Olivia Colman’s turn in Netflix’s The Lost Daughter is the second Case Of post for the five women competing for Best Actress. If you missed the first on Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, you can find it here:
It’s another hailed performance from the Oscar winner who surprisingly took to the podium three years back for The Favourite (upsetting frontrunner Glenn Close in The Wife). Colman gets her third nod in four years. In addition to the victory from 2018, she was nominated last year in supporting for The Father. She nabbed precursor attention at the Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Daughter performed decently with the Academy with Jessie Buckley receiving an unexpected spot in Supporting Actress and director Maggie Gyllenhaal’s being recognized for her adapted screenplay. Furthermore, Best Actress looks wide open and anything could happen.
The Case Against Olivia Colman:
Had Daughter managed a Best Picture slot, I might feel more confident in calling for a potential second trophy for Colman. That said, none of the five Actress’s films are in the big dance. Critics liked this better than general audiences judging from Rotten Tomatoes. In an unexpected twist, BAFTA did not include Colman. What gives me the most pause is that Colman is the most recent recipient – Jessica Chastain and Kristen Stewart (Spencer) have never won, Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) is a supporting winner from 13 years ago, and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) took Actress 19 years ago.
Previous Nominations: 2
The Favourite (2018 – Actress, WON); The Father (2020 – Supporting Actress)
The Verdict:
This is a tricky one and good luck figuring out Best Actress in 2021. The counterargument to the recency bias is that it didn’t hurt Frances McDormand (Nomadland) last year. However, that was a frontrunner for BP and that narrative doesn’t exist this time around. If Colman can get a win at SAG this weekend or Critics Choice later on, it increases her viability with the Academy. If not, I doubt she gets her second Oscar.
My Case Of posts will continue with Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog…
My Case Of posts for the upcoming Oscars brings us to our first contestant in Supporting Actress and that’s Jessie Buckley in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s Netflix drama The Lost Daughter.
The Case for Jessie Buckley:
She’s been an actress on the upswing especially since 2019’s Wild Rose earned her a BAFTA nod and some Academy chatter that never materialized. With recent appearances in other buzzy projects like I’m Thinking of Ending Things, HBO’s Chernobyl, and FX’s Fargo – Buckley could be exactly the kind of rising performer that the voters would honor.
The Case Against Jessie Buckley:
Buckley’s inclusion in the race was definitely a surprise and she got here without precursors like SAG, the Globes, and Critics Choice. Of the four acting derbies, this might be the easiest to predict and that’s for Ariana DeBose in West Side Story.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The glaring lack of precursors makes Buckley a major outsider with this first nomination. Luckily for her, it might not be her last.
The Case Of posts will continue with our first hopeful in Supporting Actor – Ciaran Hinds in Belfast…
Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is my ninth Case Of post covering the Best Picture nominees for the 2021 Academy Awards. If you missed the previous entries, you can access them here:
And it’s quite a case to be made. Last week, the Netflix period drama ruled Oscar nominations morning with an even better than expected 12 nods. It even garnered unexpected mentions in Sound and for Jesse Plemons in Supporting Actor (alongside his costars Benedict Cumberbatch, Kirsten Dunst, and Kodi Smit-McPhee). In doing so, Dog landed placements in all of the down the line races where a BP win is key: directing, performances, adapted screenplay, editing, and so forth. At the Golden Globes (where many were predicting a Belfast victory), it took Best Drama. It’s also been the beneficiary of numerous critics groups awards for Best Pic.
The Case Against The Power of the Dog:
Being the frontrunner doesn’t always pan out and we’ve seen it in three of the past five Oscars. Just ask La La Land (which lost to Moonlight in 2016), Roma (which fell to Green Book in 2018), and 1917 (which came up short to Parasite in 2019). Getting the most nominations also doesn’t mean you’re taking the big prize. Just ask Mank from last year. Or Joker two years ago. Or The Favourite or Roma from 2018.
The Verdict:
While the case against is somewhat persuasive, there’s no denying that Dog is unquestionably the favorite to win. Yet there’s compelling evidence that an upset is certainly feasible.
My Case Of posts will continue with West Side Story…
My Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees is down to our third entry and that’s Adam McKay’s end of the world black comedy Don’t Look Up. If you missed the first two covering Belfast and CODA, you can find them here:
The Netflix property has probably received more social media chatter and buzz than any of the other hopefuls (with the possible exception of Dune). The streaming numbers were said to be massive so it is certainly one of the most widely seen contenders. For McKay, it marks his third BP nominee in a row behind 2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice.
The Case Against Don’t Look Up:
That aforementioned chatter was definitely not all positive. Reviews were mixed and Up‘s 56% Rotten Tomatoes score is easily the worst of the lot (the next lowest is Nightmare Alley at 80%). While some viewers sang its praises, plenty more derided it. This also missed key races like Director and any of the actors involved (Leonardo DiCaprio was likely close but no cigar in Actor).
The Verdict:
Netflix could be well on its way to its inaugural BP statue and that would be for The Power of the Dog. Their other hopeful is too divisive to have a shot and its total of four nominations is on the low end of the scale.
Now that the nominations for 94th Academy Awards are out, I’m moving to the next phase of speculation. Welcome to my “Case Of” posts where I dive deeper into the contenders for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting categories.
Here’s how it works. Over the next few weeks before the March 27th ceremony airs, I’m doing individualized entries for the 35 hopefuls in the aforementioned races. With each one, I’ll make the best case for the movie or person winning as well as the case against them and a final verdict as I see it now.
It starts with the 10 BP nominees (alphabetically) before switching up between Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. We begin with Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast:
The Case for Belfast
For several weeks after its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, the Irish set coming of age tale and passion project from Branagh appeared to be out front in the BP derby. If Academy voters go with the feel good pic of the ten contenders, this could certainly come out on top (though it’s got competition with CODA and King Richard). Belfast had a decent showing on Tuesday morning with 7 nominations including key races like Director, Original Screenplay, and two supporting mentions for Judi Dench (surprisingly making the cut over costar Caitriona Balfe) and Ciaran Hinds.
The Case Against Belfast
The early buzz has waned a bit and much of that is due to The Power of the Dog. The Netflix drama amassed a better than expected 12 nods and is rightfully being called the frontrunner. Power has already shown early precursor love by winning Best Drama at the Golden Globes. And then there’s the categories where Belfast missed – Editing, Cinematography, and Production Design. This indicates that several Academy branches weren’t bowled over by it. Editing, in particular, is a major miss. It’s extremely rare for a BP winner not to make the final five for that one.
The Verdict
There’s certainly a path for Belfast to take the top prize and it likely sits at #2 behind Dog. However, I would say Dog is a heavy favorite and it might be hard for anything to overcome it.
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
Two major Oscar precursors dropped today and it’s a good day to be the Ricardos as Aaron Sorkin’s Lucy and Desi pic make the PGA’s top ten cut, as did Netflix’s musical Tick, Tick… Boom!
Here are your 10 PGA nominees:
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
That means I went 8 out of 10 for my projections. The general thinking (and one that I shared) is that 8 pictures were safe: Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, Dune, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, The Power of the Dog, West Side Story. That turned out to be accurate.
The real battle was for the last 2 spots and they went to Ricardos and Boom! PGA has a history of nominating moneymakers and that’s why I chose No Time to Die to make the list (others were putting Spider-Man: No Way Home in the mix). Neither did so and that might end discussions on whether either of them could make it with the Academy.
I also had House of Gucci getting in and its PGA omission decreases its viability in the Oscar BP derby. Other notables to miss include Drive My Car, The Lost Daughter, Nightmare Alley, and The Tragedy of Macbeth.
Truth be told – the PGA lineup could easily be the Oscar one. However, that is hardly ever the case and we’ll see how it shakes out when I update my predictions tomorrow.
It’s also true that the five contenders in the Directors Guild Awards rarely match the Oscars (usually it’s 4 out of five). My quintet of Academy hopefuls has stayed steady over recent weeks: Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza), Kenneth Branagh (Belfast), Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Steven Spielberg (Wet Side Story), and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
And that’s exactly the lineup that DGA revealed today. I went 4 of 5 because I had Adam McKay (Don’t Look Up) in over Anderson. A DGA nod could have helped others on the outside looking in like Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) or Joel Coen (Macbeth).
As I explained in my predictions yesterday, you have to go back to 2009 for the last year in which DGA/Oscar matched in Best Director. It could absolutely happen in 2021 and, unlike PGA, I may continue to project it that way.
As mentioned, look for my penultimate 2021 Oscar updates tomorrow!
When King Richard came out in November, the preceding reviews and buzz pointed to a likelihood in the Best Actor race for this year’s Oscars – Will Smith would be on his way to his first gold statue. Playing Richard Williams, patriarch of the family that gave us tennis royalty Venus and Serena Williams, the film provides us multiple Academy bait scenes for the actor.
Mr. Smith has gone to the Oscars before as a nominee. 20 years ago, he was up for Ali (where to lost to Denzel Washington in Training Day). 15 years back, he scored his second nod for The Pursuit of Happyness (coming up short to Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland).
This time around felt different. Obviously Smith is a beloved figure across the entertainment spectrum from movies to music to TV and he’s had blockbuster upon blockbuster in the last quarter century. Richard seemed like the right role for him to get that Oscar. Third time’s the charm.
That could still absolutely happen. In fact, I still have him ranked #1 in the Actor derby where he’s been perched for months. Yet I must admit, doubts are creeping in.
Why? A couple of reasons. First off, King Richard underwhelmed at the box office and that’s being kind. The sports drama has taken in less than $15 million. Part of the reason has to be due to its simultaneous release on HBO Max, but there’s no sugarcoating that it’s a subpar performance.
Secondly, there’s the rise of Benedict Cumberbatch in Netflix’s The Power of the Dog. The actor (who’s about to land his second nod after 2014’s The Imitation Game) is becoming the critical favorite and he’s picking up hardware from their associations. It also helps that Cumberbatch has been highly visible in 2021 with four pics (including financial behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home).
In that sense, the 2021 Best Actor race is starting to look like what we witnessed in 2020. As an aside, I do see this a two-person competition at the moment (though Andrew Garfield from Tick Tick, Boom! may have a remote shot). There’s a head vs. heart vibe emerging. Last year, the sentimental favorite was the late Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. The performance that was equally if not more hailed by critics came from Anthony Hopkins in The Father. And it was Hopkins who ultimately and somewhat surprisingly prevailed.
Could we see a repeat in 2021 and a slight upset by Cumberbatch over the favored Smith? Stay tuned…
My third post covering actors who had a memorable 2021 reaches yet another one who appeared in (SPOILER ALERT)…
Spider-Man: No Way Home, the MCU juggernaut that jumpstarted a box office suffering from nearly two years in the COVID era. It started with Benedict Cumberbatch and continued with Zendaya. Now we’re at Andrew Garfield.
His reprisal of his web slinging part is garnering retribution comments for his two stint as the superhero which drew mixed audience and critical reaction. Yet that’s not the primary reason for Garfield’s inclusion.
As playwright Jonathan Larson in Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Netflix musical drama Tick, Tick… Boom!, Garfield looks to nab his second Oscar nomination five years after Hacksaw Ridge. He will vie for the prize along with Mr. Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) and Will Smith for King Richard.
As televangelist Jim Bakker alongside Jessica Chastain in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Garfield earned further kudos for his embodiment of a real life figure.
Another Spidey actor whose work in other projects accuentated the 2021 output. My Year Of posts will continue…
Going into 2021, Zendaya had already collected an Emmy for her leading role on HBO’s Euphoria and was known to moviegoers for her parts in the Spider-Man franchise and The Greatest Showman. She is the subject of my second write-up for performers who had a meaningful 2021 and it’s no coincidence that she’s the second that appeared in Spider-Man: No Way Home (currently breaking all pandemic era box office records). The first was Benedict Cumberbatch… and we might not be done yet with Home costars.
Her inclusion isn’t just due to her onscreen (and apparently offscreen) pairing with Spidey himself, Tom Holland. The actress/singer began the year garnering Oscar chatter for the Netflix drama Malcolm & Marie with John David Washington. While she didn’t ultimately nab an Academy mention, she was on the Critics Choice Awards radar for her acclaimed performance.
By summertime, she lent her voice to Space Jam: A New Legacy (voicing Lola Bunny). Her involvement with Warner Bros/HBO Max continued in the fall with the long awaited sci-fi epic Dune. It looks to be her first picture that will achieve plenty of award nominations and the sequel is already lined up for 2023.
And, of course, she capped it all off with her third appearance as MJ in the massive MCU series. Zendaya expanded her reach in 2021 as her films reached plenty of homes this year. My Year of posts will continue…
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