Tag: nicole kidman

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 28th Edition

When I did my forecast for the 96th Academy Awards around the same late September time frame last year, it yielded nine of the ten eventual Best Picture nominees. The only miss was not having The Zone of Interest in the hopefuls and I had it ranked 11th in other possibilities. It is also worth noting that eventual winner Oppenheimer was ranked #1.

For Best Director, it was four of five with Christopher Nolan correctly atop my chart. Four of five was also the score for Best Actress and Actor and I had victors Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in first. For the supporting races, both were 3 out of five. In Supporting Actress, Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) was listed in second while Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) was projected highest in Supporting Actor. In the Screenplay derbies, it was 3 of 5 in each with Adapted recipient American Fiction and Original top finisher Anatomy of a Fall both listed 4th of 5.

That history lesson illustrates that the script for the previous Oscars had largely been written several months before nominations were unveiled. Will the 97th ceremony follow a similar pattern?

It sure doesn’t seem like it. I maintain that there’s no clear frontrunner for BP while Oppenheimer was definitely in that position a year ago. Solid to fair cases could be made for Blitz, The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Pérez, Sing Sing, or Dune: Part Two to take gold. There’s also no slam dunks thus far in the acting competitions whereas Downey Jr. was kind of a no-brainer at this juncture and Murphy, Stone, and Randolph were in the 1 or 2 positions in their races.

That makes it all the more intriguing as the 2024 season plays out. The big news this week was that TIFF People’s Choice Winner The Life of Chuck will not open until summer 2025. Therefore you’ll see it drop from contention everywhere I had it listed as a possibility below. Last week, I only had Chuck actually being nominated in Adapted Screenplay. It is replaced by Dune.

I considered elevating the unseen Blitz back to first position in BP, but am giving it to The Brutalist still by a hair. It was announced this week that the latter will release on December 20th via A24. There is one change in BP as I’m putting in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain for its initial top 10 appearance at the expense of The Room Next Door.

This week I’m also shutting the door on Tilda Swinton in Best Actress for The Room Next Door with Nightbitch‘s Amy Adams returning to the quintet. I went back and forth about whether to include Adams or Babygirl‘s Nicole Kidman.

You can all view all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (E)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A Real Pain (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. September 5 (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Gladiator II

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+2)

9. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+3)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+1)

9. September 5 (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Substance (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hit Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Vermiglio (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kneecap (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

All We Imagine as Light

Pedro Páramo

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Savages (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daughters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dahomey (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Separated (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Skywalkers: A Love Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Gladiator II (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Anora (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Blitz (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Wicked (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Maria (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)

8. Conclave (PR: 8) (E)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nickel Boys

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Substance (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maria (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

The Room Next Door

The Life of Chuck

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (E)

8. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

“We’re Back” from Moana 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: 7) (-3)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Blitz (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Twisters (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Better Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)

And that adds up to these numbers generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

10 Nominations

Blitz

9 Nominations

The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Real Pain, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Wicked, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Kneecap, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 21st Edition

The Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals have all concluded and the Oscar landscape is looking a bit clearer for the 97th edition of the ceremony. Per usual with the festivals, there are films that rise and those that fall. No film rose more than Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice, but Toronto gave us a shocker in the form of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck. The sci-fi flick based on a Stephen King novella took People’s Choice at the Canadian event. 15 of the last 16 victors of that prize have received a Best Picture nomination including the past 12 in a row. We still don’t know which distributor will buy Chuck and it’s not confirmed to be out this year. For that matter, we also don’t know for a fact that A24’s The Brutalist will make the ’24 calendar. For now I’m assuming both will. That means I’m elevating Chuck from unranked to #11 in my BP possibilities on the outside just looking in.

There was a significant announcement that Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore will be both be campaigned in lead actress for The Room Next Door. That means Swinton enters my quintet in that category with Amy Adams (Nightbitch) dropping. With Swinton leaving supporting, Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) resurfaces there. It has also been confirmed that Saoirse Ronan will vie for Actress with The Outrun and Supporting Actress in Blitz. I continue to list her a double nominee.

We have a change in Supporting Actor as I’m putting Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) in with Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) falling out of the projected five.

For the last few months, I’ve included 25 BP contenders and 15 for Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions. As I typically do around this time of year, I will condense this to 15 BPs and 10 in the others. Got all that? Good!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

12. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. September 5 (PR: 16) (+3)

14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)

15. A Real Pain (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Queer

Nosferatu

The Apprentice

All We Imagine as Light

Joker: Folie à Deux

The Piano Lesson

Wicked

Juror No. 2

His Three Daughters

A Different Man

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Jason Reitman, Saturday Night

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Ridley Scott, Gladiator II

Luca Guadagnino, Queer

Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door

Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

June Squibb, Thelma

Zendaya, Challengers

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness

Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door – moved to lead actress

Lesley Manville, Queer

Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Drew Starkey, Queer

Harris Dickinson, Blitz

Mark Eidelstein, Anora

Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside

Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson

John Lithgow, Conclave

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hard Truths (PR: 10) (+1)

10. September 5 (PR: 13) (+3)

Dropped Out:

His Three Daughters

Dídi

Kinds of Kindness

A Different Man

Juror No. 2

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Conclave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)

7. Queer (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

I’m Still Here

Gladiator II

Nightbitch

Inside Out 2

Nosferatu

The Wild Robot

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)

8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 8) (E)

9. Pedro Páramo (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Simon of the Mountain

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. No Other Land (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Daughters (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Union (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Conclave (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Anora (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Room Next Door

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Conclave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Substance (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Gladiator II

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Queer

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Why Am I Here” from Shirley

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Maria (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Saturday Night

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Brutalist (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 4) (E)

5. Here (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Better Man (PR: 9) (-1)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

8 Nominations

Blitz

6 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Conclave, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

Maria, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Joker: Folie à Deux, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, The Apprentice, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, The Life of Chuck, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, Will & Harper

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.

Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.

Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.

There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.

In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.

And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.

Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)

3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)

14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)

16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)

20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)

21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)

22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)

25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)

Dropped Out:

Nightbitch

Maria

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)

14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting

Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

André Holland, The Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)

3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress

10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Kathy Burke, Blitz

Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Stephen Graham, Blitz

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)

4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)

13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)

10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)

15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

The Fire Inside

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)

5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Count of Monte Cristo

Cloud

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)

10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Maria

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Queer

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Challengers

Blitz

Nickel Boys

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux

“Compress/Repress” from Challengers

“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)

7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Civil War

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Alien: Romulus

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

The Brutalist

9 Nominations

Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Gladiator II

4 Nominations

Conclave, Nosferatu

3 Nominations

The Room Next Door, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

1 Nomination

All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked

Oscar Predictions: Hard Truths

Marianne Jean-Baptiste was up for Supporting Actress 28 years ago in Mike Leigh’s Secrets & Lies, which received five total nominations including Best Picture, Director, Actress (Brenda Blethyn) and Original Screenplay. Leigh and Jean-Baptiste have collaborated again for Hard Truths which was unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival before its December 6th stateside bow. Costars include Michele Austin, David Webber, and Tuwaine Barrett. It could certainly put Jean-Baptiste in the mix again and this time for lead Actress.

The Metacritic score for the drama is 86 while some reviews say it’s not top-tier Leigh. The British filmmaker is a five-time hopeful for Original Screenplay (he’s never won). In addition to his Lies mention, the other nominated screenplays are Topsy-Turvy, Vera Drake, Happy-Go-Lucky, and Another Year. He could still make the Academy’s cut for Truths, but it’s no guarantee given the slightly more mixed reaction.

Based on buzz alone, Jean-Baptiste would be a slam dunk for Best Actress inclusion. Yet there’s the competition to consider. That includes a growing list that includes Angelina Jolie (Maria), Mikey Madison (Anora), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and, yes, Amy Adams (Nightbitch). I also question whether distributor Bleecker Street is equipped to run an effective campaign. That said, she is certainly in the top 10 of competitors and likely close to making the quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Venice Makes Room for Next Door

The 2024 Venice Film Festival has wrapped production with a bit of a surprise ending. Pedro Almodóvar’s English language debut The Room Next Door has taken the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Italy. The relationship drama starring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton has received positive reviews (95% RT), but the general consensus is they might not have been strong enough for this particular prize.

What does that mean for its Oscar chances? Well, it certainly helps exposure prior to its December 20th limited stateside start and nationwide expansion in January. Five of the past seven Golden Lion recipients have ended up nabbing BP nods – The Shape of Water (winner), Roma, Joker, Nomadland (winner), and Poor Things.

Venice spreads the wealth when it comes to the victors. The Silver Lion designation (equivalent to Best Director) was bestowed to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Holocaust survivor epic was the breakout of the fest with its awards possibilities going through the roof. It could become a major player at the 97th Academy Awards and Corbet’s inclusion here proves it. On the other hand, this was probably the betting odds favorite for the Lion and didn’t get there.

The Volpi Cups go to Actor and Actress. The former went to Vincent Lindon for The Quiet Son. It’s doubtful that he’ll be a factor in the Academy’s race. In the past decade, two Volpi Actor winners have garnered Oscar nods (Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate and Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin).

In Best Actress, the story could be different with Nicole Kidman being named for Babygirl. Seeking her sixth Academy nom, she was unable to accept the Venice award due to her mother’s passing. At the Oscars, Best Actress is starting to look crowded. Yet A24 is likely to mount a spirited campaign for the performer. Half of the previous the Actress honorees have made the Academy’s cut: winners Emma Stone (La La Land) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in addition to Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Cate Blanchett (Tár).

Keep checking the blog for rolling awards coverage!

97th Academy Awards Predictions: September 3rd Edition

You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.

Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.

The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.

Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.

The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.

Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).

In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.

The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.

You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)

7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)

12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)

13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)

15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)

19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)

20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)

21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)

22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)

25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Hard Truths

The End

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)

9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)

10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)

14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)

3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)

8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)

13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, We Live in Time

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)

4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)

5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)

9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)

14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)

15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)

4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)

10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Valeria Golino, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)

3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)

8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)

10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)

11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)

14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)

15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)

Dropped Out:

Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)

8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)

11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The End

Maria

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)

2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)

4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)

12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)

13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)

3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Evil Does Not Exist

Simon of the Mountain

Uprising

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)

3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)

5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)

8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Most Precious of Cargoes

Transformers One

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)

4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)

7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Union

Gaucho Gaucho

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)

4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)

9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Conclave

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)

5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)

3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)

9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

A Complete Unknown

Queer

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)

3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)

5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Blitz

Sasquatch Sunset

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nosferatu

Here

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)

7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wicked

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)

7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Queer

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)

5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)

9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

A Quiet Place: Day One

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)

3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)

4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)

And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Dune: Part Two

9 Nominations

Blitz

8 Nominations

Emilia Pérez

7 Nominations

The Brutalist

6 Nominations

Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing

5 Nominations

Anora, Conclave

4 Nominations

Nosferatu

3 Nominations

A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night

2 Nominations

Maria, A Real Pain

1 Nomination

Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper

Oscar Predictions: Babygirl

Dutch filmmaker Halina Reijn follows up 2022’s Bodies Bodies Bodies (which had its ardent admirers and vocal detractors) with the sultry thriller Babygirl. The A24 release, slated for a domestic bow on Christmas, has been unveiled at the Venice Film Festival. Nicole Kidman stars as a CEO in a May-December romance. The supporting players include Harris Dickinson (soon to be seen in Steve McQueen’s awards hopeful Blitz), Antonio Banderas, and Sophie Wilde.

Kidman, a five-time nominee who won Actress for 2001’s The Hours, is receiving her share of solid ink. The RT score for the picture itself is at 85% though reviews indicate more reactions might be mixed. Babygirl‘s only real shot at Academy attention is with the veteran headliner. A24 went 0 for 2 in their campaigns last year for Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla) and competition appears significant already for the 97th broadcast.

I wouldn’t totally discount Kidman’s chances to make a run, but the odds are probably just fair. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

It’s been a rough cinematic 2023 for DC Studios with flops Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle. Over this Christmas weekend, early numbers indicate that their latest Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom may be another entry that opens below expectations. Jason Wan returns to direct his sequel to the 2018 blockbuster with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Costars include Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Randall Park, Dolph Lundgren, Temuera Morrison, Martin Short (!), and Nicole Kidman.

The review embargo lifted on Thursday – the day of its unveiling in multiplexes. That’s usually not a good sign and that proved true with an underwater Rotten Tomatoes rating of 36%. Its predecessor managed 65%.

The 2018 original came up empty-handed in the awards space and didn’t make the 10 picture shortlist for Visual Effects. This sequel popped up on the first 20 contenders for VE. However, when the whittled down list of 10 were revealed Thursday, Lost was nowhere to be found. The fourth DCU offering of the year will share the same number of Academy nods as the first three: none. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom Box Office Prediction

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom hopes to rescue a troubling 2023 for the DCU when it opens December 22nd. Following up on the 2018 original, James Wan returns to direct with Jason Momoa back in the title role. Patrick Wilson, Amber Heard, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, and Nicole Kidman costar.

With a reported budget of $215 million, the sequel needs solid domestic and overseas grosses to stay above water. That could be a challenge. The DCU has seen its share of flops this year including Shazam! Fury of the Gods, The Flash, and Blue Beetle.

The superhero’s first adventure five years ago ended up making an impressive $335 million stateside and $1.1 billion worldwide. It exceeded expectations, but Kingdom could fall under or just match them.

With Christmas on a Monday, I’m projecting a Friday to Monday number. Aquaman also came out on the big holiday weekend and Christmas was on a Tuesday. It took in $105 million in its first five days. This one might be fortunate to gross about half of that during its first four. I’m saying it won’t.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $42.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Migration prediction, click here:

Migration Box Office Prediction

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

The Iron Claw Box Office Prediction

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

Anyone but You Box Office Prediction

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

Poor Things Box Office Prediction

For my The Color Purple prediction, click here:

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

Ferrari Box Office Prediction

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

The Boys in the Boat Box Office Prediction

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Zone of Interest

Jonathan Glazer takes his time between projects. Holocaust drama The Zone of Interest is his fourth feature in two decades plus. Starting out as a commercial and music video maker, his 2000 debut was the acclaimed Sexy Beast which earned Ben Kingsley a Supporting Actor nod. Follow-up Birth in 2004 nabbed Nicole Kidman an Actress nom at the Golden Globes in Actress (Drama). Glazer’s third effort Under the Skin from 2013 with Scarlett Johansson wasn’t an Oscar or Globes player, but the sci-fi pic garnered plenty of rapturous reviews.

A decade later, Interest may well put him in an awards zone beyond the actors he’s directing. Based on a 2014 novel by Martin Amis, the cast is led by Sandra Hüller, Christian Friedel, Medusa Knopf, and Daniel Holzberg.

Chilling is a word I’ve seen used to describe Zone in more than one write-up coming out of the Cannes debut. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% thus far. Hüller, recipient of various nominations in Europe for 2016’s Toni Erdmann, is drawing raves for her performance as the wife of Friedel’s concentration camp commandant.

With the right marketing push from A24 (and I think we can assume they’ll make a dedicated one), this should be a potential contender for Picture, Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, and Cinematography. International Feature Film might be a given. If it truly resonates with voters, other down-the-line races like Film Editing and Score and Sound could be in the mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…