The 1974 comedy Blazing Saddles rustled up three Oscar nominations and nearly 50 years later, Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank is loosely based on the Mel Brooks classic. Paramount and Nickelodeon are hoping family audiences turn out for the martial arts animated tale that is co-directed by Rob Minkoff (who helmed 1994’s The Lion King) and Mark Koetsier.
Box office success seems unlikely. Reviews are so-so with a current 65% Rotten Tomatoes score. They’re not sharp enough for the Academy to pay much attention. As far as animated fare hitting theaters widely tomorrow, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is the one that seems destined for awards chatter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
With an eye popping budget of $200 million (a reported record for Netflix), spy thriller The Gray Man begins streaming tomorrow. Anthony and Joe Russo (no strangers to gargantuan price tags thanks to Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame) direct Ryan Gosling and Chris Evans. Costars include Ana de Armas, Jessica Henwick, Rege-Jean Page, Wagner Moura, Julia Butters, Dhanush, Alfre Woodard, and Billy Bob Thornton.
The high priced endeavor is garnering mixed reviews with the positive ones not exactly over the moon. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is 49%. Unlike the Russo’s MCU extravaganzas, the visual effects here shouldn’t attract the attention of Academy voters. Same goes for Sound or anything else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Delia Owens had a massive bestseller released in 2018 with Where the Crawdads Sing and the North Carolina set mystery’s film adaptation is out on Friday. Directed by Olivia Newman, the cast of mostly relative unknowns includes Daisy Edgar-Jones, Taylor John Smith, and Harris Dickinson.
The review embargo is lifted and critical reaction is mixed at best. With a 38% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it’s safe to assume awards voters will ignore it… with one possible exception.
A big fan of the source material, superstar Taylor Swift composed the track “Carolina” for the soundtrack. If the Academy nominates it in Best Original Song, that practically guarantees Oscar night performances from Swift and Lady Gaga (whose Top Gun: Maverick ballad “Hold My Hand” should be a no brainer for the final five). Gaga’s chances are considerably stronger, but it could be tempting to bring that double star power to the evening’s festivities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sporting a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris lands in theaters this Friday and Focus Features is hoping for a midsize hit. Based on a 1958 novel by Paul Gallico, Lesley Manville stars a widowed housekeeper who treks to the title city to obtain a Dior dress.
The talented Ms. Manville is no stranger to pictures covering the fashion world. In 2017, she secured an Oscar nod alongside Daniel Day-Lewis in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Phantom Thread. While the reviews are complimentary, Paris is highly unlikely to compete for major above the line categories… with the possible exception of Actress. While I wouldn’t count on it, if the Best Actress derby doesn’t produce many surefire contenders in the coming months, Manville could be a factor. I would, however, say it’s far more feasible that she gets a nod at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy competition. BAFTA recognition is also doable.
Where the picture stands the strongest chance is in Costume Design since that’s a significant focus of the storyline. That category should have its share of upcoming hopefuls – Babylon and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever immediately come to mind. Don’t be surprised if Paris is in that mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Adapted from the last novel ever written by Jane Austen, Persuasion streams on Netflix beginning July 15th. British theater vet Carrie Cracknell makes her directorial debut with Dakota Johnson headlining the cast. Costars include Cosmo Jarvis, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Richard E. Grant, and Henry Golding.
While we’ve seen some Austen renderings attract Oscar attention such as Sense and Sensibility and Pride & Prejudice, don’t expect voters to be persuaded here. The pic is generating lackluster reviews and it currently stands at just 32% on Rotten Tomatoes.
For its star, there could be a silver lining as her supporting turn in Cha Cha Real Smooth could be recognized in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After a brief theatrical run last month, the animated adventure tale The Sea Beast began its Netflix streaming run today. Chris Williams, a Disney vet who co-directed Big Hero 6 and Moana, helms the project. Actors behind the voices include Karl Urban, Zaris-Angel Hator, Jared Harris, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and Dan Stevens.
Reviews for the monstrous tale are quite positive with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. Its potential inclusion could hinge on whether Netflix mounts a major campaign. In the animation field, they may throw all their chips behind Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (due in December).
The critical reaction is a bonus for Beast. The question is whether it’s still fresh in voters minds a few months from now and if Netflix is reminding them of it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Thor entries of the Marvel Cinematic Universe have yet to receive any attention at the Oscars. While that may not seem terribly surprising, it’s important to remember that 12 of the MCU blockbusters have nabbed Visual Effects nods. None have won.
Love and Thunder opens Friday and it’s the fourth adventure centered on Chris Hemworth’s Asgardian former King. Taika Waititi returns to direct after helming 2017’s Ragnarok. It was easily the most acclaimed of the series with a 93% Rotten Tomatoes score. It didn’t make the cut for its visuals though while fellow MCU entry Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 did. Thunder‘s reviews don’t match its predecessor as it currently stands at 71%.
The MCU should get a 13th VE mention for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. If Ragnarok couldn’t manage the final five for the visuals or Makeup or Hairstyling or Costume Design, I’m skeptical this follow-up will. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.
The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).
However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)
16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)
22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)
24. Till (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Maria Schrader, She Said
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)
15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Amsterdam
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)
Mixing satire with crime thriller elements, John Michael McDonagh’s The Forgiven is out in limited fashion this Friday, July 1st. It features the reigning Best Actress Jessica Chastain, who took gold last year as Tammy Faye Bakker in The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Her main costar is two-time nominee Ralph Fiennes in addition to Matt Smith, Ismael Kanater, Caleb Landry Jones, Abbey Lee, and Christopher Abbott.
The film first saw exposure last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were decent, but many were far from gushing. That’s reflected in the current 73% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The Forgiven has been flying under the radar since its premiere up north and I don’t see this garnering any awards buzz. Chastain still has a shot for a second nomination in a row with her forthcoming Netflix crime thriller The Good Nurse later this year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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