The Berlin Film Festival is underway. Last year, it was where critics and audiences first saw Rose Byrne’s Oscar nominated performance for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. There could be another Best Actress contender for the next ceremony via Rose.
Sandra Hüller plays the title role of a 17th century woman masquerading as a man for financial purposes. Marcus Schleinzer directs with a supporting cast including Caro Braun, Marisa Growaldt, Godehard Giese, and Robert Gwisdek. The Austrian/German production is slated for European release this spring while stateside distribution is unsettled (though probably not for long).
Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with much praise going to its star. Hüller was a 2023 nominee for Anatomy of a Fall and she could rise again here. It is also feasible that Austria or Germany might select this as their horse for International Feature Film. If this receives a well-managed campaign, Rose could bloom during the next season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our third contestant in Best Actress and that’s Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue. If you missed my posts covering the first two contenders, you can find them here:
2000 (Supporting Actress) – Almost Famous – lost to Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock
The Case for Kate Hudson:
Hollywood loves a good awards comeback story and this marks Hudson’s second try at Oscar glory after a quarter century and probably almost winning for Almost Famous. For her performance as the real-life Claire from a Neil Diamond tribute band in Craig Brewer’s musical drama, Hudson has picked up precursor noms at SAG Actor, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes.
The Case Against Kate Hudson:
As I mentioned in the write-up for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, you have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last Best Actress winner whose movie managed just one nomination. Hudson missed out at Critics Choice. Blue itself received mixed reviews. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) has swept thus far.
The Verdict:
Hudson had a much stronger chance 25 years ago as Penny Lane than she has today.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant in Best Actor – Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second director to consider is Ryan Coogler for Sinners. If you missed my post covering Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, you can find it here:
He’s the director of the movie with the most nominations (an all-time record of 16) and Sinners is the highest grosser of the 10 movies up for BP. Coogler has taken Hollywood by storm over the past decade with the Creed and Black Panther franchises before this vampire saga gave him his highest acclaim. For his behind the camera work, nods have come at Critics Choice, the Globes, BAFTA, and DGA.
The Case Against Ryan Coogler:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in One Battle has taken the DGA, the Globe, and Critics Choice with BAFTA yet to come. The DGA especially is a heavy indicator of the Oscar winner.
The Verdict:
When Sinners did better than anticipated on nomination morning with that historic haul, it opened up the possibility of victories previously unforeseen. If this takes Best Picture (which is certainly feasible), obviously Coogler could come along for the ride. That said, it’s hard to ignore how PTA has swept through the season.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third entrant for Best Actress and that’s because Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second write-up among the Supporting Actor five is Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. If you missed my post covering Benicio del Toro from One Battle After Another, you can find it here:
The Aussie star of Euphoria and Saltburn (and currently #1 movie Wuthering Heights) entered the awards chat as The Monster in Guillermo del Toro’s passion project. He surprisingly nabbed a trophy at first major precursor Critics Choice and was nominated at the Globes and is awaiting word from BAFTA and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Jacob Elordi:
He lost the Globe to Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. All other nominees in the Academy quintet are veteran thespians and voters might think Elordi’s time could come later.
The Verdict:
At the time of this writing, it is definitely a mystery whether that Critics Choice podium trip was a fluke. It will become more clear if Elordi can manage to take BAFTA or SAG Actor. Both are possible and if takes either or both, his stock on Oscar night goes up.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second director in contention and that’s Ryan Coogler for Sinners…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our second contender among the Supporting Actress nominees is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass for Sentimental Value. If you missed the first write-up covering her costar Elle Fanning, you can peruse it here:
The Norwegian thespian gets her first Oscar nod along with three of her costars for Joachim Trier’s acclaimed family drama. Precursors nods include the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and a win from the National Board of Review. Value did better than expected on nominations morning and the cast could benefit.
The Case Against Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass:
Her cast mate Stellan Skarsgård appears most likely to benefit in terms of victory chances. Lilleass wasn’t nominated at SAG Actor and only 2 of the 31 previous Academy recipients were ignored by SAG. Vote splitting is probable between her and Fanning. Precursors have gone to Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another (Globes) and Amy Madigan for Weapons (Critics Choice).
The Verdict:
A BAFTA win could increase the chances of a Lilleass upset, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second man up in Supporting Actor and that’s Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. A mostly unknown chap that goes by Leonardo DiCaprio is our second contender in Best Actor for One Battle After Another. If you missed my post on Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme, you can peruse it here:
1993 – Supporting Actor (What’s Eating Gilbert Grape) – lost to Tommy Lee Jones for The Fugitive; 2004 – Actor (The Aviator) – lost to Jamie Foxx for Ray; 2006 – Actor (Blood Diamond) – lost to Forest Whitaker from The Last King of Scotland; 2013 – Actor (The Wolf of Wall Street) – lost to Matthew McConaughey from Dallas Buyers Club); 2015 – Actor (The Revenant) – WON); 2019 – Actor (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) – lost to Joaquin Phoenix from Joker
The Case for Leonardo DiCaprio:
Arguably being the biggest movie star on the planet helps. It doesn’t hurt that Battle is the frontrunner or easily co-frontrunner for Best Picture. As former revolutionary turned forgetful dad Bob Ferguson, DiCaprio has racked up all the precursors nominations including the Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA, and SAG Actor.
The Case Against Leonardo DiCaprio:
He is up against arguably the biggest movie star on the planet Timothée Chalamet and his work as Marty Supreme has already won him the Globe and Critics Choice prize. Leo’s overdue narrative ended ten years ago with his Revenant victory.
The Verdict:
A SAG Actor or BAFTA trophy would be needed for DiCaprio to pose any real threat to a Chalamet sweep. He might be #2 among the Best Actor five, but there’s some considerable distance between 1st and 2nd.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second nominee in Supporting Actress and that’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass in Sentimental Value…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. We have arrived at our second contestant in Best Actress and that’s Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. If you missed my post covering Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, you can find it here:
Despite an impressive career mixing comedies (Bridesmaids, Neighbors, Spy), superhero sagas in the X-Men franchise, and horror (the Insidious series), Mary Bronson’s anxiety inducing dramedy marks the Aussie performer’s first big screen awards vehicle. The buzz started after she took the Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance at the Berlin festival. She has landed precursor noms at BAFTA, SAG Actor, Critics Choice, and took home the Golden Globe for lead in a Musical or Comedy.
The Cast Against Rose Byrne:
The recipient for lead actress in a drama at the Globes is Hamnet‘s Jessie Buckley. She also received the Critics Choice prize and is rightfully seen as the frontrunner. Byrne’s inclusion in the actress quintet marks the sole nomination for Legs. You have to go back to 2014 and Julianne Moore (Still Alice) to find the last winner whose movie only nabbed the one mention.
The Verdict:
While she’s yet to miss any precursors and it could be argued that Byrne is #2, Buckley is a formidable favorite.
My Case Of posts will continue will the second Best Actor nominee and that’s Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) is our first director to be considered in that category.
Previous Directing Nominations:
2007: There Will Be Blood (lost to Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men); 2017: Phantom Thread (lost to Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water); 2021: Licorice Pizza (lost to Jane Campion for The Power of the Dog)
The Case for Paul Thomas Anderson:
Plenty! PTA has won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice for his behind the camera work and is nominated at BAFTA. Most notably, he won the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) prize and that correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time (including five cycles in a row). This is Anderson’s fourth try at the direction award, but his contributions as a producer, director, and writer for his three-decade old career mark his 12th, 13th, and 14th overall Academy mentions. He’s yet to get a trophy. Those nods are spread out over the aforementioned Blood, Thread, and Pizza but also Boogie Nights, Magnolia, and Inherent Vice. To say there might be voting members who think he’s overdue is an understatement. Battle is the BP frontrunner or at least shares that title with Sinners.
The Cast Against Paul Thomas Anderson:
Sinners. After receiving a record 16 nominations, the chances for the vampire tale to win BP has increased. If the Academy fills their ballots down the line, Ryan Coogler could be the beneficiary of that love.
The Verdict:
DGA makes PTA the heavy favorite even if Sinners (or something else) takes BP.
My Case Of posts will continue with the second Best Actress contender – Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You…
Sony is looking for Goat to bring in herds of families to multiplexes this weekend. The animated sports comedy from director Tyree Dillihay features an all-star voice cast including Caleb McLaughlin, Gabrielle Union, Aaron Pierre, Nicola Coughlan, David Harbour, Nick Kroll, Jenifer Lewis, Patton Oswalt, Jelly Roll, Jennifer Hudson, Sherry Cola, Eduardo Franco, Andrew Santino, Bobby Lee, and actual all-star Stephen Curry.
While reviews aren’t great, they certainly aren’t baaaaaad (I’m sorry). Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% while Metacritic (as it often is) shows a more telling 59 number. In my estimation, Best Animated Feature could be a stretch. However, we don’t know at this early juncture how strong the race will be. Kris Bowers, an Original Score nominee for The Wild Robot, is behind the music here. Early critical reaction doesn’t indicate he’ll get a second nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As we do every year on the blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP posts are readily available for your perusing pleasure. Our first contender in the quintet of Supporting Actor nominees is Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another.
Previous Acting Nominations:
2000: Supporting Actor (Traffic) – WON; 2003: Supporting Actor (21 Grams) – lost to Tim Robbins for Mystic River
The Case for Benicio del Toro:
As sensei Sergio in Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-nominated pic, del Toro would certainly win if this competition were based on internet memes. Outside of that, his third appearance in this category has been preceded with noms everywhere else including the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG Actor and several wins from regional critics groups. If Another takes BP (where it’s the frontrunner), an acting victory seems likely to come with it. del Toro is coming off an impressive 2025 with his work here and as lead in Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme.
The Case Against Benicio del Toro:
Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) took Critics Choice and Stellan Skasgård (Sentimental Value) got the Globe while we await SAG Actor and BAFTA. He could vote split with his costar Sean Penn. Teyana Taylor, his cast mate contending in Supporting Actress, appears best poised for a Battle acting win.
The Verdict:
Of the four acting derbies, this might be the most unsettled. I still think Benicio needs SAG or BAFTA (that one seems more out of reach) to have a better shot at Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with our first directing nominee and that’s del Toro’s auteur Paul Thomas Anderson…
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