The late Paul Walker headlines the action thriller Brick Mansions which debuts this Friday. This is one of the star’s final roles before his tragic auto accident that claimed his life in the fall of 2013 and it features a script from Luc Besson and costars Wu-Tang Clan founder RZA.
The marketing for Mansions has ramped up a bit in the last couple of weeks and it will be interesting to see how Walker’s presence translates into box office dollars. Truth be told, Mr. Walker was never much of a box office draw outside of the massive Fast and Furious franchise and there’s nothing much about this film’s TV spots that make it look noteworthy.
My gut feeling is that audiences will, for the most part, wait until the seventh Fast flick in 2015 to bid farewell to the late actor and Brick Mansions should have a debut in the low double digits.
Brick Mansions opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
Cameron Diaz and romantic comedies are usually a formula that mix well together at the box office and this Friday, we’ll see if that pans out again with The Other Woman. In the past few years, Diaz has seen What Happens in Vegas debut to $20 million and Bad Teacher get off to a $31 million start. Both of those pics had higher profile summer release slots, while this one gets the late April slot which marks the last weekend before the onslaught of tent pole summer releases hit.
The Other Woman features costars Leslie Mann, Kate Upton, and rapper Nicki Minaj in a tale of women bonded together by one cheating hubby. I haven’t seen a whole lot of marketing for it – but to be fair – I probably don’t frequent the channels where this is being touted. Reviews should pretty much be a non-factor as it currently stands at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes – certainly not great, but not terrible either.
As I see it, The Other Woman is unlikely to reach the heights of the two previously mentioned Diaz movies, but I’ll say it gets just under $20M and that should be enough to make it #1 this weekend before Spider-Man swoops in and kicks off the blockbuster season.
The Other Woman opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million
On this coming Easter weekend, four new titles make their debut at multiplexes: the Johnny Depp sci-fi thriller Transcendence, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real, the horror parody sequel A Haunted House 2, and the Disney nature doc Bears. You can find my individual prediction posts on each right here:
My predictions reflect a belief that Transcendence should open first, though it may face competition from Rio 2 in its second weekend. That animated sequel should suffer a rather small decline that isn’t as steep as last weekend’s returning champ Captain America: The Winter Soldier.
Heaven Is for Real could be poised for a solid opening with its shrewd Easter debut while I see fairly disappointing results for A Haunted House 2 and Bears.
And with that – my top six predictions for the holiday weekend:
1. Transcendence
Predicted Gross: $30.8 million
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $25.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Heaven Is for Real
Predicted Gross: $17.5 million (predicted five-day opening of $24.8 million)
5. A Haunted House 2
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
6. Bears
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
Box Office Results (April 11-13)
As predicted, Captain America: The Winter Soldier held onto the top spot in its sophomore weekend with $41.2 million, a bit below my $45.3M prediction. The animated Rio 2 opened right on pace with its predecessor with $39.3 million (the first did $39.2M out of the gate), slightly below my $41.7M estimate. The horror flick Oculus had a middling start with $12 million for third place, just above my $11M projection while Kevin Costner’s Draft Day had a weak fourth place debut with only $9.7 million, under my $13.2M estimate. Noah rounded out the top five with $7.5 million, on target with my $7.4M prediction.
Arriving just 15 months after the unexpected success of its predecessor, A Haunted House 2 starring Marlon Wayans hits theaters Friday. The horror flick parody follows the original which debuted in January 2013 to a solid $18 million opening weekend on its way to a $40 million domestic gross.
While the original was a sleeper hit (especially considering its miniscule $2.5 million budget), expectations are a little more this time around. In my estimation, this sequel won’t match up either. Simply put, while A Haunted House did good business, audiences weren’t overly impressed by what they saw. This helps explain why it did nearly half its overall gross in the first three days.
While A Haunted House 2 certainly could approach what the first accomplished, I think it’s unlikely. As I see it, this will struggle and a likely gross is in the low double digits seems in the cards.
A Haunted House 2 opening weekend prediction: $10.6 million
With a meager $12 million budget, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real looks to capitalize on its Easter weekend opening and continue the trend of Bible themed pictures doing well at the multiplex. Already this year, we’ve seen Son of God, Noah, and God’s Not Dead all post solid results.
Randall Wallace, screenwriter of Braveheart and director of We Were Soldiers, is behind the camera with a cast that includes Greg Kinnear, Kelly Reilly, and Thomas Haden Church. It’s based on a bestselling 2010 book. Heaven opens on Wednesday and I’ll be predicting both its five-day and traditional weekend gross.
As I see it, this could easily exceed expectations and a have a larger gross than my estimate will reflect. In February, Son of God took in $26.5 million in its three day weekend debut. I could see Heaven accomplishing close to that in its five-day haul which would be a robust start for Sony Pictures.
Heaven Is for Real opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For cinephiles, this Friday’s Transcendence has been eagerly anticipated not just for Johnny Depp starring in it – but also because it marks the directorial debut of Wally Pfister. He is best known as the cinematographer behind all of Chris Nolan’s pictures, including The Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. The sci-fi thriller is headlined by Depp with a supporting cast including Rebecca Hall, Kate Mara, and Nolan regulars Morgan Freeman and Cillian Murphy.
The participation of Depp makes this high-profile alone, but it’s worth noting he’s had a couple of flops in a row with Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. The trailers for Transcendence have surprisingly been rather middling in my view and they don’t really reflect what the film is about. This could hinder its potential with its opening. Warner Bros. is releasing Transcendence the same weekend as Tom Cruise’s Oblivion last year. That title earned $37 million in its premiere and I’m sure the studio would love to see that number here.
Transcendence should easily nab the #1 spot next weekend but I don’t believe it’ll get quite as high as Cruise’s sci-fi entry. Low 30s seems the safe bet.
Transcendence opening weekend prediction: $30.8 million
Currently at the multiplex, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is reigning supreme with its record-setting April debut of $95 million. This Marvel production is the just the latest example of an interesting and rare phenomenon – sequels that are considered superior to their predecessors.
However, if you take a close look at the superhero genre – it really isn’t a rare thing. In fact, one could argue it’s the only film genre in which sequels are very often considered improvements on the original. This doesn’t hold true for comedies or horror pics or action flicks. The explosion of comic book related titles (especially in the 21st century) has produced multiple examples of this.
Before we get there, let’s take a look back. In the late 70s, Superman was a massive hit and its 1980 sequel was generally considered a worthy follow-up that wasn’t quite its equal. The same holds true for the big comic book film character of the late 80s with Batman and its 1992 sequel Batman Returns. With both of those franchises – their third and fourth entries were considered highly disappointing.
This dynamic would shift in the 21st century. When X-Men jumpstarted the genre once again in 2000, it was well-received by critics and audiences and yet its follow-up X2: X-Men United earned even greater acclaim.
We would see this happen yet again when Spider-Man 2 improved upon Spider-Man.
And yet again when The Dark Knight became a beloved global hit with most believing it reached greater heights than Batman Begins.
Marvel Studios has seen this happen with both the current Captain America sequel and Thor: The Dark World from last year. And we’ll see if their trend continues with next year’s Avengers follow-up.
As you can see, it’s usually more the rule than exception that superhero sequels are thought of as bettering film #1. You could put Blade II and Hellboy: The Golden Army in there as well, according to many moviegoers.
Having said that, it doesn’t always hold true. You would be hard pressed to find many people who believe Iron Man 2 was a better experience than the 2008 original. And while second pictures have had lots of luck, third installments in the 21st century are a different story. Spider-Man 3, X-Men: The Last Stand, and (to a lesser degree) The Dark Knight Rises were all considered letdowns. The exception is Iron Man 3, considered an upgrade over #2.
Of course, there are sequels in film history outside of the superhero genre that this applies to with The Empire Strikes Back being an obvious example. Others that come up in the conversation: Terminator 2: Judgment Day (though I would disagree), The Road Warrior, and Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan.
As far this blog post’s focus, we’ll be seeing more examples of superhero sequels within weeks with The Amazing Spider-Man 2, the buzz of which already indicates it’s more solid than the original. And there’s X-Men: Days of Future Past, which will try to top X-Men: First Class. We will see if the usual third entry letdown occurs with Captain America and Thor follow-ups in the next couple of years.
One thing is clear – when it comes to comic book pics – the first issue isn’t always the most memorable.
A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $41.7 million
3. Draft Day
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Oculus
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Noah
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.
In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.
That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!
The horror flick Oculus debuts in theaters Friday after receiving a mostly positive reaction when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last year. Whether or not it scores with the genre’s audience is an open question.
To me, the marketing campaign for Oculus has seemed rather subdued. It features no big stars, but that doesn’t really matter when it comes to how horror flicks perform. This could follow a similar pattern to last August’s You’re Next, which also received good reviews but stumbled at the box office with a $7 million opening.
I don’t believe Oculus will debut that badly, but I think double digits is my range here. Horror pics are notoriously difficult to predict, so who knows? However, as I see it, I wouldn’t look for Oculus 2 anytime soon.
Kevin Costner headlines the football comedy/drama Draft Day, which opens Friday. The film focuses on Costner playing the Cleveland Browns GM and the action surrounding them receiving the #1 pick in the draft.
Costarring Jennifer Garner and Denis Leary and with Ghostbusters director Ivan Reitman behind the camera, the question is whether Draft Day will do for the Cleveland Browns what 1989’s Major League did for the Cleveland Indians? That picture was a success and it was unfortunately followed by some weak sequels. Costner is not near the box office draw he was over two decades ago, as evidenced earlier this year with 3 Days to Kill.
Recent sports entries such as The Blind Side and 42 have posted solid grosses, but I don’t see Draft Day getting close to those. As a lifelong Cleveland sports fan, this shouldn’t surprise. We’re used to anything related to Cleveland sports ending in disappointment. The pic could certainly reach high teens, but I’m more inclined to believe lower teens is the likely scenario.
Draft Day opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 