The ensemble drama LifeItself opens next weekend and it likely faces an uphill battle for eyeballs. Dan Fogelman, best known as creator of NBC’s hit series “This Is Us”, directs. The cast includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, Annette Bening, Antonio Banderas, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Life premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last week to poor reviews and word of mouth. It stands at just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes and the marketing campaign has been lackluster.
Add all that up and this is looking like a major flop that could struggle to hit $5 million.
LifeItself opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my TheHousewithaClockinItsWalls prediction, click here:
My weekly Oscar predictions in the major categories, as expected, has seen some significant shifting. This is mostly due to the Toronto Film Festival and the screenings of several major contenders.
Here are some quick notes on the movement that’s taken place in the past seven days:
The addiction drama Beautiful Boy has taken a hit in the standings, due to a mixed Toronto reaction. It falls from #5 all the way to #21 in the Best Picture derby. Additionally, I have taken it out the 5 predicted nominees in Best Actor (Steve Carell) and Adapted Screenplay. However, Timothee Chalamet is still looking good for Supporting Actor.
If Beale Street Could Talk had its much awaited debut up north. I basically had it as a place holder pick at #1 in both Picture and Director, but it’s fallen in both races to #5 and #4, respectively. This vaults A Star Is Born to the #1 slot in BP with Alfonso Cuaron’s direction of Roma currently topping Best Director.
The elimination of the Best Popular Film category could be a good thing for Black Panther. For the first time, I have it included in my nine predicted BP nominees.
Peter Farrelly’s Green Book seemed to be a crowd favorite in Toronto. While I have it just outside my BP rankings, it’s now included in Best Original Screenplay and Mahershala Ali is predicted for Supporting Actor. It’s not entirely certain yet whether he will be placed in that category or go co-lead with Viggo Mortensen.
Speaking of category placement, we’re still not sure where Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz will end up for The Favourite. Right now, I’m assuming Colman in Actress and both Stone and Weisz for Supporting Actress. I’ve now got Stone getting a nod for the first time.
The Dick Cheney biopic starring Christian Bale has apparently switched its working title name Backseat to Vice.
My current Best Actor predictions now include Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun) with the aforementioned Carell and Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) out.
In Best Actress, solid Toronto chatter for the work of Viola Davis (Widows) puts her in the mix with Nicole Kidman (Destroyer) taken out.
Widows also shined a light on Daniel Kaluuya as he’s said to have a terrific part in it. He is now included in Supporting Actor along with Green Book‘s Ali. Sam Rockwell (Vice) and Russell Crowe (Boy Erased) have been moved out of the predicted nominees.
In Supporting Actress, Emma Stone has replaced Vera Farmiga (The Front Runner).
Yorgos Lanthimos has been included in my 5 director nominees and that means Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) is on the outside looking in currently.
Here’s the whole breakdown for this week!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. First Man (PR: 4)
4. The Favourite (PR: 6)
5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR 1)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. Boy Erased (PR: 8)
8. Vice (PR: 9 – previously known as Backseat)
9. Black Panther (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Green Book (PR: 18)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 15)
12. Widows (PR: 14)
13. The Front Runner (PR: 10)
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 25)
15. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 24)
16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
17. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 21)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 17)
19. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 16)
20. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
22. Cold War (PR: 20)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 23)
24. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)
25. Peterloo (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
July 22
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
9. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 15)
12. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
Mike Leigh, Peterloo
Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)
4. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 4)
5. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
7. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
8. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 10)
9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 5)
10. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 14)
11. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 9)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 13)
15. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 11)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)
5. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 12)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 9)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 3)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
12. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
13. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 11)
14. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 3)
7. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 12)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick
J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 7)
4. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 14)
7. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
10. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 4)
13. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)
The film festival season always gives us plenty of Best Picture contenders and potential recipients for the acting categories and elsewhere. There’s also those movies that debut and completely eliminate themselves from contention due to poor reviews. At Toronto, that definitely appears to be the case with Dan Fogelman’s LifeItself (not to be confused with the terrific documentary about Roger Ebert).
Fogelman is most known for creating the hit NBC tearjerker series “This Is Us”. For his second feature film (after the barely noticed Al Pacino led DannyCollins), he’s assembled a cast including Oscar Isaac, Antonio Banderas, Annette Bening, Olivia Wilde, Mandy Patinkin, Olivia Cooke, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Simply put, critical reaction here has been bad, saying it’s manipulative and corny. Bottom line: LifeItself has taken itself out of any awards talk.
The film opens September 21. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.
And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.
Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!
Best Picture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Roma (PR: 4)
4. First Man (PR: 5)
5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
6. The Favourite (PR: 13)
7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Backseat (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Black Panther (PR: 12)
12. Peterloo (PR: 9)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
14. Widows (PR: 11)
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)
16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)
17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)
18. Green Book (PR: 21)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)
20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)
21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)
22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)
24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
The Old Man & The Gun
Destroyer
Ben Is Back
Best Director
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)
12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)
15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)
11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)
13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)
14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Rory Kinnear, Peterloo
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)
4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)
5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)
8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)
9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)
14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)
15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War
Dropped Out:
Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)
12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)
13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)
15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sebastian Stan, Destroyer
Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)
4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)
5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)
7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)
10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)
12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)
15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer
Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)
8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)
11. Disobedience (PR: 13)
12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
13. Widows (PR: 12)
14. Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Willem Dafoe has received three Oscar nominations for Best Supporting Actor in his long and distinguished career: 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s ShadowoftheVampire, and just last year for TheFloridaProject. He has never gotten recognition in lead Actor, but that is likely to change with AtEternity’sGate. Featuring Dafoe as Vincent Van Gogh in his final days, the Julian Schnabel directed pic has debuted at the Venice Film Festival. Early buzz suggests its star stands an excellent chance at a nomination.
Most of the critical reaction is encouraging, but the picture itself is certainly a question mark in all other categories. Schnabel has certainly received Academy love before. 2000’s BeforeNightFalls saw Javier Bardem get a Best Actor nod. 2007’s TheDivingBellandtheButterfly garnered four nominations, including Best Director. Original Screenplay and Cinematography could be two additional categories where this is considered.
As far as Dafoe’s costars, Oscar Isaac is a possibility as fellow painter Paul Gauguin. Yet it’s also entirely feasible that CBS Films will focus the bulk of its campaign on Dafoe. They may not have to try too hard.
Bottom line: any other races are uncertain, but Dafoe looks poised for his first walk down the red carpet as a Best Actor nominee.
AtEternity’sGate is out domestically on November 16. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!
Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.
In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).
Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.
In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.
All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.
You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
BestPicture
1. If Beale Street Could Talk
2. A Star Is Born
3. Beautiful Boy
4. Roma
5. First Man
6. BlacKkKlansman
7. Boy Erased
8. Backseat
9. Peterloo
Other Possibilities:
10. Mary Queen of Scots
11. Widows
12. Black Panther
13. The Favourite
14. The Front Runner
15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
17. Crazy Rich Asians
18. Old Man & The Gun
19. Bohemian Rhapsody
20. Destroyer
21. Green Book
22. Mary Poppins Returns
23. At Eternity’s Gate
24. On the Basis of Sex
25. Ben Is Back
BestDirector
1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Other Possibilities:
6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
7. Adam McKay, Backseat
8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
12. Steve McQueen, Widows
13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
It’s an exciting time on the blog as Oscar prediction season is here. Readers of this here know that every Thursday starting very soon, I will be posting weekly Oscar predictions in the six major categories… wait, make that seven as I will now be including the new and controversial Most Popular Film race.
We turn our attention to Best Supporting Actor! If you missed my early predictions for Supporting Actress, you can find it here:
A word of warning: these are very early predictions and they will unquestionably change. I like to do my first estimates before the film festival season approaches (beginning next week). Toronto and Venice and other fests will surely shape my predictions in a massive away. Expect lots of Oscar Watch posts in the next month concentrating on dozens of screened movies at the festivals.
Beginning next Thursday (August 30), I will begin my weekly posts listing 25 possibilities for Picture and 15 in the other major races. At that time, numerical rankings will come into play. In November, that will switch to 15 listings for Picture and 10 in ALL other categories honoring feature films.
Historical thriller Operation Finale sets out in theaters this Labor Day weekend, hoping to bring in an adult audience looking for very late summer entertainment. The tale of Jewish Nazi hunters comes from director Chris Weitz, whose eclectic filmography includes About a Boy and The Twilight Saga: New Moon. Oscar Isaac, Ben Kingsley, Melanie Laurent, Haley Lu Richardson, Lior Raz, Nick Kroll, and Joe Alwyn star.
Unlike most holiday frames, Labor Day is not known for huge debuts and Finale could struggle to find a decent start. While the Star Wars franchise has certainly given Isaac exposure, nothing has shown he can open a picture.
I’ll predict a high single digits gross over the long weekend. That means it should hit double digits when factoring in the Wednesday opening.
Operation Finale opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
We may be smack dab in the middle of the summer movie season, but Oscar season will be taking shape before we know it. This week, the organizers of the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals have unveiled lineups for the pictures that will be premiering at their events in a few weeks. Many of them are awards hopefuls.
To give you an idea of the importance of festivals when it comes to Oscar nominees, six of last year’s nine nominees premiered at some combination of Toronto, Venice, Telluride, New York, Sundance, or Cannes. Every Best Picture winner from this decade and beyond played at one of them. The last one that didn’t was The Departed back in 2006.
The months of September-December are the fertile ground for most nominated features. Last year, seven of the nine Picture nominees came out in that time frame. In 2016 – it was 8 out of 9.
Beginning in late August/early September, I will begin my weekly Oscar prediction columns. It works like this:
Late August/Early September – first posting of predictions in the categories of Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Months of September and October – weekly Oscar predictions column post covering those 6 categories, as well as Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-25. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-15.
Months of November through announcement of nominations – weekly Oscar predictions column covering every category involving feature films. For Best Picture, I will be ranking possibilities numbered 1-15. For other categories, it will be numbered 1-10.
While these posts are a month away, today I bring you 25 fall awards hopefuls that I suspect I’ll be mentioning frequently. Most of these are premiering at the high-profile quartet of upcoming fests (Venice, Toronto, New York, Telluride). Some aren’t, but could certainly be added to Telluride or New York especially (as they’re more known for surprise screenings).
Let’s get to it!
A Star is Born
The third remake of the musical drama marks the directorial debut of Bradley Cooper and features a potential showcase role for his costar Lady Gaga. Early word of mouth is already strong.
At Eternity’s Gate
He received a nomination for his supporting work last year for The Florida Project and Willem Dafoe plays Vincent Van Gogh in what could be another awards bait role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Backseat
Expect Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short to receive plenty of attention. Christian Bale is Cheney with Amy Adams as wife Lynne and last year’s Supporting Actor winner Sam Rockwell as George W. Bush.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Beautiful Boy
Steve Carell plays the father of a meth addict played by Timothee Chalamet, who was nominated last year for Call Me by Your Name.
Ben is Back
Lucas Hedges and Julia Roberts headline this family drama that premieres at Toronto.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Bohemian Rhapsody
Despite some behind the scenes drama in its filming, all eyes will be on Rami Malek’s work as Queen front man Freddie Mercury.
Boy Erased
Perhaps an even larger showcase role for Lucas Hedges is this drama where he plays a homosexual sent to conversion camp. Joel Edgerton directs and costars along with Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe.
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Melissa McCarthy received an Academy Award nomination with her breakthrough role in Bridesmaids. This drama about writer Lee Israel could muster attention for her yet again.
First Man
Director Damien Chazelle has seen both of his efforts (Whiplash, La La Land) nominated for Best Picture and he’s the youngest filmmaker to ever win Best Director. His third pic is a Neil Armstrong biopic starring Ryan Gosling. It opens the Venice Film Festival.
If Beale Street Could Talk
The follow-up to his Oscar winning Moonlight, Barry Jenkins directs this drama set in 1970s Harlem.
July 22
United 93 and Captain Phillips director Paul Greengrass brings his latest to Netflix and it focuses on the 2011 terrorist attacks in Norway.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
Life Itself
Premiering at Toronto, this ensemble drama includes Oscar Isaac, Olivia Munn, Annette Bening, and Antonio Banderas.
Mary Poppins Returns
She’s already a contender for A Quiet Place and Emily Blunt could face competition from herself with Disney’s expected monster hit.
Mary Queen of Scots
They were both nominated for Best Actress last year and now Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie star in this historical drama about the title character and Queen Elizabeth I.
Old Man & The Gun
David Lowery directs Robert Redford in the true life tale of a prison escape artist. Sissy Spacek and Casey Affleck costar.
On the Basis of Sex
The documentary RBG could get noticed by the Documentary branch, as could this biopic which casts Felicity Jones as Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Peterloo
Acclaimed British director Mike Leigh returns with this historical 19th century drama.
Roma
This Mexican family drama is Alfonso Cuaron’s first directorial effort since his acclaimed Gravity.
Suspiria
Call Me by Your Name maker Luca Guadagnino shifts gears for this remake of the 1970s horror classic. Don’t be surprised if this receives attention in some technical categories.
The Favourite
The Lobster director Yorgos Lanthimos is behind this historical drama featuring Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz.
The Front Runner
Jason Reitman directs this biopic of failed Presidential candidate Gary Hart with Hugh Jackman cast in the role.
**NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME
The Sisters Brothers
John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, and Jake Gyllenhaal are among the cast in this Western from acclaimed French director Jacques Audiard.
Welcome to Marwen
Steve Carell stars in this unique looking drama from Forrest Gump maker Robert Zemeckis.
Widows
It’s been five years between projects for Oscar winning 12 Years a Slave director Steve McQueen. This heist thriller stars recent winner Viola Davis.
And there’s your very early preview of some titles to keep an eye on over the coming months. Those Oscar posts will start rolling out weekly in about a month! Stay tuned…
In 2015, screenwriter and author Alex Garland announced himself as quite a special director with Ex Machina. With a visual style that drew fair comparison to Stanley Kubrick and a compelling story to go with it, that picture was one of the year’s highlights. There is no sophomore slump to be had with Annihilation, a challenging and eye-popping sci-fi experience that sticks with you after the credits roll (as did his first picture).
Lena (Natalie Portman) is a biology professor and Army vet whose husband Kane (Oscar Isaac) has been missing for a year after taking on a mysterious mission. He turns up one day after that disappearance, but doesn’t seem himself. A health scare causes him to be quarantined and causes Lena to search for answers. She finds some of them from psychologist Dr. Ventress (Jennifer Jason Leigh). It turns out Kane was part of a secret expedition to The Shimmer, a stretch of land that’s been evacuated and is undergoing government testing for bizarre activity within its perimeters. Many military personnel have entered it. Kane is the first to return.
Dr. Ventress and Lena figure out that some scientific experience may be better served to investigate The Shimmer, as opposed to military might. They assemble an all female squad that includes a physicist (Tessa Thompson), a paramedic (Gina Rodriguez), and a geologist (Tuva Novotny) to join them. Other than the doctor, the rest of the team is unaware of Lena’s familial connection to The Shimmer.
The world that these five women enter is a beautiful, eerie, and dangerous one. There are surprises to be found in The Shimmer – so much so that saying too much would enter spoiler territory. All of the characters that enter it have backstories that cause them to take on such a risky mission. Lena’s is an obvious one – to find out what happened to her husband. Some of the others are a bit more subtle.
Annihilation, like Ex Machina, has certain sequences that are stunning. There’s a scene involving a highly abnormal creature (you’ll know when you see it) that is truly tension filled and weirdly wonderful. The production design and look of The Shimmer is a triumph. Portman’s central character is a complicated one. She’s not just the concerned wife looking for answers. Lena has her own demons and they tie directly into her mission. That holds true for all of the women. Leigh and Rodriguez are particular standouts in their supporting work.
After Ex Machina, I certainly anticipated Annihilation to be a visually glorious experience and it is. Yet we’ve also seen Garland’s abilities to tell a tale packed with food for thought afterwards. Annihilation has something to say about rebirth, marriage, disease, depression, and more. You may not even realize it all until later. In the meantime, I remained transfixed on the unique world it created to explore those issues.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 