Tag: Muppets

The Happytime Murders Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/18/18): I am revising my estimate from $17.8 million down to $13.8 million

The Happytime Murders drops in theaters next weekend with a very simple concept to draw moviegoers in: Puppets Gone Wild! The very R-rated comic crime tale imagines a world where humans and puppets coexist. It comes from Brian Henson (son of Jim), who made the more family oriented Muppet pics The Muppet Christmas Carol and Muppet Treasure Island in the 1990s. Melissa McCarthy headlines the human cast along with Elizabeth Banks, Maya Rudolph, and Joel McHale. Bill Barretta is the puppet detective who used to work with McCarthy’s character.

The film’s tagline – “All Sesame, No Street” – resulted in a lawsuit from the makers of the long-running PBS program. As you could correctly guess from the red-band trailers, they had no involvement in this particular project.

Happytime should rise or fall at the box office based on audience curiosity in its gimmick. Finding reasonable comparisons for this is a tricky proposition. Two summers ago, the animated Sausage Party rode a wave of good buzz to a fantastic $34 million debut. However, this doesn’t seem to be generating similar chatter as of yet. If we want to go back in dirty puppet history, Team America: World Police earned just over $12 million in the fall of 2004.

The participation of McCarthy could help, but this is not the type of material her fans may typically rush to see. I’ll say Murders manages a debut in the mid to high teens and its word-of-mouth (positive or negative) will determine what transpires in the weeks following.

The Happytime Murders opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my A.X.L. prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/a-x-l-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: April 4-6

There’s only one new movie opening this weekend and that’s no accident because it’s a massive one – Captain America: The Winter Soldier, the sequel to the 2011 Marvel original. Steve Rogers and company should be poised to have the biggest opening of the year so far by a wide margin. You can read my detailed post predicting its debut here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/30/captain-america-the-winter-soldier-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, last weekend’s champ Noah got off to a strong start. However, its weak C Cinemascore grade indicates audiences weren’t exactly (ahem) swept away by it and it could suffer a precipitous decline in its sophomore frame. In its third weekend, Divergent is likely to lose around half it audience as it did in week two. Numbers 4-6 should be a close contest between Muppets Most Wanted, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and The Grand Budapest Hotel.

And with that – we’ll do top 6 predictions for this weekend:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $86.3 million

2. Noah

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

6. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 28%)

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

As mentioned before, Darren Aronofsky’s controversial Biblical epic Noah easily took the top spot with $43.7 million, surging a bit ahead of my $39.7M forecast. With Son of God and God’s Not Dead all posting big results, you can count on plenty of other Bible themed pictures over the next couple of years or so. Divergent held up slightly better than my prognosis in its second weekend with $25.6 million compared to my $23M estimate. Muppets Most Wanted also displayed a better hold the second time around than I figured with $11.2 million (my prediction: $9.6M). I incorrectly had Mr. Peabody & Sherman outside the top six in its fourth weekend but it held strong with $9 million. The aforementioned God’s Not Dead was fifth with $8.7 million – right above my $7.9M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel expanded its theater count and took sixth with $8.5 million, right on target with my $8.6M prediction.

Finally, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Sabotage suffered a disastrous debut with an awful $5.2 million for seventh place. I predicted $8.4M. Clearly Ah-nuld has completely lost his luster with moviegoers and this represents his third bomb in a row after The Last Stand and Escape Plan.

That’s all for now, folks!

March Badness: The Month’s Box Office Failures

As the month of March draws to a close – there are a number of success stories that opened during the time frame: 300: Rise of an Empire, Mr. Peabody and Sherman, Divergent, God’s Not Dead, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Noah.

However, the news wasn’t so lucky for everyone and here are four examples of pictures that didn’t meet expectations:

Need for Speed

Based on the best selling video game and starring “Breaking Bad” actor Aaron Paul, Need for Speed was pegged my many (including me) to open in the $25 million range and yet it managed only $17 million. It will be lucky to earn $50 million stateside, though it’s doing decent business overseas.

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club

Media mogul Perry is rapidly losing his luster with film audiences. Both Peeples and A Madea Christmas disappointed and Single Moms Club represents his worst opening as a director. The pic debuted to a tepid $8 million.

Muppets Most Wanted

When this franchise rebooted in 2011, the result was a $29 million three-day opening and $45 million five-day premiere over the Thanksgiving holiday. The follow-up couldn’t reach close to those numbers with a less than expected $17 million start. Most Wanted held up well in weekend #2 yet it won’t match its predecessor.

Sabotage

After bad openings for his last two features The Last Stand and Escape Plan, news got even worse for Arnold Schwarzenegger. The action pic Sabotage bombed badly with a puny $5 million opening. This represents Ah-nuld’s worst opening in nearly thirty years. Ouch!

 

Box Office Predictions: March 21-23

Two new entries should take the two top spots at the box office this weekend as Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/muppets-most-wanted-box-office-prediction/

Prognosticators have Divergent debuting anywhere from $50 million to over the $70 million that Twilight achieved in 2008. My estimate reflects going towards the higher end of the scale though I believe it’ll reach just short of Twilight heights.

Muppets Most Wanted could debut with $30 million or more, but my prediction reflects a belief that it will open below its predecessor from 2011.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Mr. Peabody and Sherman may fall more in its third weekend than its second due to Kermit and company. 300: Rise of an Empire and Need for Speed should suffer healthy falls in their third and second weekends, respectively.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $68.4 million

2. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results: March 14-16

The story of the weekend was the lackluster openings of both new films – Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club. Their failure to reach their intended audiences allowed Mr. Peabody and Sherman to rise to the top in its second weekend with $21.8 million, slightly ahead of my $20.4M projection.

300: Rise of an Empire fell to second in its sophomore frame with $19.2 million – in line with my $18.8M estimate.

Need for Speed disappointed bringing in a weak $17.8 million, well below my $25.3M estimate. The film proved one more example of a popular video game failing to generate audience excitement.

Non-Stop was fourth with $10.6 million – holding up stronger than my $8.2 million prediction.

In fifth with disastrous results was Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, which represented the star’s worst debut ever for a picture he directed. It earned only $8 million, far below my $17.6M estimate. While Perry is finding success on the OWN Network with his television programs, his film career is clearly losing its luster.

As always, I’ll have full results Monday when the final numbers roll in. Stay tuned!

Muppets Most Wanted Box Office Prediction

Kermit, Missy Piggy and company are back nearly two and a half years following their well-received return in The Muppets with Muppets Most Wanted, out Friday. Over the Thanksgiving holiday in 2011, The Muppets took in $29 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $41 million over the five day holiday frame. The pic went on to gross a respectable $88 million.

Director James Bobin and cowriter Nicholas Stoller are back though original stars Jason Segel and Amy Adams do not return. Most Wanted features Ricky Gervais, Tina Fey, and Ty Burrell, but what really matters is our favorite Muppets are all returning. Some prognosticators are pegging this to gross around $30 million or more this weekend. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise, but I have a gut feeling that the franchise Jim Henson built will have underwhelming results this time around.

Family audiences have had no shortage of quality flicks to enjoy recently – including blockbusters Frozen, The LEGO Movie, and the current #1 Mr. Peabody and Sherman. Entering its third weekend, Peabody should still post solid numbers and could take a bite out of the Muppet pie. Teenagers will likely be distracted by Divergent, which is primed for a big opening.

My prediction reflects a belief that Muppets Most Wanted will fall under what its predecessor did for only a so-so debut.

Muppets Most Wanted opening weekend prediction: $22.8 million

For my Divergent prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/