Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.
Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.
Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:
Best Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Weapons
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
The Phoenician Scheme
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate – The Naked Gun
Best Ensemble
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – A House of Dynamite
Best Foreign Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – Left-Handed Girl
Best Animated Film
Arco
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Scarlet
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Editing
A House of Dynamite
F1
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Hair and Makeup
28 Years Later
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hedda
Best Original Score
A House of Dynamite
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Warfare
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ballerina
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Superman
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mickey 17
Best Young Actor/Actress
Everett Blunck, The Plague
Miles Caton, Sinners
Cary Christopher, Weapons
Aidan Delbis, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later
That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:
17 Nominations
Sinners
16 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
2 Nominations
A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow has a runtime to match the length of its title and it might have a shot at a Best Documentary Feature nom at the Oscars. Russian born filmmaker Julia Loktev helms the exploration of mostly female journalists in her native country. Clocking in at 324 minutes, Moscow was first screened at the New York Film Festival in 2024 before playing other fests this year.
As precursors have begun to name their best of’s, visibility has risen for the five-hour (so far) project. It won best doc at the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Circle this week. Recently the Critics’ Choice Documentary voters nominated it for their Best Political Documentary though it lost to The Alabama Solution. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with Metacritic at 94.
The documentary branch at the Academy can be tough to predict. I haven’t had Moscow in my top 10 possibilities for the race, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update this weekend. With precursors and those reviews, discounting it might be a mistake. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nigerian family drama My Father’s Shadow has been playing the festival circuit for months beginning at Cannes and continuing to Toronto. It marks the directorial debut of Akinola Davies Jr. and stars Sope Dirisu with Godwin Chiemerie Egbo and Chibuike Marvellous Egbo as his sons. The United Kingdom has submitted it as the hopeful for Best International Feature Film.
The Brits may have chosen wisely. Shadow is receiving early kudos from other awards bodies. It was given a special award for its first-time filmmaker at Cannes. At the British Independent Film Awards, it was up in 12 categories and won Best Director. And tonight at the Gothams, it went 2 for 2 with Breakthrough Director and a surprise victory for Dirisu for Outstanding Lead Performance.
After a streak in which none of their 21st century submitted features made the cut in the international race, the UK took top honors two years ago for The Zone of Interest. Last year, Santosh made the shortlist but not the final quintet. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 85 Metacritic, Shadow could be gathering buzz at the right time.
Some key caveats as the aforementioned ceremonies aren’t exactly reliable Oscar precursors. There’s also the matter of IFF being quite crowded with more high-profile titles including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident (which also received some Gotham love), The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. However, if Shadow makes this year’s shortlist, it could be a trendy pick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.
The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.
Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.
That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.
Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.
As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.
There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.
This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Palestine 36 is in limited release after playing the festival circuit and it hopes to become the nation’s third submission nominated for Best International Feature Film. The historical epic with ties to current events is from writer/director Annemarie Jacir with a cast including Hiam Abbass, Kamel El Basha, Yasmine Al Massri, Robert Aramayo, Liam Cunningham, and Jeremy Irons.
The film debuted at the Toronto Film Festival where it received a prolonged ovation and traveled to the Tokyo International fest where it took the top prize. With a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the aforementioned resume would point to a possible nomination. It would join 2005’s Paradise Now and 2013’s Omar as Palestine’s other contenders (last year’s From Ground Zero was shortlisted but didn’t make the quintet).
Yet while all reviews are fresh, the 61 Metacritic score is more telling and this is a year where IFF is packed with hopefuls. I have yet to list this in my top 10 for possibilities and I don’t see that changing unless precursors change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
NuestraTierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.
First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.
While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As they frequently do over the Thanksgiving holiday, Disney should reign supreme with an animated effort. In 2025, they’ll do it via Zootopia 2 which follows up the 2016 original. Jared Bush and Byron Howard are back directing. Returning voice work comes from Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Shakira, Idris Elba, Alan Tudyk, Bonnie Hunt, and Jenny Slate. Newcomers to the franchise include Ke Huy Quan, Fortune Feimster, Andy Samberg, David Strathairn, Patrick Warburton, Quinta Brunson, and Danny Trejo.
At the 89th Academy Awards, Zootopia won Best Animated Feature against fellow studio competitor Moana and the acclaimed Kubo and the Two Strings. It opened early in the calendar (March) and maintained frontrunner status throughout the long awards season. Reviews were strong with 98% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic.
The sequel is also generating solid critical reaction with 93% on RT and Metacritic at 73. Those numbers are sturdy enough that I’m confident Zootopia 2 has reserved a spot in the Animated Feature quintet. It also has a shot to be victorious like its predecessor. However, I’ve had it ranked in second position behind the cultural juggernaut that is Netflix’s KPop Demon Hunters. Overcoming that streaming phenomenon could be a tall order. It might be achievable but leaving it in second feels right unless precursors alter the narrative. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Like many eventual award contending documentaries, Cutting Through Rocks premiered at Sundance back in January. Focused on the first Iranian female elected as a councilperson, it marks the debut project from Mohammadreza Eyni and Sara Khaki. Rocks is slated for a December 5th limited domestic bow.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 80 Metacritic score, I’ve had this in and out of my top 10 contenders in Best Documentary Feature. Rocks is one of numerous politically charged genre pics trying to make the final cut. I’ve been keeping it out of the projected quintet though it’s certainly viable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.
That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.
Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.
I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.
In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.
Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)
7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)
8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ne Zha 2
Animal Farm
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tale of Silyan
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)
8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)
3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
7 Nominations
Frankenstein
6 Nominations
Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Ahead of its Friday release, the embargo has lapsed for the eagerly awaited sequel Wicked: For Good and we are seeing just how popular or unpopular it is with critics. Jon M. Chu returns to direct alongside the cast of Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum.
Based on the Broadway phenomenon, Good is expected to generate massive box office dollars. Will it be able to match or exceed the Oscar performance of its predecessor from last year? At the 97th Academy Awards, Wicked picked up 10 nominations – Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. It won for Costume Design and Production Design.
We’ll get into all those in a second, but let’s start with the headline. As one of the final pieces to this grand awards puzzle, Good‘s reviews aren’t as strong as part 1’s. 2024’s original had 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 73 on Metacritic. At the time of publication, RT for Good is 71% with Metacritic at 61.
In short, that makes its prospects murkier in most categories starting with BP. On Sunday when I posted my latest update, I dropped the follow-up from 6th to 8th in that race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it slide further in my next update and I certainly don’t expect it to go up. Anywhere from 8-10 seems reasonable with the possibility that it could miss the cut. A Directing nod for Chu appears out of reach.
Since April when I did my first projections, I’ve had Erivo and Grande getting back to back noms as the Wicked Witch and Glinda the Good. That’s likely to continue though I’m less confident that they’re both slam dunk inclusions. Actress is crowded and Erivo faces tough competition. I think Grande in Supporting Actress is safer. She was probably runner-up for the victory last year when she fell short to Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez. Grande has been ranked 1st for months on this blog and I still believe she could make the podium walk. The mixed overall reaction opens up victory narratives for others, including Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another, Elle Fanning or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value, and maybe even Amy Madigan for Weapons (though I’ve yet to predict her).
As for the tech races, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design are close to shoo-in noms. I’m a little less assured about Sound and Visual Effects and far less so for Film Editing and Original Score.
Then there’s categories where the second helping of Wicked could pop up where Wicked did not. That includes original song. Universal is submitting “The Girl in the Bubble” and “No Place Like Home” for the tune derby. I included both in my quintet on Sunday. Some critical reaction indicates the new songs (in other words – not in the Broadway show) are not standouts. I still think one gets in (“Bubble”) but you never know.
The 98th Academy Awards marks the first year for the Best Casting prize. Had this existed last year, Wicked would have had 11 mentions instead of 10. Like most other races mentioned above, For Good making this list of five (or ten in BP) in tenuous.
Bottom line – the range of nominations for Wicked: For Good could be anywhere from 3 to maybe matching the 10 of Wicked in a best case scenario. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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