The last piece of the AFI Film Festival puzzle as it relates to Oscar potential was unveiled Thursday night as Adam McKay’s The Big Short screened. You don’t normally (as in ever before now) see director McKay’s name linked to Academy Awards buzz. We know him best for making Will Ferrell comedies like Anchorman, Talladega Nights, and The Other Guys.
Yet this comedy with some drama mixed in focuses on the financial and housing crises of recent years and features a stellar cast that includes Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo, and Marisa Tomei. And when Paramount pushed it up from a release date in 2016 to Christmas time this year, it was seen by some as a move to put it in the Oscar race.
The verdict? Pretty strong, but reviews haven’t been met with universal acclaim. Some critics have been quite positive though and when it comes to the performances, attention has turned to Carell for Actor and Bale in Supporting Actor (a category he won in 2010 for The Fighter). Even though the Best Actor race is less competitive in 2015 than it’s been in recent year, I still feel Carell is a bit of a long shot for consideration unless the movie really takes off. Same goes for Bale. I would also say its inclusion in Best Picture seems iffy, at best.
As you know, however, these things can change over the next couple of months and The Big Short at least established itself as a potential player in the weeks ahead.
Last night at the AFI Film Festival, critics got their first look at Concussion – the eagerly awaited pic centering on the NFL’s policies regarding brain injuries. The film wasn’t ever really looked at as a major threat in Best Picture or Director (Peter Landesman) and that hasn’t changed. It’s so far received mixed notices and sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. Supporting players like Alec Baldwin, Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Albert Brooks are also unlikely to be factors.
Where Concussion does stand a very real shot at a nod is for its lead actor, Will Smith. Critics have specifically singled him out and it could well mean a third nomination for Big Willie after 2001’s Ali and 2007’s The Pursuit of Happyness. It also helps that this year’s Actor race doesn’t seem quite as competitive compared to the last couple of years. Others in the mix include last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, Michael Fassbender for box office flop Steve Jobs, Matt Damon in box office bonanza The Martian, Michael Caine for Youth, Johnny Depp in Black Mass, and Leonardo DiCaprio in the as yet unseen The Revenant.
Considering that crowd, it’s pretty easy to see Smith finding himself in the fold, especially if Concussion does well at the box office. He may find himself among my predicted nominees for the first time when my third round of predictions hits next week. Concussion arrives in theaters on Christmas.
Just last year, Angelina Jolie’s second directorial feature Unbroken was looked at as a potential major contender in the Picture and Director categories. However, when it screened for critics, its prospects dimmed and it ended up getting nominated in just three races with none of them being the high profile ones.
A year later, her third turn behind the camera is By the Sea and it hasn’t been talked about in the same terms that her last film was in terms of Oscar nods. Now we know why. The marital drama costars Jolie’s real life hubby Brad Pitt and Melanie Laurent and it debuted yesterday at the AFI Film Festival. Critical reaction has not been too kind, with most writers calling it a rather dull vanity project. It stands at just 38% on Rotten Tomatoes currently.
With the talent involved, By the Sea still stood at the outer edges to keep an eye on for awards attention. Now that it has been seen, that wave of possibility has dissipated.
In my ongoing series of Oscar History posts, we arrive at what happened during the year 2010. This was quite a strong year for movies and, unlike other years, I can’t really quibble with the ten pictures that were nominated.
I can, however, differ with what won: Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech. While this was a very solid and entertaining picture, I would have definitely put at least three of the other nominees above it: Black Swan, Inception, and my favorite of the year, The Social Network. Other nominees were 127 Hours, The Fighter, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter’s Bone.
Picture/Director matched up as Tom Hooper’s work in King’s Speech would win over Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), and David O. Russell (The Fighter). I may have found a spot for Christopher Nolan’s visually striking work in Inception.
The love for The King’s Speech continued in Best Actor as Colin Firth was honored for his portrayal as King George VI. He triumphed over Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), and James Franco (127 Hours). It’s worth noting that Franco co-hosted the Oscars that year with Anne Hathaway. It wasn’t too memorable.
While his supporting players were showered with love, Mark Wahlberg was snubbed for his anchoring performance in The Fighter. Others worthy of mention: Leonardo DiCaprio in either Inception or Shutter Island and Robert Duvall for Get Low.
Natalie Portman was a bit of a no-brainer pick for her tour de force work in Black Swan in the Actress race, beating out Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone), and Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine).
I was a little surprised to see Bening’s Kids lead costar Julianne Moore left out. Franco’s co-host Anne Hathaway would’ve been a solid choice for her fine work in Love and Other Drugs. The Oscar voters rarely honor comedy, but they could have here with Emma Stone in her hit Easy A, as well.
Supporting Actor honored Christian Bale as Mark Wahlberg’s drug addicted brother in The Fighter. The other nominees were John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), and Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech).
I might have found room for either Andrew Garfield or Justin Timberlake in The Social Network. And keeping the snubbed comedy theme going, here’s an outside the box mention: Rob Corddry for his hilarious work in Hot Tub Time Machine.
The Fighter also won in Supporting Actress with Melissa Leo, who edged out her co-star Amy Adams. The other nominees: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech, Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, and Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom. The voters could have certainly nominated either Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey for their roles in Black Swan.
And that’s your Oscar History of 2010, my friends. We’ll get to 2011 soon…
When Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs premiered at the Telluride Film Festival in early September, it immediately vaulted itself into contention as a Best Picture front runner. Nearly two months later, the narrative has shifted and it’s mostly due to the picture’s very lackluster box office numbers. It opened nationwide last weekend to a tepid seventh place $7.1 million placing. This weekend, early numbers show it tumbling approximately 65% for a grand total of around $14 million.
If this trend continues (and it probably will), Jobs will be lucky to make $25 million. That would put it barely above the $16 million earned by Jobs in 2013, where Ashton Kutcher played the Apple founder. It’s worth noting that the Kutcher version had no Oscar buzz whatsoever. Therefore, it’s clear that while moviegoers may like Apple’s products, they don’t like watching films about the guy who started the company.
Let there be no confusion: the bad numbers will affect its chances at a gold statue. Most Best Picture winners make decent money and this one isn’t. In 2009, we did see an exception when The Hurt Locker won with just a $17 million domestic take.
I still believe Jobs will find itself in the mix for a nomination and Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet should get nods in Actor and Supporting Actress. Yet my earlier inclination that it could win has dissipated. We are already seeing the spotlight turn to, well, Spotlight – the upcoming journalistic expose about the Catholic Church priest abuse scandal. And there’s still Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant left to screen.
Bottom line: box office numbers do often matter when it comes to Oscar chances and Steve Jobs’s numbers have been going in the wrong dIrection.
We are back at it for my second round of Oscar predictions – October edition. The acting categories have been completed and we’ve arrived at Best Director with Best Picture up next. And from my initial round of estimates nearly two months ago, much has changed. In fact, only two of my five original picks remain: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant and Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs, who have both won this category before with Birdman and Slumdog Millionaire, respectively.
Out of the lineup are Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom Hooper (The Danish Girl), and David O. Russell (Joy). All remain possibilities. Joining the party are Tom McCarthy for Spotlight and Lenny Abrahamson for Room. Their pics have caught on as major festival favorites that are both set to hit screens nationwide in the next couple of weeks. For the fifth slot – there’s plenty of possibilities but I’m going with a bit of an upset name for now: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s a long respected director whose return to the franchise that made him famous over three decades ago was seen as a triumph and I could see his fellow auteurs honoring him.
We shall see how it plays out when my third round arrives in November, but for now:
We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.
It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.
The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.
I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.
As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.
TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)
Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Bradley Cooper, Burnt
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
Will Smith, Concussion
Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!
It’s onto part 3 of my second round of Oscar predictions and Best Actress is on the docket. Between my previous posts covering the Supporting Actor and Actress races, I changed half of those ten predictions from my initial round in late August and early September.
For Actress, only one prediction has changed and that was because Alicia Vikander’s role in The Danish Girl (predicted here weeks ago) has been switched by its studio to Supporting. The four previous predicted women – Cate Blanchett in Carol, Jennifer Lawrence in Joy, Carey Mulligan for Suffragette and Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn remain.
The newcomer could also be the current front runner. Brie Larson’s performance in Room has been earning raves and her nomination is virtually assured. Blanchett is actually competing with herself as her lead role in Truth could get in instead of her work in Carol.
More than any other race, this one has remained the most consistent and we shall see if that remains when my third round of predictions is revealed in November. Tomorrow: Best Actor.
This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.
In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.
Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.
Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.
Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.
Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.
This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
Tonight we begin my second round of Oscar predictions in the six top categories and it begins with Best Supporting Actress. Since my initial round of estimates, the list of possible nominees in this race has been diminished greatly – from 24 names to just 10 that I see as real possibilities.
Three of my original five nominees remain: Jennifer Jason Leigh in Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara in Todd Haynes’s Carol, and Kate Winslet in Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs. We also have the inclusion of Alicia Vikander in Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Originally I predicted her in the Actress race but it’s since become clear that her studio will make their campaign in this category. As for another earlier predicted nominee, Elizabeth Olsen in I Saw the Light – that pic has since been met with mostly poor reviews and just got pushed to 2016.
So who’s our fifth? Names being bandied about include Rachel McAdams in Spotlight, Jane Fonda in Youth, Julie Walters in Brooklyn (who I predicted last time), Elizabeth Banks in Love and Mercy, and Diane Ladd in Joy (there’s not much buzz yet for her, but director David O. Russell’s last three films have resulted in four nominations in this category). Yet for now I’ll go with Joan Allen in Room, the upcoming indie pic that is getting raves from critics and film festival crowds. We’ll see how much changes when my third round comes in November and I’ll have Supporting Actor up tomorrow.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
