When I did my Oscar predictions last week prior to the Venice Film Festival kicking off, Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was perched at #1 in four of the eight races that I’m currently projecting. That would be Best Picture, Director, Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Kirsten Dunst was listed in second for Supporting Actress with her real life hubby Jesse Plemons sitting in the same spot in Supporting Actor.
Dog has now screened at the Italian fest and the outlook is a bit cloudier. Some reviews are calling Campion’s early 20th-century set Western a masterpiece. Others are more mixed in their estimations. Some critics are hailing Cumberbatch’s performance as a career best. Others are saying he doesn’t quite pull the villainous role off.
It’s important to note that we are still in the early stages of Dog‘s awards road. By the time it hits theaters on November 17 and Netflix on December 1, the narrative could be clearer. Here’s where I’m at today based on the initial buzz. The pic’s Score (by Jonny Greenwood) and Cinematography (via Ari Wegner) appear to be shoo-ins. Cumberbatch is likely to nab his second Actor recognition after 2014’s The Imitation Game. Dunst is still a contender in Supporting Actress (it would be her first nomination). And I still feel confident that Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay are fairly safe bets.
With Supporting Actor, word-of-mouth suggests I may have been looking at the wrong actor (Plemons) for a spot. Kodi Smit-McPhee appears to have a more realistic shot (though I suppose they could both make it in). I wouldn’t count on it. Look for for Smit-McPhee to vault onto the charts of prognosticators.
Bottom line: The Power of the Dog could be a powerful force come Oscar time. Yet I question whether it remains in first position at any of the spots when I do my next weekly estimates (coming Monday). My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
The Venice Film Festival is officially underway so you better get used to reading my Oscar Predictions posts for quite a few features. The Italian fest opened with a Spanish picture – Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers.
Early word-of-mouth is strong with critics saying this is one of the auteur’s most serious and satisfying offerings. The film stars Penelope Cruz in a tale of the trials and tribulations for two expectant women (the other being the teenaged Milena Smit).
Almodovar is no stranger to Oscar attention. Three of his efforts (1988’s Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, 1999’s All About My Mother, 2019’s Pain and Glory) all received nods in Best International Feature film. Mother won.
As for Cruz, three of her performances have been recognized by the Academy: her supporting turns in 2008’s Vicky Christina Barcelona (which she took gold for) and 2009’s Nine. Her sole lead nod was in 2006’s Volver, which was made by Almodovar.
The question is: will a fourth nomination come for the director and his star? I’m assuming Spain will make Mothers their selection and it stands an excellent chance at inclusion in the foreign field (I highly doubt Best Picture will happen). Original Screenplay is also a major possibility.
With Cruz, it’s murkier. Two years ago, the filmmaker’s lead Antonio Banderas picked up a Best Actor spot for Pain and Glory. My hunch is that Cruz’s opportunity for #4 will be dependent on what follows at Venice, other festivals, and forthcoming pictures in the next four months. Competition is expected to be steep. Jennifer Hudson in the already out Respect could make the cut. And there’s a bunch of hopefuls waiting in the wings, including but certainly not limited to Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).
Bottom line: Parallel Mothers could be expecting some attention at Oscar time, but other competitors will determine its chances beyond the international race. My Oscar Prediction posts for 2021 titles will continue…
Critics don’t seem overly charmed with the latest version of Cinderella, which hits Amazon Prime this weekend after slipping out of a theatrical release. The musical rom com casts singer Camila Cabello in the title role with a supporting cast including Idina Menzel, Minnie Driver, Billy Porter, and Pierce Brosnan. Kay Cannon writes and directs.
The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 45%. However, the would-be princess’s new iteration could at least make a case for some awards chatter. That would be in the category of Costume Design (where critical reaction doesn’t mean a whole lot). The better reviewed Disney live-action retelling from 2015 scored a nod there. However, I would say it’s chances are fairly slim. Cruella already has a reserved spot in all likelihood. And then there’s hopefuls such as The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, West Side Story, Dune, and The Last Duel (to name a handful).
Cinderella‘s shots don’t quite end there. Cabello recently debuted an original song “Million to One” for the soundtrack (which mostly consists of contemporary covers of tracks such as Janet Jackson’s “Rhythm Nation” and Queen’s “Somebody to Love”). This is another race where the level of forthcoming competition could determine its viability.
Bottom line: Cinderella could find its way into two categories, but I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
For those who don’t follow the Oscar game and film festivals like I do (which is understandably most of you), this post looks to be a helpful primer on why such festivals are so important when doing predictions.
The 2021 Venice Film Festival kicks off tomorrow and you can anticipate plenty of Oscar speculation chatter on the blog in the next several days. You may ask – why is this Italian extravaganza so key in determining how this year’s awards landscape may look?
Let’s look at just the past five years as prologue. Of the 43 features nominated for Best Picture from 2016-2020, 31 were originally screened at the various high-profile festivals. There were six from Sundance and four each premiered at Telluride, Toronto and Cannes (with one emanating from the New York Film Festival). Eleven had their start in Venice. That’s right. Essentially one in four. That means that, lately, the average year has seen two to three BP nominees coming from this one event.
Of the last five Best Picture winners, all of them kicked off at a festival. 1 from Telluride (Moonlight). 1 from Toronto (Green Book). 1 from Cannes (Parasite). Two from Venice: The Shape of Water and last year’s Nomadland.
How about the acting derbies? Of the 20 winners in Actor, Actress, and the supporting fields from 2016-2020, only two were performances that did not come from a festival screened film. There’s 1 from Cannes. Three each from Telluride and Toronto. Four from Sundance. And seven from Venice.
This is why the titles hitting Venice in 2021 currently hold lofty positions with prediction makers like myself. It’s why Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog took over House of Gucci (not currently slated for a fest) at the #1 slot in my BP rankings. This explains why I’m keeping a close eye on pics like Dune, The Hand of God, Parallel Mothers, Spencer, and Last Night in Soho. Maybe Spencer won’t win Best Picture, but it could nab Kristen Stewart her first nomination and victory.
Of course, only the screenings themselves will demonstrate the viable contenders. Yet there’s a recent history proving that Venice has become the most important festival of all. Ask the makers of Nomadland and The Shape of Water. Or Emma Stone (La La Land), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), or Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) to name just some.
My coverage of the Venice Film Festival begins tomorrow!
The Venice Film Festival kicks off on Wednesday this week. For this blogger, it means my Oscar speculation will kick into overdrive. You can anticipate a flurry of Oscar Watch posts starting September 1st and continuing throughout the month as the Telluride fest transpires over Labor Day weekend. Toronto is right behind beginning September 9th.
To put it all in perspective, the eventual Best Picture winner has premiered at this trio of festivals more often than not lately. Nomadland (last year’s victor) started off in Venice and won the Golden Lion, which is the equivalent to BP. The same narrative holds true for 2017’s The Shape of Water. 2018’s Green Book debuted at Toronto. 2016’s Moonlight premiered at Telluride. 2015’s Spotlight rolled out at Venice and 2014’s Birdman opened that festival. You get the idea.
So what are the highest profile titles jockeying for position? What are the movies that could become instant hopefuls for the Academy’s attention? I’m glad you asked. Let’s take a look, shall we?
The Power of the Dog
In 1993, director Jane Campion had her last major Oscar contender with The Piano. It won Best Actress for Holly Hunter, Supporting Actress for Anna Paquin, and Original Screenplay for Campion. She became the first female ever to be nominated for Best Director (losing that race and Picture to Steven Spielberg’s Schindler’s List).
Her latest is The Power of the Dog and it will be a mainstay on the festival circuit before its theatrical release in November that’s followed by an early December Netflix bow. Dog is, on paper, the film that prognosticators like me are looking at as an early favorite.
In my previous weekly rankings, I have Dog listed at #1 in Picture, Director, Actor (Cumberbatch), and Adapted Screenplay. Dunst and Plemons are, respectively, ranked second in Supporting Actress and Actor.
We will know quite soon whether it lives up to the hype.
Parallel Mothers
Pedro Almodovar’s latest will open the proceedings on Tuesday. The Spanish language drama stars Penelope Cruz and she could be a factor in what appears to be a potentially crowded Best Actress derby. Original Screenplay and Best International Feature Film could also be races where it contends. Just two years back, the auteur’s previous work Pain and Glory was nominated in the international competition and it nabbed Antonio Banderas a Best Actor nod.
Additionally, Cruz and Banderas star in the comedy Official Competition, which is also premiering here. It may also be one to keep an eye on.
Spencer
Speaking of that Best Actress race which features numerous players, that holds true with Spencer. Pablo Larrain’s biopic about Princess Diana may propel Kristen Stewart to her first nomination. Larrain directed Natalie Portman and she made the final five as Jackie from 2016. Will Stewart break through on the awards front after a series of post Twilight acclaimed roles? The answer is coming.
The Hand of God
Another Netflix property is this Italian drama from Paolo Sorrentino, whose 2013 effort The Great Beauty dominated the foreign language races at the Oscars and Globes. His latest could be another contender and I will be keeping an eye on whether it could branch out to Best Picture (like Roma and Parasite recently did).
The Card Counter
Paul Schrader’s last pic First Reformed received an Original Screenplay nod for its filmmaker. His latest crime drama features Oscar Isaac, Tiffany Haddish, and Willem Dafoe. I haven’t had this featured at all in my weekly predictions, but a splashy Venice rollout could alter that.
Dune
The Card Counter cannot claim the title of being Oscar Isaac’s most breathlessly awaited arrival. That would be Dune from Denis Villeneuve as the sci-fi epic is debuting out of competition. Originally slated for 2020, Dune could be a major awards threat in lots of categories (especially the technical ones). Whether it is Best Picture material will soon be established.
The Lost Daughter
Maggie Gyllenhaal directs Olivia Colman in the Netflix drama slated for late December. Colman has been nominated in two out of the three years at the big show. She won in 2018 for The Favourite in Best Actress and got a mention in supporting last year for The Father.
Last Night in Soho
Edgar Wright psychological horror experience features Thomasin McKenzie and Anya Taylor-Joy (coming off her heralded role on The Queen’s Gambit). The genre is not one usually geared to Oscar love, but you never know.
The Last Duel
Ridley Scott has not one, but two competitors seeking awards attention in 2021. The most obvious is House of Gucci. The other is this historical drama with Jodie Comer (another possibility in Actress), Matt Damon, Adam Driver, and Ben Affleck. We will soon know whether Scott has two pics in the mix.
And that’s just some of what I’m watching out for, folks! Get ready as the Oscar picture should become clearer in the coming days and I’ll be here to cover it…
My weekly Oscar predictions as we close out August have a bit of a Christmas Eve feel to them. Better yet, Film Festival Eve as Venice kicks off next week where cinematic presents will be laid out for consideration. The first 2021 Oscar predictions of September will come with reviews out for major contenders, most notably Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog which currently stands at #1 in Picture and Director.
That’s not all. When I post next Thursday, there should be buzz for Pedro Almodovar’s Parallel Mothers and Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Lost Daughter, Edgar Wright’s Last Night in Soho, Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God, Ridley Scott’s The Last Duel, and Denis Villeneuve’s Dune will follow shortly after that.
Same goes for Pablo Larrain’s Spencer. That could make Best Actress a little clearer due to Kristen Stewart’s work as Princess Diana. Miss Stewart makes her first appearance in my five hopefuls in that race. This is partly due to taking Kirsten Dunst from lead to supporting. It remains to be seen where Dunst ends up. That move and her inclusion in Supporting Actress knocks out Toni Collette in Nightmare Alley.
There are other changes:
In Best Picture, I continue to tinker with the 10 spot. This week, I have vaulted Paolo Sorrentino’s The Hand of God up 12 spots to get in the mix. Falling out is Stephen Karam’s The Humans. The switch-up also puts God in Original Screenplay over A Hero.
We have changes at #1 in both Actor and Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog tops lead and that slides Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) to 2nd. Bradley Cooper returns to first position in supporting for Soggy Bottom over Dog’s Jesse Plemons.
You can peruse all the activity below as Venice looms!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 2)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
7. Dune (PR: 6)
8. West Side Story (PR: 9)
9. CODA (PR: 8)
10. The Hand of God (PR: 22)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Humans (PR: 10)
12. The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
13. Mass (PR: 11)
14. Belfast (PR: 14)
15. A Hero (PR: 12)
16. Flee (PR: 15)
17. Spencer (PR: 17)
18. Last Night in Soho (PR: 19)
19. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
20. The Last Duel (PR: 25)
21. King Richard (PR: 18)
22. Parallel Mothers (PR: 21)
23. Passing (PR: 20)
24. Being the Ricardos (PR: 23)
25. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 13)
12. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 11)
13. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 12)
14. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 10)
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Karam, The Humans
Fran Kranz, Mass
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3)
4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 12)
8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 11)
10. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 13)
13. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 14)
14. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 15)
15. Halle Berry, Bruised (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 11)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 7)
9. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10)
10. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 8)
11. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 12)
12. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 9)
13. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 14)
14. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 13)
15. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead Actress)
3. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 4)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 3)
5. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
7. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6)
8. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 9)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
10. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
11. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 12)
12. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
13. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, Dune (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
Salma Hayek, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 7)
7. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 8)
9. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 9)
11. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 13)
12. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 10)
13. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 12)
14. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Ahead of its Labor Day weekend bow in theaters only, Disney has lifted its review embargo for the 25th Marvel Cinematic Universe pic. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings is garnering positive reaction to the tune of a current 91% Rotten Tomatoes score.
Many reviews point out that it closely follows the MCU formula, but there’s enough to make it highly recommendable. Despite the many kudos, I don’t see anything that indicates a play for Best Picture (where Black Panther still is the studio’s sole nominee in that race).
Instead Shang-Chi‘s possibilities at awards attention should come down to where most MCU titles are viable. That’s in Best Visual Effects. Early buzz suggests it may be strong enough in that space to qualify. However, it will face numerous competitors with three coming from its own multi-billion dollar franchise.
I do think it has a better shot at making the final five than the already out Black Widow. Yet Eternals and Spider-Man: No Way Home loom. It’s worth noting that neither Spider-Man entry from the MCU (Homecoming or Far From Home) made the cut. Eternals could be the biggest in-house competitor. Then we have plenty of other hopefuls. Some have premiered and they include Godzilla vs. Kong, Jungle Cruise, The Green Knight, The Suicide Squad, and Free Guy. Some await like Dune and The Matrix 4.
Bottom line: there’s much to be determined, but Shang-Chi could certainly be the MCU’s nominee in VE. I doubt it will be the fourth picture with Rings in the name to win (as Peter Jackson’s trilogy did). After all, 10 of Marvel’s flicks have nabbed a nod for their visuals. None have won. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
We are a mere two weeks away from the Venice Film Festival and that will be followed up in short order by Telluride and Toronto. It is then that a number of titles mentioned below will receive their first critical reactions. That will translate into whether their Oscar buzz is real or fleeting.
As for this week, there are some changes in the rankings and projections as follows:
We have ourselves a new #1 in Best Picture and Director and that is Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog, supplanting Ridley Scott’s House of Gucci. The film is a mainstay on the upcoming festival circuit and it could well be Netflix’s prime contender.
The 10 spot in Best Picture has a change. I’ve soured a bit on Asghar Farhadi’s A Hero. While I strongly feel it will contend in Best International Feature Film, I’m changing it out for Stephen Karam’s The Humans – the cinematic version of his acclaimed play. It jumps 11 spots to get into the BP derby. The Humans also is now forecasted for Adapted Screenplay to the detriment of CODA.
Amir Jadidi’s performance in A Hero is removed from the top five in Best Actor with Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) taking the slot.
After viewing CODA, I believe Troy Kotsur (playing Marlee Matlin’s randy husband) could find a way into Supporting Actor. I don’t have him in the five, but Kotsur makes his first appearance in the race at #9.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 1)
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4)
5. Soggy Bottom (PR: 5)
6. Dune (PR: 6)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. CODA (PR: 8)
9. West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. The Humans (PR: 21)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 11)
12. A Hero (PR: 10)
13. The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Belfast (PR: 13)
15. Flee (PR: 19)
16. Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 16)
17. Spencer (PR: 15)
18. King Richard (PR: 14)
19. Last Night in Soho (PR: 22)
20. Passing (PR: 20)
21. Parallel Mothers (PR: 17)
22. The Hand of God (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Being the Ricardos (PR: 24)
24. Cyrano (PR: 18)
25. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blue Bayou
In the Heights
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
2. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3)
3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4)
4. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
5. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (PR: 8)
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 9)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 10)
12. Sian Heder, CODA (PR: 11)
13. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch (PR: 12)
14. Stephen Karam, The Humans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fran Kranz, Mass (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers
Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5)
4. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7)
8. Emilia Jones, CODA (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9)
10. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World (PR: 12)
11. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
12. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 11)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (PR: 14)
14. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 13)
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Halle Berry, Bruised
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6)
8. Amir Jadidi, A Hero (PR: 5)
9. Steven Yeun, The Humans (PR: 12)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 11)
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 9)
12. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 14)
13. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 10)
14. Adam Driver, Annette (PR: 13)
15. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom (PR: 15)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 1)
2. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 4)
3. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 2)
4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 3)
5. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: 12)
7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 7)
8. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8)
9. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 6)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog (PR: 9)
11. Olga Merediz, In the Heights (PR: 11)
12. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 13)
13. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 10)
14. Nina Arianda, Being the Ricardos (PR: 14)
15. Salma Hayek, House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4)
5. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9)
7. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, Nightmare Alley (PR: 10)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall (PR: 11)
11. Bradley Whitford, Tick Tick… Boom! (PR: 12)
12. Reed Birney, Mass (PR: 8)
13. Simon Helberg, Annette (PR: 15)
14. David Alvarez, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Back in January at the Sundance Film Festival, Flee was a home run with critics. The film has the very rare distinction of fitting multiple categories – it’s animated. It’s a documentary. And it comes from the nation of Denmark.
Directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen (and executive produced by last year’s Best Actor nominee Riz Ahmed), Flee tells the true life story of an Afghan refugee’s trials and tribulations. Based on nearly 50 reviews, it holds a pure 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
Flee is unique in that it could contend in all four races at the Academy Awards honoring feature-length efforts: Best Picture, International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. The recent news coverage from Afghanistan could contribute to its urgent nature.
Bowing in theaters on December 3rd via Neon, the acclaim for Flee should get this in at least half of the categories where it is eligible. Just last year, Collective managed to do so in International Feature Film and Documentary. It remains to be seen whether this is the Danish pick for the former competition. My hunch is, if so, it could show up in both races.
Animated Feature is also a strong possibility though I’ve written before about how packed it could be. Other viable hopefuls include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Luca, Vivo, and the forthcoming Encanto and Wendell and Wild.
Best Picture is obviously the toughest one to breach, but I wouldn’t count it out. I could even envision a narrative developing rooting Flee on for inclusion in the entire quartet.
Bottom line: expect to see Flee in the mix in more than one category next year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Let us begin with what might be the obvious disclaimer: I did not think I would be writing an Oscar Watch post on PAW Patrol: The Movie. Opening Friday, the cinematic rendering of Nickelodeon’s popular kids show was simply not on my radar screen for potential contenders in Best Animated Feature.
I’m not losing my marbles here. You won’t see me pontificating about whether Kim Kardashian gets a Supporting Actress nod for her voice work. Yet the fact of the matter is this… Patrol stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes at the moment. Some caveats: this is based on 13 reviews thus far. And a lot of the critical reaction isn’t exactly claiming this is a masterpiece. The general consensus is that fans of the show will lap it up and their attending adults might even be reasonably entertained.
So could this actually land a nomination? Well, it’s possible but still doubtful. As I’ve discussed before in my previous OW posts, this particularly race is already getting crowded. The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Luca, Vivo, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Flee (not out yet but recipient of Sundance raves) are all more likely contenders. And that’s five. Additionally, Encanto and Wendell and Wild are still to come and, on paper, should be serious hopefuls.
Bottom line: Tomatoes meter notwithstanding, don’t count on this getting in. However, it is certainly more of a possibility than anyone could have envisioned just days ago. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
