Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.
The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.
That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The animated futuristic fantasy Arco is out in limited fashion domestically this weekend for an Oscar qualifying run before a nationwide expansion early next year. From filmmaker Ugo Bienvenu, the Neon title premiered at Cannes in May with a voice cast including Margot Ringard Oldra, Oscar Tresanini, Swann Arlaud, and Alma Jodorowsky. The English dub’s faces behind the mic include Romy Fay, Juliano Krue Valdi, Will Ferrell, America Ferrera, Mark Ruffalo, Andy Samberg, and Natalie Portman (who also produces).
Critics have been consistently complimentary with 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Those numbers should be enough for this to make the Best Animated Feature quintet where I’ve had it predicted for some time. A win narrative is trickier as it is probably behind cultural phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters and the forthcoming Zootopia 2 (which has encouraging WOM and the Disney marketing muscle). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
Raoul Peck, whose acclaimed 2016 feature I Am Not Your Negro was nominated for Best Documentary Feature, could find himself in contention nine years later with Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5. Focused on the life of George Orwell while paralleling current events, Damian Lewis narrates as the 1984 writer.
The Neon distributed effort is out today with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 74 Metacritic. The reaction is not as rapturous as Peck’s predecessor. However, with the right push (something Neon is capable of), don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist of docs later this year. It it does, it has a shot to make the quintet though winning is highly improbable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No Other Choice is the newest feature from acclaimed South Korean filmmaker Park Chan-wook and it has premiered in Venice. With domestic distribution by Neon, the satirical thriller is expected to hit domestic screens later this year. It is based on a 1997 novel by Donald Westlake. The cast is led by Lee Byung-hun with supporting turns from Son Ye-jin, Park Hee-soon, Lee Sung-min, Yeom Hye-ran, and Cha Seung-won.
Chan-wook has made critical darlings including Oldboy, The Handmaiden, and Decision to Leave. Yet none of his efforts have been recognized by the Academy in the International Feature Film derby. 2022’s Leave was widely expected to do so and its snub was one of the biggest shockers on that nomination morning.
Choice certainly has the reviews to change that with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 86 on Metacritic. In a best case scenario, it could branch out from IFF and into Best Picture with Chan-wook in the directing quintet, Byung-hun in Actor, and an Adapted Screenplay mention. I think the most likely scenario is inclusion in IFF and the screenplay race. There’s also the possibility that the Academy ignores it like they did with Leave. However, one could argue that pic’s snub could help his latest. One thing to keep an eye is Neon’s bandwidth in their campaigns. In the international competition, they will also be juggling Sentimental Value (the frontrunner at this juncture), Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Acciddent, and the heralded The Secret Agent and Sirât (both Cannes favorites). I wouldn’t put it past Neon to successfully shine lights on all of them though it could be a stretch. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Michael Angelo Covino cowrites, directs, and costars in the rom com Splitsville, out this weekend in limited form and widely on September 5th from distributor Neon. It premiered at Cannes back in May. Dakota Johnson headlines along with her filmmaker, Adria Arjona, Kyle Marvin, Nicholas Braun, David Castaneda, O-T Fagbenie, and Charlie Gillespie.
Johnson’s second genre exercise this season (Materialists being the other), Splitsville is drawing mostly positive critical reaction. Rotten Tomatoes is 86% with Metacritic at 75. I do think Golden Globe attention in Best Musical/Comedy is at least a possibility, but the Academy is unlikely to consider it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Real-life spouses Dave Franco and Alison Brie are fictional spouses growing a little too close for comfort in the body horror tale Together, out July 30th. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts) and the Neon distributed release generated significant buzz after its Sundance bow.
Together currently has bragging rights with a rare 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and that’s helpful for the TV spots. Metacritic is at 76. Neon hopes this brings in genre audiences like their unexpected hit Longlegs did last summer. That critically appreciated pic surprised prognosticators with a $22 million start.
I don’t anticipate Together will see that kind of premiere. I do anticipate it will outdo the $5.3 million opening of Neon offering Immaculate last spring. Since it kicks off on a Wednesday, I’ll say a higher single digits bow over the traditional weekend with around $10 million for the five-day is the call.
Together opening weekend prediction: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Óliver Laxe’s desert set drama Sirât, which premiered at Cannes and won the Jury prize, is a top candidate to be Spain’s submission for International Feature Film. Already out in its home country, Neon snatched up stateside distribution rights with a probable fall premiere. Sergi López, Bruno Núñez Arjona, Richard Bellamy, Stefania Gadda, Joshua Liam Henderson, Tonin Janvier, and Jade Oukid star.
In my first round of predictions for the international race two days ago, I had Sirât in sixth and therefore barely missing inclusion. Spain has had a spotty record in the 21st century getting their pictures nominated. 2004’s The Sea Inside is the sole winner and the other nominees were Pain and Glory from 2019 and Society of the Snow two years ago.
With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic, the critical appreciation is present. Neon’s campaign will be key as they also have heavy hitters Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and The Secret Agent in contention. Not all the IFF nominees can be Neon… right?? My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
In September of last year, Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck was a surprise winner of the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival. Yet it’s the Cannes Film Festival that may dash Chuck‘s hopes for awards love at the 98th Academy Awards.
Allow me to explain. The People’s Choice Award at TIFF has, for nearly two decades, been one of the more reliable indicators of an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? 15 of the last 16 Choice recipients achieved a BP mention including winners Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. The current streak of PCA’s to BP nominees stands at 12 in a row. In 2023, American Fiction instantly became an Academy player after the People’s prize and it resulted in five nominations.
However, distributor Neon did an unexpected thing after Chuck took the Toronto prize. They chose not to release the picture in calendar year 2024 and dated it for 2025. The sci-fi drama based on a 2020 Stephen King novella arrives in limited release on June 6th with a nationwide expansion the following week. Tom Hiddleston leads a cast that includes Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, Jacob Tremblay, and Mark Hamill.
Leaving a nine month gap between the TIFF publicity and its release date was a gamble. At Cannes, which concluded just days ago, Neon went on a spending spree. The distributor bought up the rights to Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident from Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi as well as Grand Prix taker Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier and acclaimed Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Conventional wisdom is that Value has already reserved a slot among the ten Oscar BP contenders. Accident and Agent could also factor into the competition.
Needless to say, that leaves Neon in the mode of picking and choosing their favorites. Unless Chuck becomes a sizable sleeper hit at the box office (which seems questionable), Neon may opt to put their full weight behind their international films. Last year when they delayed Chuck, they went all in on Sean Baker’s Anora and that obviously paid off with victories in Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), and Original Screenplay.
I’ve had Chuck in my 10 predicted BP nominees for the last several weeks, including my latest update from seven days ago. When I publish my updated predictions next weekend, I suspect it will drop out. I do think it stands a solid shot at Adapted Screenplay and maybe Mark Hamill in Supporting Actor. However, Neon’s fortunes at Cannes seem to have diminished Chuck‘s exposure a few months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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