that race on the blog tomorrow.
The Imitation Game could potentially be a player in the Picture, Director (Morten Tyldum), and Supporting Actress (Keira Knightley) categories. The Weinstein studio is better than any other at generating Oscar buzz for their works. Yet Telluride gave the biggest boost to Cumberbatch and he’s a likely name to be seen when nominations are announced early next year.
Today we’ve arrived at day 3 of my first round of Oscar predictions and that means Best Actress is on deck. If you missed my early calls for the Supporting categories, you can read them here:
We’ll get to Actor, Director, and Picture soon enough – but for now, here’s my list of my current Actress predictions with other possibilities also listed. In my original Actress predictions in 2013, I yielded four of the five eventual nominees, so we’ll see if that holds true here, too!
Let’s get to it!
Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Actress
Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Last year, Jean-Marc Vallee directed two actors to Oscar wins – Matthew McConaughey for Actor and Jared Leto for Supporting Actor in Dallas Buyer’s Club. In 2014, history could repeat itself with the difference being Vallee potentially helming two actresses to Academy glory. The film is Wild and the actresses are Reese Witherspoon and Laura Dern. Wild tells the true story of a woman who hikes the over thousand mile Pacific Coast Trail by herself.
The picture recently premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and it opens domestically December 5. Early reviews are very positive, especially for Witherspoon. As you may recall, she won Best Actress some nine years ago in Walk the Line. Since then, decent roles for Reese have been few and far between and Wild is likely to be considered a comeback movie (something Hollywood loves).
Based on early buzz, it’s hard to imagine Witherspoon not being nominated in the Actress category. Whether or not Wild gets recognized for Picture, Director, or Dern’s lauded work in the Supporting Actress race remains to be seen. Yet the pic’s festival debut has definitely given us our first nearly surefire name for Best Actress.
We’ve arrived at Day #2 of my first Oscar predictions covering the films of 2014. If you missed my post yesterday on Best Supporting Actress, you may find it here:
For round 1 of my predictions, I’m just listing my current five predictions, along with other possibilities in races that are just beginning to take shape. Let’s get to Best Supporting Actor, shall we? I will note that my inaugural 2013 picks done around the same time last year correctly yielded 2 of the 5 eventual nominees.
Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Supporting Actor
As the fall movie season officially gets underway, that means a host of Oscar contenders will be opening between September and December, with many of them screening at upcoming film festivals – including Toronto, Telluride, New York, and Venice. What does that mean? My first round of Oscar predictions has arrived at the blog!
You may say it seems too early to start predicting Oscar nominees? This is true… to a point. At this same time last year, I did my first early predictions. In today’s first category – Supporting Actress – those predictions yielded three out of the five nominees, including Lupita Nyong’o from Twelve Years a Slave, the eventual winner. For followers of my blog, you’ll know that I’ll be consistently refining and updating my predictions until nominations are announced in early 2015.
Today – we begin with Supporting Actress. Tomorrow: Supporting Actor. Sunday: Actress. Monday: Actor. Tuesday: Director. Wednesday: Picture.
We’ll keep it simple for the early predictions. I will just list my round of five that I’m currently predicting along with a subsection of other possible nominees. Enjoy!
Todd’s Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild
Carmen Ejogo, Selma
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Other Possible Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, Interstellar
Jennifer Garner, Men, Women, and Children
Anne Hathaway, Interstellar
Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher
Maya Rudolph, Inherent Vince
Emma Stone, Birdman
Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice
Emily Watson, The Theory of Everything
Naomi Watts, St. Vincent
Oprah Winfrey, Selma
That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back with my early guesstimates for Supporting Actor tomorrow…
Today the Venice Film Festival kicked off and immediately there is major Oscar news to pass along in the form of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman, which opens domestically on October 17th. The film was already considered a potential Academy Awards contender and its premiere more than solidified that status. Early reviews are fantastic.
The advance word today has put me in the unique position of making some rare declarative statements in late August, considered very early in the Oscar season when most contenders have yet to be seen. However, based on the buzz emanating from Italy – I give you these all but guarantees:
Birdman will be nominated for Best Picture
Its director Inarritu will be nominated for Best Director
Its star Michael Keaton will be nominated for Best Actor
The comedy/drama comes from acclaimed director Inarritu, whose other efforts include Amores perros, 21 Grams, and Babel (which was nominated for multiple Oscars in 2006). Besides his directing nomination, expect him and his cowriters to be recognized in the Original Screenplay category.
Birdman focuses on an aging actor best known for playing a superhero… a role Michael Keaton seems tailor made for. And the reviews suggest this is Keaton’s finest role yet. He seems a shoo-in to earn his second Best Actor nomination… some 26 years after his first for Clean and Sober.
As for supporting players, costars Edward Norton and Emma Stone appear to be strong possibilities in the Supporting Actor and Actress races, though their nominations don’t seem quite as assured as Keaton’s. At least not yet. It would mark Norton’s third nod after 1996’s Primal Fear and 1998’s American History X and the first for Stone.
Birdman becomes the third 2014 release that are highly likely to compete in the biggest race of all – Picture. The other two: Boyhood and Foxcatcher and you can read my detailed posts on each of them here:
The summer of 2014 is heading towards its closure and that means school, football, and the Fall Movie Season is ahead of us! As many know, the months of September through December is when studios typically save up their major Oscar contenders and that is certainly the case this year. As for what’s been released pre-fall, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood is the only shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination (it could win too) while Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel currently has a decent shot.
This brings us to my personal top ten most anticipated films being released in the final four months of the year. Some of my choices are Oscar hopefuls while others are not. I’ll get to my first round of inappropriately early Academy Award nomination predictions very soon on the blog. In the meantime, here’s the pics that this blogger is most looking forward to:
10. St. Vincent
Release Date: October 24
This comedy/drama had me at the actor headlining the cast: Bill Murray. He plays an irresponsible war veteran who befriends a young boy. Melissa McCarthy and Naomi Watts costar. If it’s good, expect Oscar buzz for Mr. Murray and Ms. Watts in the Supporting Actress race.
9. The Interview
Release Date: December 25
When Seth Rogen and James Franco have teamed up, it’s led to two hilarious comedies: Pineapple Express and This is the End. Here’s hoping the trend continues where they play two journalists given the task of assassinating Kim Jong-Un.
8. Big Eyes
Release Date: December 25
Tim Burton has seemed to be on autopilot lately with lackluster pics like Alice in Wonderland and Dark Shadows. This could change that in the true life tale of a man (Christoph Waltz) who fraudulently claims credit for his wife’s (Amy Adams) bestselling paintings. Oscar buzz could follow if this one if it delivers.
**No trailer released at press time
7. Birdman
Release Date: October 17
Not a biography of the tattooed Miami Heat player – rather Birdman stars Michael Keaton in what could be a huge comeback role. He plays an actor most known for playing an iconic superhero, which shouldn’t be much of a stretch. Edward Norton, Naomi Watts, Emma Stone, and Zach Galifinakis round out the ensemble and it’s directed by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, who brought us 21 Grams and Babel.
6. Dumb and Dumber To
Release Date: November 14
Whether or not the return of Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) nearly 20 years after the iconic original works is an open question, but you can be damn sure I’ll be in the theater to find out.
5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1
Release Date: November 21
Catching Fire improved upon an already first-rate original in the franchise so I’m pumped to see the series continue. It also serves as one of our final opportunities to see the great Philip Seymour Hoffman.
4. Inherent Vice
Release Date: December 12
Anytime Paul Thomas Anderson makes a film, it’s noteworthy given his filmography includes Boogie Nights, Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, and The Master. This private detective tale stars Joaquin Phoenix, Josh Brolin, Owen Wilson, and Reese Witherspoon.
**No trailer released at press time
3. Foxcatcher
Release Date: November 14
Director Bennett Miller has seen both his features, Capote and Moneyball, earn Best Picture nominations. Advance word is that this will as well. The true story of John du Pont’s (Steve Carell) obsession with a pair of wrestlers (Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo) is generating Academy Award chatter for all three actors.
2. Gone Girl
Release Date: October 3
One of the very best directors working today David Fincher adapts Gillian Flynn’s bestselling murder mystery novel. Ben Affleck, Rosamund Pike (in a role likely to earn Oscar buzz), Tyler Perry, and Neil Patrick Harris star.
1. Interstellar
Christopher Nolan has given us the acclaimed Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. In his latest, recent Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey is tasked with no less than saving the world. Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and (of course) Michael Caine costar. Expect amazing visuals at the very least.
And that’s my top ten, folks. See you at the movies!
It’s not out until Friday but the James Brown biopic Get On Up has so far been earning very solid reviews, especially for its star Chadwick Boseman. The actor became well-known to audiences last year for his portrayal of another real-life figure, Jackie Robinson, in 42. His well-received turn in that part and critical lauds for Up could mean Boseman’s chances for a Best Actor nomination are decent.
Obviously the race is in its early stages though, based on festival buzz, you can bet Steve Carell will earn one of the five spots for Foxcatcher. Everything else is currently uncertain. A win or nomination for an actor playing a musical legend is nothing new. In 2004, Jamie Foxx took the prize playing Ray Charles in Ray. The following year, Reese Witherspoon won Best Actress as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line and Joaquin Phoenix was nominated as Johnny Cash. Other past nominees include Gary Busey in The Buddy Holly Story, Angela Bassett and Laurence Fishburne in the Tina Turner pic What’s Love Got to Do With It?, Diana Ross as Billie Holiday in Lady Sings the Blues, Jessica Lange as Patsy Cline in Sweet Dreams, and a win for Sissy Spacek as Loretta Lynn in Coal Miner’s Daughter.
If the movie turns out to be a huge hit, it might even stand a chance for a Best Picture nomination. However, that currently appears to be a long shot. Boseman’s chances are much greater and his name is one to remember come nomination time next year.
Director Richard Linklater has been a critics darling for over two decades since his acclaimed 1991 debut Slacker. His second picture Dazed and Confused is now considered an American classic. And there’s his critically beloved trilogy of Before Sunrise, Before Sunset, and Before Midnight in addition to Waking Life, School of Rock, Fast Food Nation, and Bernie.
What does his filmography currently have in common? None have received a great deal of attention from the Academy and not one has received a Best Picture or Director nomination. This could potentially change with Linklater’s latest effort Boyhood.
The pic premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and just opened this weekend in limited release. The shooting of Boyhood is unique. Linklater shot the film over a nearly 12 year period and it focuses on the life of a boy (Ellar Coltrane) from childhood to adulthood. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette play his divorced parents.
Critics have been absolutely over the moon on it. Based on 97 reviews, Boyhood stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers calling it the best movie of the year so far. Richard Roeper has referred to it as one of the greatest pictures he’s ever seen.
The question of Boyhood‘s Oscar viability may come down to how much mainstream exposure it receives. However, based on reviews alone, this stands the best chance of any of Linklater’s catalogue to receive a Best Picture and Director nomination, as well as Actor (Coltrane), Supporting Actor (Hawke), and Supporting Actress (Arquette).
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