Oscar Predictions: Shirley

In 2018, Regina King was a Supporting Actress victor at the Oscars for If Beale Street Could Talk. Her latest project, at least on paper, appears to be another hopeful. In the biographical drama Shirley (not to be confused with 2020’s same titled biographical drama with Elisabeth Moss), King portrays Shirley Chisholm, the first African-American woman to run for President in 1972. Depicting that time in her life, John Ridley (an Academy winner for penning 2013’s 12 Years a Slave) directs with a supporting cast including the late Lance Reddick, Terrence Howard, Lucas Hedges, Brian Stokes Mitchell, and André Holland. The film is out in limited release this weekend before its March 22nd Netflix premiere.

Early reviews are mostly complimentary while none are really raves. The RT score is 78%. Any thoughts of this being a BP contender can go away (the release date kind of clued us into that). Unsurprisingly, King is being highly praised. I just question whether this will be in the minds of voters several months down the road. Netflix will need to keep her busy on the campaign trail for any possibility of a second nom. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Damsel

As we await the final season of Stranger Things and a third Enola Holmes tale, Millie Bobby Brown’s Netflix adventures continue this weekend in Damsel. The fantasy comes from Juan Carlos Fresnadillo, best known for making zombie sequel 28 Weeks Later. Brown headlines with a supporting cast including Ray Winstone, Angela Bassett, Brooke Carter, Nick Robinson, Robin Wright, and Shohreh Aghdashloo voicing a dragon.

Reviews are of the mixed variety at 59% on RT. The genre can lead to certain tech nods. However, some of the criticism is directed toward the CGI and visual effects appears to be a non-starter. I doubt Netflix will stress Damsel in any awards campaign months down the road. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Spaceman

Johan Renck’s Spaceman is not – I repeat, not – about the doctor that Chris Parnell hilariously played on 30 Rock. The sci-fi drama does star a fellow SNL alumni in Adam Sandler as a Czech astronaut on a solo mission. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this week, hits theaters in limited fashion this weekend, and premieres on Netflix March 1st. Costars include Carey Mulligan (currently vying for Best Actress in Maestro), Paul Dano (doing voiceover work), Kunal Nayyar, Lena Olin, and Isabella Rossellini.

Sandler’s serious work has probably come close to making the Academy’s cut with 2019’s Uncut Gems or 2022’s Hustle which earned him a SAG nod. I don’t think you’ll see Spaceman launch him into consideration. The RT score is a mixed 64% with some reviews calling it a bore. Others are far more complimentary, but not to the degree that I think that generates any awards buzz. The lone exception could be Visual Effects. I’m not confident in that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

Oscars: The Case of Annette Bening in Nyad

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at the Actress quintet and it starts with Annette Bening in Nyad. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Grifters (1990, Supporting Actress); American Beauty (1999, Actress), Being Julia (2004, Actress), The Kids Are All Right (2010, Actress)

The Case for Annette Bening:

SAG and Globe nominations preceded this, but Bening’s potential ace in the hole could be the overdue factor. While costar Jodie Foster (up for Supporting Actress) is a two-time Oscar recipient, Bening is 0 for 4.

The Case Against Annette Bening:

She’s swimming upstream for the victory with Nyad. The picture itself is not an awards player beyond its two leads. Bening missed the cut at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Emma Stone (Poor Things) vs. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) appears to be the showdown for the gold.

The Verdict:

The strong likelihood is Bening will be 0 for 5 come March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with our first write-up in Actor. That’s Bradley Cooper in Maestro…

Oscar Predictions: Orion and the Dark

Orion and the Dark is streaming as of today on Netflix. Produced by DreamWorks Animation and marking the directorial debut of Sean Charmatz, the animated fantasy deals with themes of existentialism and fear. This is not too surprising considering the script comes from Charlie Kaufman, adapting Emma Yarlett’s children’s book. The voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Colin Hanks, Paul Walter Hauser, Angela Bassett, Ike Barinholtz, Natasia Demetriou, Nat Faxon, Carla Gugino, and Werner Herzog.

Kaufman is no stranger to the genre. He wrote and directed 2015’s Anomalisa. That critically acclaimed effort was up for Animated Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Pixar’s Inside Out. Netflix knows how to get their animated material awards attention. Recent nominees include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Sea Beast, the victorious Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and Nimona.

Orion is getting a warm reception so far with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. We don’t know yet what this category’s landscape will look like several months down the road. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the chances for this to make it in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP lineup. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Bradley Cooper’s Maestro.

The Case for Maestro:

Marking the filmmaker’s second behind the camera effort after 2018’s A Star is Born, the Leonard Bernstein biopic landed BP nods at Critics Choice and the Globes. Cooper and costar Carey Mulligan have been a fixture in the lead acting derbies. Its seven total nominations matched and arguably even exceeded expectations. The other nods (Star managed one better at 8): the aforementioned Cooper and Mulligan in their respective races, Original Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Sound.

The Case Against Maestro:

It hasn’t won any of those BP competitions. The 80% Rotten Tomatoes score is actually the lowest of the ten hopefuls. BAFTA didn’t recognized it for Best Film. There were key misses in Director (just as Cooper missed that category for Star five years back) and Film Editing.

The Verdict:

Maestro has a solid chance at taking Makeup and Hairstyling. Everything else looks questionable and BP looks totally out of reach.

My Case Of posts will continue with Oppenheimer…

Oscar Predictions: The Greatest Night in Pop

Before its January 29th bow on Netflix, Bao Nyugen’s The Greatest Night in Pop got its screening night at Sundance. Nguyen, who helmed the Bruce Lee centered Be Water, chronicles the historic recording of 1985’s famine relief track “We Are the World”. The doc features interviews with some of the participants including cowriter Lionel Richie, Bruce Springsteen, Cyndi Lauper, and preeminent 80s soundtrack (Caddyshack, Footloose, Over the Top, Top Gun) crooner Kenny Loggins.

Early word-of-mouth from Utah (not enough yet for an RT score) indicates this is an appealing enough watch. The buzz doesn’t seem strong enough to turn this into an awards contender though I’m sure nostalgia buffs will happily stream it at the end of the month. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Love Me

The stars of Love Me have had some awards exposure in recent days and years. Kristen Stewart nabbed her first Oscar nom for Spencer in 2021 while Steven Yeun just picked up an Emmy for Netflix’s acclaimed limited series Beef. They headline the two-hander post-apocalyptic drama Love Me from sibling auteurs Sam and Andy Zuchero. Yet after screening at Sundance, critics aren’t exactly digging the project.

The AI romance only has 38% at press time on Rotten Tomatoes. As far as features with potential Academy prospects screening in Park City, it is safe to write this off as it seeks distribution. Considering the two leads, Love should have no trouble finding it despite the reviews. Don’t expect awards love. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…