Tag: movies

Box Office Predictions: July 25-27

Three new titles open Friday to challenge current two week champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for box office dominance. They are the Scarlett Johannson action pic Lucy, The Rock led Hercules, and the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Lucy and Hercules may fight it out for the #1 position. If both underwhelm, there is an outside chance for Dawn to three-peat. As for other holdovers, current #2 The Purge: Anarchy is likely to suffer the typically big decline that horror titles do, though I’m not predicting it’ll drop as precipitously as the original fell (75%) last summer. The animated Planes: Fire & Rescue should have the smallest decline of all titles in its sophomore weekend while And So It Goes may have to settle for a sixth place debut.

And with that – my predictions for this coming weekend’s top 6:

1. Lucy

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

2. Hercules

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. Planes: Fire & Rescue

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Purge: Anarchy

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. And So It Goes

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained #1 for the second week in a row with $36.2 million, just above my $34.6M projection. The well-reviewed sequel has earned $139 million in ten days and a gross north of $200 million seems in the cards.

I far underestimated The Purge: Anarchy, which debuted strongly at second with $29.8 million – way beyond my $15.5M prediction. I incorrectly surmised that audience’s dislike of the original would hurt this. It didn’t. Expect a part 3 next year.

Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue opened third with a decent $17.5 million, under my generous $25.4M estimate. It couldn’t match the $22 million that its predecessor accomplished last summer, but it should hold well in future weekends.

The bomb of the weekend was undoubtedly the Cameron Diaz comedy Sex Tape, which stumbled out of the gate with $14.6 million – about half of my $29.1M projection. Oops. There’s no doubt that highly negative reviews hurt this and this will go down as one of the season’s biggest flops.

In fifth was holdover Transformers: Age of Extinction with $9.8 million in its fourth weekend, above my $7.7M estimate. It’s taken in $227 million so far and should get to $250 million, which will most likely allow it to be summer’s highest domestic grosser.

That’s all for now, everyone!

 

Under the Skin Movie Review

Jonathan Glazer’s Under the Skin is one of those films that your film geek friend will likely rave about while the vast majority of audience members won’t enjoy it. This is no doubt an “art film” and it’s not for mainstream filmgoers in the least. For me, there is enough truly amazing visuals in the pic that I felt it worth my time. However, be warned – you may not feel it’s worth yours.

Loosely adapted from Michael Faber’s 2000 novel, Under the Skin stars Scarlett Johannson as a nameless alien being trolling the Scottish countryside for men to destroy. We are never given a reason why she’s doing so and it doesn’t much matter. She lures these men in the simplest way possible… her disguise is that she looks like Scarlett Johannson. There’s another “male” alien accomplice who rides around on a motorcycle and assists her.

Her cold and calculated seductions take a turn when she begins to develop some feelings about what she’s doing. It allows her to spare the life of a man with a severe facial disfigurement. And it leads her to form an awkward relationship with another man that she attempts to have a normal sexual relationship with.

Under the Skin has a dreamlike quality to its proceedings throughout. If you’re the type of art house enthusiast who revels in captivating imagery, there is much to take in here. There are shots in the picture – an abandoned child in a murder scene, the luscious Scottish landscapes, the alien’s character revealing her true body – that will stay with you and are creepy and haunting. Daniel Lindin’s cinematography and Mica Levi’s musical score are terrific. And Johannson once again proves why she’s one of the best actresses today. She has little dialogue and much of her most powerful acting is done through her expressions. It’s one of her most remarkable performances.

There is a lot to be admired about Under the Skin and yet I won’t deny that the pacing is slow and tough going at times. This is not a film for mass consumption, but for “film people” (you know who you are) – it’s definitely worth a look.

*** (out of four)

And So It Goes Box Office Prediction

Director Rob Reiner attempts a summer movie season counterprogramming move with And So It Goes, opening Friday. The romantic comedy stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton and the pic will try to bring in an adult audience burnt out on would-be blockbusters populating the marketplace.

I’m not so sure it’ll succeed. Early reviews have been mixed and the advertising campaign has been low-key. And So It Goes would love to bring in the numbers of Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones, which opened two summers ago to a $14 million opening weekend gross. I don’t believe this will reach those heights. Premiering on a relatively low 1800 screens, I’m forecasting that this won’t quite reach double digits and should be available for home viewing in the near future.

And So It Goes opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

Hercules Box Office Prediction

This Friday, audiences are treated to their second Hercules themed film of 2014. This would considered the higher profile one as The Legend of Hercules bombed in January with an abysmal $18 million domestic gross. Expectations are understandably bigger for this one – as it stars Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and is directed by Brett Ratner. It’s likely to gross more in its first weekend than Legend did in its whole domestic run.

Having said that, I’m anticipating a fairly muted opening for Hercules. The trailers and TV sports aren’t bad, but they’re rather unimpressive. There’s also Lucy, the Scarlett Johannson action thriller that seems to have more buzz around it and could be more successful in attracting a female audience. As I see it, Hercules will need to do solid business internationally to justify its reported $110 million budget because I don’t see it reaching very close to that stateside.

Hercules opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

For my And So It Goes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

Lucy Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Scarlett Johannson enters Angelina Jolie territory as she headlines the action thriller Lucy, from director Luc Besson. Costarring the Narrator in Chief Morgan Freeman, Universal Studios has shown confidence in the project by moving it from its original August time slot to late July. The marketing campaign has been strong and the trailers and TV spots are effective.

The big question is whether Lucy will be negatively affected by its competition, Hercules featuring The Rock. Both pictures could cause the other to lose out on their full box office potential. What Lucy has that Hercules may not is the chance to bring more females into the fold. Audiences are used to seeing Johannson in action mode following her appearances in Iron Man 2, The Avengers, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which is still 2014’s highest grosser.

Add that up and Lucy has a real chance to be a sleeper summer hit and nab the #1 spot over its competitors.

Lucy opening weekend prediction: $28.1 million

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my And So It Goes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

Ride Along Movie Review

When it comes to actors who have perfected the art of the scowl, Ice Cube is among the best. Whereas Will Ferrell and Gene Hackman are great cinematic yellers, Mr. Cube has displayed his knack for good scowling in numerous pictures – most notably the Jump Street franchise. He gets to scowl a lot at costar Kevin Hart in Ride Along.

Cube plays James, the hardened Atlanta detective. Hart is Ben, a wannabe cop currently pulling duty as a high school security guard. Ben is dating James’s girlfriend and he wants her brother’s blessing before he pops the question. James doesn’t believe he deserves her. He decides to kill two birds with one stone when he offers to take Ben on a ride along to prove he can’t hack it in the law enforcement world or in his family.

What follows is a series of very familiar buddy cop scenarios that are directed and written with little energy and zero originality. We have Bruce McGill as the police captain who likes to yell. The main villain is a mysterious arms dealer named Omar who’s played a paycheck cashing Laurence Fishburne. There’s the double crossing cops who are actually in cahoots with the villain. And, obviously, the central female character is going to be put in danger at some point.

Much of these by-the-numbers development that permeate the picture could be forgiven if it had enough genuinely humorous moments. There aren’t many at all. Kevin Hart is a ball of energy, but it doesn’t usually equate to laughs. Then there’s Cube. He’s proven on several occasions that he’s a solid actor whether in drama or comedy. And yet Cube is just left scowling for most of Ride Along‘s running time. With the material he has to work with here, the scowling is justified.

*1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: July 18-20

We’ve got three new titles populating theaters this coming Friday: the Cameron Diaz/Jason Segel comedy Sex Tape, the horror sequel The Purge: Anarchy and Disney’s animated sequel Planes: Fire & Rescue. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/the-purge-anarchy-box-office-prediction/

These newbies could create a legitimate three-way race for the #1 spot. The main question is whether Sex Tape or Planes could exceed my expectations and knock current champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from its perch? It’s certainly possible. Some could make the argument that the Purge sequel could over perform and compete, but I just don’t see that happening.

Ultimately I’m predicting the Apes will keep their considerable monkey business at #1 with the new entries coming in second through fourth. The well-reviewed Apes flick is likely to lose 45-55% of its audience in its sophomore frame. Transformers: Age of Extinction should fall to fifth.

And with that, my top five predictions for the upcoming weekend:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $34.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Sex Tape

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million

3. Planes: Fire & Rescue

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. The Purge: Anarchy

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

5. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes dominated the weekend with a very solid $72.6 million haul – though it did fall a little short of my $77.2M projection. This is a great start for it and pretty much guarantees more franchise entrees in the near future.

Falling to second in weekend #3 was Transformers: Age of Extinction with $16.3 million, right in range with my $16.8M prediction. The fourth film in the Michael Bay series has earned $208 million so far. It will likely top out around $250 million and will easily be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise.

Melissa McCarthy’s critically panned Tammy held up a bit better than I figured, placing third with $12.5 million – above my $10.7M estimate. The comedy has earned $56 million in two weeks.

In fourth was 22 Jump Street with $6.5 million, just outshining my $5.6M prediction. The sequel has earned $171 million. In fifth was How to Train Your Dragon 2 with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! The animated sequel has earned a less than expected $152 million. Finally, Earth to Echo was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million, in line with my $5.2M projection. Its taken in $24 million in two weeks.

And that’s all for now, friends!

 

Her Movie Review

“Sometimes I think I have felt everything I’m ever gonna feel, and from here on out I’m not gonna feel anything new… just… lesser versions of what I’ve already felt.”

It is Joaquin Phoenix’s main character in Her that utters these words and he along with most of the human and not human characters seem to feel that way. They are all proven wrong eventually in this strangely romantic tale from Spike Jonze, a visionary director working off his own highly creative screenplay.

Set in the likely not too distant future, Her focuses on Theodore Twombly (Phoenix), who is surrounded by love all day in the form of his job as a composer of heartfelt letters that he’s hired to develop for others. In his real life, there is a severe lack of the emotion that earns him his living. He’s long separated from his wife (Rooney Mara) and not able to bring himself to sign divorce papers.

His lonely existence leads him to purchase an operating system (or OS) that is designed to adapt to their owner. His OS comes in the form of Samantha (voiced by Scarlett Johannson) and her existence in Theodore’s life becomes serious very quickly. The artificial intelligence that OS’s can develop turns out to be more than either Theodore or Samantha could possibly expect and they fall in love.

Her has a lot to say about the human race’s constantly increasing reliance on technology, but more to say about our need for companionship and love. If the concept of a person falling love with their computer had been made 20 or 10 or even 5 years ago, it would’ve have felt like true science fiction. This film doesn’t feel that way and it’s a massive credit to Jonze for steeping Her in relative realism. The characters surrounding Theodore are not horrified or even that surprised of his love for Samantha and neither are we as an audience.

Those characters surrounding Theodore include his friend Amy (Amy Adams), who is going through her own divorce. Unlike Samantha, Mara as the ex-wife is seen a lot through flashbacks but only heard from in one scene where the childhood sweethearts finalize the end of their journey together.

Yet this film belongs to Phoenix and Johannson. Ever since his bizarre and planned meltdown from a few years back, Phoenix has gone a long way in reminding us that he’s one of his generation’s greatest actors. After his amazing turn in 2012’s The Master, his performance here is equally masterful. Johannson is never seen, but her voice work is terrific. Simply put, if their performances and Jonze’s screenplay didn’t convince you of their true love for each other, Her would fall apart. It does the opposite. And as their relationship becomes more complicated (as real relationships always do), we buy where Jonze takes us every step of the way.

Through Being John Malkovich and Adaptation and (to a lesser degree) Where the Wild Things Are, Jonze has delivered each time he steps behind the camera. For his two greatest pics (Malkovich, Adaptation), he had the help of brilliant screenwriter Charlie Kaufman. It is with Her that he proves his writing matches his direction.

***1/2 (out of four)

 

The Purge: Anarchy Box Office Prediction

Last summer The Purge came out of nowhere and earned $64 million domestically against a tiny budget of only $3 million. Naturally, a sequel quickly got the green light from Universal Pictures and writer/director James DeMonaco is back in charge with Frank Grillo and Carmen Ejogo starring.

So it would stand to reason that the horror/thriller sequel should keep the gravy train rolling, right? Well… not so fast. When the original debuted in early June 2013, it started strongly out of the gate with a $34 million opening. That means it earned over half of its domestic gross in its first three days. What does that mean? It received a dismal “C” Cinemascore grade. So audiences didn’t like what they saw and they certainly weren’t telling their friends to check it out.

The Purge: Anarchy faces an uphill battle to come close to competing with its predecessor. The lackluster reaction to last year’s entry doesn’t bode well. If something like Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones could only manage an opening just north of $18 million in January, it’s hard to see this earning more in a much more competitive time frame.

As I see it, Anarchy is primed for a mediocre premiere and I don’t believe it’ll even start with half of what the first hauled in a year ago.

The Purge: Anarchy opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million

For my Sex Tape prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/

For my Planes: Fire & Rescue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

Sex Tape Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, Bad Teacher performed well with audiences to the tune of a $100 million domestic gross. On Friday, that film’s director Jake Kasdan and its stars Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel reunite for Sex Tape. The raunchy comedy’s concept is simple: bored married couple makes sex tape to spice things up and it accidentally goes viral. Costars include Rob Corddry, Ellie Kemper, and Rob Lowe.

Diaz, especially, has proven herself to be a valuable commodity in these types of pictures. Just this spring, The Other Woman got off to a $24 million debut on its way to an $83M domestic haul. And Sex Tape could be more successful in bringing in a male audience as Woman was geared more towards… well, women. Similar types of movies such as No Strings Attached or Friends with Benefits both opened to just shy of $20 million, but this should outdo them.

The most fair comparison for how Sex Tape plays is likely Bad Teacher itself. It opened to $31 million in June 2011 and it’s certainly possible that this could open in the same range. Ultimately I’m predicting it falls just short of that for a solid opening.

Sex Tape opening weekend prediction: $29.1 million

For my The Purge: Anarchy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/the-purge-anarchy-box-office-prediction/

For my Planes: Fire & Rescue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/