Lawrence Michael Levine’s Black Bear premiered long, long ago in something called January 2020 at the Sundance Film Festival and became available for streaming this weekend. The drama casts Aubrey Plaza as a filmmaker looking for inspiration in dangerous places and many critics are calling it her finest performance to date. Costars include Sarah Gadon and Christopher Abbott.
The Rotten Tomatoes score stands at a sturdy 87%. Plaza is having a nice year as reviewers also praised her supporting work in the recent holiday rom com Happiest Season. That said, I have discussed how competitive Best Actress is numerous times here. Black Bear probably isn’t high profile enough to earn its star her first Oscar nod, but she’s certainly earning her critical bonafides as of late. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
I took a little Turkey Day hiatus from my Oscar estimates, but I’m back at it today with fresh predictions! The major categories have stayed the same (albeit with some ranking movement) with one notable exception. In Best Actress, I have moved both Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead) and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit) out of the top five in favor of Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) and Meryl Streep (The Prom).
We also have changes in both Screenplay races. In Original, Promising Young Woman (which seems to be gaining steam) is elevated over Da 5 Bloods. In Adapted, I’m Thinking of Ending Things gets the 5 spot and replaces News of the World.
You can peruse all the movement below and I’ll be back at it next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
6. The Father (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: 7)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Prom (PR: 14)
14. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 7)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 6)
5. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
5. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Colin Firth, Supernova
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 7)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 2)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 7)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 8)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Sound of Metal (PR: 9)
9. On the Rocks (PR: 8)
10. Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 5)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
10. The Mauritanian (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. Connected (PR: 5)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Time (PR: 4)
3. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
4. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Boys State (PR: 7)
7. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 10)
10. 76 Days (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
MLK/FBI
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 1)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 2)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 7)
5. I’m No Longer Here (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
7. Dear Comrades! (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Collective (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Charlatan (PR: 10)
10. Notturno (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Life Ahead
The Disciple
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
10. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 5)
4. Emma (PR: 3)
5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 4)
7. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
8. News of the World (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
9. Tenet (PR: 8)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 7)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
The Trial of the Chicago 7
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Soul (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Minari (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: 6)
7. “(If Only You Could) Save Me” from Mank (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. Mulan (PR: 2)
5. Emma (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
9. The Prom (PR: 10)
10. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rebecca
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
3. Tenet (PR: 1)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Soul (PR: 3)
8. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Greyhound
Da 5 Bloods
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
2. Tenet (PR: 1)
3. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: 7)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 3)
5. Mulan (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
9. Mank (PR: 10)
10. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
And that equates to the following films garnering these numbers in terms of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
The Father, News of the World, Nomadland
5 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, One Night in Miami
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan, Soul
2 Nominations
Emma, Minari, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, I’m No Longer Here, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, My Little Sister, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Prom, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers, Wonder Woman 1984
HBO Max (which is certainly in the news today for other reasons involving Warner Bros) has teamed with Steven Soderbergh and Meryl Streep for the streaming debut of Let Them All Talk on December 10th. The dramedy casts 21-time Oscar nominee Streep as an author taking a cruise with friends including Candice Bergen and Dianne Wiest. Lucas Hedge and Gemma Chan round out the supporting cast.
The review embargo is up today and based on a dozen write-ups, it actually sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, its Oscar chances seem iffy and that’s probably being generous. While some critics are quite positive, many of their takes do not indicate this will be any sort of awards hopeful. In fact, Streep’s 22nd nod is more likely to be in Netflix’s The Prom, which debuts just one day after Talk.
Soderbergh and Streep had another collaboration in 2019 with The Laundromat. It was long thought of as a potential Academy player until mixed reviews sunk its prospects. With this teaming, it was never really thought of as a contender and that should hold true. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Prior to its December 11th bow on Netflix, the musical romantic comedy The Prom has screened for critics and the general consensus is that it’s a crowd pleaser that should see plenty of streams in a few days. An adaptation of the 2018 Broadway musical, super producer Ryan Murphy handles directorial duties with an impressive cast including Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Keegan-Michael Key, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, and Jo Ellen Pellman.
The current Rotten Tomatoes score sits at 75%. Plenty of reviews praise its feel good vibes and that could be especially welcome in this thing we call 2020. On the other hand, the negative reaction is quite negative and that includes some pretty high profile publications that include EW and The AV Club. Netflix has plenty of major Oscar contenders this year and I wonder how hard they’ll press for inclusion here. While it should nab some Golden Globe nods (including the Musical/Comedy Picture race), the Academy’s love is far less certain.
If audiences sing its praises and it’s a runaway hit, I believe The Prom has an outside shot at Picture. As for its performers, Streep should never be counted out and this would mark her 22nd nomination. I feel her chances in the final five are better than they were a couple weeks back, but I’m currently reluctant having her make the cut. Same goes for Nicole Kidman in Supporting Actress or anyone else.
The best shot could be in down the line categories such as Costume Design, Sound, or one of its songs (though the recently released “Wear Your Crown” with Streep rapping has drawn plenty of eye rolls). Bottom line: don’t discount The Prom‘s ability to make it into the dance in Picture or Actress, but it’ll need lots of goodwill to get there.
Seven and a half years after DreamWorks Animation had a prehistoric animated comedic hit on their hands with the original, The Croods: A New Age hits theaters this Wednesday. It will surely be a different box office story in these COVID times as part 2 will follow with its PVOD unveiling in time for Christmas. The toon is directed by Joel Crawford and returns the vocal stylings of Nicolas Cage, Emma Stone, Ryan Reynolds, Catherine Keener, and Cloris Leachman. New faces behind the mics include Peter Dinklage, Leslie Mann, and Kelly Marie Tran.
The review embargo ended today and the results are mostly positive with a 75% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s in line with the 72% achieved by its predecessor. In 2013, part 1 managed a Best Animated Feature nod. It was defeated by a massive Pixar front runner by the name of Frozen.
2020 could see history repeat itself with the caveman family. One could argue that it’s easier to slide into the final five this year and A New Age looks to do so. Yet there is once again a heavy favorite to win the prize and that is Soul from (you guessed it) Pixar. Other acclaimed titles such as Wolfwalkers and Over the Moon appear to be likely nominees and Pixar has another hopeful with Onward (though after the snub of Frozen II from last year, it’s not a guarantee that one makes it in).
Croods could easily fill the fourth or fifth slot come nomination time, but I wouldn’t chisel its inclusion in pen just yet. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We have new #1’s in three of the four acting derbies in my weekly Oscar prediction updates! Let’s break it down:
The reviews for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom have gone out of their way to praise the work of Chadwick Boseman. Best Actor now appears to be a race between the late performer and Anthony Hopkins in The Father. I have had Hopkins listed in first place for months at this point, but this changes today. That said, this is a competition that could come down to the wire.
In Best Actress, I have kept Viola Davis atop the list. However, while critics have lauded her in the title role of Ma Rainey, Vanessa Kirby’s work in Pieces of a Woman seems to gathering buzz. I thought about putting her in the pole position and we’ll see how this plays out in the coming weeks.
Ironically, the placement of Boseman at #1 in Best Actor drops him from 1st to 6th in Supporting Actor for Da 5 Bloods. This currently puts Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) on top for the first time in a seemingly wide open field. I have also dropped David Strathairn (Nomadland) from the five. Additionally, while I am waiting for Warner Bros to confirm, I am putting Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) back in this field as opposed to lead. So it’s him and Bill Murray (On the Rocks) back in the fold.
Last week, the poor reviews for Hillbilly Elegy caused me to take Glenn Close from #1 to #4. Like Supporting Actor, this race looks like anyone’s for the taking. I am elevating the veteran actress back to 1st as I could envision her overdue factor overtaking the bad critical reaction to the film itself. Also I’ve put Helena Zengel (News of the World) back in over Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari).
There’s also a change in Best Director with Florian Zeller (The Father) in for the first time over Lee Isaac Chung (Minari). Finally, there’s some release date news. Amazon Prime has moved Coming 2 America from December 2020 to March 2021. That takes it out of contention (where it could have played in Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling). And Warner Bros confirmed that Wonder Woman 1984 will receive a Christmas Day HBO Max streaming premiere. I don’t yet have it in the final five, but it could show up in Visual Effects.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Mank (PR: 3)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. Minari (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 8)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 10)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
13. The Midnight Sky (PR: 14)
14. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Cow (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 5)
8. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
3. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
7. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
8. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 8)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 6)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
9. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: 10)
10. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Supporting)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
2. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
5. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 5)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
2. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
4. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
5. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 1)
7. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 8)
8. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 5)
9. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
10. Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
9. Sound of Metal (PR: 10)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
10. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. Connected (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 7)
8. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 10)
10. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 9)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
10. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Another Round (PR: 3)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
3. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m No Longer Here (PR: Not Ranked)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
9. Atlantis (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Charlatan (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
New Order
True Mothers
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
5. Mulan (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. News of the World (PR: 7)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ammonite (PR: 10)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Tenet (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 4)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
7. Mulan (PR: 5)
8. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Coming 2 America
Emma
Ammonite
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. News of the World (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 7)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 5)
9. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 10)
10. Ammonite (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Wear Your Crown” from The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Hear My Voice” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
“Never Break” from Giving Voice
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. News of the World (PR: 8)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
8. Rebecca (PR: 5)
9. Emma (PR: 4)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 2)
2. Mank (PR: 1)
3. Soul (PR: 5)
4. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 4)
8. News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Greyhound (PR: 7)
10. Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. The Invisible Man (PR: 4)
4. Greyhound (PR: 3)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 7)
7. Wonder Woman 1984 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mulan (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Mank (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Dolittle
And that breaks down to the following number of nominations for these pictures:
12 Nominations
Mank
10 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World
6 Nominations
The Father, Nomadland
5 Nominations
One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Connected, Crip Camp, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
Hulu looks to have a holiday hit on their hands when Happiest Season holds its streaming debut on November 25th. The rom com stars Kristen Stewart as her character embarks on a holiday outing with the family of her girlfriend (Mackenzie Davis). Problem is, said girlfriend hasn’t yet come out to said family. Clea DuVall directs with a supporting cast including Alison Brie, Aubrey Plaza, Dan Levy, Victor Garber, and Mary Steenburgen.
The review embargo lifted today and the results indicate a winner. Its Rotten Tomatoes rating stands at 93%. Particular praise has gone to a trio of performances: Stewart, Plaza, and Levy (who’s having quite a year with his multiple Emmys for Schitt’s Creek). When it comes to Oscar, however, I am skeptical that Season has any impact (potentially similar to another acclaimed Hulu comedy Palm Springs).
The Golden Globes, on the other hand, could be a different story. The pic could contend in the Musical/Comedy race, but I especially think Stewart could be recognized in Best Actress. Ms. Stewart has had a number of critically appreciated roles in her post Twilight years. A nod in the Musical/Comedy category would mark her first Globes mention. Oscar may have to wait for another season. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
For Oscar prognosticators, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom has looked to be a major hopeful for some time. Based on the August Wilson play and directed by George C. Wolfe, the 1920s set musical drama hits Netflix in December. The social media reaction embargo lapsed this weekend and confirmed hunches that it will be such a thing in various races.
When I began my weekly prediction posts in late August, it was assumed that Chadwick Boseman would compete for Supporting Actor here. At first, I had him ranked #2. Just days after my first estimates, the actor passed away. He rose up to #1 in Supporting Actor and stayed there until Netflix confirmed that he would vie for Best Actor. Early buzz suggests that he is unquestionably a lead and this sets up a real battle which I’ll get to momentarily. Critics are also calling it his finest performance and his inclusion in the category is a given now.
As for his costar Viola Davis, word of mouth suggests her part is a little smaller than expected. Yet the general consensus is that she’ll still stay in Best Actress. If Netflix chose to make a switch to Supporting, she would probably be the front runner (she won the race four years ago for Fences). However, by staying in the crowded Actress field, I question whether she remains in first place when I update my picks on Friday. The competition could be steep with the likes of Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman).
Back to Boseman. Not withstanding any unseen performances, Best Actor is shaping up to be a real showdown between Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Boseman. This appears bound to play out over the next several months. That said, a development could occur to shift the narrative. In Supporting Actor, Boseman is also expected to contend for Da 5 Bloods. If he gains favorite status in that field, it could help Hopkins remain the anticipated victor. As for Rainey‘s own supporting actors (Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo), the pair are long shots due to that category’s packed nature.
Could Rainey get a Best Picture nomination? Yes, but I think it’s far from guaranteed and I don’t expect Wolfe to make it in the final five for his direction. Adapted Screenplay is also a question mark while tech races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Production Design are surely on the table.
Bottom line: Boseman has absolutely established himself as a threat to posthumously take Best Actor with Hopkins as the significant competitor. Davis looks mostly safe in Actress, but a win is much more questionable. And my Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Back at it again with another round of weekly Oscar predictions and there are changes to be discussed in every major category! We begin with the grand prize – Best Picture. For the third week in a row, we have a new #1 as I’m elevating The Trial of the Chicago 7 to front runner status for the first time. It displaces Nomadland, which falls to 2nd position while Mank goes from 2nd to 3rd.
While Trial gets top billing, I am still placing David Fincher at #1 for director as I believe that could be a bit of a career achievement recognition. As stated last week, I do think Chloe Zhao could be hot on his heels. It does feel a bit strange to have Trial as the Picture favorite while not believing Aaron Sorkin will take Director, but here we are in this strange 2020 Oscar season. Speaking of that race, I now have Lee Isaac Chung for the fast rising Minari over Paul Greengrass for News of the World.
Moving on, the review embargo lifted this week for Hillbilly Elegy and the results weren’t pretty. The Netflix title stands at just 30% on Rotten Tomatoes and that takes it out of my top 15 for Picture and top 10 in Adapted Screenplay. It also hurts the chances of its leads. Amy Adams drops out of the top 5 for Actress and that’s to the benefit of another Netflix entry with Sophia Loren in The Life Ahead. Glenn Close has been listed at #1 in Supporting Actress since I began these posts in late August. This too has changed in a currently wide open Supporting Actress field. She drops from #1 to #4, but the irony is I still think she could win. However, it’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank that vaults to #1 with Olivia Colman (The Father) and Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman) following. There’s another move in Supporting Actress with Yuh-Joun Youn for Minari in over Helena Zengel for News of the World.
In Best Actor, it’s Riz Ahmed back in the final five and that takes out Kingsley Ben-Adir in One Night in Miami. In Supporting Actor, I have David Strathairn (Nomadland) back in the predicted quintet and that drops Bill Murray (On the Rocks) to sixth. And I am starting to buy into the theory that Chadwick Boseman could be victorious in that race for Da 5 Bloods with Anthony Hopkins a seeming favorite in Best Actor for The Father. Boseman is now #1 for supporting.
Finally, it was announced that Supernova will campaign Colin Firth for Best Actor with Stanley Tucci in supporting. They are both listed in the top ten, but I believe it’s Tucci that could potentially see a rise from his #8 spot.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Previous Ranking: 3)
2. Nomadland (PR: 1)
3. Mank (PR: 2)
4. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. The Father (PR: 7)
6. Minari (PR: 8)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. News of the World (PR: 5)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Soul (PR: 12)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. The White Tiger (PR: 14)
14. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
15. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 4)
4. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
5. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 8)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 7)
8. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
7. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
8. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
9. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 9)
10. Colin Firth, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
5. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 6)
7. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 8)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United State vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nicole Kidman, The Prom
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
3. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
7. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
8. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Charles Dance, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. Sound of Metal (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
8. The White Tiger (PR: 9)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Willoughbys (PR: 8)
7. Earwig and the Witch (PR: 10)
8. Connected (PR: 6)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: 7)
10. Bombay Rose (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
4. Time (PR: 7)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Boys State (PR: 5)
8. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 8)
9. 76 Days (PR: 9)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 2)
3. Another Round (PR: 3)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. My Little Sister (PR: 5)
7. Night of the Kings (PR: 7)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 9)
9. Charlatan (PR: Not Ranked)
10. True Mothers (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 4)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 2)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 5)
7. News of the World (PR: 8)
8. Coming 2 America (PR: 6)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Tenet (PR: 7)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: 4)
4. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 2)
5. Mulan (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Soul (PR: 2)
3. The Midnight Sky (PR: 6)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Minari (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
7. Tenet (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
9. Ammonite (PR: 5)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 9)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 2)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: 8)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 9)
10. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 3)
4. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Rebecca (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
8. News of the World (PR: 4)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Tenet (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 4)
4. The Midnight Sky (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 3)
7. Greyhound (PR: 8)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 10)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
5. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 8)
8. Mank (PR: 6)
9. The Call of the Wild (PR: 9)
10. Dolittle (PR: 10)
And that shakes out to these features nabbing the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Nomadland, The Trial of the Chicago 7
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, Minari, News of the World, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
The Midnight Sky, Soul
3 Nominations
The Life Ahead, Mulan
2 Nominations
Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, French Exit, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, New Order, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Time, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
2020’s first precursor to the big show arrived today with the Gotham Awards nominations. The group which honoring independent pictures with budgets of $35 million and under made a little history too. All five contenders for Best Feature are made by female directors: Kitty’s Green The Assistant, Kelly Reichardt’s First Cow, Eliza Hittman’s Never Rarely Sometimes Always, Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland, and Relic from Natalie Erika James.
The tight controls on eligibility (and some major studios didn’t submit their Oscar hopefuls) makes it tricky to prognosticate how these nods compare to what the Academy may do. This has always been the case. That said, in the previous decade, at least one Gotham Feature nominee almost always gets a Best Picture nod. In fact, from 2014 to 2016, the Feature winners (Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight) matched the Oscar winner. Last year, Marriage Story was the sole nominee at Gotham to make the Academy’s cut. In 2018, there were none. Three years ago, both Call Me by Your Name and Get Out got Oscar love.
First Cow led with the most nods and had itself a very good morning. However, its Oscar prospects are iffy while Nomadland looks to be the nominee that will almost certainly get recognition from the Academy (it could even win). The other three nominees are likely non-factors. We did not see another major picture from a female director with One Night in Miami make the final five, though Kingsley Ben-Adir did score a Breakthrough Performance nomination. Also left off: Minari, which seems to be rising in the Oscar chatter.
In the acting races, there were some high profile snubs particularly with Best Actress. Since this category’s inception in 2013, only one winner has matched up with Academy’s selection (Julianne Moore in Still Alice in 2014). In the previous year, none of the five women got Oscar recognition. In every other year, there’s been at least one.
The Gotham Actress hopefuls this year are Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth), Jessie Buckley (I’m Thinking of Ending Things), Carrie Coon (The Nest), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), and Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari). Only McDormand seems destined for the Oscars in lead actress while Youn could show up in Supporting Actress. What is a bit surprising is the number of Gotham eligible performers who appear to be likely Oscar contenders who missed out here. That list includes Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), and Michelle Pfeiffer (French Exit). I wouldn’t read too much into it, but it’s worthy of mention.
In Best Actor, Chadwick Boseman picked up his first posthumous mention for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. He is joined by Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Jude Law (The Nest), John Magaro (First Cow), and Jesse Plemons (I’m Thinking of Ending Things). Some eligible actors with Oscar hopes that missed out include Winston Duke (Nine Days) and Steven Yeun (Minari). The same could be said for Bill Murray in On the Rocks, though he would compete in supporting with the Academy.
Bottom line: while the Gothams aren’t a reliable barometer for what happens months from now, it does give a fun glimpse at what could follow. Today’s actions unsurprisingly solidify Nomadland and could give a slight boost to Cow. My weekly Oscar predictions will be updated tomorrow so stay tuned!
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