The Case Of posts for Supporting Actress hopefuls reaches its end with Yuh-jung Youn for Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari. If you missed the previous four posts, they’re available here:
Momentum. Already a legendary actress in South Korea, the 73-year-old has found American success with her role in Minari, which picked up a sturdy 6 nods on nomination morning. Youn has won the latest precursors to pick up steam with the SAG Awards and BAFTA.
The Case Against Yuh-jung Youn:
She has not fared as well with other precursors. Youn wasn’t nominated at the Golden Globes and lost the Critics Choice prize to Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), who could be her stiffest competition. There’s also still the chance that the Academy will finally give Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) her overdue trophy.
The Verdict
There was certainly a time where this acting race seemed like the biggest tossup. That has certainly been replaced by Best Actress. While I believe this category could go three different ways, Youn has emerged as the most likely candidate.
My Case Of posts will conclude with Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah…
My Case Of posts in the Best Actor field at the Oscars reaches its end with Steven Yeun in Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari. If you didn’t catch the first four posts, you can find them here:
The first Asian-American thespian to receive a Best Actor nomination, Yeun’s career has been on a hot streak lately and that includes a critically heralded supporting performance in 2018’s Burning. That work prompted some Oscar chatter that never came to fruition. Minari performed as well as expected (maybe even a bit better) with 6 nods including Yeun and his costar Yuh-jung Youn in Supporting Actress. He was also given nominations at the Critics Choice Awards and SAG Awards.
The Case Against Steven Yeun
Yeun was ignored at the Golden Globes. Best Actor appears to be a two-person competition between Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Yeun has yet to log a significant victory in the precursors.
The Verdict
Minari‘s best chance at a win in the major categories lies with Youn and not Yeun.
My Case Of posts will continue with Yeun’s costar Yuh-jung Youn…
Carey Mulligan’s performance in Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman wraps up my Case Of posts for the five Best Actress contenders. If you missed the first four, they can be read here:
Earning her second nomination following 2009’s An Education, Mulligan’s work here was part of Promising‘s five nominations. She’s managed nods in all the major precursors (with the surprising exception of BAFTA) and won the Critics Choice Award.
The Case Against Carey Mulligan
I predicted Mulligan to take the Golden Globe and she lost to Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday). I predicted her for the SAG Award and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) took the prize. The wide open Best Actress race is hard to pin down.
The Verdict
Mulligan absolutely could win next week, but so could do Davis, Day, or McDormand. I’ll be going back and forth on this one until I make my final predictions on Wednesday.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Yeun in Minari…
My Case Of posts in the Best Director category reaches its fifth and final hopeful with Chloe Zhao for Nomadland. If you missed the previous four, you can find them here:
Nomadland is absolutely the frontrunner to win Best Picture and oftentimes it matches with director (though not quite as much in recent years). Even if something upsets Nomadland in the big race, Zhao has made it a clean sweep at the precursors and that includes BAFTA, DGA, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and many other regional critics group awards. Zhao (who will next take on the MCU’s Eternals) will also make some history by becoming the second female to take the gold after Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) in 2009.
The Case Against Chloe Zhao
To be blunt – there really isn’t one. I suppose only if the Academy doesn’t embrace Nomadland like other awards bodies have and that appears unlikely.
The Verdict
Some of the major categories have some suspense around them. This one doesn’t. Zhao appears primed for victory.
My Case Of posts will continue with Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman…
My Case Of posts in the Supporting Actor category has reached Paul Raci in Sound of Metal. If you missed the ones focused on Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), and Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami), you can find them here:
It’s a great narrative. The 73-year-old character actor has gone from unknown to critical darling as Riz Ahmed’s mentor in Metal. Critics groups have honored him with several wins and he received a nomination at the Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Paul Raci
Raci did not, however, manage to nab a SAG or a Golden Globe nod. And you don’t really get the Oscar without either one of those. Furthermore, it’s been a clean sweep at the major precursors for Daniel Kaluuya and he remains the heavy favorite.
The Verdict
Raci’s journey to the Oscars from relative obscurity is quite a story, but the sound of his name won’t be called on Oscar evening.
My Case Of posts will continue with Chloe Zhao’s direction of Nomadland…
Amanda Seyfried’s work as screen star Marion Davies in David Fincher’s Mank is next up for my Case Of posts in the Supporting Actress competition. If you missed the ones focused on Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), and Olivia Colman (The Father), click below:
The former Mean Girl drew career best notices for the Netflix pic and earned her first nomination. Seyfried also picked up nods at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Amanda Seyfried
She did not, however, get a SAG Award mention and that was a surprise. There’s been just two Oscar recipients (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock and Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk) in Supporting Actress who didn’t at least get a SAG nomination. Furthermore, Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) has emerged as the frontrunner.
The Verdict
Upsets have happened in this category, but Seyfried’s chances are slim.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Raci in Sound of Metal…
Gary Oldman (Mank) is the fourth thespian in my Case Of posts for the Best Actor Oscar contenders. If you missed the ones covering Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Anthony Hopkins (The Father), they’re here:
He’s considered one of the finest actors working today and he found a plum role as Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz in David Fincher’s Netflix pic. Oldman has found success in all the significant precursors garnering nods for this third Academy mention. His first came in 2011 for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and he won the gold three years ago for Darkest Hour.
The Case Against Gary Oldman
In 2017, Oldman was a strong favorite for months and it paid off in victory. This is not the case for 2020. While Mank received the most nominations, it missed in key races like Original Screenplay and Editing. None of the precursors nods have resulted in wins.
The Verdict
Oldman is firmly behind Boseman, Hopkins, and Ahmed as far as chances for winning and might even be fifth when you take Steven Yeun (Minari) into account.
My Case Of posts will continue with Oldman’s Mank costar Amanda Seyfried…
The fourth contender is up in what has become the most fascinating competition at the Oscars (Best Actress) with Frances McDormand in Nomadland. If you missed coverage on the first three (Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman), they’re here:
She’s starring in the Oscar favorite for Best Picture and Director with one of her most acclaimed roles. That’s saying a lot. Nomadland marks McDormand’s sixth nomination overall. She’s been nominated thrice in supporting for Mississippi Burning, Almost Famous, and North Country where’s she 0 for 3. However, in her previous Best Actress plays, she’s 2 for 2 with Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Just this weekend McDormand took the award at BAFTA and there is a 9/10 Oscar match from 2010-2019. Added to that is the history she would make. By taking three Best Actress honors, she would become only the second woman ever to do so (Katherine Hepburn received 4).
The Case Against Frances McDormand
This is as unpredictable a race as it gets. While McDormand’s BAFTA is a sure sign that’s she in this, other precursors have not followed suit. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Andra Day took the Golden Globes and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) is the Critics Choice honoree. All stand reasonable chances and there could be a feeling that McDormand has been there and done that (twice). In an interesting stat, only one Best Actress winner in the 21st century has seen her film take the big prize (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby).
The Verdict
The BAFTA vaults McDormand into even more serious consideration to take Oscar #3 in a race that seems to be coming down to the wire.
My Case Of posts will continue with Gary Oldman in Mank…
The road for Nomadland to Best Picture coronation at the Oscars keeps rolling today thanks to the BAFTAs (the United Kingdom’s version of the Academy Awards). Meanwhile, the Actor and Actress derbies got a bit more interesting while the supporting players continued its recent narrative.
Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland won Best Film and Director in what has become a common theme. However, Frances McDormand’s victory in Actress is her first major precursor in an Oscar race that has truly become a tossup. To break it down, the four significant precursors have all produced different results: McDormand for BAFTA, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) at SAG, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) at Critics Choice, and Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) at the Globes. Bottom line: it’s going to be quite a chore to make a final predictions for the Academy’s ceremony two weeks from today.
Chadwick Boseman’s work in Ma Rainey had swept all the precursors, but that was interrupted this afternoon by Anthony Hopkins in The Father. This is not a huge upset since Hopkins is British royalty. Yet it does establish him as the surefire runner-up to Boseman and a potential threat.
The supporting races followed the SAG path with Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) in Supporting Actress and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) continuing his sweep in Supporting Actor. Both can be considered favorites at the Oscars (especially the latter).
In the screenplay competition, The Father took Adapted over Nomadland in what could be a two picture race in two weeks. Promising Young Woman took Original honors (besting The Trial of the Chicago 7, which came up empty across the pond). Promising also took home Best British Film.
Unlike the other precursors, the BAFTAs cover most of the down ticket categories and I’ll simply say that all the victors below stand decent to very strong chances at repeating at the Oscars:
Animated Film: Soul
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Film Not in the English Language: Another Round
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Editing: Sound of Metal
Makeup & Hair: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Original Score: Soul
Production Design: Mank
Sound: Sound of Metal
Special Visual Effects: Tenet
My final Oscar predictions will be before you know it! Stay tuned…
The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards airs this Easter Sunday evening in an abridged hour long ceremony and, as usual, it could carry significant Oscar implications as to who the frontrunners truly are. That means it’s time for me to put my forecasting hat on and give it my best shot with predictions.
Let’s break it down category by category, shall we? I’ll provide my runner-up selection as well.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees: Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Minari, One Night in Miami, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Analysis: Interestingly, the last two films in the big race (Black Panther, Parasite) won without a single nomination in the individual acting races. That had only happened two times previously between 1995-2017 with 1997’s The Full Monty and 2003’s Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. That will not happen for 2020’s selections as all five have at least one performer contending in a separate category.
However, in a rare occurrence, only two of the five ensembles here landed a Best Picture nomination from the Academy. Those are Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Only once in SAG’s history has a movie emerged victorious here without a BP Oscar nod (1996’s The Birdcage). This serves as my annual reminder that SAG picks the best cast and not the best movie.
Truth be told, Da 5 Bloods is the only pic that I believe has little chance at winning here. Yet Ma Rainey and Miami are likely at a disadvantage due to precedent. That leaves us with Minari and Trial. The latter has seen its Oscar momentum stalled in recent weeks, but its sprawling cast could finally get the major precursor victory that it’s been missing. I’m tempted to pick it and it might be the safe choice.
Minari, on the other hand, has gained steamed recently and emerged as a potential upset winner at the Oscars against Nomadland (as has Promising Young Woman, which missed here). I’m choosing to go with the picture with the hotter hand.
Predicted Winner: Minari
Runner-Up: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Amy Adams (Hillbilly Elegy), Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Analysis: The Golden Globe winner in this category (Andra Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday) isn’t featured here. Therefore we can take a precursor sweep off the table for Best Actress. Adams is the sole nominee without an Oscar nomination so she’s out of contention. Mulligan has the Critics Choice Award and is looked at as the prohibitive favorite from the Academy. She’s the most likely SAG winner. Davis and McDormand could upset, but I’m relatively confident with this pick.
Predicted Winner: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Runner-Up: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Steven Yeun (Minari)
Analysis: There’s a five for five match here with the Academy, but I find this SAG lineup to be a bit more complicated due to other factors. While Boseman has taken the Globes and Critics Choice, his nod in Supporting Actor with the actors guild for Da 5 Bloods (if he wins there) opens the door for either Ahmed or Hopkins. That wouldn’t totally shock me, but it’s hard to predict against Boseman and I won’t.
Predicted Winner: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Runner-Up: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), Yuh-jung Youn (Minari), Helena Zengel (News of the World)
Analysis: Now this is a tough one. The Supporting Actress derby in the precursors has been a true head scratcher. Like in Best Actress, Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) is nowhere to be found (she missed at the Oscars too). Colman and Zengel are the two performers who are highly unlikely to take the prize. This is a genuine three person race between Bakalova, Close, and Youn. Bakalova seems to have momentum with a recent Critics Choice victory. SAG could certainly opt for Close’s baity role (the fact that they nominated her costar Amy Adams lends credence to that). Youn is without a major precursor, but Minari‘s upswing could sweep her in.
Simply put, I’ve very torn here. With Close, the Academy’s narrative for a win is that she’s without an Oscar and is looked at as overdue. SAG, on the other hand, has bestowed trophies for her twice including just two years ago for The Wife. Bakalova has the disadvantage of being in a comedy, but that hindrance may not matter much in this wide open field. I’m left with buying the Minari momentum for Youn. However, I can’t stress enough how feasible a win is for all three actresses.
Predicted Winner: Yuh-jung Youn, Minari
Runner-Up: Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Jared Leto (The Little Things), Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Analysis: This one is far simpler than Supporting Actress as Kaluuya has racked up the Globe and Critics Choice and is the heavy favorite. The only wrinkle, as mentioned above, is if SAG voters decide to honor Boseman here instead of in Best Actor. It probably won’t happen, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Runner-Up: Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods
And there you have it! I’ll have reaction up on Sunday evening. Until then…
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