Mixing satire with crime thriller elements, John Michael McDonagh’s The Forgiven is out in limited fashion this Friday, July 1st. It features the reigning Best Actress Jessica Chastain, who took gold last year as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Her main costar is two-time nominee Ralph Fiennes in addition to Matt Smith, Ismael Kanater, Caleb Landry Jones, Abbey Lee, and Christopher Abbott.
The film first saw exposure last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were decent, but many were far from gushing. That’s reflected in the current 73% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The Forgiven has been flying under the radar since its premiere up north and I don’t see this garnering any awards buzz. Chastain still has a shot for a second nomination in a row with her forthcoming Netflix crime thriller The Good Nurse later this year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.
As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.
I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.
In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)
25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)
11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Armageddon Time
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Nope
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)
11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)
14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)
Adapting her own 2009 novel, Suzanne Allain scripts the period piece dramedy Mr. Malcolm’s List. Out July 1st and apparently borrowing influence from Jane Austen, Emma Holly Jones makes her directorial debut. The cast includes Freida Pinto (from 2008’s Best Picture winner Slumdog Millionaire), Sope Dirisu, Oliver Jackson-Cohen, Ashley Park, Zawe Ashton, and Theo James.
Early reviews are decent at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes with the bulk calling it a pleasant diversion. That’s hardly enough for it to contend for any major awards prizes. Furthermore, distributor Bleecker Street has a sketchy track record getting their films noticed (ask the ensemble from Mass last year).
There’s always the possibility of Costume Design, but I suspect heavier hitters are arriving in the fall. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After helming critically appreciated genre titles The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister (as well as the first Doctor Strange), Scott Derrickson is back in the horror lane this weekend with The Black Phone. Based on a short story by Joe Hill, the supernatural tale began garnering solid buzz when it premiered at Fantastic Fest last fall. Ethan Hawke is the most recognizable name in a cast that includes Mason Thames, Madeleine McGraw, Jeremy Davies, and James Ransone.
Scary movies always face an uphill battle for awards attention. Despite its 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, I don’t foresee Phone dialing up a Best Picture nod. On the other hand, particular acclaim has been afforded to its young costars Thames and McGraw. In order for them to grab any buzz in the supporting fields, the film’s box office reception would need to be fantastic. While I’ve got it performing well, I am not envisioning it reaching that kind of level. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Over a decade ago, comedian Jenny Slate and director Dean Fleischer-Camp teamed up for the acclaimed animated short films Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. They were centered on a character that fits the description of that title. At Telluride over Labor Day weekend last year, the feature length version of their creation was screened to winning reviews.
Slated for release on June 24th via A24, Shell‘s vocal contributions (besides Slate and Fleischer-Camp) include Rosa Salazar, Thomas Mann, and Isabella Rossellini. The mockumentary also includes Conan O’Brien, Lesley Stahl, and Brian Williams playing themselves.
With a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes, Marcel could certainly turn the heads of Academy voters. It might come down to how serious a campaign its studio wages for it and how various Disney and Netflix animated works are received in the months ahead. Bottom line – Shell should be in the mix for the five Animated Feature slots and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The buzz for Disney/Pixar’s Lightyear is just fine, but it’s not in the stratosphere of some of the studio’s other efforts. The origin story for the co-lead of the Toy Story franchise (voiced by Tim Allen for those four pics and by Chris Evans here) is at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes.
If Onward at 88% or Brave at 78% nabbed nominations in the Best Animated Feature Oscar derby, this should manage to do so as well pretty easily. However, let’s see how the competition plays out in the second half of the season. Pixar’s spring title Turning Red has probably reserved a spot and Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio looms. Other hopefuls include Apollo 10 1/2 and Wendell & Wild.
In the 22 years of its existence, Pixar has taken home exactly half of the Academy’s animation trophies (with Disney traditional picking up four more). Two of them were the third and fourth Toy Story sagas. The category wasn’t around for parts one and two and I bet both would’ve won. That bodes well for Lightyear though the somewhat mixed chatter could complicate matters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My updated weekly Oscar predictions goes from 6 categories to 8 with the inclusion of both screenplay derbies! It’s the first time we’ve seen some titles in my possibilities such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and Bones & All.
As for changes in the other races, I’m putting Rustin back in BP and that means Empire of Light drops from the top ten. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) returns to my top five in Actress over Cate Blanchett in Tar.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)
12. White Noise (PR: 20) (+8)
13. Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Tar (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Elvis (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Next Goal Wins (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Till (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+1)
The title Halftime refers to Jennifer Lopez’s joint Super Bowl extravaganza with Shakira in 2020 (at a time when we were just beginning to hear the term coronavirus). The documentary from filmmaker Amanda Micheli has opened this year’s Tribeca Film Festival. While some of its focus lies with that performance, it also takes us through Lopez’s Oscar campaign for Supporting Actress in Hustlers. As you may recall, she was a frontrunner for a nod that never came to fruition.
Perhaps the Academy will reward this after the general feeling that she was snubbed three years ago. Halftime may stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on a handful of reviews, but they’re not raves. Premiering on Netflix on June 14th, I doubt this will be a threat to make the final five in Documentary Feature. And, this time around, Lopez’s exclusion will not be a surprise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When it comes to the nearly three decades old Jurassic franchise, only the first two (the ones directed by Steven Spielberg) have attracted Oscar attention. The 1993 classic received three nods for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing (those races have since combined), and Visual Effects. It won all three. The 1997 follow-up The Lost World: Jurassic Park managed a Visual Effects mention but lost to Titanic.
The dinosaurs have failed to make Academy ballots for 2001’s Jurassic Park III and the initial entries in the current trilogy – 2015’s Jurassic World and 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.
Dominion is the closing chapter that reunites prominent cast members from both trilogies. It’s out Friday and the review embargo is extinct. The result? Only a 40% Rotten Tomatoes which serves as a series worst (predecessor Kingdom previously had the low point at 47%).
So while those creatures might still look cool, I don’t see any chance of a Visual Effects nomination or any others. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 