Out this weekend, Chris Pratt is a cop on trial for murder with Rebecca Ferguson as his AI judge in Timur Bekmambetov’s sci-fi thriller Mercy. The Amazon MGM offering hopes to be the first 2026 title to debut at #1. Costars include Kali Reis, Annabelle Wallis, Chris Sullivan, and Kylie Rogers.
With Oscar nominations due tomorrow morning, January usually provides some titles that won’t be in contention for the next ceremony. This appears to be no exception with a troubling 21% on Rotten Tomatoes and 35 Metacritic. The only category worth mentioning is Visual Effects where Pratt has had a presence with the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise. Same goes for Ferguson with the two Dune‘s and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning. The subpar reviews indicate that isn’t realistic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we await nominations for the 98th Academy Awards on Thursday, my Oscar Prediction write-ups on contenders for the 99th are beginning to trickle in. This will pick up with the start of the Sundance Film Festival later this week.
Over the weekend, the animated feature Charlie the Wonderdog debuted quietly with Owen Wilson voicing the superhero hound. Shea Wageman directs with a supporting behind the mic cast including Tabitha St. Germain, Sebastian Billingsley-Rodriguez, Anthony Bolognese, and Lindsay Gibson.
Distributor Icon Creative Studio isn’t posting box office numbers at press time and the pic doesn’t even have a Wiki page. Rotten Tomatoes is at just 50%. In other words, if you’re starting to think of possibilities for Animated Feature a year from now, you would be barking up the wrong tree with Charlie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After months of prognosticating and scores of individual prediction posts pontificating on the Oscar chances of various motion pictures, nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be unveiled early Thursday morning.
The window for Academy members to make their picks just ended Friday and it could all be about momentum. Movies like The Secret Agent and Frankenstein seem to have it while it’s possible that It Was Just an Accident and especially mega-sequels Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash have lost it.
My ranked predictions are done. Below you will find my FINAL picks for all feature-length categories along with runner-up and second runner-up selections.
I will note that, last year, I went 9 for 10 in my Best Picture forecast and 4 for 5 in Director. Somewhat shockingly, I managed to go 20 for 20 in the acting derbies and 89 for 105 overall. Here’s how I envision Thursday morning shaking out and you can count on a recap post with how I performed that evening. Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Sirāt
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Second Runner-Up: Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Runner-Up: Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Second Runner-Up: Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Runner-Up: Jesse Plemons, Bugonia
Second Runner-Up: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Second Runner-Up: Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Second Runner-Up: Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
It Was Just an Accident
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Runner-Up: Sorry, Baby
Second Runner-Up: Weapons
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Second Runner-Up: No Other Choice
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Left-Handed Girl
Second Runner-Up: The Voice of Hind Rajab
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: In Your Dreams
Second Runner-Up: Endless Cookie
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Second Runner-Up: Come See Me in the Good Light
BEST CASTING
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: Hedda
Second Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
BEST FILM EDITING
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
Second Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Frankenstein
Kokuho
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Second Runner-Up: The Ugly Stepsister
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Frankenstein
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme
Second Runner-Up: F1
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Runner-Up: “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
Second Runner-Up: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Second Runner-Up: Avatar: Fire and Ash
BEST SOUND
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirāt
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
Second Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Runner-Up: Sinners
Second Runner-Up: The Lost Bus
And that means I’m predicting that these movies will end up with these numbers in terms of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Frankenstein, Hamnet
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
The Secret Agent
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple is the fourth film in the zombie/post-apocalyptic franchise started under Danny Boyle nearly a quarter century ago. Out this weekend, Nia DaCosta (no stranger to the genre via her Candyman reboot) directs with Ralph Fiennes, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Williams, Erin Kellyman, and Chi Lewis-Parry in the cast.
It follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. Impressively it has the best RT score of the quartet at 93% with Metacritic at 80 (also a series high). There was chatter for its predecessor landing a Makeup and Hairstyling nomination for the 98th Academy Awards. However, it did not make the shortlist of ten for contention. Even with slightly stronger critical reaction, Academy voters are unlikely to throw Temple a bone in that race or any other for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It has been nearly a month (!) since my last Oscar predictions on December 17th and a whole lotta activity has happened since. The Critics Choice and Golden Globe Awards aired. SAG Actor noms and BAFTA long lists were unveiled. The Directors and Producers Guild gave us their contenders. And we arrive at my penultimate picks for the 98th Academy Awards. You can expect my final predictions on Sunday or Monday.
So what’s changed since the week before Christmas? Well, you have to read below for that!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sirāt (PR: 13) (E)
14. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
15. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clint Bentley, Train Dreams
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Weapons (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-3)
10. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (E)
9. Pillion (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Sirāt (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The President’s Cake
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-2)
10. DemonSlayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+1)
4. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Seeds (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 10) (E)
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Sirāt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 10) (E)
Bst Cinematography
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sirāt (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. F1 (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Sirāt
No Other Choice
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kokuho (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nuremberg (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Our Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
“Drive” from F1
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Hedda
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Sirāt (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Superman (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Superman (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Bus (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilties:
6. Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Electric State (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another
13 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Sirāt
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kokuho, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, The Lost Bus, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Chloé Zhao looked about as shocked as I imagine most awards pundits (including this one) were when Hamnet took Best Drama at the end of the Golden Globes this evening. It was my runner-up to take the prize, but Sinners was the rather heavy favorite to get it. It provided a surprise ending to a ceremony where Ryan Coogler’s acclaimed horror tale only took two races with Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Original Score. It had it winning four.
One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson did win four GG’s: Picture (Musical or Comedy), Director, Screenplay, and Teyana Taylor in Supporting Actress.I got the first 3 right while I had Amy Madigan (Weapons) in the fourth competition after her Critics Choice Awards victory a week ago. This sets up a more intriguing Supporting Actress showdown.
Same goes for Supporting Actor where Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) is back in the game after a podium walk tonight. That’s a boost he needed after being snubbed by SAG voters earlier this week. He was my pick for the GG.
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) continued winning for Hamnet for Actress (Drama) in what may well be a sweep). Same goes for Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) in Actor (Drama) while Rose Byrne is your Actress victor in Musical or Comedy for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Those were all correct calls on my part. I got it wrong in Actor (Musical or Comedy). I went with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) though The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura was in the envelope. It’s a needed prize for the Brazilian thespian after he too was a SAG omission and failed to make the BAFTA long list. My fourth miss was predicting It Was Just an Accident in Non-English Language Film. The Secret Agent got that one too as it Oscar BP fortunes are looking sturdier.
Overall I went 11/15 as I also was correct selecting KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Film and Original Song (“Golden”).
My biggest post-GG takeaway is that One Battle After Another is still looking like an Academy juggernaut while Sinners hit a significant bump. It is a legit conversation as to whether Hamnet or Sinners is the biggest potential spoiler to a Battle crowning. Honestly it probably won’t matter.
Keep an eye on my blog as I’m about to do an Oscar predictions update!
The 83rd edition of the Golden Globes Awards airs Sunday with Nikki Glaser returning for hosting duties. The Globes have a sometimes spotty history matching with Oscar and it’s a little trickier to make Academy correlations due to the Globes splitting the Picture and lead acting races into Drama and Musical/Comedy.
That said, it would be a surprise if One Battle After Another (extremely like) and Sinners (not guaranteed) didn’t emerge victorious in their respective BP derbies. As for the acting races… that could get interesting. Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up prediction and some analysis.
I’ll have a recap up Sunday night with my thoughts and how I performed.
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Frankenstein, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
I would not be surprised if the Globe voters go with Hamnet, but I’ll project a Battle/Sinners narrative stays intact at the Oscars with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale picking up the gold.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvelle Vague, One Battle After Another
Let’s not overcomplicate this one. Battle is the heavy favorite and anything else would be a shocker.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Marty Supreme (? – I guess)
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Jafar Pahani (It Was Just an Accident), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
As with the Critics Choice Awards, I’m going with PTA over Coogler with a remote shot of a Panahi upset.
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actress – Drama
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
Another easy one to call with Buckley potentially on her way to a seasonal sweep.
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor – Drama
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere)
It’s highly unlikely any of the nominees here will win the Oscar and probably one or two (or at best three) will make the Academy quintet. I’m going with a slight upset as most are going with Moura. I think Sinners love could prevail.
WINNER: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Runner-Up: Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy
Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Byrne is the favorite and I’m going with her though I have a nagging feeling there could be an upset and it could be Hudson, Infiniti, or Stone.
WINNER: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Bugonia
Best Actor – Musical or Comedy
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
This is where the potential Oscar recipients reside this time around (unlike in 2025) and I’ll say Chalamet reigns supreme with DiCaprio and Hawke as spoilers.
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
We will get a big clue as to whether Madigan is a potential sweeper or if Taylor or someone else become the main competition. I’ll say Aunt Gladys’s momentum continues.
WINNER: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
An intriguing race as Elordi shocked all with the CCA win and is certainly a factor now. There’s also the strong possibility of one of the Battle boys getting this. I wouldn’t even discount a Mescal upset. I am (with reservations) going with Skarsgård as Value needs a boost.
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Probably another Battle/Sinners showdown with the former more likely.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Non-English Language Motion Picture
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Agent and Value are MAJOR threats though I’m going Accident.
WINNER: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Animated Motion Picture
Arco, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Zoo 2 could threaten but KPop juggernaut should roll.
WINNER: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Original Score
F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirāt
Sinners is the definite frontrunner with Battle as a possibility.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Another Sinners has a chance though KPop should be… well, golden,
WINNER: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunter, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, Zootopia 2
Sinners should take this silly little category in its third silly little year of existence.
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Is there one? Maybe KPop?
And that means I have these movies winning these numbers of Golden Globes:
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Hamnet, If I Has Legs I’d Kick You, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Weapons
Nominations for the 32nd Actor Awards (the ceremony formerly known as the SAG Awards) were unveiled yesterday. The group’s selections added to an already tricky Oscar season to project (especially with the acting races).
I went 20/30 in my predictions as One Battle After Another and Sinners dominated and actually fared stronger with SAG than I figured. It was also a good day for Frankenstein and a poor one for Sentimental Value, Jay Kelly, and Wicked: For Good.
Let’s walk through each race with the nominees, how I did, and a quick take on where I see the voters going.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 4/5
Frankenstein‘s impressive run continued with an unanticipated nod here. It won out over my Sentimental Value call. Value was completely blanked. As for a winner, I would currently give OBAA the slight edge over Sinners.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
How I Did: 3/5
It’s Hudson (who I should’ve figured the SAG branch would recognize) and Infiniti making the cut instead of Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Sentimental‘s Renate Reinsve. Buckley is unquestionably the favorite.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
How I Did: 4/5
A nice showing for Bugonia with Stone and Plemons in the lead derbies. I went with The Secret Agent‘s Wagner Moura over Plemons. A note that SAG essentially ignored 2025 foreign features. Chalamet is out front though this voting body could surprise and go with DiCaprio or Hawke.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
The big surprise here is A’Zion. Could this give her momentum for Oscar inclusion? At the least, it probably puts her above costar Gwyneth Paltrow as far as contention. A’Zion and Mosaku are in over Emily Blunt (The Smashng Machine) and Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value). The fact that Blunt or lead Dwayne Johnson from Smashing couldn’t make it here might put the final kibosh in their Oscar hopes. I see the SAG win boiling down to Madigan or Taylor.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Miles Caton (Sinners), Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
How I Did: 3/5
Caton is a genuine shocker. He and Mescal are in the quintet over Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). This is where I figured Sandler could materialize and his Oscar chances are fading fast. Skarsgård should still be fine for inclusion though this snub obviously makes me question any shot of emerging victorious. The suddenly resurgent Elordi and del Toro have the best hopes of a podium walk.
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners
How I Did: 3/5
Frankenstein and Battle over Avatar: Fire and Ash and Wicked: For Good. Along with Actress, this is the easiest race to pick via Final Reckoning.
That means these films received these numbers in terms of nominations:
7 Nominations
One Battle After Another
5 Nominations
Sinners
3 Nominatons
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme
2 Nominations
Bugonia
1 Nomination
Blue Moon, F1, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Song Sung Blue, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
The Actor Awards air March 1 and I’ll have reaction up after the festivities…
The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.
Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:
5 Nominations
One Battle After Another
4 Nominations
Sentimental Value
3 Nominations
Sinners, Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
1 Nomination
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons
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