Sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris lands in theaters this Friday and Focus Features is hoping for a midsize hit. Based on a 1958 novel by Paul Gallico, Lesley Manville stars a widowed housekeeper who treks to the title city to obtain a Dior dress.
The talented Ms. Manville is no stranger to pictures covering the fashion world. In 2017, she secured an Oscar nod alongside Daniel Day-Lewis in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. While the reviews are complimentary, Paris is highly unlikely to compete for major above the line categories… with the possible exception of Actress. While I wouldn’t count on it, if the Best Actress derby doesn’t produce many surefire contenders in the coming months, Manville could be a factor. I would, however, say it’s far more feasible that she gets a nod at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy competition. BAFTA recognition is also doable.
Where the picture stands the strongest chance is in Costume Design since that’s a significant focus of the storyline. That category should have its share of upcoming hopefuls – Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever immediately come to mind. Don’t be surprised if Paris is in that mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapted from the last novel ever written by Jane Austen, Persuasion streams on Netflix beginning July 15th. British theater vet Carrie Cracknell makes her directorial debut with Dakota Johnson headlining the cast. Costars include Cosmo Jarvis, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Richard E. Grant, and Henry Golding.
While we’ve seen some Austen renderings attract Oscar attention such as Sense and Sensibility and Pride & Prejudice, don’t expect voters to be persuaded here. The pic is generating lackluster reviews and it currently stands at just 32% on Rotten Tomatoes.
For its star, there could be a silver lining as her supporting turn in Cha Cha Real Smooth could be recognized in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a brief theatrical run last month, the animated adventure tale The Sea Beast began its Netflix streaming run today. Chris Williams, a Disney vet who co-directed Big Hero 6 and Moana, helms the project. Actors behind the voices include Karl Urban, Zaris-Angel Hator, Jared Harris, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and Dan Stevens.
Reviews for the monstrous tale are quite positive with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. Its potential inclusion could hinge on whether Netflix mounts a major campaign. In the animation field, they may throw all their chips behind Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (due in December).
The critical reaction is a bonus for Beast. The question is whether it’s still fresh in voters minds a few months from now and if Netflix is reminding them of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After the 2008 Oscars, the Academy decided to expand the number of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. This rule would hold for 2009 and 2010 and then it shifted from anywhere between 5 and 10 (where it was typically 8 or 9). As of 2021, we’re back to a set 10.
Yet what if that had never happened? What if only five nominees from the last decade plus made the cut? My initial writeup where I predicted which five from 2009 would have done so can be found here:
Now we move to 2010. It was a year in which Tom Hooper’s The King’s Speech led the evening with 11 nominations. It would win four – Director, Colin Firth for Best Actor, Original Screenplay, and the big prize Picture. So there’s 20% of our theoretical lineup.
As for the others, let’s take them one by one and I’ll give my thoughts on whether each would’ve made that other 80% of the quintet.
127 Hours
In 2010, Danny Boyle was coming off 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire. That little film that could cleaned up on Oscar night with 8 trophies including Picture. This survival drama with James Franco landed six nods. It won zero, but earned recognition in the Best Pic prerequisites that count like screenplay and editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. This is a tough one. As you’ll see below, there are more than five pics that check important boxes. My hunch is that it would’ve nabbed the fifth slot (though you may feel differently when you read on and I tell you what doesn’t make my cut).
Black Swan
Darren Aronofsky’s intense balletic drama earned Natalie Portman an Actress statue and four other nods: Director, Cinematography, and Film Editing. Certainly the director and editing mentions are notable as is Portman’s victory.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. When Picture and Director were both set at five, they rarely matched. 4 out of 5 directors matching the BP nominations was most common. Here’s an example where I don’t think a match would’ve occurred. The biggest reason? Of the 10 BP nominees, Swan is the only one that didn’t land a screenplay nod. That’s significant.
The Fighter
Mark Wahlberg’s passion project didn’t land him a nod, but it did for three of his costars. Christian Bale took home Supporting Actor while onscreen mother Melissa Leo won Supporting Actress (with Amy Adams also nominated). The direction, screenplay, and editing also were up for a total of 7 nominations.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The wins in the two acting races and the fact that it hit in all the key precursors give the relevant tale of the tape.
Inception
There’s speculation that the reason the Academy switched to 10 nominees is because Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight was omitted from the five in 2008. His follow-up two years later did not miss the expanded cut. It won Oscars for half of its 8 nominations – Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. The other three nods besides Picture were Original Screenplay, Score, and Art Direction.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. And here’s where some readers may disagree. I’m giving 127 Hours an ever so slight edge over this. Why? The 8 nods don’t mean much to me because the bulk of them are in tech races. By the way, The Dark Knight also received 8 nominations. Its misses are what make me skeptical as Nolan didn’t get in for his direction and it also wasn’t up for editing.
The Kids Are All Right
The family drama received acting mentions for Annette Bening and Mark Ruffalo and for its original screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Too many heavy hitters this year and it was probably toward the bottom of the ten that got in.
The Social Network
David Fincher’s saga about the founding of Facebook won three of its 8 nods in Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, and Score.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes… easily. It was probably #2 behind King’s Speech in terms of winning Picture and Director.
Toy Story 3
The Pixar threequel holds the distinction of being the second animated title to make the BP list after Beauty and the Beast. On Oscar night, it won Animated Feature as well as Original Song and received an Adapted Screenplay nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The Academy probably would’ve been OK with it being a slam dunk Animated Feature winner if only five pics were in contention.
True Grit
The Coen Brothers Western remake was behind only King’s Speech in terms of nominations with 10. Beside Picture – you had Director(s), Actor (Jeff Bridges), Supporting Actress (Hailee Steinfeld), Adapted Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Costume Design. It went 0 for 10.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite the batting average, the sheer volume of nods indicates it would have still been included.
Winter’s Bone
This indie drama introduced the Academy and many moviegoers to Jennifer Lawrence. She received a nomination as did her costar John Hawkes in Supporting Actor. Adapted Screenplay was in the mix too.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No but here is a prime example of a smaller film that received attention due to the broadening of the BP base.
So that means if there had been just five Best Picture nominees in 2010, I believe they would have been:
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Fighter
The Social Network
True Grit
I will be back soon with my final five take on 2011!
The Thor entries of the Marvel Cinematic Universe have yet to receive any attention at the Oscars. While that may not seem terribly surprising, it’s important to remember that 12 of the MCU blockbusters have nabbed Visual Effects nods. None have won.
Love and Thunder opens Friday and it’s the fourth adventure centered on Chris Hemworth’s Asgardian former King. Taika Waititi returns to direct after helming 2017’s Ragnarok. It was easily the most acclaimed of the series with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. It didn’t make the cut for its visuals though while fellow MCU entry Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 did. Thunder‘s reviews don’t match its predecessor as it currently stands at 71%.
The MCU should get a 13th VE mention for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. If Ragnarok couldn’t manage the final five for the visuals or Makeup or Hairstyling or Costume Design, I’m skeptical this follow-up will. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.
The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).
However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Till (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)
Mixing satire with crime thriller elements, John Michael McDonagh’s The Forgiven is out in limited fashion this Friday, July 1st. It features the reigning Best Actress Jessica Chastain, who took gold last year as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Her main costar is two-time nominee Ralph Fiennes in addition to Matt Smith, Ismael Kanater, Caleb Landry Jones, Abbey Lee, and Christopher Abbott.
The film first saw exposure last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were decent, but many were far from gushing. That’s reflected in the current 73% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The Forgiven has been flying under the radar since its premiere up north and I don’t see this garnering any awards buzz. Chastain still has a shot for a second nomination in a row with her forthcoming Netflix crime thriller The Good Nurse later this year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And now for a new category on my blog that will update itself yearly after 13 initial posts covering 2009-21. It’s a simple concept. In 2009 – the Academy shifted their rules from a set amount of five Best Picture nominees to 10. That lasted for 2 years. In 2011, the number could fluctuate anywhere from 5-10. In most years, the magic number was 8 or 9 (it was never less than 8). Last year, the big race reverted back to a definite 10.
So… what if it hadn’t? What if 5 nominees was never altered? Well, Oscar speculators like yours truly would have to write posts predicting what would’ve been the final five. So that’s what this is all about.
Naturally it begins with 2009. Before that, something from 2008 might’ve contributed to the shift when The Dark Knight famously missed BP even though it was a critical darling and box office smash. A shift to 10 allowed popcorn favorites and smaller titles to make the cut. And they did.
When it comes to whittling down from 10 (or later 8 or 9) to five, there’s plenty of factors in play. What else did the movie get nominated for or win? Some races are more important than others like Director and Editing or the Screenplay derbies.
Yet it’s far from an exact science. This is educated guesswork based on Oscar history. I’ll walk through each title and give an ultimate Yes or No on whether it makes the five. The first is automatic and that’s whatever won. In 2009 that honor belonged to…
The Hurt Locker
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes because it won Best Picture.
The other 9? That’s where it gets interesting. Let’s take them alphabetically, shall we?
Avatar
When Oscar nominations rolled out near the beginning of 2010, James Cameron’s 3D sensation was basking in the glow of becoming the biggest movie ever. That meant he was breaking his own record from 13 years earlier with Titanic. Cameron was nominated for Director – losing to ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for Locker. The film also didn’t manage a Screenplay nod though Cameron is known more for his technical prowess than writing skills. On the tech side it managed 7 nods and won three (Art Direction, Cinematography, Visual Effects). So…
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Though it lost a number of its nods to Locker, the gargantuan grosses would’ve been enough for it to advance.
The Blind Side
Sandra Bullock’s crowd pleasing football drama made her an Oscar winner. Yet those are the only two nominations it received as it couldn’t make the Adapted Screenplay shortlist. In fact, Avatar and this are the only two BP nominees not to see their scripts mentioned.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. This is a perfect example of a blockbuster getting in due to the expansion that wouldn’t have with just five.
District 9
Neill Blomkamp’s acclaimed sci-fi tale was a surprise summer hit and he’s yet to replicate its mix of audience and critical appreciation. It was nominated in three other races – Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effects, and Film Editing. No wins.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This one is actually close for me. The screenplay and editing nods certainly make it doable. If it had landed Director, I’d probably say yes. A bit of a coin flip, but I’ll land on No.
An Education
The coming-of-age pic scored Carey Mulligan an Actress nod as well as Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
It’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that it could’ve snuck in, but gotta go No. It missed a Golden Globe nod for example and a lot of the focus was on Mulligan’s work.
Inglourious Basterds
Quentin Tarantino’s WWII opus was his return to significant awards attention 15 years following Pulp Fiction. In addition to the Pic nod, he was nominated for his direction and screenplay (losing both to Locker). Other nominations: Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and a Supporting Actor victory for Christoph Waltz.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The 8 nominations are enough to indicate as much.
Precious
The breakthrough drama from Lee Daniels scored five other mentions for Directing, Gabourey Sidibe in Actress, Mo’Nique in Supporting Actress (a victory), Adapted Screenplay (another win), and Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. The screenplay win puts it over the top.
A Serious Man
The Coen Brothers dark comedy received just one other nod for their screenplay with acclaimed lead Michael Stuhlbarg missing the Best Actor cut.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Even with the love for its brotherly makers – No.
Up
As far as I’m concerned, the Pixar masterpiece’s first few minutes should win Best Picture every year. The tearjerker was a rare animated Best Picture contender and it contended for four others. It obviously won Animated Feature as well as Original Score in addition to mentions in Original Screenplay and Sound Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I’m saying No, but I’m not sure of that. I’d probably put it sixth.
Up in the Air
Our other Up contender is Jason Reitman’s workplace dramedy which received six nods. The others were Director, Actor (George Clooney), Supporting Actress (both Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick), and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. While it retrieved no statues, I think it would’ve just edged other hopefuls such as Up or District 9.
So that means if 2009 had just five Best Picture nominees, I believe they would’ve been:
The Hurt Locker (winner)
Avatar
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
Up in the Air
An important note – the movies here match the five Best Director nominees. That’s rare and that will be rare in subsequent postings on years that follow. From 2000-2008 that only occurred twice (2005 and 2008). So don’t get used to it.
I shall return soon with my rumblings and final five for 2010!
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.
As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.
I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.
In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)
25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)
11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Armageddon Time
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Nope
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)
11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)
14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 