My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:
- Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
- I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that First Man is out for the first time.
- Black Panther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces Crazy Rich Asians.
- In Original Screenplay, Eighth Grade is back in over Vice.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
8. Vice (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. First Man (PR: 10)
11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)
12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)
14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
15. First Reformed (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Crazy Rich Asians
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)
9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)
10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)
10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)
7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)
8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)
10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Natalie Portman, Vox Lux
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)
4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Black Panther (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. First Man (PR: 7)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)
9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)
10. Widows (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 3)
3. Green Book (PR: 2)
4. First Reformed (PR: 5)
5. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)
8. Private Life (PR: 9)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)
10. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)
Best Foreign Language Film
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. Cold War (PR: 2)
3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)
4. Capernaum (PR: 5)
5. Burning (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Never Look Away (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)
8. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ayka (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Girl
Border
I Am Not a Witch
Best Animated Feature
1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)
2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)
3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)
5. Mirai (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Early Man (PR: 7)
7. Smallfoot (PR: 6)
8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 9)
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 8)
10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)
2. Free Solo (PR: 4)
3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)
4. RBG (PR: 3)
5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)
7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 9)
8. Shirkers (PR: 8)
9. Dark Money (PR: 7)
10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Science Fair
Best Film Editing
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. First Man (PR: 2)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Vice (PR: 4)
7. Black Panther (PR: 7)
8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Cinematography
1. Roma (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)
4. The Favourite (PR: 3)
5. Cold War (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)
8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)
9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Green Book (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Vice
Best Production Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
5. First Man (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Roma (PR: 8)
7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)
8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)
9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)
10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)
Best Costume Design
1. The Favourite (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)
8. Colette (PR: 6)
9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Black Panther (PR: 1)
2. Vice (PR: 3)
3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)
5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)
6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)
7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Colette
A Star Is Born
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Editing
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. Black Panther (PR: 3)
3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)
4. Roma (PR: 5)
5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)
8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)
9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Sound Mixing
1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Black Panther (PR: 3)
4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)
5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
7. Roma (PR: 7)
8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)
9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)
2. First Man (PR: 2)
3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)
4. Black Panther (PR: 5)
5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)
7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Incredibles 2
Aquaman
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
A Quiet Place
Best Original Score
1. First Man (PR: 1)
2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Panther (PR: 7)
7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary Queen of Scots
Incredibles 2
Colette
Suspiria
Best Original Song
1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)
3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)
4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)
5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)
7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)
8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)
9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)
10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex
And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
A Star Is Born, The Favourite
9 Nominations
Black Panther
8 Nominations
First Man, Mary Poppins Returns
7 Nominations
Roma
6 Nominations
BlacKkKlansman
5 Nominations
If Beale Street Could Talk
4 Nominations
Green Book, Vice
3 Nominations
Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots
2 Nominations
A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG
1 Nomination
Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?