The Lost Daughter Finds Gotham Love

The Gotham Awards, which honors independent pictures, held its annual ceremony tonight with category shifts, surprises, and ties. The NYC based event is not exactly seen as a reliable barometer of what will happen at the Oscars. However, it’s worth noting that since the Best Feature category was established in 2004, there’s only been three years (2007, 2008, 2018) in which none of the nominees made the Academy’s Best Picture cut. Four recent Gotham winners (Birdman, Spotlight, Moonlight, and last year’s Nomadland) ended up being the Oscar selection.

In 2021, none of the five nominees for the big race were listed in my latest Oscar estimates. In fact, none of the quintet were in my top 15 possibilities. That would be going against the grain for what Gotham typically produces and the big winner tonight is undoubtedly Maggie Gyllenhaal’s directorial debut The Lost Daughter (which hits theaters on December 17 and Netflix on New Years Eve). The psychological drama took the top prize over The Green Knight, Passing, Pig, and Test Pattern. I only foresee Daughter and Passing as having viable paths to a Best Pic nod and the former’s victory here gives it more exposure.

In addition to Best Feature, Daughter was honored for Breakthrough Director and Screenplay. I am confident an Adapted Screenplay nod from the Academy is coming its way.

As for those category shifts, the Gothams chose to eliminate gender distinction in the lead acting derbies. Yet, ironically, there was a tie bestowing the award for a male and female. That provided another statue for Daughter and its lead Olivia Colman (as her Best Actress chances are looking stronger each day). The male was a surprise with character actor Frankie Faison for The Killing of Kenneth Chamberlain. You may know him best as orderly Barney in The Silence of the Lambs, but his lead role here got him attention over Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). I wouldn’t count on Academy members taking notice.

This is the first year in which Gotham had a supporting race (also gender neutral) and it went to Troy Kotsur in CODA. This will feels a bit more significant as the scene stealer won over stellar competition like his costar Marlee Matlin and Ruth Negga in Passing. In an Oscar year where Supporting Actor is wide open, awards like this could propel Kotsur to make the final cut.

Elsewhere Flee took Documentary (it’s a likely shoo-in with the Academy) while Drive My Car helped its case in the foreign race over Titane and The Worst Person in the World. 

Bottom line: Daughter found a precursor in Gotham that should raise the profile as the Oscar folks are starting to pay attention.

Oscar Predictions: The Summit of the Gods

The French language animated effort The Summit of the Gods premiered at the Cannes Film Festival this summer and is in limited release prior to its Netflix bow on November 30th. From director Patrick Imbert, Summit is based on a Japanese manga series and is receiving praise from critics across the board with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.

The mountaineering tale set around Mount Everest could be a trendy spoiler pick to make the five selections competing for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It’s certainly doable, but it will need to climb past several other viable contenders. Disney has three potential hopefuls with Encanto, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon. Foreign competitors Flee and Belle may both make the cut and Netflix also has The Mitchells vs. the Machines. 

That competition makes it a challenge for Summit‘s inclusion, but the solid reviews could assist in nabbing it a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sing 2

Sing 2 is likely to make loud box office noises when it’s released December 22nd. The sequel to the animated musical comedy arrives five years after the original took in $270 million domestically. From Illumination Entertainment, Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. Newbies include Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, and Bono.

Despite part one being a smash hit, it did not manage to nab a Best Animated Feature nod. The first Sing achieved a decent 71% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s just a handful of reviews out for the follow-up and it’s currently lower at 60%.

With a trio of Disney efforts (Encanto, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon), two Netflix properties (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Summit of the Gods), and acclaimed foreign features Flee and Belle all in the mix, Animated Feature is already crowded. I don’t foresee a sequel to something that couldn’t get in the first time around being viable.

In Best Original Song, a band that Bono started that you might be familiar with (U2) has “Your Song Saved My Life”. This is another category with plenty of high profile contenders (Beyonce and Billie Eilish among them). Bono and his mates probably won’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Unforgivable

Out in theaters today before its Netflix premiere on December 10th is The Unforgivable from director Nora Fingscheidt. A remake of the 2009 British miniseries Unforgiven, Sandra Bullock stars as a convicted felon adjusting to life on the outside. Costars include Vincent D’Onofrio, Jon Bernthal, Rob Morgan, and Viola Davis.

On paper, this looks like the type of role that could muster up awards chatter for Bullock. She’s a two-time nominee and one time winner, taking the gold 12 years ago for The Blind Side and nabbing a nod for 2013’s Gravity. However, the drama skipped the fall’s festival circuit and it’s been flying under the radar during the season.

Now we might know why. Early reviews aren’t very kind and it stands at 36% on Rotten Tomatoes. While some critics are praising her performance, the Best Actress competition is crowded already. Netflix might attract plenty of viewers (Bullock’s previous effort for the streamer was the hit Bird Box). I’m confident that we will not be blindsided by a nomination for its lead on the morning of nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Don’t Look Up

Up until the last couple of weeks, I’ve had Adam McKay’s political satire Don’t Look Up on the outskirts of my predicted 10 Best Picture nominees. After all, just how many Netflix contenders will get in? I figured The Power of the Dog would be their main play and there’s other possibilities with Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Lost Daughter, and Passing. 

I recently vaulted it into the fold of ten and (better late than never), that appears to be the right call. Before its eagerly awaited December 10th limited bow in theaters and Christmas Eve Netflix premiere, Up has screened for critics. The social media reaction is leaning toward the positive with particular shoutouts for certain elements and performers.

The star-studded cast is filled with previous Oscar winners and nominees: Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Jonah Hill, Mark Rylance, Timothee Chalamet, Cate Blanchett, and Meryl Streep. There’s also Rob Morgan, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, Ariana Grande, Kid Cudi, Chris Evans, Matthew Perry, and Himesh Patel.

McKay’s last two pics (2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice) were both up in the biggest race of all. His original screenplay detailing the end of the world should be recognized. I’m not as confident he’ll make it for directing though I will note that he made the cut for the previous two and it’s certainly feasible. While Dog may continue to be the Netflix flick I rank higher when I update my forecast Sunday, I don’t see Up moving down the charts and out of the 10.

As for the massive list of performers, the early word is that Leo could vie for his seventh nod (his sole win came for 2015’s The Revenant). He still needs to get past other sturdy thespians. I do like his chances better tonight than I did earlier today. With Lawrence, Best Actress is overflowing with hopefuls and I doubt she lands #5. Ms. Streep is going for her 22nd trip to the dance. Her work as the President here is being mentioned in the laudatory tweets. Supporting Actress has got its share of contenders too, but betting against Meryl is always risky. Supporting Actor is wide open at the moment yet I’m skeptical about Hill or Rylance (or the many others). If Netflix goes all in on one of them, that dynamic could shift.

Surprisingly enough, its most assured nomination could come with Ariana Grande. Not for Supporting Actress (her part is said to be brief), but for her Original Song “Just Look Up”. Editing seems a safe bet as does Score and other down the line races like Sound and Visual Effects are possible.

Bottom line: it’s looking up for Don’t Look Up to get up to a handful of nominations. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Red Notice Review

Red Notice poaches from plenty of superior action comedies. It scrambles to find a consistent tone between being a parody of them and just being one of them. The trio of famous faces are hampered with their hastily written hardboiled characters. That’s what we get in this caper about thieves trying to retrieve Cleopatra’s blinged out eggs. And no matter how much I’ve liked Dwayne Johnson, Ryan Reynolds, and Gal Gadot elsewhere, this is an easy picture to pan.

Rawson Marshall Thurber teams with Johnson for the third time after Central Intelligence and Skyscraper (they’ve gotten progressively worse). As Special Agent John Hartley, he’s hot on the trail of master cat burglar and escape artist Nolan Booth (Reynolds). There’s a plan afoot to reunite the ancient Egyptian queen’s bejeweled artifacts for a $300 million payday, but the two end up working together to stop another lifter known as The Bishop (Gadot). In a competition for world’s best art thief, The Bishop seems to have a slight upper hand. She’s framed Hartley and led an Interpol agent (Ritu Aryu) to think he’s in cahoots with the endlessly quipping Booth.

The elusive third egg is in the possession of quirky arms dealer Scotto Voce (Chris Diamantopoulos) and the trio double and triple and quadruple cross one another in hopes of achieving their score. Booth and Bishop’s reasoning is money and pride. Hartley’s is to clear his name. The three leads should do their own name clearing after this utter misfire.

Like Deadpool, the screenplay (by the director) goes the self-referential route at times. This is mostly through Reynolds. Unlike his Wade Wilson, he’s not very funny and doesn’t have solid one-liners to ironically spew. Whistling the Indiana Jones theme while the pic serves as a pale comparison doesn’t qualify as clever. Johnson gets to briefly find himself in a jungle setting in the third act and I believe that’s contractually obligated nowadays. Gadot’s comedic skills were effective in Wonder Woman… at least the first one. They’re strained and forced here.

A decent caper needs a worthwhile twist or two. If you pay even a little attention to the characters actions, you’ll spot them coming way before their reveals. For having a reported $200 million up on the screen (the small one since Netflix bought it), there’s not one action sequence worthy of note or hilariously inspired bit to break the monotony. Red Notice hops all over the globe with its megastars and goes nowhere fast. The true robbery is two hours of watching them coast.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Watch: Procession

Procession debuts on Netflix this Friday after premiering to solid critical notices at the Telluride Film Festival in September. From documentarian Robert Greene, the pic focuses on a group of six Catholic priest abuse survivors and their therapeutic methods for recovery. With 17 reviews up on Rotten Tomatoes, the score is 100%.

Nearly each time I do a predictions post for a doc, I feel compelled to point out that this is an unpredictable branch of Academy voters. When the shortlist is announced on December 21st featuring the 15 pictures in contention for Documentary Feature, there are bound to be surprising omissions. Procession looks like one that should make the cut.

Whether it makes makes the final five is a bigger question. As of now, I believe three competitors (The Rescue, Flee, Summer of Soul) stand the best odds of getting in. There’s a slew of others vying for the other two spots and Procession certainly has the reviews it needs to fill it. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

 

Oscar Predictions: Bruised

Twenty years ago, Halle Berry made history as the first (and still only) African-American performer to win Best Actress at the Oscars for Monster’s Ball. It remains her only nomination from the Academy. On November 24 via Netflix, Berry stars in and makes her directorial debut with the sports drama Bruised. She plays a former MMA fighter who decides to step back in the ring. Costars include Shamier Anderson, Adan Canto, Sheila Atim, and Stephen McKinley Henderson.

Bruised held a screening this weekend at AFI Fest after a rough cut was shown last year at Toronto. Early reviews are of the so-so variety and any thoughts of it garnering nods behind Berry are a moot point. The question is: could Berry enter the Oscar ring again?

It would appear the answer is no. The word-of-mouth is simply not strong enough for her to have a puncher’s chance in an Actress race where several contenders will be duking it out. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Passing Review

Much of the drama in Rebecca Hall’s debut feature, based on a 1929 novel by Nella Larsen, is elevated by passing glances and comments overheard at gatherings. The term Passing refers to light skinned African-Americans who are deemed white to unsuspecting individuals. It’s a disguise that Clare Bellew (Ruth Negga) is living in and during the early moments of the picture, she has a chance encounter with Irene Redfield (Tessa Thompson). They are childhood friends who’ve lost touch and their reconnection leaves Irene bewildered. She’s never left Harlem and has married successful but weary doctor Brian (Andre Holland). Irene fills her days with civic duties and some nights entertaining an author (Bill Camp) who’s endeared himself to the black community (though perhaps not for purely endearing reasons).

While Irene seems to have a nice upper class life going in a 1920s era filled with despair, a closer look is warranted. Her marriage is bordering on loveless. The couple struggle with proper child rearing to their two boys in a subplot that’s barely there (it should have been either explored in greater detail or dropped altogether).

Clare’s sudden presence reminds Irene of some chinks in the armor of her perceived blissful existence. That goes both ways. Clare is married to a vocal racist (Alexander Skarsgard) who has no clue what lies beneath. She’s a free spirit whose wings appear to grow when placed back in familiar territory. One of the strengths with this screenplay is that Clare’s reaction to her bonds rekindling is unexpected. Instead of substantiating her choice to pass as Caucasian, it fills her with a longing to return to her roots. In doing so, a strange and often unclear romantic dynamic emerges between Clare, Irene, and Brian. Jealousies and frailties come to the forefront. And those passing glances and comments take on deeper meaning as time goes by. Irene’s perception of Clare soon turns as cold as the wintry night air while Brian’s has blown in a warmer and cozier direction.

This is a picture that sneaks up on you with how powerful it ultimately becomes. Hall, a fine actress recently seen in The Night House, has her own complicated and for years unknown racial history that surely influenced her delicate handling of the subject matter. The performances are terrific across the board. This is not a story that over explains character motivation and it’s sometimes up to Thompson and Negga in particular to convey what’s really cooking in this tinderbox of a stew. They achieve that mission and Hall’s filmmaking prowess (shot in black and white with an aspect ratio of its era) accentuates that. By the climax, we are presented potential outcomes that occur in a flash and you may find yourself pondering them far longer. It all passes for a richly rewarding experience.

***1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Tick, Tick… Boom!

Out in limited release tomorrow before its Netflix premiere on November 19, Tick, Tick… Boom! marks the long awaited big screen directorial debut of Lin-Manuel Miranda. The Hamilton sensation already has the EGT (Emmy, Grammy, Tony) in the EGOT (the O is for Oscar obviously) and he has multiple projects in 2021 to contend for it.

Tick is an adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s own autobiographical Off Broadway musical and features Andrew Garfield portraying the late creator of Rent. Having screened at the AFI Fest, reviews are trickling in. Some of the critical reaction is not overly gushing, but there’s enough praise that it could contend in multiple races. First and foremost is Best Actor with Garfield and I’m feeling more confident that he could snag one of the five spots. If so, it would mark his second nod five years after Hacksaw Ridge. His chances in lead, in my view, are greater than in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye. 

Garfield’s inclusion is the only competition where I’m relatively confident. That said, the Academy could fall for Miranda’s first foray behind the camera and that could open up Picture and maybe even Supporting Actor (where Robin de Jesus is generating some solid ink). I don’t look for much chatter for remaining supporting cast which includes Alexandra Shipp, Vanessa Hudgens, Judith Light, and Bradley Whitford. I’m also skeptical Adapted Screenplay comes into the mix, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Miranda’s strongest shot at his own nomination could come with another project: Disney’s upcoming animated Encanto in the Original Song derby. In the Heights, the reworking of his acclaimed play that faltered at the box office over the summer, has seen its prospects dim.

Bottom line: Garfield has likely played his way into Best Actor while attention elsewhere seems questionable. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…