Tag: New York Film Festival

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 23rd Edition

We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.

We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.

In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.

As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?

You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

The Secret Agent

The Testament of Ann Lee

The Rivals of Amziah King

Blue Moon

Is This Thing On?

Anemone

The Voice of Hind Rajib

After the Hunt

Weapons

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)

7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib

Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King

Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt

Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Miles Caton, Sinners

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon

Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Sean Bean, Anemone

Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)

8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

The Testament of Ann Lee

After the Hunt

Father Mother Sister Brother

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Highest 2 Lowest

Nouvelle Vague

The Smashing Machine

Hedda

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Love That Remains

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Below the Clouds

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

F1

Bugonia

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Hedda

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD

2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD

5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)

5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Lost Bus

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Hamnet, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Cover-Up

Cover-Up explores the work of journalist and Pulitzer Prize recipient Seymour Hersh and it’s playing a foursome of festivals that began with Venice and continues with Telluride, Toronto, and New York. Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus direct with stateside distribution pending.

Poitras is no stranger to the awards mix for her documentaries. Citizenfour, focused on Edward Snowden, was the 2015 Oscar winner in Doc Feature. 2022’s All the Beauty and the Bloodshed took top prize at Venice (the Golden Lion) but was snubbed by the Academy.

Rotten Tomatoes for Cover-Up is at 100% and certainly reaction is laudatory enough for this to contend at the 98th Academy Awards. Whether the unpredictable branch for the genre put it on their shortlist remains to be seen, but this is one to keep in mind for inclusion. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Awards prospects for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere are no longer a complete unknown now that it has premiered at Telluride prior to its October 24th domestic bow. Chronicling the making of his 1982 album Nebraska during a tumultuous personal period, Jeremy Allen White headlines as the legendary Boss in the Scott Cooper directed effort. Jeremy Strong (as longtime manager Jon Landau), Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron, and David Krumholtz costar.

As reviews trickle in from Colorado, some common themes have emerged. Critics are praising its focus on a particular time in Springsteen’s legendary career and avoiding musical biopic cliches. Word-of-mouth indicates this could fare well with Academy voters like last year’s Bob Dylan centered A Complete Unknown. That includes viability in Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and down-the-line races like Casting, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and certainly Sound. Cooper probably is a long shot for his direction though it is worth noting that James Mangold was a bit of a surprise nominee for Unknown.

As for the performances, White (a two-time Emmy winner for The Bear) seems poised for his first Oscar recognition. In the supporting derbies, it sounds like Strong is the better bet over Graham. Prognosticators have been wondering who would emerge between the two. If the Succession thespian makes the Supporting Actor quintet, it would be his second nom in a row after last year’s The Apprentice. While Odessa Young is being singled out in some write-ups, I doubt she materializes in Supporting Actress. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: After the Hunt

While Bugonia and Jay Kelly have at least kept their Best Picture chances intact at the Venice Film Festival, it could be a different story for Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt. The #MeToo themed psychological thriller is playing out of competition at the Italian fest prior to its October 10th release. Julia Roberts, Andrew Garfield, Ayo Edebiri, Michael Stuhlbarg, and Chloë Sevigny make up the ensemble.

Early reviews have it at just 50% on Rotten Tomatoes and 56 on Metacritic. There was hope this could be the filmmaker’s strongest awards play since Call Me by Your Name (2017). The initial word-of-mouth certainly dilutes that notion.

Where could this still be viable? Even some middling to negative reviews indicate performance of Ms. Roberts is impressive enough to warrant a fifth nomination (she won in 2000 for Erin Brockovich). It will fascinating to monitor whether the overall general reaction will doom a potential first nod since 2013’s August: Osage County. The score by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could be noticed. As for other categories, Garfield and Edebiri (who I’ve predicted in the supporting fields for weeks) look more vulnerable than Hunt‘s leading lady. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

  1. In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
  2. In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
  3. In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
  4. A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

F1

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

Will the Bob Dylan Movie Electrify Oscar Voters?

The past few days for awards prognosticators like me have been eventful as the Venice and Toronto Film Festival have unveiled their lineups. Many of the expected 2024 heavy hitters have confirmed their premieres up north and across the ocean. That includes Conclave, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nightbitch, The End, Hard Truths, and The Room Next Door to name a few. The NY Festival features Nickel Boys as its debut screening while Blitz will play London.

None of that information is particularly surprising. There was a rather unexpected development today courtesy of Fox Searchlight. The studio premiered the first look at their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown and announced a release date of December. Directed by James Mangold, Timothée Chalamet stars as the legendary folk singer and the Dune/Wonka actor does his own crooning that you can hear in the trailer.

So will the picture be a golden ticket for Oscar attention? The December drop would indicate that Fox thinks so. Mangold is no stranger to this genre as he made 2005’s Walk the Line with Joaquin Phoenix as Johnny Cash. He was nominated for Best Actor while Reese Witherspoon won Actress as June Carter Cash. Chalamet has been killing it lately at the box office, but his sole Academy nom was for 2017’s Call Me by Your Name (losing to Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour). This is obviously a high profile turn and he joins an Actor competition that is quite unclear. Only one thing seems certain(ish) and that’s Colman Domingo making the final five for the acclaimed Sing Sing. Since I started my forecasts in May, there’s been two other performers I’ve had slotted in the quintet: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) and Daniel Craig (Queer). We’ll know soon enough if they are legit contenders. The other two spots have fluctuated between hopefuls like Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man), John David Washington (The Piano Lesson), and Glen Powell (Hit Man). And we can’t discount Mr. Phoenix for his second stint as Joker.

I do suspect that Chalamet will materialize in my top 5 for recognition when I update my predictions in the coming days. Where else could Unknown get in? Well, there’s Best Picture and Mangold’s direction. Walk the Line missed the cut for BP nearly 20 years ago. If there were 10 nominees back then like there is now, it probably would’ve gotten in. Mangold is a well-respected filmmaker with varied works including Cop Land, Girl, Interrupted, Logan, and Ford v Ferrari. While his co-scripting of Logan gave him an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s never received a directing mention.

Walk the Line did nab three other noms for Costume Design, Film Editing, and Sound Mixing. All three of those (though Sound is now just Sound since it combined Sound Mixing and Sound Editing) could be Unknown inclusions. Adapted Screenplay is also a possibility.

As for the rest of the cast, we simply don’t know if Edward Norton as Pete Seeger, Elle Fanning as Sylvie Russo, or Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez are substantial enough for supporting recognitions. I would anticipate at least Fanning being listed as a possibility in my next update.

Fox Searchlight also has Nightbitch and A Real Pain as awards bait releases. The former is mostly being discussed for Amy Adams and an Actress nod (where I currently have her ranked #1). The latter is seen as a vehicle for a Kieran Culkin Supporting Actor try (where I have him ranked fourth). Both could be in the BP mix. However, on paper, A Complete Unknown might be Fox’s most electrifying prospect. This is, of course, a complete unknown until it screens. We do now that it’ll be in this cycle.

Oscar Predictions: The Delinquents

The three-hour heist dramedy The Delinquents from Argentina premiered at Cannes and has been traveling the fest circuit (Toronto, New York) since. From writer/director Rodrigo Moreno, it stars Daniel Elias and Esteban Bigliardi and is out in limited release this week.

Argentina has seen four of their efforts make the International Feature Film five in the 21st century: 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), 2014’s Wild Tales, and last year’s Argentina, 1985 (which may well have been runner-up to All Quiet on the Western Front).

With an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating, don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist in IFF. I’m more skeptical this becomes the fifth Argentinian entry to make the final cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

2023 Oscar Predictions: October 3rd Edition

The September triumvirate of high profile festivals (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) is in the rearview mirror. The New York Film Festival is happening now though there’s not a huge number of pictures that didn’t already premiere at earlier fests. One that did – Garth Davis’s Foe – proved to be an awards bust. With a 21% Rotten Tomatoes score, you can assume this is the last time it will be mentioned in these prediction posts.

Truth be told, there are just a few Oscar bait titles left to screen. They include The Color Purple, Napoleon, Disney’s Wish, The Iron Claw, and Wonka (in some tech races).

I thought this might be an opportune time to tell you how my 2022 predictions from this same time of year stood up. Last year, when I did forecasts for the 95th Academy Awards on October 5th, it yielded an impressive 8 of the eventual nominees (winner Everything Everywhere All at Once, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking). The other two nominees (Avatar: The Way of Water and Elvis) were both listed in other possibilities.

For Best Director, I correctly called three of the five (winners the Daniels for Everything Everywhere, Todd Field for Tár, Steven Spielberg with The Fabelmans). Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Rüben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) were identified as other possibilities.

The #3 also applied to Actress as I named winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everything) along with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans). Ana de Armas (Blonde) was tagged under other possibilities while Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) was not yet on the radar screen. Same goes for Best Actor (3) where I had winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Bill Nighy (Living) in othjer possibilities. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was outside of the top ten.

In the supporting derbies, my 2022 early October projections gave you only two of the eventual five in Supporting Actress with Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Hong Chau (The Whale). Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere) was an other possibility. The winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere) was not yet in my listed ten nor was fellow nominee Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever). For Supporting Actor, I correctly had three with winner Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere) and Banshees costars Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) was in other possibilities while Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) had not entered my mix.

Whew. For those keeping score, that means I predicted 22 of the 35 movies, directors, and actors in those six races at this same juncture in 2022.

My first October projections contain a few alterations from my final September write-up. As much as I don’t like taking Toronto’s People’s Choice Award victor American Fiction out of my BP lineup, I’m doing so with The Zone of Interest back in that list. On the same note, Zone‘s filmmaker Jonathan Glazer returns to my directing quintet with Celine Song (Past Lives) on the outside looking in.

Greta Lee (Past Lives) jumps back in Actress with Margot Robbie (Barbie) omitted. However, Lee’s costar John Magaro is dropped from Supporting Actor in favor of Charles Melton (May December).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Color Purple (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Past Lives (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Maestro (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Zone of Interest (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. American Fiction (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Air (PR: 12) (E)

13. Napoleon (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 14) (E)

15. Origin (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 6) (E)

7. Celine Song, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Greta Lee, Past Lives (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple (PR: 6) (E)

7. Margot Robbie, Barbie (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Annette Bening, Nyad (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Natalie Portman, May December (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeffrey Wright, Amerian Fiction (PR: 6) (E)

7. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers (PR: 7) (E)

8. Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Anthony Hopkins, Freud’s Last Session (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (PR: 2) (E)

3. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Viola Davis, Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari (PR: 6) (E)

7. Julianne Moore, May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jodie Foster, Nyad (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (PR: 8) (-1)

10. America Ferrera, Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Charles Melton, May December (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (PR: 6) (E)

7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. John Magaro, Past Lives (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 1) (E)

2. Past Lives (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Holdovers (PR: 3) (E)

4. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 4 ) (E)

5. Air (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maestro (PR: 6) (E)

7. May December (PR: 7) (E)

8. Asteroid City (PR: 8) (E)

9. Fair Play (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Saltburn (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Oppenheimer (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Fiction (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of Us Strangers (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Zone of Interest (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Hit Man (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Origin (PR: 9) (E)

10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Zone of Interest (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Taste of Things (PR: 2) (E)

3. Perfect Days (PR: 3) (E)

4. About Dry Grasses (PR: 5) (-1)

5. Fallen Leaves (PR: 4) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Society of the Snow (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Settlers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Delinquents (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Promised Land (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Teachers’ Lounge

Io capitano

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nimona (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Peasants (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suzume

Robot Dreams

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Beyond Utopia (PR: 1) (E)

2. 20 Days in Mariupol (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Stamped from the Beginning (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Eternal Memory (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Every Body (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Mother of All Lies (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Orlando, My Political Biography (PR: 5) (-3)

9. It Ain’t Over (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Deepest Breath (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

American Symphony

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Maestro (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Zone of Interest (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Killer (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Color Purple (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Barbie (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Asteroid City

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Color Purple (PR: 3) (E)

4. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Chevalier (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Napoleon (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Asteroid City (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Priscilla (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Oppenheimer (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wonka (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Maestro

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Poor Things (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Maestro (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Air (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Holdovers (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ferrari (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Anatomy of a Fall (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Poor Things (PR: 1) (E)

2. Maestro (PR: 2) (E)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 3) (E)

4. Barbie (PR: 4) (E)

5. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Priscilla (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Color Purple (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Beau is Afraid (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Golda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nyad (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Oppenheimer

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elemental (PR: 3) (E)

4. Past Lives (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Killer (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Poor Things (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Napoleon (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Boy and the Heron (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ferrari (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Barbie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Asteroid City

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from The Color Purple (PR: 1) (E)

2. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Road to Freedom” from Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. “The Wish” from Wish (PR: 4) (E)

5. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Joan Still” from Theater Camp (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “Dance the Night” from Barbie (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “Gonna Be You” from 80 for Brady (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Peaches” from The Super Mario Bros. Movie (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“High Life” from Flora and Son

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Barbie (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Poor Things (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Oppenheimer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Asteroid City (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Color Purple (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Napoleon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Maestro (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saltburn (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Wonka

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ferrari (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Napoleon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Color Purple (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Creator (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Barbie (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Zone of Interest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Maestro (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Killer

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Oppenheimer (PR: 1) (E)

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Creator (PR: 3) (E)

4. Napoleon (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Rebel Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Poor Things (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Barbie (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 8) (-2)

That means I’m projecting these movies will garner these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

6 Nominations

The Color Purple, Maestro

5 Nominations

Past Lives

4 Nominations

The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

Air, Elemental, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Napoleon, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish

1 Nomination

About Dry Grasses, All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Asteroid City, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, Chevalier, The Creator, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, The Killer, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Rebel Moon, Stamped from the Beginning, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, The Taste of Things, 20 Days in Mariupol

Oscar Predictions: Foe

There’s an impressive array of Oscar players involved with Foe, the sci-fi thriller that premiered at the New York Film Festival over the weekend. It’s out next weekend via Amazon Studios. Garth Davis directed the 2016 drama Lion, which scored six nominations including Best Picture. Saoirse Ronan is a four-time acting hopeful (supporting for Atonement and lead for Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women). Costar Paul Mescal made the Best Actor quintet last year for Aftersun.

Yet the Big Apple fest resulted in non-fruitful buzz for Foe. With 10 reviews up, the Rotten Tomatoes score is a troubling 10% (yes, that’s one fresh). Despite the pedigree, do not expect this to find any friends in the voting branch of the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sr.

Sr. refers to Robert Downey Sr. and it recounts his directing and acting career in addition to his final years (he passed last summer). Best known for the underground 1969 satire Putney Swope, the film streams on Netflix December 2nd. His very famous son also appears in the documentary from Chris Smith, maker of 2019’s buzzy Fyre.

After a premiere at Telluride in September, Sr. also played the New York Film Festival. Early reviews are solid across the board with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Netflix always has docs to campaign for at Oscar time. Their biggest hopeful might be Descendant, but they’ll likely promote this one too (especially with the high profile Hollywood connection and Downey Jr. making the rounds).

I’ve had Sr. in and out of my top ten of possibilities in Doc Feature, but not yet in the high five. We’ll see if it manages to rise in the coming weeks. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…