One of the more eagerly anticipated titles to premiere at the Toronto Film Festival was James Vanderbilt’s Truth. The pic focuses on the controversy that enveloped CBS newsman Dan Rather and his reporting of President George W. Bush’s National Guard service during the 2004 election. Robert Redford plays Rather with Cate Blanchett playing his producer. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Topher Grace and Elisabeth Moss.
After its festival debut, reviews were mostly positive and it currently sits at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Having said that, Truth probably didn’t break out enough to gain major awards traction. Redford is a long shot to be in the mix for Best Actor and while Blanchett earned strong notices, she’ll most likely be a player in the lead actress category for Carol and not this.
So while Truth didn’t crash and burn like some other titles did at Toronto, it’s chances of real Oscar attention appears limited at best. It comes out October 16.
On the last two occasions that Sandra Bullock has headlined a picture with dramatic elements, it’s resulted in a 2009 Oscar win for The Blind Side and a 2013 nomination for Gravity. Therefore, it is no surprise that her upcoming comedic drama Our Brand Is Crisis (out October 30) was garnering talk of a third nomination.
However, its screening at the Toronto Film Festival has mostly muted that chatter. The film, in which Bullock plays a political operative assigned to help a struggling Bolivian president win reelection, was met with mixed word of mouth at the festival. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at just 44% currently. While her performance has been received well, readers of this blog may be familiar with the recent theme of Best Actress being very crowded this year. That will likely leave Bullock on the outside looking in. In fact, one of the category front runners is Cate Blanchett for Carol, whose winning role in Blue Jasmine probably kept Bullock from a second gold statue. Costars including Billy Bob Thornton and Ann Dowd also shouldn’t be a factor and the picture itself has virtually zero hope in the big race.
Once again, that important festival in Canada has eliminated another Oscar hopeful from the mix. Look for more Oscar Watch posts following the same theme on the blog.
While the Cannes, Venice, and Telluride film festivals were successful in showcasing a number of Oscar hopefuls including Carol, The Danish Girl, Steve Jobs, and Spotlight, among others – this year’s in progress Toronto Film Festival has already premiered several titles that have seen their awards hope dim.
One is Freeheld, a domestic partnership drama starring Julianne Moore, Ellen Page, Steve Carell, and Michael Shannon. Directed by Peter Sollett and based on a 2007 documentary, this was looked at as a potential contender in several categories before it screened up north. Reviews have been very mixed and any chance it had at a Picture nod seems to have fallen by the wayside.
Still, it’s a little naive to completely count Moore in Best Actress out and her performance has received solid notices. Yet as mentioned in previous Oscar watch posts, that race is looking very crowded already with Cate Blanchett in Carol, possibly Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl (though she could be recognized instead in Supporting), Carey Mulligan in Suffragette, Brie Larson in Room, Lily Tomlin in Grandma, Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn, and the as yet unforeseen work of Jennifer Lawrence in Joy. In other words, the competition could crowd Moore out and Academy voters may be OK with that considering she won just last year for her work in Still Alice. She remains a possibility, however, and can’t be totally discounted. As for other performers, Michael Shannon has received positive word of mouth but is a long shot for Supporting Actor.
All in all, Toronto essentially dashed the hopes of Freeheld gaining any major traction in the 2015 awards derby.
There have been Oscar years in the recent past where it could be said that the Best Actress category was fairly weak. As the film festival circuit rolls along, it’s becoming increasingly clear this will not be the case in 2015. Already there is strong momentum going for Carey Mulligan in Suffragette, Cate Blanchett in Carol, Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, and Lily Tomlin in Grandma. It remains to be seen whether Alicia Vikander will be campaigned for in the Actress or Supporting Actress race, but her work in The Danish Girl looks to be recognized either way. And there’s still Jennifer Lawrence’s work in David O. Russell’s Joy to be seen, among others.
We have another contender brought forth by the Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals with Brie Larson’s performance in the indie pic Room. Based on Emma Donoghue’s bestseller, the film casts Larson as a mom who’s trapped with her 5 year old son in a garden shed for a seven year period. Sounds like heady stuff and reviews coming out of the festivals have highlighted Larson’s work as award worthy. The real question is whether the picture is seen and released widely enough to vault the actress into real contention. It certainly seems possible and some critics have noted that Room could break through to audiences.
While reviews are positive and it sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, they’re probably not quite strong enough to put this into the Best Picture race. Some reviewers have taken notice of Joan Allen’s role and she could find herself in the mix for Supporting Actress. There’s even a slight possibility that the young man playing the son, Jacob Tambley, could be a long shot in Supporting Actor (I wouldn’t count on it though).
The real story is Larson. Two years ago, she was the subject of awards buzz for her indie flick Short Term 12, but it never panned out. She’s been highly visible over the years in supporting parts in hits like 21 Jump Street and Trainwreck and Room is beginning to look like her first legit shot at Academy attention.
As you may have noticed on the blog over the past couple of weeks, the array of recent film festivals that includes Toronto, Telluride and Venice has assisted in making the 2015 Oscar race a bit clearer. These fests have vaulted such titles as The Danish Girl, Carol, Steve Jobs, The Martian, Suffragette, Spotlight and Black Mass into the conversation for various nominations. On the flip side, these festivals can also pretty much crush the hopes of other pictures that are screened and receive a negative reaction.
That appears to be the case with I Saw the Light, the biopic of country singer Hank Williams that has been mentioned as an Oscar contender. Then it screened and critical reaction has not been kind. In fact, it currently sits at a troubling 14% on Rotten Tomatoes. While the pic itself has been met negatively by reviewers, the performances are receiving high marks. Tom Hiddleston (known to most as Loki in the Marvel Cinematic Universe) stars as Williams. His work has gotten high marks but the bad reaction to the film itself probably means he won’t make the cut in the Best Actor race. Playing his wife, Elizabeth Olsen has had even better notices from critics. In my initial round of predictions a couple of weeks back, I included her as a nominee for Supporting Actress. She could still make the cut, but I’m far less certain than I was before. Don’t be surprised to see her name left out when I do my second round of predictions.
Bottom line: while these festivals do a great job at showcasing future Academy contenders, they can bury others. I Saw the Light appears to be just such a casualty.
We arrive at yet another entry into the Academy Awards derby from the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals (a theme on the blog this weekend) and it’s Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight. The pic is a journalistic expose on the Catholic Church sex scandals from a few years ago and centers on the Boston Globe reporters who broke the story. After its festival rollout, some critics have compared it to All the President’s Men. High praise indeed.
Spotlight boasts a truly impressive ensemble that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Stanley Tucci and Liev Schreiber. Early reviews suggest it could be a contender in Best Picture, though I didn’t include it in my initial round of predictions from yesterday. It’s certainly one to keep an eye on though when it debuts November 6. It also doesn’t hurt that director McCarthy is well liked in the critical community with indie darlings like The Station Agent and The Visitor to his credit.
As for acting races, most write ups have focused on Michael Keaton and it’s certainly possible he could find himself as a player in Supporting Actor. This may hold especially true considering he had a remarkable comeback role in last year’s Picture winner Birdman. He was nominated for Best Actor, but lost out to Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. The other performers are unlikely to receive much attention.
Once again, as with Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl and Beasts of No Nation, the festival circuit has shined Oscar attention on another picture. As of this weekend, it’s Spotlight.
From the moment the first trailer for Black Mass (out September 18) appeared, you could sense that something special might be brewing with Johnny Depp’s portrayal of notorious Boston gangster Whitey Bulger. Those feelings have been confirmed over the weekend as the picture screened at both the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Critical consensus bore one thing out: Depp’s chilling performance is fantastic. Variety went as far to claim it’s his career best work. This reaction made him as instant major contender in the Best Actor race. When I made my initial predictions three days ago, I left him outside the top five. I’m questioning that call. That said, it remains to be seen who among my projected five would move outside the cut to put Depp in. Both Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl and Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs seem like real contenders. The most vulnerable performer I predicted may be Michael Caine in Youth, though his legendary status will help. The other two I predicted are question marks as their movies have yet to be screened: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Don Cheadle in Miles Ahead. And there’s certainly plenty of time for other actors to emerge. For Depp, after a series of both commercial and critical disappointments (Mortdecai anyone?), the opportunity for Academy voters to vault him into contention could be too enticing to pass up.
As for the film itself, a Best Picture nod or Director nom for Scott Cooper seems far less assured. While its Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%, reviewers are divided as to whether Black Mass is great or merely good. Supporting players Benedict Cumberbatch, Joel Edgerton, and Kevin Bacon may not factor into the mix.
However, this Labor Day weekend made one item very clear: Johnny Depp is a player in this year’s Oscar derby. A big one.
As I’ve made my initial round of Oscar predictions over the past few days on the blog, it seemed somewhat safe to place Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs as a nominee for Best Picture and Director. Same goes for Michael Fassbender in the Actor race as he plays the late tech genius title character and Kate Winslet in Supporting Actress playing a member of Steve’s original MAC team.
Last night, the pic debuted at the Telluride Film Festival and critics are mostly loving what they’re seeing. Fassbender’s work has particularly been singled out and it seems highly unlikely that his name won’t be among the five in Best Actor. Winslet seems like a fairly safe bet as well. In Supporting Actor, Jeff Daniels seems more likely than Seth Rogen but I didn’t include either in my first round of predictions and stick by it (for now).
Several reviewers have noted Jobs as a companion piece to 2010’s The Social Network, David Fincher’s terrific tale of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Some have even said Jobs is better. That bodes extremely well for its chances at Picture and Director nods. It also seems virtually guaranteed that Aaron Sorkin will see his screenplay recognized in Adapted Screenplay. Steve Jobs is out October 9.
As the film festivals continue to roll out, look for several posts in the next few days outlining pictures likely to be in the mix and others that may not be.
We have arrived at the Best Director portion of my incredibly early Oscar predictions for 2015. When I made predictions in this category last year for 2014 pics, it yielded 3 of the five eventual nominees and the other two were listed as other possibilities.
In the Director race, it’s safe to assume that all predicted directors will likely see their pictures nominated as well (my Best Picture prognostications will be up tomorrow). My current field includes three previous winners: Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs (he won in 2008 for Slumdog Millionaire), Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl (he won in 2010 for The King’s Speech), and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant (he won just last year for Birdman). Other previous recipients like Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), Robert Zemeckis (The Walk) and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea) are certainly possible as well.
David O. Russell’s last three projects (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook) have been showered with Oscar love so I’ll include him for December’s Joy. And Carol has been receiving festival raves and that could bode well for Todd Haynes.
Others to keep an eye out for: if The Hateful Eight garners the kind of love that Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained did, Quentin Tarantino could find himself in the mix. And don’t count out George Miller, whose direction in particular was lauded for this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road.
And with that:
TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
David O. Russell, Joy
Other Possibilities:
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Scott Cooper, Black Mass
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Sarah Gavron, Suffragette
Michael Grandage, Genius
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Angelina Jolie, By the Sea
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Jay Roach, Trumbo
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Denis Villeneueve, Sicario
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
If you missed my previous entries covering the acting categories, they’re linked here:
Today we arrive at the final post in my very early Oscar predictions and that means the biggest category of them all: Best Picture. In 2014, when I did my initial round of predictions for 2014 pics, it correctly called 5 of the 8 eventual nominees. A total of 7 of the 8 were mentioned with two being listed in other possibilities.
Obviously the film festival season (Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York, etc…) is just getting underway in which many of the contenders will be screened. It won’t be until late November and early December before the majority of the heavy hitters will have their word of mouth. Yet here’s how I see it currently at this early juncture:
Todd Haynes’s period piece same sex love story Carol premiered to raves at Cannes and appears to be a legit contender at press time.
Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl is another period piece about the first transgender individual and features last year’s Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne. Hooper won Best Director in 2010 for The King’s Speech, which was awarded Best Picture. His last effort, Les Miserables, was also nominated.
David O. Russell has seen his last 3 pics nominated for the big prize – The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle. This December’s Joy with Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, and Bradley Cooper could join the mix.
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu won Best Director last year for Birdman, which won Picture as well. His December release The Revenant with Leonardo DiCaprio is already receiving major buzz.
You can never count out Steven Spielberg and this fall’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies is an obvious choice for consideration.
Same goes for the Danny Boyle directed/Aaron Sorkin scripted biopic Steve Jobs with Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet.
The period piece women’s voting rights tale Suffragette features Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep, and Helena Bonham Carter and if solid reviews materialize, you have to put it in the mix.
Quentin Tarantino has seen his last two blockbusters – Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained – receive nominations so you cannot count out December’s The Hateful Eight.
There are other biopics to consider – Don Cheadle’s Miles Ahead about iconic musician Miles Davis, I Saw the Light with Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, and Bryan Cranston as Trumbo.
As for films already released, it’s totally possible that Pixar’s acclaimed Inside Out could give the studio its second Picture nod (after 2009’s Up). And if some of this autumn’s releases don’t meet expectations, don’t be shocked if the summer blockbuster and critical darling Mad Mad: Fury Road starts getting another look.
One feature that I’m a bit surprised to see hardly mentioned in the Oscar talk: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It’s only the most eagerly anticipated release of the year (in many years actually). If reviews are strong, it could certainly get attention. It remains to be seen though.
As Academy watchers know, anywhere from five to ten movies can be nominated. Ever since the Oscars have gone to that system, nine has been the magic number yet there were eight last year. I’ll go with 8 for now, but that may well fluctuate as future predictions come to the blog. Here we go:
TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Danish Girl
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Revenant
Steve Jobs
Suffragette
Other Possibilities:
Black Mass
Brooklyn
By the Sea
Freeheld
Genius
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
I Saw the Light
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Miles Ahead
Sicario
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Walk
Youth
And there you have it, folks! My first batch of Oscar predictions for the year. Expect a second round in October…
