This Friday’s Beyond the Lights represents a fine example of a film that could do absolutely nothing or greatly exceed expectations upon its debut. The romantic drama focusing on the music industry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to positive reviews and it currently holds a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The cast includes Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Nate Parker, Minnie Driver, Danny Glover, and rapper Machine Gun Kelly.
The big question is whether or not Beyond the Lights reaches its African-American target audience. If so, I believe Lights could reach double digits when it rolls out on a relatively small 1600 screens Friday. Truth be told, this could simply not land with its intended audience and debut in the mid single digits.
However, I’m going the opposite way here. I believe the positive buzz and frequent TV spots I’ve seen will allow Lights to post a respectable debut and reach double digits.
Beyond the Lights opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
One of the most beloved comedic duos returns as Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) blast back in theaters in Dumb and Dumber To, out Friday. The Farrelly Brothers are back in the director chairs as this sequel is released nearly 20 years after the original earned $127 million domestically. Kathleen Turner, Laurie Holden, and Rob Riggle are in the supporting cast.
A lot has changed in those two decades. At the time, Carrey was a box office force as Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and the first Dumber all were huge hits in 1994. In the last decade or so, Carrey’s power has waned. His last traditional comedic release, 2008’s Yes Man, couldn’t break the $100M dollar mark. We’re a long ways away from even 2003 when his Bruce Almighty could debut to $67 million. And it’s important to remember that to a young generation of moviegoers, a high-profile Carrey release is something they’re not accustomed to rushing out to the multiplex to see.
Having said that, 1994’s Dumb and Dumber is arguably the actor’s most fondly remembered release with its constant rotation on cable TV and the great work of Jeff Daniels is part of the reason as well. The most fair comparison to how Dumb To could perform may well be last year’s Anchorman sequel (another cherished comedy) which got off to a $28M traditional Friday to Sunday start.
Rolling out in approximately 3000 theaters, the Anchorman number is just about where I see this premiering. It could certainly reach past $30M, but I’ll put it just under that.
Dumb and Dumber To opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million
After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.
As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Big Hero 6
Predicted Gross: $61.4 million
2. Interstellar
Predicted Gross: $57.2 million
3. Nightcrawler
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)
4. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)
As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.
The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.
Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).
In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.
On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.
In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar.
It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.
My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.
Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million
One of the most eagerly awaited titles of the year arrives Friday when Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar blasts into theaters. The science fiction epic stars recently minted Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and Nolan mainstay Michael Caine, among others.
Nolan, of course, is best known for his massive Dark Knight trilogy. He is one of the few directors around whose name sells tickets. Of course, Interstellar is not expected to come near the box office grosses of his Batman flicks. A more fair benchmark may well be 2010’s Inception, which opened to $62 million on its way to a $292 million domestic haul.
The picture currently sits at a respectable though unspectacular 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The TV ads and trailers certainly succeed at marketing Interstellar as an “event movie” while maintaining Nolan’s desired secrecy prior to release. Reaching the Inception take of above $60M is certainly a major possibility, but my gut feeling reflects a belief that its debut will be more in line with Gravity last year. That film opened with $55.7 million in October of 2013. There could be a real battle for #1 next weekend with Disney’s Big Hero 6 premiering as well and I believe it’ll likely edge out Interstellar. Still – Nolan’s pic should enjoy a very solid roll out.
Interstellar opening weekend prediction: $57.2 million
From the release of Guardians of the Galaxy in August until the release of Avengers: Age of Ultron in May 2015, there will be nine months that pass between superhero/comic book based pictures. Starting next year and especially in 2016 and beyond, that’s going to change.
It’s almost hard to believe, but there are currently 30 – yes, 30 – superhero pics scheduled to debut between 2015 and 2020. Some – though likely not many at all – could fall to the wayside. And certainly more could be added to the calendar over the next six years.
Today, Marvel Studios announced “Phase 3” of their slate of films scheduled to be released until 2019 – culminating with the third and fourth Avengers pictures. Besides the Disney/Marvel releases, Warner Bros. and Fox have their own ambitious slates.
The 21st century has been absolutely dominated by the comic book adaptation in movie world. It started in 2000 with X-Men and has continued with the Dark Knight franchise, The Avengers, Guardians, two Superman reboots, two Spider-Man franchises, and various stand-alone features and their sequels and reboots focused on Captain America, Thor, Hulk, Daredevil, Hellboy, and others. And it’s only accelerating.
This is going to be tough to keep all these Iron Men, Guardians, Caped Crusaders, and newbies like Ant-Man, Wonder Woman, and Doctor Strange straight, so this movie blogger is providing you a handy guide for all of them coming out over the next few years – in order of currently scheduled release.
Here we go:
Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1, 2015
Joss Whedon returns to direct as Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Hawkeye, and Black Widow all return in the sequel to the #3 highest grossing film of all time. This will almost surely set a new record for all-time opening weekend, therefore defeating its predecessor.
Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17, 2015
Paul Rudd takes on the role of the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly costarring. Expect Ant-Man to find his way into later Disney/Marvel projects, possibly including later Avengers sequels.
The Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7, 2015
After two successful but critically panned Fantastic Four pics earlier this century, director Josh Trank (Chronicle) takes over the reins of a budding new franchise for 20th Century Fox. The cast includes Miles Teller as Mr. Fantastic, Kate Mara as the Invisible Woman, Michael B. Jordan as the Human Torch, and Jamie Bell as The Thing.
Deadpool
Release Date: February 12, 2016
A spinoff of the X-Men series, Ryan Reynolds is likely to play the character (he played him in the poorly received original 2009 Wolverine stand-alone flick).
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Released Date: March 25, 2016
Man of Steel director Zack Snyder returns with Henry Cavill’s Superman battling Ben Affleck’s Batman. Gal Gadot will make her debut as Wonder Woman before a later stand-alone pic and Jesse Eisenberg joins the mix as Lex Luthor.
Captain America: Civil War
Release Date: May 6, 2016
The third America flick will feature a prominent role for Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man with The Winter Soldier‘s Anthony and Joe Russo returning to direct.
X-Men: Apocalypse
Release Date: May 27, 2016
Days of Future Past director Bryan Singer is back (he also directed the first two installments of the original trilogy) as is the cast from 2011’s First Class, including James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, and Jennifer Lawrence.
Suicide Squad
Release Date: August 5, 2016
This team of DC villains will be incorporated in the Warner Bros. movie universe that will eventually lead to the Justice League pics. Jesse Eisenberg is rumored to appear in this as well in his Lex Luthor role. David Ayer, director of Fury, is behind the camera.
Doctor Strange
Release Date: November 4, 2016
Sinister director Scott Derickson helms the adaptation of the Marvel comic with Benedict Cumberbatch just having signed to play the title character after negotiations with Joaquin Phoenix stalled.
Sinister Six
Release Date: November 11, 2016
A spin-off of the current Spider-Man franchise, this will focus on supervillains in the Spidey universe, reportedly including Green Goblin, Doctor Octopus, and Rhino. Cabin in the Woods director Drew Goddard is on board.
Venom
Release Date: 2017
A stand-alone pic for the Spidey villain, it’s uncertain at this point whether Sony Pictures ends up going forward with this one.
Untitled Wolverine Picture
Release Date: March 3, 2017
The third stand-alone Wolverine flick will have Hugh Jackman clawing his way on screen and James Mangold, who directed 2013’s The Wolverine, returning.
Guardians of the Galaxy 2
Release Date: May 5, 2017
Star Lord and company are back with James Gunn back in the director’s chair. The original from this summer grossed an astonishing $752 million worldwide (at press time).
Wonder Woman
Release Date: June 23, 2017
It’s about time a woman headlined one of these things! Gal Gadot will star after appearing as the title character in Batman v. Superman. No director attached at press time.
The Fantastic Four 2
Release Date: July 14, 2017
Fox is confident as they’ve scheduled this to follow-up summer 2015’s release.
Thor: Ragnorak
Release Date: July 28, 2017
The third entry in the franchise, Chris Hemsworth will reprise his role in between Avengers filming duties. No director attached yet.
Black Panther
Release Date: November 3, 2017
Disney/Marvel gives their first headlining feature to an African-American superhero. 42 and Get On Up star Chadwick Boseman was cast as the Panther today. The character will reportedly first appear in 2016’s Captain America: Civil War.
Justice League Part One
Release Date: November 17, 2017
Essentially Warner Bros. version of Avengers, expect to see Cavill’s Superman, Affleck’s Batman, Gadot’s Wonder Woman, and likely Green Lantern, The Flash, Aquaman, and Cyborg in the mix. Zack Snyder will direct.
The Amazing Spider-Man 3
Release Date: 2018
No specific release date yet, other than sometime in 2018 and you have to wonder. Each Spidey flick has grossed less than its predecessor and this summer’s The Amazing Spider-Man 2 was a commercial and critical letdown. It’s not known for sure yet, but Andrew Garfield is likely to return as the title character.
The Flash
Release Date: March 23, 2018
After a probable debut in Justice League, The Flash gets his own stand-alone pic with Ezra Miller in the title role.
Avengers: Infinity War, Part 1
Release Date: May 4, 2018
This is where the Marvel universe is likely to go bananas – with rumors of your typical Avengers (Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, Hulk) possibly mixing it up with Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, and the Guardians of the Galaxy, among others. This is gonna be huge.
Captain Marvel
Release Date: July 6, 2018
Details are scarce, but this will be Disney/Marvel Studios first stand-alone featuring a title character who is a female. Expect an A list actress to join at some point.
Untitled Fox Marvel Movie
Release Date: July 13, 2018
Once again – details are very scarce. However, there are rumors that this could be Fox’s “Avengers” type pic, incorporating the X-Men, the Fantastic Four, and Deadpool.
Aquaman
Release Date: July 27, 2018
After an expected debut in Justice League, “Games of Thrones” star Jason Momoa will portray the title character.
Inhumans
Release Date: November 2, 2018
Marvel/Disney will attempt and almost assuredly succeed with this development of a new Guardians/Avengers type franchise. Director/actor announcements will come later.
Shazam
Release Date: April 5, 2019
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will play the title character in this DC Comic adaptation.
Avengers: Infinity Wars, Part 2
Release Date: May 3, 2019
The continuation of the previous summer’s Marvel blowout – don’t be surprised if this marks the final appearances of Downey Jr’s Iron Man, Chris Evans’s Captain America, and Chris Hemsworth’s Thor. This will be the end of Phase 3 for Disney/Marvel and we’ll have to wait and see what Phase 4 brings.
Justice League, Part 2
Release Date: June 13, 2019
The Batman/Superman/Green Lantern/Flash/Wonder Woman/Aquaman saga rolls on…
Cyborg
Release Date: April 3, 2020
Originating from DC, Warner Bros. will adapt this character with Ray Fisher in the title role. It’s rumored he’ll begin his appearances beginning with 2016’s Batman v. Superman and later Justice League flicks.
Green Lantern
Release Date: June 19, 2020
There was a badly received version starring Ryan Reynolds in 2011. Expect Warner Bros. to ignore that flick while reintroducing the character in Justice League prior to this stand-alone.
And there you have it – that’s a whole lotta superhero action scheduled to come your way over the rest of this decade.
A very large and important piece of the Oscar puzzle came into focus today as Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar had its review embargo lifted. It opens next Friday (November 7), but the critics are having their say, which obviously impacts its standing in the Academy Awards races.
The verdict? Somewhat mixed. While some reviewers have been over the moon on it (forgive the pun), others are having issues with its screenplay. It’s the same issue that hindered Gravity‘s chances of a win last year. Currently it stands at a respectable though unspectacular 69% on Rotten Tomatoes (though that number is bound to change as more notices roll in).
The acting has been pretty much praised up and down beginning with Matthew McConaughey’s lead role. However, it’s unlikely he’ll figure into the Best Actor race due to how crowded it is and the fact that he won just last year. Of all the performers, Jessica Chastain probably stands the best chance at a Supporting Actor nod, though that’s far from certain and even she is likely on the outside looking in.
It will certainly be a major factor in the technical categories, from Cinematography to Editing to the two Sound categories to Visual Effects. Hans Zimmer may also be recognized for his Original Score.
As for Screenplay, that remains a big question mark considering it seems to be what some critics are leveling their complaints about.
I still believe Nolan stands a good shot at a Directing nomination considering the lauded visual scope of the picture. And with the possibility of up to ten movies being nominated, Interstellar still should make the cut. Yet one nearly assured declarative statement can be made today that we didn’t know yesterday: Interstellar is extremely unlikely to win Best Picture.
The Halloween weekend is shaping up to be a tepid yet unpredictable one at the box office. There are three new entries: the Jake Gyllenhall crime pic Nightcrawler, Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep, and the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
None of these newbies is expected to scare up much business. Added to the misery: all holdovers should dip below double digits, assuming current champ Ouija suffers the typical horror flick big drop. That means that my estimates reflect the #1 movie for this weekend will fail to reach past $10M for the first time since September 2012 when horror pic The Possessionmanaged to open first with just over $9 million. Simply put, this is a dull weekend at the multiplex until November heavy hitters Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To, and Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 open.
Depending on what happens, it could be a free for all for the #1 position as the difference between my #1 and #6 are a mere $1.7M apart. For this weekend, I’ll do a rare top ten predictions and we’ll see how it all shakes out:
1. Ouija
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. Nightcrawler
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
3. Fury
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Gone Girl
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. John Wick
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
6. The Book of Life
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)
7. St. Vincent
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
8. Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (representing a drop of 38%)
9. Saw 10th Anniversary
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
10. Before I Go to Sleep
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 24-26)
As expected, the pre-Halloween weekend allowed critically reviled Ouija took open #1 with $19.8 million, under my $24.9M projection. With a tiny budget, however, this will reap a nice cash flow for its studio.
Keanu Reeves saw a better than expected opening for his critically acclaimed actioner John Wick, which debuted second with $14.4 million (above my $11M estimate). The lackluster Cinemascore grade of B, though, portends it probably will fade rather quickly.
Brad Pitt’s Fury dropped to third with $13.3 million in weekend two, under my $14.8M estimate. It’s earned $46M in 10 days.
Gone Girl was fourth in its fourth weekend with $11 million, in line with my $11.6M projection. The hit has earned $124M so far.
The animated feature The Book of Life was fifth in its sophomore frame with $10 million, just below my $11.3M prediction. It’s two week total stands at $30M.
Finally, Bill Murray’s St. Vincent expanded nationwide and took in a respectable $7.7 million, not matching my $8.6M estimate.
It’s been ten years since Saw became a major cult hit that spawned six sequels and kick started the directorial career of James Wan. He would move onto The Conjuring and will soon helm the seventh Fast and Furious picture. Lionsgate is celebrating this milestone by re-releasing the original Saw in theaters for Halloween and hoping audiences make a return trip to the theater to watch Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, and Tobin Bell as Jigsaw.
There’s no doubt that the Halloween timing could help, but I’m rather skeptical crowds will turn out for a film they can easily cue up on cable or on their DVD/Blu Ray player. There is also horror competition with Ouija in its second weekend, even though that title is likely to suffer a large drop.
Rolling out on approximately 1850 screens, I’ll predict Saw fails to gross over $5M in its re-release and that many genre fans will stay at home.
Saw 10th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million
It may star a pair of Oscar winners in Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth, but the thriller Before I Go to Sleep seems likely to be a snoozer at the box office when it opens Friday.
The pic is receiving mixed reviews, but more importantly, it’s received little TV advertisement at all stateside. I’m frankly a little surprised this didn’t go direct to VOD instead of a 1700 screen theatrical debut. If this managed to make over $5 million out of the gate, its production company should consider that a small victory. I’ll predict it doesn’t even get that far.
Before I Go to Sleep opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million
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