Insurgent Box Office Prediction

Opening a year after the hit Divergent, Insurgent is the second picture in a series of wildly popular YA novels penned by Veronica Roth. Stars Shailene Woodley, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Theo James, Kate Winslet and Zoe Kravitz are back in the mix, along with newcomers to the franchise Naomi Watts and Octavia Spencer.

While this series will likely never do Hunger Games level numbers, the original opened to an impressive $54 million last March on its way to a $150 million domestic haul. It doesn’t hurt that Woodley, Teller, and Elgort have kept themselves firmly in the public eye with recent commercial and critical hits such as The Fault in Our Stars and Whiplash.

The big question is whether or not Insurgent manages to open larger than its predecessor. My gut feeling is that it will, even though competition among female fans will be considerable with Cinderella’s second weekend. I believe this will manage to break the $60 million mark out of the gate.

Insurgent opening weekend prediction: $62.1 million

For my prediction on The Gunman, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/the-gunman-box-office-prediction/

For my Do You Believe? prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/do-you-believe-box-office-prediction/

Get On Up Movie Review

Get On Up never fully finds a way to break out of the typical biopic conventions that we’ve come to anticipate from the genre. The same holds true for some of the prevalent flaws we find in these types of pictures. The rough edges of the central subject are mostly glossed over. Family dynamics including mother abandonment issues, no matter how true, are too familiar.

What director Tate Taylor has going in his favor are two big things: James Brown is one hell of a subject and Chadwick Boseman was born to play him. Told in a non linear structure, Get On Up explores sixty years of history for the Godfather of Soul, from childhood to the early 90s. We witness his troubled and poor upbringing, his rise to stardom, his business abilities that earned him more money than any other African American musician at the time, and so forth. There’s also his well known history with women that includes domestic violence and infidelity yet that subject is not a primary focus.

Taylor enlists some of his cast from his blockbuster The Help with Viola Davis as his mother who left him and Octavia Spencer as the aunt who raised him. Dan Aykroyd appears as Brown’s longtime business manager. The real Brown, by the way, had a cameo in Aykroyd’s The Blues Brothers in 1980. The second best performance belongs to Nelsan Eddie as best friend and JB hype man Bobby Byrd.

Just as Mr. Brown (his preferred method of what to be called) owned every stage he was on, the man playing him owns this picture and makes it worthwhile. Boseman embodies Brown and is quite remarkable during the musical numbers. Those sequences are the best thing about Get On Up. One of them includes mingling Boseman with the real Brown and it’s thrilling. Let’s face it: by now we have witnessd a lot of biopics that include the Civil Rights movement, the Vietnam War, musicians with inflated egos, addictions, and Mommy and Daddy issues. The music isn’t usually as impossibly funky though with an actor expertly channeling a complicated legend.

*** (out of four)

Black Or White Box Office Prediction

Kevin Costner is certainly pumping out the movies and this Friday comes Black or White, an interracial drama that finds the actor trying to maintain custody of his granddaughter. Octavia Spencer and Anthony Mackie costar. The small budget pic premiered last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to mixed reviews. It was released in limited fashion in December for an Oscar qualifying run which didn’t pan out whatsoever.

The film stands at a meager 38% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’s hard to imagine this gathering much buzz. Additionally it’s being released on a relatively low 1500 estimated screens. It has been quite some time since Costner had drawing power at the box office and Black or White should be in line for a minor debut.

Black or White opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million

For my Project Almanac prediction, click here:

Project Almanac Box Office Prediction

For my prediction on The Loft, click here:

The Loft Box Office Prediction

Fruitvale Station Movie Review

Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station doesn’t focus on the true life homicide of Oscar Grant as much as it tells the story of his life. A life that is still forming like any 22 year old man’s is. And yet the end result of Grant’s young existence permeates the whole picture because we know finality is very near.

On New Year’s Day 2009 at the title train station in Oakland, Oscar Grant (Michael B. Jordan) was killed when a police officer shot him while he was unarmed and handcuffed. The film opens with actual cell phone footage of the incident. We then move back hours before to New Year’s Eve and watch Oscar’s day and night unfold. There’s a birthday party for his mother (Octavia Spencer). His worries about recently losing his grocery store job and whether or not he’ll fall back into the trap of dealing drugs (he’s been incarcerated before and is on probation). His relationship with his girlfriend (Melonie Diaz) and young daughter (Ahna O’Reilly). And a fateful evening to go see fireworks in San Francisco and a return trip home that never occurs.

Fruitvale Station does not make Oscar Grant out to be a saint. He’s a complicated young man who’s conflicted about his fidelity to his girlfriend and how to earn money to care for his family. In a flashback jail scene, we see a side of rage in Oscar that may sadly be necessary in order for him to survive in that world.

First-time director/writer Coogler is a USC grad just like John Singleton, who made his debut feature Boyz N The Hood over twenty years ago. Both movies are similar in this way – they know their environments and portray them with honesty. Where Coogler’s screenplay succeeds best is its subtlety. He recognizes that by showing us the sometimes mundane activities of Oscar’s last hours, it still packs an emotional punch. Oscar and the people he loves and who love him don’t know what’s coming, but we do.

Michael B. Jordan gives a fantastic performance that is an announcement of quite an actor that we’ll be seeing a lot of. His emotional state, in quiet moments with his daughter to truly frightening ones in that station, varies greatly at times and there’s a never a moment where Jordan’s work isn’t completely believable. Diaz and O’Reilly are quite good and Spencer is outstanding as always, with a wrenching scene after Oscar’s death.

There are only a few occasions where the script veers into unnecessary dramatization, such as when Oscar tries to save a dog from dying on the road. For the vast length of its running time, Station simply shows us Oscar’s day. To him, it’s just another one. To us, we know it’s tragically much more than that. And it shouldn’t have been.

***1/2 (out of four)

Get On Up Box Office Prediction

The Godfather of Soul gets his own biopic when Get On Up debuts in theaters this Friday. Chadwick Boseman, who played Jackie Robinson in the hit 42, portrays James Brown with The Help director Tate Taylor behind the camera. Costars include Dan Aykroyd, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Craig Robinson, and Jill Scott.

Get On Up could be in a good position for a solid debut. Taylor’s The Help opened in August three summers ago to $26 million. That would certainly be a good number for this. 42 premiered to $27 million in 2013.

The pic could be successful in bringing in African-American audiences and adult moviegoers burnt out on sci-fi blockbusters. I’ll predict Get On Up manages a debut in the mid 20s.

Get On Up opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million

For my Guardians of the Galaxy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/27/guardians-of-the-galaxy-box-office-prediction/