Tag: Neon

March 22-24 Box Office Predictions

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire hopes to heat up the box office this weekend while Immaculate looks to bring in horror fans. My detailed prediction posts on the two newcomers can be accessed here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction
Immaculate Box Office Prediction

The fifth feature in the franchise, Empire will try to match or exceed the mid 40s earnings that 2016’s Ghostbusters and immediate predecessor Ghostbusters: Afterlife from 2021 achieved in their debuts. I have it a tad under in the low 40s for what will easily be a #1 start.

We are likely to witness a battle for second between holdovers Kung Fu Panda 4 and Dune: Part Two. I have each dipping in the mid to high 30s with the animated sequel barely edging the sci-fi sequel.

Immaculate is a genuine question mark. Neon’s supernatural fright fest stars Sydney Sweeney, who’s coming off the hot Anyone but You and also the cold Madame Web. It seems to be flying under the radar, but could over perform as the genre often does. My mid single digits take puts it firmly in fourth with the disappointing Arthur the King rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I think it will play out:

1. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $42.7 million

2. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million

4. Immaculate

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Arthur the King

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 15-17)

Kung Fu Panda 4 held the crown for the second weekend in a row with $30.1 million, right on target with my $30.6 million estimate. The two-week tally puts it over the century mark at $107 million as it continues to outpace part 3.

Dune: Part Two, as expected, had a nice hold in weekend #3 with $28.5 million. I was on pace with my $29.4 million forecast as its surpassed the double century mark with $204 million.

Mark Wahlberg’s canine tale Arthur the King failed to bring in audiences with only $7.6 million, well under my $12.5 million call. I’m expecting a sophomore drop over 50% this weekend.

Imaginary held better than I assumed with $5.5 million compared to my $4.4 million projection. The teddy bear themed horror pic stands at $19 million after two outings and that’s nearly double its budget.

Faith-based Cabrini plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $2.8 million and that’s below my $4.1 million prediction. The total is $13 million.

Finally, Kristen Stewart’s critically acclaimed crime thriller Love Lies Bleeding had a fairly anemic wide rollout in sixth with $2.4 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Babes

It sounds as if Neon has a potential sleeper on their hands with Babes at the box office and at awards shows. The comedy stars Ilana Glazer of Broad City as a happily single woman who unexpectedly gets pregnant in the directorial debut from Pamela Adlon. Costars include Michelle Buteau, John Carroll Lynch, Hasan Minjaj, Stephan James, and Oliver Platt.

A release date has yet to be finalized after its successful screening at South by Southwest. Reviews call this a raunchy and heartfelt winner and it sports a 100% RT rating.

Comedies in general face a tall task getting attention from the Academy and this should hold true with Babes. Original Screenplay (from Glazer and Josh Rainowitz) might be its only realistic shot. Other ceremonies could offer more possibilities. At the Golden Globes, the performances of Glazer and Buteau as Glazer’s BFF mom helping her navigate impending parenthood could be noticed in the Musical/Comedy derbies. Same goes for Best Musical/Comedy in general. At the Directors Guild competition, Adlon could make it in the First-Time Feature race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Immaculate Box Office Prediction

Sydney Sweeney is in Scream Queen mode when Immaculate is delivered to theaters on March 22nd. The fright fest finds the Euphoria, Anyone but You, and Madame Web star as a devout nun uncovering demonic happenings in the Italian countryside. Michael Mohan directs with a supporting cast including Álvaro Morte, Benedetta Porcaroli, Dora Romano, Giorgio Colangeli, and Simona Tabasco.

The Neon distributed effort is generating uneven reviews (it premiered at South by Southwest earlier this week). The RT meter stands at 64%. I haven’t seen a screen count and the marketing campaign seems a bit on the underwhelming side.

Horror can exceed expectations and that might hold true with Immaculate. Yet I wonder if this can manage the $9M+ that The Pope’s Exorcist achieved for its start last year. It might be lucky to earn half of that.

Immaculate opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire prediction, click here:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Box Office Prediction

Is Origin An Oscar Sleeper?

Last year, a late breaking Oscar campaign for Andrea Riseborough’s performance in the micro-budgeted drama To Leslie resulted in success. With various celebrities holding events touting her work, Riseborough nabbed one of the five slots in Actress (over favored competitors like Danielle Deadwyler in Till and Viola Davis in The Woman King). This resulted in both controversy and kudos for a unique way to campaign for gold hardware.

Now for the 96th Academy Awards, we have another midnight hour title raising eyebrows in the form of Selma director Ana DuVernay’s Origin. Based on Isabel Wilkerson’s nonfiction novel, the race relations drama premiered on the festival circuit early in the fall at Venice and Toronto. Some reviews were raves, but not all. An 80% Rotten Tomatoes score resulted and Neon picked up distribution rights. Its wide release comes this Friday.

That timing could come in handy. However, Origin hasn’t been seen as a true threat for Picture, Adapted Screenplay, or Actress. Yet there’s been some noteworthy activity over the past week. Angelina Jolie hosted an FYC event with DuVernay and the film’s lead Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (nominated for Supporting Actress in 2021 for King Richard). Today the USC Scripter nods for Adapted Screenplay had this in their top 5 along with expected heavy hitters American Fiction, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things.

Could Origin nab a screenplay mention from the Academy? That’s still a tough road. The other four titles should make the cut and Barbie is also an adapted work according to Oscar (despite that being heavily debatable). It wasn’t eligible for the USC prize due to their rules.

Where this could “come out of nowhere” as Riseborough did is in Actress. I would say Lily Gladstone in Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things are locked in. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) and Carey Mulligan (Maestro) aren’t shoo-ins, but their inclusion is expected. Then we have one slot up for grabs and hopefuls include Greta Lee (Past Lives), Margot Robbie (Barbie), and Annette Bening (Nyad). We shall see if this fresh round of campaigning puts Ellis-Taylor in the mix. I have my doubts. Then again I didn’t predict Riseborough a year ago and was proven wrong.

I do think Best Picture is a reach. At best, this might be 12th or 13th as far as possibilities. Or perhaps the power of Jolie isn’t to be underestimated. My final Oscar predictions are arriving on the blog imminently…

Oscar Predictions: The Royal Hotel

Four years after their collaboration The Assistant attracted plenty of critical acclaim, director Kitty Green and Julia Garner reunite for the Aussie outback set thriller The Royal Hotel (out Friday in limited fashion). Jessica Henwick, Toby Wallace, and Hugo Weaving also star in the Neon production that premiered at Telluride.

Hotel scored with critics on the fest circuit and the Rotten Tomatoes is 95% (just above the 93% achieved by The Assistant). Inspired by a 2016 documentary, it’s unlikely this will attract the attention of awards voters just as Green’s predecessor couldn’t despite the positive ink. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Sanctuary

Zachary Wigon’s Sanctuary premiered at the Toronto Film Festival eight months ago to sizzling buzz, but it’s just hitting screens in limited fashion tomorrow. The two-hander casts Margaret Qualley as a dominatrix with Christopher Abbott as her wealthy client.

Reviews for the satirical thriller are impressive and it sits at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 40 reviews in. Neon picked up the distribution rights after it debuted up north. Critics are praising the two leads and the original screenplay from Micah Bloomberg.

Despite the love, I doubt this will dominate next year’s Academy Awards. The subject matter may simply be a little much and it could simply fade away given the early release date. Don’t be surprised, though, if Qualley and the script pop up in some critics groups mentions a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: How to Blow Up a Pipeline

The environmental heist thriller How to Blow Up a Pipeline debuted in limited release over Easter weekend to solid results. From director Daniel Goldhaber, this is a fictionalized adaptation of Andreas Malm’s nonfiction 2021 novel. The cast includes Ariela Barer (who also co-scripted), Kristine Froseth, Lukas Gage, Forrest Goodluck, Sasha Lane, Jayme Lawson, Marcus Scribner, Jake Weary, and Irene Bedard.

Pipeline first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to impressive reviews and was quickly snatched up by Neon for distribution. The Rotten Tomatoes meter stands at 95%. I would not be surprised if its distributor (who shepherded Triangle of Sadness to a BP nom last year) make a serious campaign push here.

It could be a long shot for BP, but I wouldn’t totally discount it. This could also be a contender for an Adapted Screenplay nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Eight years ago, documentarian Laura Poitras won the Oscar for her Edward Snowden centered Citizenfour. Her 2016 follow-up Risk (about WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange) was not the commercial success or awards player that the predecessor was. She looks to be back at the awards scene with All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which premiered in Venice and is on route to Toronto.

Her latest focuses on Nan Golden, an activist who takes on the opioid epidemic and those accountable for spreading it. If you’ve seen the acclaimed miniseries Dopesick with Michael Keaton, this could be an interesting companion piece.

One of the higher profile docs playing the fall fest circuit, Neon has already acquired the distribution rights. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 100%, all the logic dictates this should be a contender for Best Documentary Feature. That particular branch of the Academy is unpredictable, but this should be on your radar screen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The First Wave

Out today in limited release is The First Wave from documentarian Matthew Heineman. Distributed by Neon and National Geographic Documentary Films, Wave shows us the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic from a New York City hospital. Its filmmaker has been in the Oscar mix before as his 2015 doc Cartel Land was up for Best Documentary Feature.

There are plenty of high profile contenders for the race in 2021. A potential winner also comes from Nat Geo – The Rescue. That’s in addition to Flee, Summer of Soul, and others.

It’s certainly feasible that this could make the final five and mark Heineman’s second foray into the competition. It’s also possible that some voters may not want to relive the tragic times we’ve gone through.

Bottom line: if The First Wave makes the shortlist next month, a nod is questionable but possible. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Watch: Flee

Back in January at the Sundance Film Festival, Flee was a home run with critics. The film has the very rare distinction of fitting multiple categories – it’s animated. It’s a documentary. And it comes from the nation of Denmark.

Directed by Jonas Poher Rasmussen (and executive produced by last year’s Best Actor nominee Riz Ahmed), Flee tells the true life story of an Afghan refugee’s trials and tribulations. Based on nearly 50 reviews, it holds a pure 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Flee is unique in that it could contend in all four races at the Academy Awards honoring feature-length efforts: Best Picture, International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. The recent news coverage from Afghanistan could contribute to its urgent nature.

Bowing in theaters on December 3rd via Neon, the acclaim for Flee should get this in at least half of the categories where it is eligible. Just last year, Collective managed to do so in International Feature Film and Documentary. It remains to be seen whether this is the Danish pick for the former competition. My hunch is, if so, it could show up in both races.

Animated Feature is also a strong possibility though I’ve written before about how packed it could be. Other viable hopefuls include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Luca, Vivo, and the forthcoming Encanto and Wendell and Wild. 

Best Picture is obviously the toughest one to breach, but I wouldn’t count it out. I could even envision a narrative developing rooting Flee on for inclusion in the entire quartet.

Bottom line: expect to see Flee in the mix in more than one category next year. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…